Stock Up on Speedy Shortstops
In this speed-starved world, shortstop is the position where you can plant a flag in the scarce SB category, even late. This position has gotten stronger in recent years, but the current upper tier is composed of players with lesser experience and a few health issues, and thus, wider error bars. Power sources dominate the top 5, but then it’s all speed and batting average. Duel asset commodities run 20 deep so there is a bunch of interesting names to choose from.
Here are the BABS ratings for the shortstops who will potentially provide some positive value to your team:
| MARKET | Assets | Liabilities | ||||||||||
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Av | Inj | Ex | |
| 140 | $9 | Peraza,Jose | CIN | F | S+ | AV | – | EX | ||||
| 19 | $29 | Seager,Corey | LA | F | PW | AV | e | |||||
| 31 | $24 | Story,Trevor | COL | F | P+ | a | INJ | EX | ||||
| 17 | $30 | Correa,Carlos | HOU | F | p | AV | ||||||
| 149 | $9 | Tulowitzki,Troy | TOR | F | p | AV | inj- | |||||
| 174 | $7 | Anderson,Tim | CHW | F | S+ | a | – | EX | ||||
| 302 | $2 | Owings,Christopher | ARI | F | S+ | a | – | INJ | ||||
| 161 | $8 | Andrus,Elvis | TEX | F | SB | AV | ||||||
| 147 | $9 | Diaz,Aledmys | STL | F | p | a | inj- | e | ||||
| 242 | $4 | Crawford,Brandon | SF | F | p | a | ||||||
| 272 | $3 | Cabrera,Asdrubal | NYM | F | p | a | inj- | |||||
| 30 | $24 | Lindor,Francisco | CLE | F | s | AV | ||||||
| 354 | $0 | Simmons,Andrelton | LAA | F | s | AV | inj- | |||||
| 21 | $28 | Villar,Jonathan | MIL | F | SB | a | ||||||
| 189 | $6 | Swanson,Dansby | ATL | F | SB | a | EX | |||||
| 264 | $3 | Arcia,Orlando | MIL | F | SB | a | EX | |||||
| 330 | $1 | Escobar,Alcides | KC | F | SB | a | – | |||||
| 205 | $6 | Semien,Marcus | OAK | F | p | s | ||||||
| 27 | $26 | Bogaerts,Xander | BOS | F | s | a | ||||||
| 245 | $4 | Gregorius,Didi | NYY | F | s | a | ||||||
| 135 | $10 | Russell,Addison | CHC | F | p | |||||||
| 155 | $8 | Miller,Bradley | TAM | F | p | |||||||
| 367 | $(0) | Polanco,Jorge | MIN | F | a | EX | ||||||
| 529 | $(4) | Hechavarria,Adeiny | MIA | F | s | |||||||
| 367 | $(0) | Espinosa,Danny | LAA | F | p | AV | ||||||
| 382 | $(0) | Cozart,Zack | CIN | F | inj- | |||||||
| 453 | $(2) | Hardy,J.J. | BAL | F | INJ | |||||||
| 471 | $(3) | Mercer,Jordy | PIT | F | ||||||||
| 470 | $(2) | Iglesias,Jose | DET | M | a | inj- | ||||||
| 607 | $(5) | Ramirez,Alexei | FAA | M | a | |||||||
| 611 | $(5) | Aybar,Erick | SD | M | a | inj- | ||||||
| 528 | $(4) | Barreto,Franklin | OAK | s | AV | EX | ||||||
| 311 | $2 | Marte,Ketel | ARI | SB | a | inj- | e | |||||
| 347 | $0 | Galvis,Freddy | PHI | M | ||||||||
| 476 | $(3) | Crawford,J.P. | PHI | M | * | EX | ||||||
| 574 | $(4) | Escobar,Eduardo | MIN | M | ||||||||
| 590 | $(5) | Sardinas,Luis | SD | M | e | |||||||
| 631 | $(5) | Beckham,Tim | TAM | p | e | |||||||
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help)
LIABILITIES: Av (Batting Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience)
If I asked you to name the top 5 shortstops, I suspect that Jose Peraza would not remotely come to mind. He shouldn’t. Moreover, he doesn’t need to. Being the only shortstop with both extreme speed and significant batting average, he is a juicy target in this scarce SB environment. At his ADP/price or even with a slight push, he would be a nice get, even with the Experience risk. I’d gladly take on that risk for $9.
The more common names follow. Carlos Correa (p,AV), pictured, is still showing some inflated value, though he probably owns that upside. While BABS is not recognizing sustainable speed (maybe she’s wrong, who knows?), the rest of his stat line is indistinguishable from Troy Tulowitzki. If you don’t need to worry about those 10 steals, Tulo provides ~$20, nine-round savings.
Tim Anderson and Chris Owings (S+,a) are the other extreme speedsters on the board but both have risks that make them deeper picks in the draft. The 130-spot difference is at a point where most drafters are just filling needs, so I don’t view that variance as important.
The (p,a) asset group is a similarly deep round target. Aledmys Diaz gets a little more recency bias love, but they’re all decent later picks.
Francisco Lindor’s (s,AV) high ground ball rate and hard contact deficiency have suppressed his BABS power assessment, making him look more like Andrelton Simmons, as ridiculous as it sounds. But take a minute and look at the stats.
The (SB,a) group is deeper and has some very nice profit options for those who choose not to ride the Jonathan Villar bandwagon. I’ve taken Dansby Swanson in several leagues.
Xander Bogaerts (s,a) = Didi Gregorius (s,a)? Heresy! But for want of a half dozen steals and 20 points of batting average – essentially, a rounding error – it’s the same skills set. Yes, you’ll also give up a bunch of runs and RBIs, but 15 rounds and $20 is quite a substantial discount.
