RSOB Chapter 6F: Outfielders

February 12, 2016

New to “Ron Shandler’s Other Book”? Read the Introduction. 

In the outfield, you can pretty much have your pick of whatever mix of Assets you’d like. There are plenty of skills, whether you need power, speed or batting average. However, be careful because there is also a good smattering of Liabilities. About 40 percent of the top 40 names have some injury risk. About 20 percent don’t have enough experience to be fully trusted. But this is still the place to bulk up on big numbers. 

ASSETS LIABILITIES
BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Av Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg
Trout,Mike 8o LAA F P+ s AV
McCutchen,Andrew 8o PIT F P+ AV
Harper,Bryce o9 WAS F P+ AV inj-
Stanton,Giancarlo o9 MIA F P+ AV inj-
Marte,Starling o7 PIT F p SB AV
Blackmon,Charlie o8 COL F p SB AV
Pollock,A.J. 8o ARI F p SB AV
Betts,Mookie o8 BOS F p SB AV e
Upton,Justin o7 DET F P+ s a
Springer,George o9 HOU F PW SB a INJ e
Revere,Ben o78 WAS F S+ AV Nw
Jones,Adam 8o BAL F PW AV
Cespedes,Yoenis o78 NYM F PW AV Rg
Conforto,Michael o7 NYM F PW AV EX
Dickerson,Corey o7 TAM F PW AV inj- e
Braun,Ryan o9 MIL F PW AV INJ
Bautista,Jose o90 TOR F P+ a
Kemp,Matt o9 SD F P+ a
Martinez,J.D. o9 DET F P+ a
Davis,Khristopher o7 MIL F P+ a inj-
Cruz,Nelson o90 SEA F P+ a Ag Rg
Gonzalez,Carlos 9o COL F P+ a inj- Rg
Gomez,Carlos 8o HOU F PW s a Rg
Peralta,David o7 ARI F p AV e
Pence,Hunter o9 SF F p AV INJ
Burns,Billy 8o OAK F S+ a e
Ozuna,Marcell o8 MIA F PW a
Soler,Jorge o9 CHC F PW a inj- e
Beltran,Carlos o9 NYY F PW a inj- Ag
Byrd,Marlon o79 FAN F PW a inj- Ag
Cain,Lorenzo o8 KC F SB AV
Inciarte,Ender o978 ATL F SB AV Nw
Span,Denard 8o SF F SB AV INJ Nw
Calhoun,Kole 9o LAA F p a
Choo,Shin-Soo o9 TEX F p a
Gordon,Alex o7 KC F p a inj-
Piscotty,Stephen o7 STL F p a EX
Ramirez,Hanley o7 BOS F p a inj- Rg
Puig,Yasiel 9o LA F p a INJ Rg
Holliday,Matt o7 STL F p a INJ Ag
Parra,Gerardo o978 COL F s AV Pk Nw
Eaton,Adam 8o CHW F s AV
Heyward,Jason o9 CHC F s AV Nw
Yelich,Christian o78 MIA F s AV inj-
Aoki,Norichika o7 SEA F s AV inj- Nw
Bruce,Jay o9 CIN F P+
Granderson,Curtis o9 NYM F P+
Grichuk,Randal o78 STL F P+ inj- e
Fowler,Dexter 8o FAN F p SB
Herrera,Odubel 8o PHI F SB a e
Kiermaier,Kevin o8 TAM F SB a e
Ellsbury,Jacoby 8o NYY F SB a 0 inj- Rg
Cabrera,Melky o7 CHW F AV
Markakis,Nick o9 ATL F AV
Hamilton,Billy 8o CIN F S+ -AV
Rosario,Eddie o79 MIN F p s e
Altherr,Aaron o7 PHI F p s EX
Jackson,Austin o89 FAN F s a
Pillar,Kevin o8 TOR F s a e
Polanco,Gregory o9 PIT F s a e
Pagan,Angel 8o SF F s a inj-
Ethier,Andre o97 LA M p AV
Bradley,Jackie o98 BOS F p e Rg
Garcia,Avisail o9 CHW F a inj-
Jay,Jon o8 SD F a inj- Nw
Castillo,Rusney o97 BOS F a EX
Kim,Hyun-Soo 7 BAL F a EX
Smith,Seth o790 SEA M PW a
Hamilton,Josh o7 TEX M PW a INJ
Werth,Jayson o7 WAS M PW a Rg INJ Ag
Coghlan,Chris o79 CHC M p s a
Reddick,Josh o9 OAK M p s a
Mahtook,Mikie o TAM M P+ s EX
Gardner,Brett o78 NYY F SB
Deshields Jr.,Delino o87 TEX F SB -AV e
Ackley,Dustin o78 NYY M p a
Rasmus,Colby o798 HOU M P+
Duvall,Adam o7 CIN M P+ EX
Pederson,Joc 8o LA M P+ -AV e
Kepler,Max 9o MIN P p SB AV EX
Nieuwenhuis,Kirk o7 MIL P P+ s a e Nw
Upton,Melvin 8o SD M p SB -AV inj-
Davis,Rajai o87 CLE M SB a Nw
