Using BABS to unlock depth chart prisoners
Last week’s injury chart told only part of the story when it comes to skills upside. There are many players who are projected for less than full-time at bats, not because of injury issues, but because of their team’s overcrowded depth chart.
These player hold an “M” rating as BABS mid-timers, which obscures the value of the Asset Groups to which they belong. Replace that “M” with an “F” and you often reveal the potential of an elite performance.
The following charts contain some interesting players with good upside who, at most, have some minor injury risk (inj-). They did not appear on last week’s major injury list but are just as interesting, perhaps even moreso. If we should be drafting skill, not roles, then these players offer a boatload of skill. Hopefully, the roles will come.
Starting Pitchers
Starters may open the season as a team’s No. 3, 4 or 5 starter, but any combination of performance and injuries can make those designations moot quickly. I always remember back in 2004, when Johan Santana opened the season as the Twins’ No. 4 starter and ended up going 20-6 with a 2.61 ERA.
| ADP | R$ | PITCHER | Pos | Tm | PT | Er | K | Sv | Er | Inj | Ex | ||
| 178 | $7 | Urias,Julio | SP | LA | M | ER | KK | EX | |||||
| 76 | $16 | Martinez,Carlos | SP | STL | M | ER | k | ||||||
| 187 | $7 | Devenski,Christopher | SP | HOU | M | e | KK | e | |||||
| 386 | $(1) | Pineda,Michael | SP | NYY | M | e | KK | inj- | |||||
| 399 | $(1) | Liriano,Francisco | SP | TOR | M | e | KK | ||||||
| 105 | $12 | Gsellman,Robert | SP | NYM | M | e | k | inj- | EX | ||||
| 108 | $12 | Pomeranz,Drew | SP | BOS | M | e | k | ||||||
| 126 | $10 | Triggs,Andrew | SP | OAK | M | e | k | EX | |||||
| 218 | $5 | Greinke,Zack | SP | ARI | M | e | k | inj- | |||||
| 233 | $4 | Gausman,Kevin | SP | BAL | M | e | k | inj- | |||||
| 273 | $3 | Happ,J.A. | SP | TOR | M | e | k | ||||||
| 288 | $2 | Manaea,Sean | SP | OAK | M | e | k | e | |||||
| 588 | $(5) | Rodon,Carlos | SP | CHW | M | e | k | inj- |
Some of these pitchers are just in crowded rotations, and since it is rare for a team to boast more than one or two 200-IP arms, they are relegated to lesser projected totals.
Julio Urias is not yet old enough to vote, so his innings will likely be limited this year. Teams will say this in March; on most occasions, the song will change if they are battling into October. But the full-time version of his mid-timer Asset Group has names like Bumgarner, Kluber and Carrasco.
Carlos Martinez is perhaps one good start away from moving into the full-time tier, where he becomes a comparable talent to Arrieta, Lester and Hendricks.
Chris Devenski faces a Houston rotation already six-men deep; his expectation includes the probability of extended bullpen work, which cuts into his innings. Michael Pineda has the chops, but not the numbers, which will likely suppress his usage. And Francisco Liriano is currently Toronto’s No. 5, but his near-vintage second half performance – capped by a 2.03 September ERA – could open up more innings. All three are comparables to names like Sale, Verlander and Hamels.
If the (e,k) group – eight men deep – fell into more innings, they could be Duffy, Cole and Stroman.
Position Players
In all the cases below, think about the players who are blocking them on the depth chart.
| BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Av | Inj | Ex | |||
| 404 | $(1) | Murphy,Tom | 2 | COL | M | P+ | a | EX | |||||
| 476 | $(3) | Conforto,Michael | o7 | NYM | M | P+ | a | e | |||||
| 489 | $(3) | Rosario,Eddie | o78 | MIN | M | p | s | a | – | inj- | e | ||
| 621 | $(5) | Benintendi,Andrew | o7 | BOS | M | p | AV | inj- | EX | ||||
| 352 | $0 | Dyson,Jarrod | o89 | SEA | M | S+ | a | ||||||
| 360 | $0 | Naquin,Tyler | o8 | CLE | M | PW | a | EX | |||||
| 403 | $(1) | Broxton,Keon | 8o | MIL | M | PW | S+ | AV | EX | ||||
| 472 | $(3) | Revere,Ben | o87 | LAA | M | SB | AV | – | inj- | ||||
| 487 | $(3) | Healy,Ryon | 5 | OAK | M | p | a | EX | |||||
| 505 | $(3) | Wieters,Matt | 2 | WAS | M | p | a | inj- | |||||
| 557 | $(4) | Valencia,Danny | 5o9 | SEA | M | p | a | ||||||
| 600 | $(5) | Moreland,Mitch | 3 | BOS | M | p | a | ||||||
| 621 | $(5) | Dickerson,Alex | o7 | SD | M | p | a | EX | |||||
| 624 | $(5) | Flores,Wilmer | 53 | NYM | M | p | a | inj- | |||||
| 650 | $(6) | Lind,Adam | 3 | WAS | M | p | a | ||||||
| 667 | $(6) | Mondesi,Raul | 4 | KC | M | p | S+ | AV | EX | ||||
| 453 | $(2) | Alvarez,Pedro | 0 | FAA | M | P+ | |||||||
