The Need for Speed

In the upcoming edition of the Baseball Forecaster, you will read about the ever-changing shifts in the statistical landscape. By now, it’s common knowledge that home runs left ballparks at historic rates last year, and stolen bases took the opposite path. If you were to assume that these trends will persist, then there is one conclusion you could draw:

It’s time to stockpile steals.

Personally, I don’t know that this is the appropriate path, because history has shown that the underlying statistical environment can turn on a dime. But for 2017 planning purposes, we have to start somewhere.

So I thought it might be interesting to try to draft a competitive team while hoarding bags. I had the chance to do that this week as the Fantasy Baseball Guide ran their annual draft. The full results will be published in their spring magazine.

Here is a quick summary of my picks. I was seeded No. 2.

Mike Trout went first, so I was left with the spoils. While recency bias favors Mookie Betts next, I chose Jose Altuve (pictured). I suspect that he will slide to the No. 3 ranking once ADPs start compiling, but his batting average and speed have a very high floor.

When the draft swung back to me at the end of Round 2, I was surprised to find Jonathan Villar still available. I snagged him. Still plenty of power out there but I did not want to fall too far behind, so I took Yoenis Cespedes next.

The first turning point of the draft came in Round 4. Yes, I already had a ton of steals, but I could not resist a batter who had posted a .376 OBP from August on. So I took Billy Hamilton. We are neither playing out this mock draft or thinking in terms of tradeable commodities, but boy would I like the chance to be in this league.

Five of my next seven picks were pitchers as I started building my staff — Aroldis Chapman, David Price, Michael Fulmer, Kenta Maeda and Ken Giles — using strong-armed relievers to provide a cushion for some of the more lightweight starters. I surrounded these picks with a few more power bats: Willson Contreras, Jake Lamb and Max Kepler.

Admittedly, I went a little bag-crazy at this point as I still saw a bunch of prime base-stealers available. Between Rounds 13 and 21, I added Tim Anderson, Ender Inciarte and Roman Quinn. I did not completely ignore power, but the bats I did roster all have some question marks. Still, a dash of health could mean good things for Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda. Mike Zunino and Michael Conforto (Round 22!) rounded out my offense.

The rest of my pitchers were Julio Urias, Luke Weaver, Joe Ross and Matt Andriese.

The highly preliminary projections in the Baseball Forecaster have me with 263 stolen bases. Yeah, maybe a tad too much. But in scanning the other rosters, I see only one other team with five elite speedsters, a few with three or four and at least a couple that punted speed completely.

At least I’d win one category.