Maybin,Cameron 8o DET M SB a Nw
Brantley,Michael o78 CLE M AV INJ
Buxton,Byron 8o MIN M S+ inj- EX
Young,Chris o97 BOS M PW Nw
Santana,Domingo o98 MIL M PW -AV EX
Orlando,Paulo o97 KC M p s EX
Taylor,Michael o87 WAS M p s -AV e
Rios,Alex 9o KC M s a
Guyer,Brandon o798 TAM M s a inj- e
Phillips,Brett 8 MIL P p SB a EX
Sweeney,Darnell o PHI M p -AV EX
Souza,Steven o9 TAM M p INJ EX
Reimold,Nolan o7 BAL M p -AV INJ
Dyson,Jarrod o87 KC P S+ a
Murphy,David o70 FAA M a
Jankowski,Travis o8 SD P S+ a EX
Raburn,Ryan 0o FAA P PW a
Lambo,Andrew o OAK P PW a INJ EX
Brinson,Lewis 8 TEX P p s a EX
Gallo,Joey o7 TEX P P+ s -AV EX
Venable,Will o879 FAA M SB
Bourn,Michael o87 ATL M SB inj-
Pompey,Dalton o8 TOR M SB EX
De Aza,Alejandro o79 NYM P p a
Gutierrez,Franklin o7 SEA P P+
Ruggiano,Justin o7 TEX P P+ Nw
O Brien,Peter o7 ARI P P+ EX
Blash,Jabari 7 SD P P+ -AV EX
Parker,Jarrett o SF P P+ -AV EX
Walker,Adam 7 MIN P P+ -AV EX
Lagares,Juan o8 NYM M s
Martin,Leonys 8o SEA M s Rg -AV Nw
Bourjos,Peter 8o PHI M s -AV Nw
Hicks,Aaron o8 NYY M s inj- e Nw
Jennings,Desmond o7 TAM M s INJ
Stubbs,Drew o87 FAA P p SB -AV
Pham,Thomas o8 STL P p SB inj- EX
Broxton,Keon o MIL P p SB -AV EX
Zimmer,Bradley 8 CLE P p SB -AV EX
Blanco,Gregor o879 SF P SB a
Brito,Socrates o ARI P SB a EX
Margot,Manuel 8 SD P SB a EX
Almonte,Abraham o8 CLE M e
Quinn,Roman 8 PHI P S+ EX
Jones,James o8 TEX P S+ -AV Nw
Nava,Daniel o9 LAA M -AV inj-
Gore,Terrance o7 KC P S+ -AV EX
Saunders,Michael o TOR M -AV INJ
Crisp,Coco o7 OAK M -AV INJ Ag
Jensen,Kyle 9 ARI P PW -AV EX
Judge,Aaron 9 NYY P PW -AV EX
Adams,Lane 8 NYY P p s -AV EX
Shuck,J.B. o9 CHW P s a e
Perez,Eury o7 HOU P s a EX
Crawford,Carl o7 LA P s a INJ
Sizemore,Grady o97 FAA P p
Snider,Travis o79 KC P p
Arcia,Oswaldo o MIN P p inj-
Joyce,Matt o7 FAA P p Rg -AV
Garcia,Anthony 7 STL P p EX
Parker,Kyle o7 FAN P p EX
Sands,Jerry o9 CHW P p EX
Smolinski,Jacob o7 OAK P p EX
Thompson,Trayce o LA P p EX
Tucker,Preston o7 HOU P p EX
Lake,Junior o TOR P p -AV e Nw
Allen,Brandon 7 CIN P p -AV EX
Brentz,Bryce 9 BOS P p -AV EX
Choice,Michael 9o CLE P p -AV EX
Den Dekker,Matthew o7 WAS P p -AV EX
Maxwell,Justin o9 MIA P p -AV EX
Moya,Steven o DET P p -AV EX
Renfroe,Hunter 9 SD P p -AV EX
Walters,Zachary o CLE P p -AV EX
Swisher,Nick 0o7 ATL P p -AV INJ
Urrutia,Henry o7 BAL P a EX
Winker,Jesse 7 CIN P a EX
Butler,Joey 0o7 CLE P a EX Nw
Cowgill,Collin o7 CLE P a INJ e
Williams,Mason 8o NYY P a INJ EX
Suzuki,Ichiro o97 MIA P SB Ag
Fuentes,Reymond 8 KC P SB EX
Smith,Mallex 8 ATL P SB EX
Tilson,Charlie 8 STL P SB EX
Gose,Anthony 8o DET P SB -AV
Marisnick,Jake o8 HOU P SB -AV e
Goeddel,Tyler 7 PHI P SB -AV EX
Schebler,Scott o CIN P SB -AV EX
Schafer,Jordan o8 LA P SB -AV INJ
Richardson,Antoan 8 PIT P SB -AV INJ EX
Fuld,Sam o78 OAK P s
Carrera,Ezequiel o79 TOR P s e
Garcia,Leury o CHW P s EX
Mazara,Nomar 9 TEX P s EX
Ortega,Rafael 8 LAA P s EX
Young Jr.,Eric o MIL P s -AV
Gentry,Craig o LAA P s -AV Nw
Berry,Quintin o LAA P s -AV EX
Cave,Jake 8 CIN P s -AV EX
Decker,Jaff o TAM P s -AV EX
Dickerson,Alex o7 SD P s -AV EX
Holt,Tyler o CIN P s -AV EX
Morban,Julio 9 LA P s -AV EX
O Malley,Shawn o SEA P s -AV EX
Perez,Juan o CHC P s -AV EX
Rodriguez,Yorman 9 CIN P s -AV EX
Strausborger,Ryan o TEX P s -AV EX
Ynoa,Rafael o7 COL P s -AV EX

