First Pitch Arizona Preview: Why BABS?
On Saturday, November 5, I will be making a presentation about BABS at First Pitch Arizona. It will be a 45-minute look at what BABS is, why we need it, some 2016 successes and an early look at 2017. Here is an excerpt from the “why we need it” section.
We can’t integrate risk elements into the numbers
Let’s look at this player. Any idea who it is?
Year AB HR RBI SB BA ---- --- --- --- -- ---- 2012 563 20 73 5 .242 2013 472 12 42 2 .233 2014 457 15 54 1 .212 2015 549 22 82 1 .284 2016 104 7 13 0 .240
This is Mike Moustakas.
How should we project him for 2017? He had a thumb injury at the beginning of last year and then tore his ACL. I’m sure we’ll be following the health reports over the winter and then we’ll mold a projection around those expectations.
A healthy Moustakas will get 550 AB, right? How many AB would you give him next year…
– if all the health reports are positive and he has a solid spring training?
– if all the health reports are positive and he struggles in spring training?
– if the heath reports are cautionary and he only gets into a few spring training games but opens the season in KC?
How are you coming up with these numbers?
Any adjustments that you make to his playing time expectations are completely arbitrary. Nobody – not you, or me or any expert – can tell you how many ABs Moustakas will get next year. But all our information sources have to settle on some number. It’s necessary in order to create statistical projections, dollar values and ADPs. So they are all forced to integrate skill and risk into each player’s projection.
The Broad Assessment Balance Sheet (BABS) says, let’s separate skill from risk. Let’s rate each player based on his underlying skill. Those are his assets. Then let’s look at all the risk factors — the liabilities — separately. Because we don’t know how much impact these liabilities will have on next season’s statistical output. Viewing assets and liabilities separately gives us better control over viewing the potential of each player.
Good luck and a speedy recovery on your upcoming surgery.