| 999 | $(10) | Grandal,Yasmani | 2 | LA | M | P+ | * | inj- | |||||
| 999 | $(10) | Pederson,Joc | 8o | LA | M | P+ | * | ||||||
| 999 | $(10) | Carter,Chris | 3 | NYY | M | P+ | * | ||||||
| 456 | $(2) | Aoki,Norichika | o7 | HOU | M | s | AV | ||||||
| 195 | $6 | Margot,Manuel | o | SD | M | SB | a | EX | |||||
| 442 | $(2) | Davis,Rajai | o87 | OAK | M | S+ | |||||||
| 604 | $(5) | Jankowski,Travis | o89 | SD | M | S+ | e | ||||||
| 275 | $3 | Valbuena,Luis | 5 | LAA | M | PW | * | inj- | |||||
| 299 | $2 | Park,Byung Ho | 3 | MIN | M | PW | inj- | EX | |||||
| 325 | $1 | Haniger,Mitch | o8 | SEA | M | PW | EX | ||||||
| 662 | $(6) | Gyorko,Jedd | 456 | STL | M | PW | |||||||
| 329 | $1 | Chisenhall,Lonnie | o9 | CLE | M | s | a | ||||||
| 355 | $0 | Molina,Yadier | 2 | STL | M | AV | |||||||
| 390 | $(1) | Upton,Melvin | o78 | TOR | M | p | SB | AV | |||||
| 420 | $(1) | Jones,JaCoby | 5 | DET | M | p | SB | AV | EX |
Starting with catchers, “mid-timing” is usually the best we can expect when it comes to playing time. Still, if you are going to invest, target the skills. Matt Wieters and Yasmany Grandal are no-brainers, Tommy Murphy is a popular Colorado sleeper and Yadier Molina might have enough left in the tank for one final swan song.
More interesting is the upside potential of players like Michael Conforto (pictured), Andrew Benentendi and Tyler Naquin. None of these are surprises, but the asset groups they each aspire to are exciting. Give Conforto the plate appearances and he rises into the same (P+,a) group occupied by Story and Stanton. Benentendi rises into the (p,AV) group with names like Cano, Posey and Braun. And Naquin rises into the (PW,a) group along with Gattis, Longoria and Bradley.
Admittedly, some of these players have platoon limitations, but the skills are still interesting no matter how much playing time they get.
Part-timers
The skills assessment for part-timers is a little more fuzzy because of the small sample sizes, but there are still names to tuck away on reserve lists or in mega-deep leagues.
| BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Av | Inj | Ex | |||
| 458 | $(2) | Tellez,Rowdy | 3 | TOR | P+ | AV | * | EX | |||||
| 318 | $1 | Cozens,Dylan | 9 | PHI | P+ | s | EX | ||||||
| 438 | $(2) | Jaso,John | 3 | PIT | p | AV | * | inj- | |||||
| 548 | $(4) | Bellinger,Cody | 3 | LA | PW | a | * | EX | |||||
| 554 | $(4) | Choi,Ji-Man | 3o7 | NYY | PW | a | * | inj- | EX | ||||
| 566 | $(4) | Segedin,Robert | o | LA | PW | a | EX | ||||||
| 578 | $(5) | Alcantara,Arismendy | o | CIN | PW | S+ | AV | EX | |||||
| 598 | $(5) | Tapia,Raimel | o | COL | SB | AV | – | EX |
Digging deeper, these are all still depth chart prisoners waiting to break out. Is there any more of an interesting player than Rowdy Tellez, blocked at 1B only really by Justin Smoak on the Blue Jays depth chart? This is an interesting mix of old and young players who look like they possess highly rosterable skills.
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Ron,
As you prepare to publish your final BABS lists for this year, is there any thought to presenting these “M” players right below the “F” players within their skill sets. For example, list Urias immediately below Bumgarner, Kluber, Carrasco with their PT designations clearly marked. In many cases, a player with a PT designation of “M” is preferable to a player with lesser skill sets. Just curious if you have considered this.
This is an interesting point that I have been grappling with this winter. In the first iteration of the charts, the “M” and “F” players were listed pretty far apart. It was apparent to me that there were several full-timers that I would NOT take before taking a chance on a better-skilled player who might play themselves into more PT. As a result, those relative asset groups were listed closer together in this most recent update, particularly the starting pitchers.
However, I don’t think that the “M” and “F” players should be listed completely together, even tiered within the same asset group. Playing time means something. MLB teams set their depth charts for how they expect the PT to shake out. Sure, that might change, but all we can go on is what these teams intend to do. And in many circumstances, my team might need a player more likely to get 500 AB over a better-skilled one because I need the counting stats that only AB can provide (runs, RBIs). Over the course of the season, the in-season BABS ratings will reflect the actual usage, but for now, we do need some type of separation.