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Average), Pk (Ballpark), Rg (Regression). LIABILITIES: Av (Average), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience), Nw (New team), Pk (Ballpark), Ag (Age), Rg (Regression)

At the upper levels of the list appear most of the names we would expect. Yes, you might perceive the order differently but all the good players are up there somewhere.

There are two outfielders who look most out of place at those upper levels.

Ben Revere (S+,AV | Nw) is the 11th outfielder here but is ranked 30th best in the ADPs (and #104 overall). As with Dee Gordon at 2B, his extreme speed elevates him in a scarce category and allows his owners more draft flexibility later on. You have more than enough roster spots to make up for his deficiencies in the other counting stats.

However, steals are the product of both skill and opportunity. Revere maintained extreme speed skill all of last year despite the decline in his SB total. But he was on pace for another 40-SB year at mid-season; his green light dropped from 28 percent to 15 percent after his trade to Toronto. Now atop the order in Washington, there should be no reason that he can’t steal 40-plus bases again. Only Gordon and Billy Hamilton are near-locks for more.

At least Revere has a pedigree. I promise that Michael Conforto’s (PW,AV | EX – pictured) high rating has nothing to do with me being a Mets fan. His power potential is intriguing – it was [this close] to being a (P+) – but it’s all speculative until he gets more ABs.

The depth of the outfield pool gives us a preview of how pockets of interchangeable talent can be leveraged at the draft table. Where the other positions might have 2-3 players in a pocket, here we find 6-8. Once we reveal the overall ranking list, those pockets will get even deeper. Let me pick one of the more interesting examples:

The (P+,a) block of extreme power and moderate batting average is composed of Jose Bautista, Matt Kemp, J.D. Martinez, Khris Davis, Nelson Cruz and Carlos Gonzalez. You might quibble that the block as a whole should be ranked a bit higher but the spread of talent here is what is most interesting.

