RSOB Chapter 6H: Relief Pitchers

New to “Ron Shandler’s Other Book”? Read the Introduction. 

In the eternal quest for the elusive SAVE, it’s all about Skill and Opportunity, right? If you have enough Skill, the Opportunity will come. Well, it’s not that simple.

Opportunity can come from a variety of sources, from skill, to depth chart attrition, to outwardly random managerial whim. That’s the case with every role. But the fickle nature of Opportunity is perhaps most notable when it comes to closers. And since the only real value that closers have is in generating saves, a lost Opportunity can be fatal.

So fantasy leaguers don’t typically invest a lot here. That’s smart.

This following list includes all the prime candidates to see saves plus other relievers who have, at minimum, a dual-asset skill set. The non-save pitchers higher on the list are the better options for “roster filler that won’t hurt you” and could potentially help your ratios. Often, when a starter goes down, it’s better to replace him with a high-skilled reliever than a Brett Oberholtzer.

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), ER (ERA Potential), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves), Pk (Ballpark), Rg (Regression). LIABILITIES: ER (ERA), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience), Nw (New team), Pk (Ballpark), Ag (Age), Rg (Regression)

Here is an insightful chart. These are the pitchers who were ranked as the Top 5 closers coming into each of the last four years, the pitchers who actually finished Top 5 in saves, and their ADP coming into that season:

2015              2014              2013              2012
----              ----              ----              ----
ADP TOP 5
Chapman           Kimbrel           Kimbrel           Kimbrel
Kimbrel           Jansen            Papelbon          Storen
Holland           Holland           Rodney            Axford
Robertson         Rosenthal         Motte             Rivera
Melancon          Chapman           Nathan            Papelbon

2015              2014              2013              2012
----              ----              ----              ----
ACTUAL (ADP)
Melancon (80)     Rodney (169)      Johnson (124)      Johnson (**)
Rosenthal (107)   Kimbrel (46)      Kimbrel (29)       Rodney (**)
Familia (465)     Holland (67)      Holland (125)      Kimbrel (56)
Boxberger (214)   Rosenthal (75)    Rivera (102)       Motte  (182)
Street  (121)     Jansen (62)       Nathan (100)       Soriano (221)

(**) Not in top 300

Every projected Top 5 pitcher had an ADP less than 100. But the only season where top 100-ranked closers dominated the final ranking was 2014… if you allow for the 169th ranked Fernando Rodney leading the pack.

The takeaway is that chasing saves leaders at the draft table is a fool’s quest. The best you can do is pay for current opportunity and skills. Then leave yourself flexibility to dart and weave during the season as the expected 40 percent turnover in closers takes its toll on your roster.

Here are the top 10 ranked closers in this year’s ADPs:

62. Wade Davis
64. Aroldis Chapman
66. Craig Kimbrel
71. Kenley Jansen
83. Jeurys Familia
84. Trevor Rosenthal
88. Mark Melancon
91. Kenneth Giles
93. Zach Britton
98. Cody Allen

This spread of 36 ranking spots equates to about $5 in Rotisserie value ($13-$18) and nearly matches the top 10 names on the BABS list. Buy any one; the risk of going belly-up will be the same. Just ask Greg Holland, and Joe Nathan before him.

And remember that, despite owning the skills and the role NOW, top-ranked Wade Davis has never saved even 20 games in a season. Ditto for 8th-ranked Ken Giles.

Since a closer’s value is in his saves, the only way you can get a real edge is if you can get into the head of the managers and know whether it’s going to be Antonio Osuna or Drew Storen, A.J. Ramos or Carter Capps, or Jeremy Jeffress or Will Smith. And you need to find that out before anyone else in your league.

A common question is whether to roster a lower-skilled pitcher who could get saves versus a higher-skilled pitcher who is not currently in line for saves. Do you roster Dellin Betances or Brad Ziegler? Darren O’Day or Fernando Rodney?

Given the fickle nature of saves, you need to cover your risk as much as possible. That means, if roster space and cost permit, you draft both. Never overpay, but both should come at a discount compared to a full-time, high-skilled closer. So if you can get one-and-one for around $15 or less, or 20th round or later, then it’s good to cover some of your risk.