Hi Ron– will the final babs be out around or before march 28th.
all looks promising so far.
lou
Target date is March 31. Maybe late on the 30th. There will be an update on the 17th too.
Ron,
In a February article you compared players’ ADP to a BABS value ADP. Where can I find BABS ADP?
They are on the master charts. The orange bars represent 50-60 picks in tiers. That is about as precise as BABS is willing to go. The green bars are dollar values in $10 ranges.
Who is ahead of Benintendi on Boston’s depth chart?
Nobody. But he is unproven over a full season, and if any other reserve OFers are going to usurp some PT, they won’t likely be taking it from Betts or Bradley. Expectations are tempered for his PT.
Thanks for the reply. Is this the reason Odorizzi gets an ‘M’ grade- he’s the most vulnerable of Tampa’s starters?
Odorizzi is projected for under 180 IP. That’s the cut-off between and “F” and “M”.
Hi Ron, I note a major difference in Carlos Martinez’s ADP and value from your February Starters release to this analysis from ADP 76 to ADP 226. Has his ranking changed that much?
Some bad data got in there. It’s been corrected.
Going with the BABs method, if you were going to do the “sheet of paper”, would you remove any player that does not have at least 1 positive attribute from consideration on draft day…
i.e.
454 $(2) Hardy,J.J. 6 BAL F INJ
456 $(2) Mercer,Jordy 6 PIT F
They offer F for playing time but no other tangible asset. Or for pitching
299 $2 Davies,Zachary SP MIL M e
299 $2 Tillman,Chris SP BAL M inj-
324 $1 Musgrove,Joe SP HOU M EX
Zach Davies is getting a lot of hype out there as a Kyle Hendrick’s doppleganger, etc
I have 3 drafts the weekend of the 18th so looking to pair down the sheets a bunch.
Thank you.
Playing time is an asset, and does have value (runs, RBIs, SOME strikeouts, etc.). Once you’ve exhausted players who have positive assets in the skills categories, you can default to those who will get playing time. Just keep the liabilities in view.
March 31st, really? there will be ton of drafts before that date, My annual keeper draft is on the 26th, that seems very late to me, wasn’t last year was much earlier?
There is an full master list in the CONTROL CENTER (https://babsbaseball.com/members-control-center/) right now. It is perfectly fine for drafting. There will be updates on March 17 and 31. The beauty of BABS is that there is no need for major updates; the ratings cover such broad ranges that it takes a massive change (injury, playing time) to move them. Those changes will be reflected in updates, but the current list is perfectly fine to use now.
The Updates on 17th and 31st, will they include AL/NL Only?
The one on the 17th will.
I normally do my own draft inflation calculations so it was nice to see the calculator you have here—but it’s not broken down by Pitchers/Hitters. I’ve noticed some discrepancies in some leagues where pitching inflation is 5% and hitting inflation is 15% (longer contracts = more money; pitchers don’t normally get those longer ones so they get value contracts, thus more inflation). I was wondering your two cents on inflation and whether or not it matters to break it down by offense and pitching.
I have my first NL only draft this weekend and it took about 3 hours to separate the NL and the AL. Not too overwhelming but my 2c for next year would be to have an AL and NL split for the first BABS report. Not a huge issue, I’ll be back next year regardless—but it would go a long way. I’m super excited for my first two drafts this week and I’ll be using BABS as my primary cheatsheet and strategy!!!
It is not a bad idea to do separate inflation calculations. Depends if the inflation rates are typically different in your league. Note that we will be posting separate AL/NL charts on March 17.
The team names are listed in BABS and if readers use the filters in Excel, showing only one league takes only a few minutes. I’d write out how to do it, but I’m not at my computer to look at Excel. Googling how to use filters in Excel may help, and being able to sort by any column makes using BABS much easier. If you just want to see names of base stealers providing BA help, that or any other sorting just takes a few clicks.
I am a new member as of 3/14/2017. When I go to the Control Center, I am unable to access the Master List. Our draft is coming up soon, 3/24/17. Please e-mail me a copy of the Master List at daytoncarpenter7@gmail.com. Thanks!
Invest 15 minutes in an online tutorial in using the SORT filter in Excel. Then, select the AL or NL teams as your SORT (+3 mins), and you are good to go. No need to do it manually if you have access to a spreadsheet.
AL/NL reports are online now.
Ron-
Not to throw cold water on your great work, but isn’t BABS really a rehashing of the MM Code, just with different symbols? I think BABS is a bit simpler than MM, and the whole thing makes a lot of sense, but its pretty much the same system, no?
That being said, I think I speak for all of your readers when I say that we appreciate how hard you think about this stuff.
I’ve made no secret of the fact that BABS is the next step after Mayberry. But it’s an important step. MM was still too granular. BABS adds a more structured system of benchmarks for assets and liabilities. And perhaps the most important part – the BABS master lists tie in market value in a way that MM never did – and THAT is the secret to putting the system to its best use.
Mayberry still has value, particularly is distinguishing between players in the bottom half of the talent pool. BABS looks at those players and thinks, “Ick, drek.”