                   2015 Stats      Liabilities     ADP     R$
                   -----------     -----------     ---    ---
Bautista,J        40-114- 8-.250      none          27    $26
Kemp,M            23-100-12-.265      none          81    $15
Martinez,JD       38-102- 3-.282      none          38    $22
Davis,K           27- 66- 6-.247      inj-         121    $11
Cruz,N            44- 93- 3-.302     Ag, Rg         45    $20
Gonzalez,C        40- 97- 2-.271    inj-, Rg        56    $18

(It is too early to get industry auction values, so the Rotisserie dollars listed are estimated off the ADPs using a formula described in the Baseball Forecaster. It is based on a 15-team mixed league.)

In a perfect world, the ADPs and Roto values above would all be in roughly the same vicinity, and listed in descending order, more or less. Let’s look at some of the outlying data to determine why some of these players are being drafted so far from one another.

At first glance, you might wonder how players with a batting average range from .247 (Davis) to .302 (Cruz) could be considered equivalent. But I’ve already discussed the ridiculously wide variability of that stat. The difference between .247 and .302 over 550 AB is five hits per month. That’s five pieces of contact out of the approximately 70 fair balls hit each month (100 AB, 70 percent contact rate). That 55 point difference in BA is a product of a different result in just seven percent of those batted balls. If we expect the two BAs to naturally regress towards each other, the difference is far less; it’s perhaps 2-3 fewer hits per month for Cruz, 2-3 more hits for Davis. In the world of “Things That Matter,” this is “Pretty Darn Close to Nothing.”

The range using expected batting average – based purely on skills-based metrics – is .258 (Kemp) to .285 (Bautista) and even that doesn’t tell the whole story. Given that Cruz’s .302 BA is an outlier compared to his history of high .260s BAs and Davis’ expected BA was .260, you can start to see how all these batting averages start converging.

The range of power output goes from 23 HRs (Kemp) to 44 (Cruz). Playing time accounts for Davis’ low HR count (436 plate appearances) but all the rest saw between 600 and 653 PAs in 2015. Pro-rating Davis to 600 PAs gets him up to 37 HRs, which is a fun but mostly meaningless exercise.

That leaves Kemp as the power outlier here, but we know he can do better. He hit 17 of his 23 HRs in the second half last year, and similarly 17 of his 25 in the second half of 2014. The swing both seasons was, in part, the function of random home-run to flyball rates – 8%-19% in 2015, 16%-23% in 2014. Other than that, his power metrics are comparable to the other players in this group. Yes, Kemp has not hit 30 HRs in a season since 2011, but barring injury or premature aging, it is still in his skill set.

Kemp’s dozen bags are also the outlier in that category. His speed skills are not any different from the past few seasons when injuries cut into his SB totals, and these recent skills metrics have not been much over league average, also since 2011. While power can be easily maintained at age 31, speed is a skill of the young and won’t likely return.

Kemp may be at the outlying fringe of this group, but given that he is a very different player than he was in 2011, perhaps we need to adjust our expectations.

You’ll note that I am making these comparisons using 2015 data. Obviously, we wouldn’t project 2016 based on that alone, but you can clearly see the effects of recency bias on the ADPs. That’s the stake most folks plant in the ground when evaluating subsequent seasons. We don’t see the upcoming year as a blank canvas but as an extension of last year. Of course, that’s a faulty line of reasoning but it explains much of the ADP variances.

In the end, this sextet is largely the same player. Their Assets describe them all as .260ish hitters with possibly 35-40 HR power and a sprinkling of random stolen bases. Roster any one of them and expect nearly the same results.

If you need to separate them, start with their Liabilities. Davis’ and Gonzalez’s injury histories elevate their risk profiles a bit. Cruz, at 36, could start seeing some skills erosion (which, frankly, would just serve to regress his already inflated HR total).

If that’s not good enough, I know the natural inclination will be to consider the supporting cast on their respective ballclubs. Sure, fine, but that is not a reliable measure. Yes, odds are the Blue Jays will be a better team than the Padres, but last year, odds were the Red Sox were supposed to be a better team than the Mets.

Not this year. This year, the Mets will be the better team, led by Michael Conforto. And that bold statement is 100 percent driven by my life-long Flushing, Queens fandom.

 

Posted in Book updates, RSOB and tagged , ,

29 Comments

  1. David Irvin on February 12, 2016 at 11:47 am

    Ron,
    Sorry I’m new to this chart system. Is their a key on the Website to the symbols. I think I get it but I just want to be sure.
    PT – F,M,P Rg in asetts is bad? Rg in liabilities is good? SB , s, S+ P+, p, PW pos.- 07 vs. 7

    Thanks for your help.