Behind the full-timers, Ketel Marte was a sleeper pick just a year ago and still owns those interesting skills, even if he has no clear path to playing time. Next month, I have a “No Path To Playing Time” column planned to show how nonsensical that five-word phrase is.
Curious as to your thoughts as having Peraza with F status playing time. Does he unseat Cozart (F status as well), or having OF eligibility give him the status between multiple positions? Maybe it’s because it’s early and you will change a status as spring training shakes out? Thanks!
Hi Ron, Just signed up for a membership and have been paging through your book and BABS Roster Grid and am very intrigued so far…I am in a weird 9×9 H2H league (H, Runs, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BA, SB, Walks)(IP, W, L, CG, Saves, K, Walks, ERA, WHIP) and am trying to figure out how to incorporate stats like 2B, 3B, CG, etc into putting together a roster grid. Any thoughts for me on that?
In today’s “speed-starved world”, why is the p/a cohort higher in the hierarchy/rankings than the SB/a or s/a cohorts?
Because power and batting skill are still the primary skills drivers. But it’s speed that lifts players like Peraza, Anderson and Owings as high as they are, whereas they would be nowhere near that level in other rankings.
Love the book and the site. I noticed that you have a few guys in there that have both batting Av as an asset yet a – as a liability. Could you explain that?
Thanks
The “-” is to indicate they are a plate patience liability – less than 5% walk rate.
I guess you saw the future now with Brandon Phillips being traded, Peraza likely slides into 2B gaining that position eligibility as well I’d assume?
Thanks Ron. So when you say in the book that you should have no less than X assets and no more than Y liabilities, do the * and – count as either?
And for those players (like A Escobar), does his a count as an asset and the “-” as a liability?
We’d assume, yes.
No. The OBP modifiers — * and – — are not counted against your Asset and Liabilities budget. Only major skills and major liability categories.
Ron, if Xander hits 20+ home runs again this season will he get tagged with a “p” next season? I want to target him in my league but was a bit discouraged after reading the Forecaster’s remarks on him. Does the Green Monster make up for his supposed lack of power? Is that a good safety net to have 81 times a season? It seems like raw power is all that is keeping him from being a superstar, but do you see any signs of improvement?
To add to this, I noticed a 10% increase on pulled balls from 2015 to 2016 so that bodes well for some cheap homers even if he maintains his 11% hr/f, right?
A question about liabilities and a budget.
There doesn’t seem to be any quality measure for a liability. So would BABS tell us to treat Tulo’s inj- and Simmons inj- equally?
Should Peraza’s EX liability be the same too?
Trying to quantify my “budget” for risk.
Jim T
Not necessarily. In fact, a much better measure of power growth is an increase in opposite field HRs. In any case, BABS doesn’t care how many HRs Xander hits – she doesn’t look at HRs. She looks at underlying power metrics, and his have been mediocre so far.
The definitions of how the ratings are determined is in Chapter 4 of The BABS Project. Each rating covers a fairly wide range, so there will be some wiggle room.
Thanks for clarifying! This helps.
Wondering where Gyorko fits in here with his unique skillset and triple position eligibility….
His skills would slot above between Marcus Semien and Xander Bogaerts. His position eligibilities might elevate him a bit.
Hi ron. i love the Babs concept. i has really helped me rethink my mindset going into drafts. I’m a little stupified By machado’s low Babs rating though. 35 hrs in 15 and 37 hrs last year while ticking .300 both years (.286 and .294) with a mid 3 obp. why is he only PW? and votto who always hits between 20 and 29 hrs is a P+? What am I missing?
I love votto, but i don’t see why he is higher than machado in power. Or why Machado is considered significantly overvalued at 11. It seems machado would be P+, AV, and borderline *. Not to mention coming into his prime years… or one would think anyway. I’m sure there is a metric that I’m missing, but I’m really curious to know what it is. Thanks for a new way to think about fantasy baseball.
i think i figured it out. Rbi’s, runs, Jump in AVE?
Nope. BABS ratings are all percentage plays based on underlying skills. BABS does not look at HRs, batting average, etc. Machado’s hard hit ball rate is below the threshold for extreme power while Votto’s is above. Votto is just a few more fly balls away from bigger HR totals. That all said, Machado is VERY close; another season like 2016 will likely lift him into P+ territory.
I noticed Segura was not on this list. I know he offers speed and I also know that Seattle doesn’t run so did that get him off or just a simple “Omission de Shandler”?
Segura is listed with the 2Bmen because that is his primary eligibility, regardless of where he is scheduled to play in 2017.
What is your general feeling about Swanson,Dansby? I am thinking of taking him in a mixed auction league.
He’s a late-rounder. Not going to give you a lot of numbers, but he won’t hurt your BA either.
Ron – is there a general chat area to ask you general questions? Or just do it per post like this? I know the new discussion area was for all of us not just you so did not want it to get lost there.
I am now taking the BABS spreadsheet – treating her very carefully – and basically leaving everyone in worksheet (mixed, al, nl) but then adding a column for the guys I want to target and I am eliminating everyone with a liability in the hopes I get a team with next to zero liabilities. Does this mean I might miss out on someone having a breakout year? Yes. Does this mean I mitigate my risk on losing value to liabilities – yes.
Have you ever tried that before? Basically, throwing all of the liabilities persons out the window unless it is too good of a deal to pass up?
Thanks
Would prefer moving discussion onto the forums – for your benefit, actually. Others may have opinions that are just as valid as mine, if not moreso.
In answer to your question – no, I have not tried it (maybe someone else has!)