RSOB Chapter 6b: Firstbasemen / Designated Hitters
New to “Ron Shandler’s Other Book”? Read the Introduction.
This is a position loaded with power and batting average, top to bottom. There are over a dozen extreme power options, depending upon how long you want to wait and how far down into the pool you want to go. There are 21 full-timers with significant or better power. You’d need to go nearly 20 deep before you hit a below average BA.
In short, there is plenty of power and BA for everyone. Don’t skimp here.
| ASSETS | LIABILITIES | |||||||||||||||
| BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | Pk | Rg | Av | Inj | Ex | Nw | Pk | Ag | Rg | |
| Encarnacion,Edwin | 3 | TOR | F | P+ | AV | |||||||||||
| Goldschmidt,Paul | 3 | ARI | F | P+ | AV | |||||||||||
| Votto,Joey | 3 | CIN | F | P+ | AV | Rg | ||||||||||
| Ortiz,David | 0 | BOS | F | P+ | AV | Ag | ||||||||||
| Abreu,Jose | 30 | CHW | F | PW | AV | |||||||||||
| Gonzalez,Adrian | 3 | LA | F | PW | AV | |||||||||||
| Rizzo,Anthony | 3 | CHC | F | PW | AV | |||||||||||
| Lind,Adam | 3 | SEA | F | PW | AV | Nw | Pk | |||||||||
| Cabrera,Miguel | 3 | DET | F | PW | AV | inj- | ||||||||||
| Freeman,Freddie | 3 | ATL | F | PW | AV | inj- | ||||||||||
| Duda,Lucas | 3 | NYM | F | P+ | a | |||||||||||
| Davis,Chris | 390 | BAL | F | P+ | a | Rg | ||||||||||
| Hosmer,Eric | 3 | KC | F | p | AV | |||||||||||
| Martinez,Victor | 0 | DET | F | p | AV | Ag | ||||||||||
| Pujols,Albert | 30 | LAA | F | p | AV | INJ | Ag | |||||||||
| Trumbo,Mark | 903 | BAL | F | PW | a | Pk | Nw | |||||||||
| Gattis,Evan | 0 | HOU | F | PW | a | |||||||||||
| Belt,Brandon | 3 | SF | F | PW | a | |||||||||||
| Zimmerman,Ryan | 3 | WAS | M | P+ | AV | INJ | ||||||||||
| Butler,Billy | 0 | OAK | F | p | a | |||||||||||
| Morales,Kendrys | 0 | KC | F | p | a | |||||||||||
| Cron,C.J. | 30 | LAA | F | p | a | e | ||||||||||
| Sano,Miguel | 0 | MIN | F | P+ | EX | |||||||||||
| Carter,Chris | 3 | MIL | F | P+ | -AV | Nw | ||||||||||
| Mauer,Joe | 30 | MIN | F | AV | ||||||||||||
| Loney,James | 3 | TAM | F | AV | inj- | |||||||||||
| Teixeira,Mark | 3 | NYY | M | P+ | a | inj- | Ag | |||||||||
| Napoli,Mike | 3 | CLE | F | PW | Nw | |||||||||||
| Rodriguez,Alex | 0 | NYY | F | PW | Ag | Rg | ||||||||||
| Park,Byung Ho | 3 | MIN | F | PW | EX | |||||||||||
| Paulsen,Benjamin | 3o | COL | F | PW | EX | |||||||||||
| Morneau,Justin | 3 | FAN | M | p | AV | INJ | ||||||||||
| Santana,Carlos | 30 | CLE | F | p | ||||||||||||
| Bour,Justin | 3 | MIA | F | p | e | |||||||||||
| Myers,Wil | 83 | SD | F | p | INJ | |||||||||||
| Fielder,Prince | 0 | TEX | F | a | ||||||||||||
| Moreland,Mitch | 3 | TEX | M | PW | a | |||||||||||
| Shaw,Travis | 3 | BOS | M | PW | a | EX | ||||||||||
| Adams,Matt | 3 | STL | M | PW | a | INJ | ||||||||||
| Montero,Jesus | 3 | SEA | M | p | a | e | ||||||||||
| Colabello,Chris | 37 | TOR | M | p | a | e | Rg | |||||||||
| Smoak,Justin | 3 | TOR | M | P+ | ||||||||||||
| Howard,Ryan | 3 | PHI | M | P+ | Ag | |||||||||||
| Moss,Brandon | 93 | STL | M | P+ | -AV | |||||||||||
| Alvarez,Pedro | 3 | FAA | M | PW | ||||||||||||
| LaRoche,Adam | 3 | CHW | M | PW | Rg | -AV | Ag | |||||||||
| Singleton,Jonathan | 3 | HOU | M | PW | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Canha,Mark | 37 | OAK | M | p | e | |||||||||||
| Morrison,Logan | 3 | TAM | M | p | inj- | Nw | ||||||||||
| Davis,Ike | 3 | OAK | M | p | INJ | |||||||||||
| Alonso,Yonder | 3 | OAK | M | a | inj- | Nw | ||||||||||
| Jaso,John | 0 | PIT | M | a | INJ | Nw | ||||||||||
| Reed,A.J. | 3 | HOU | P | PW | a | EX | ||||||||||
| Mancini,Trey | 3 | BAL | P | p | a | EX | ||||||||||
| Marte,Jefry | 3 | LAA | P | p | a | EX | ||||||||||
| Robinson,Clint | 37 | WAS | P | p | a | EX | ||||||||||
| Rogers,Jason | 3 | PIT | P | p | a | EX | Nw | |||||||||
| Muncy,Max | 3 | OAK | P | P+ | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Paredes,Jimmy | 0 | BAL | M | -AV | e | |||||||||||
| Noel,Rico | 0 | LA | P | S+ | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Pearce,Steve | 73 | TAM | P | PW | ||||||||||||
| Wallace,Brett | 3 | SD | P | PW | ||||||||||||
| Ruf,Darin | 37 | PHI | P | PW | e | |||||||||||
| Van Slyke,Scott | 73 | LA | P | PW | e | |||||||||||
| Walker,Christian | 30 | BAL | P | PW | EX | |||||||||||
| Moore,Tyler | 37 | WAS | P | PW | -AV | e | ||||||||||
| Olson,Matt | 3 | OAK | P | PW | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Shaffer,Richie | 3 | TAM | P | PW | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Ishikawa,Travis | 3 | SEA | P | PW | -AV | INJ | ||||||||||