  2. shandler on February 12, 2016 at 12:05 pm

    David – One of the downsides of posting a book online in this way is the temptation to jump in at the most recently posted chapter. Ideally, you should start at the beginning so you know what I’m talking about. Head over to the link for the MEMBERS ONLY page in the right column and start at the top. If you are in a hurry, you can jump in at Chapter 3 (though you’ll miss the foundational concepts that support the BABS system). Anyway, the answers you seek are all there.



  3. Nick Loret de Mola on February 12, 2016 at 1:41 pm

    Could not agree with this more, Ron. You just gave away my two big OF sleepers.



  4. Ed Greene on February 12, 2016 at 2:05 pm

    Ron, I’m liking how this is coming together, looking forward to the rest of the book.



  5. Matthew Keller on February 12, 2016 at 3:12 pm

    I’m really enjoying these chapters and it has me looking at things in a whole new way. Forget name value and recency bias and look at what really matters. Thanks for this and your help on Twitter (@MrFantasyKC).



  6. steve kohlhagen on February 12, 2016 at 3:33 pm

    i must have missed a comment that you were going to come back to this, but why don’t any ballpark effects appear yet? swk



  7. shandler on February 12, 2016 at 3:43 pm

    Thanks, folks. Pitchers next week.



  8. shandler on February 12, 2016 at 3:46 pm

    I do talk about ballpark effects in Chapter 2. In short, the only players who will be noted are those moving from or to one of the extreme batter or pitchers parks. Anything else in between is just noise.



  9. Josh Gillis on February 12, 2016 at 4:23 pm

    Hi Ron,

    My league is a 16 team mixed league with ca, 1b, 3b, 2b, SS, OF,OF,OF,UT,UT (10 vs 15). This means my targets will be different than those listed on your site as the number of teams and roster size is different than what you list on the site.

    For full time targets I took my offensive roster size (10) and multiplied by the number of teams (16) and arrived at 160

    Based on this number I then filtered the total offensive list for Pt = F and arrived at 189. Since it’s larger than 160 my target for Pt is 10

    For Pw I filtered where Pw was not blank (p, P+, PW) and arrived at 289. Since this is greater than 160 my target for Pw is 10

    For Sp I filtered where Sp was not blank (s, S+, SB) and arrived at 160. Since this is equal to 160 my target for Sp is 10

    For Av I filtered where Av was not blank (a, AV) and arrived at 247. Since this is greater than 160 my target for Av is 10

    Sorry to run through this whole thing but I figured others might want some of this info to adjust for their league settings



  10. shandler on February 12, 2016 at 4:27 pm

    So basically, with only 10 offensive players, you should be able to fill EVERY SINGLE SPOT with a productive player. Now you need to start focusing on the P+, PW, S+, SB and AV guys and filter out the p, s, a guys.



  11. steve kohlhagen on February 12, 2016 at 5:14 pm

    ok, thanks. i DID read that, but had in mind several outfield moves that i though qualified and was just checking in to see if you’d neglected some. i get it now that we just probably disagree on the materiality, and don’t disagree its probably noise. this is a fabulous book, ron. i want to thank you for the work and for the fun. swk



  12. David Morris Jr on February 13, 2016 at 8:33 am

    Man, what a good read so far. I’ve enjoyed all of the chapters, but the OF read has been my favorite thus far as it really shows some groupings and as you mention, once the overall rankings come out, I imagine it’ll shed even more light on the benefits of BABS.

    Trading just opened in my 14-team, mixed, keeper and I am going to be busy this morning pouring through these posts while making my offers.

    Keep up the good work.



  13. Paul on February 13, 2016 at 11:05 am

    Sorry for my ignorance, but what do you mean by “my target for XX is 10.” Ten what?



  14. shandler on February 13, 2016 at 11:13 am

    It’s his target number of players for each of those skills. So “my target for Pw is 10” means he needs to get 10 players that contribute positively in power. This roster-building concept is described in more detail in chapter 5.



  15. shandler on February 13, 2016 at 11:17 am

    Note the Khris Davis’ new BABS rating on Oakland is (P+,a | inj-,Nw,Pk). Skill doesn’t change but risk does. Moving from Milwaukee to Oakland is a close to the extreme level that merits notice. He’s still in the same pocket of talent but I’d move him down to the bottom of that group, behind Nelson Cruz and CarGo.



  16. martin mcgrath on February 13, 2016 at 12:29 pm

    nice job, Ron. Our patience has been rewarded.
    can’t wait till the excel sheet is formulated.

    Martin



  17. David Landsman on February 14, 2016 at 8:14 pm

    Ron – LONG TIME fan – back to the 80’s when I had to stop at Circuit City to call my move into you from a pay phone. Really loving this – I’ve skipped around – so – I’m not sure I missed it. Since you are grouping positions by relative strengths/weaknesses – is there A “Mendoza Line” (or a “Shandler Line”) at witch point, the liabilities outweigh the assets? In other words – draft “John Smith” minor leaguer, who has no chance of making it to the majors. No help (obviously) in “counting stats”, but he won’t kill your BA/ERA, etc?



  18. shandler on February 14, 2016 at 10:24 pm

    Hey David – Glad to see you. I haven’t considered a Mendoza Line for BABS though it’s an interesting idea. A guy like Aaron Judge above (PW | -AV,EX) probably offers more downside than upside, despite the significant power skills. It comes down to how a player fits into your roster. If you have room to take on some Liability (as discussed in Chapter 5), then maybe a player like Judge makes sense. But you can’t draw carte blanche conclusions about a player just because his risk outweighs his upside. It’s all about how he fits your roster.



  19. Shawn Kaufman on February 15, 2016 at 10:04 pm

    Great work! I like the way this is heading and look forward to the rest of the book and how it will work with the draft.

    Looks like Dickerson is missing a liability of a new team on my chart. Perhaps it’s just on my end.

    Keep up the great work!



  20. shandler on February 16, 2016 at 8:04 am

    Looks like the chart was cut before the trade. All these charts will be updated when I post the full player list next week.



  21. Robert Glade on February 17, 2016 at 11:51 am

    Ron….Congrats on your new book. It is a fascinating piece of work and I look forward to scrapping the old way of valuations for the three leagues I am in this season ( two auctions, one snake ) and using this method instead . I am a big fan of your writing and I would like to thank you and the baseball forecaster over the years for helping me achieve success in fantasy baseball. My question, outfielder-wise, concerned your liability ranking on Corey Dickerson, as he was not listed for ballpark or for new team. Were these rankings done before his trade? Or is their some reason why you don’t consider these two a liability in this case? Keep up the great work and once again, thanks for all of your insight.



  22. shandler on February 17, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    The rankings were done before the trade. It will all be updated in the overall list next week.



  23. Brandon Kratofil on February 22, 2016 at 7:53 pm

    Is it really possible to fill a line up with 10 Pw and Sp guys? Just looking at positional values, the chances of netting 10 PwxSp guys would be low. I have a 6×6 16 team keeper where we have 9 hitters, I know all should be productive, all should be at least a, what would be my realistic target for Sp? Is this a case where an S+ guy is equal to 3 pts SB 2 and s 1?



  24. Brandon Kratofil on February 22, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    Ron, is Brantley only an AV guy because of his injury or would you not have him as a p s guy regardless of his projected delayed start. I own him in a keeper league, along with Kipnis and based on what I am seeing here I am more motivated to look for a selling opportunity.



  25. shandler on February 23, 2016 at 12:08 am

    If there is another owner who sees them for more than what they are and is willing to take on Brantley’s risk, SELL.



  26. shandler on February 23, 2016 at 12:11 am

    The power targets are easily achievable. Speed is more problematic because there are very few options at 1b/3b/ca. I’ll probably adjust those targets at some point, but for now they serve a good purpose by reminding us how scarce that category is. DRAFT DEE GORDON.



  27. Jason Denny on February 23, 2016 at 8:39 pm

    Ron,

    McCutchen had an off year last year while Stanton did his typical mashing marred with injury. Harper blew up and stayed off the DL for any significant time. Is the sole reason you rate McCutchen higher because of the injury concerns that have circled the bases for Stanton and Harper – basically their entire careers?

    Thanks



  28. shandler on February 23, 2016 at 9:07 pm

    Even though they are listed in a specific order, McCutchen, Stanton and Harper are rated exactly the same (P+,AV). The only difference is that the latter two have some injury risk attached to them, but depending upon whether you want to take on that risk, the potential numbers that any of the three could put up is pretty much identical.



  29. Jason Denny on March 1, 2016 at 1:48 pm

    Got it – thanks!