| Parmelee,Chris | 3 | FAA | P | p | ||||||||||||
| Morse,Michael | 3 | PIT | P | p | inj- | Rg | ||||||||||
| Rodriguez,Sean | 3o | PIT | P | p | -AV | |||||||||||
| Terdoslavich,Joseph | 3 | BAL | P | p | inj- | EX | ||||||||||
| Aguilar,Jesus | 3 | CLE | P | p | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Wilkins,Andrew | 3 | MIL | P | p | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Blanks,Kyle | 3 | SF | P | p | -AV | INJ | Nw | |||||||||
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Average), Pk (Ballpark), Rg (Regression). LIABILITIES: Av (Average), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience), Nw (New team), Pk (Ballpark), Ag (Age), Rg (Regression)
Let’s start right at the top. Edwin Encarnacion and Paul Goldschmidt boast identical (P+,AV) ratings.
Whoa, whoa, wait. You can’t tell me that EE and Goldy are the same.
Sigh… okay. I know that seems a little counterintuitive. Goldschmidt has been a consistent .300 hitter while Encarnacion has topped out at only .280 over the past five years. Goldy still has an edge when we look at the underlying skills metrics, but that edge is smaller and not nearly statistically significant. By rights, they should both be hitting in the .290s.
Goldy steals bases. Goldy is younger. You want me to go on?
I know, I know. His bags are more a function of the green light he gets than any edge in baserunning skill. Goldschmidt’s speed skill metrics are below average, and his 15 SBs in the first half was a function of opportunity; it dropped to six over the final three months. Who knows how the D-backs will do in 2016, but any improvement might also have an impact on the need for Goldschmidt – a proven run-producer – to also be a run-builder.
For what it’s worth, the last time a first baseman stole 20 bases in a season and then followed up with another 20-SB performance was 16 years ago. That was Ryan Klesko. The interesting thing about Klesko was that he never stole more than 6 bases in any season before or after those duel 20-SB campaigns. In fact, there has been only one 20-SB season for a 1Bman since then — Derek Lee in 2003. Firstbasemen generally are not called on to steal; their bat is too important to risk injury on the basepaths.
As for the age difference, well, I’m not going to make a big deal about five years. Plenty of hitters are plenty productive at 32. Look, if you want to rank Goldschmidt ahead of Encarnacion, please go ahead. The point again here is that, if you miss out on rostering Goldschmidt and you have a chance to grab Encarnacion at a lower cost, well, you shouldn’t feel so bad.
There are three other players with (P+,AV) ratings that further shows how the variability of statistics often obscures underlying skill.
Joey Votto had a terrific rebound season in 2015 with a skills profile statistically indistinguishable from Goldschmidt. However, his recent track record is volatile enough that we should consider the possibility of regression.
There is a point here that bears mentioning. The biggest Votto-Goldy variance was in the team-dependent stats. Arizona was a better offensive club than Cincinnati, leading to more run and RBI opportunities. If you want to extend that expectation into 2016, do so at your own risk. One year ago, we projected that Goldschmidt’s team-dependent stats would suffer from being surrounded by a potentially feeble D-back offense. Unexpected performances from players like A.J. Pollock and David Peralta put that expectation to rest. Yes, the Reds look horrible on paper NOW. So what?
David Ortiz and Ryan Zimmerman are the other two (P+,AV) players. Ortiz’s liability is age, and he is at a point when each year gets more and more risky. But given that he’s announced his alleged retirement at the end of 2016, it’s anyone’s guess what he might do. Zimmerman gets dinged big-time for health, pushing his projected playing time down to mid-time status. Both are high risk-high reward options.
You don’t have to take on that risk, though, as there are a whole slew of options just below them on the list. Yes, you’d have to sacrifice a little power, or a little average, but there are enough low-risk players to choose from that are productive enough.
Some surprises…
BABS likes Miguel Cabrera, Adam Lind and Freddie Freeman about the same (PW,AV). As mentioned earlier, I’d probably give Cabrera an (A+) for batting average if there was such a rating, as he is about the only player who’s a consistently extreme .300-plus producer. That would boost him to the top of the (PW, AV) sub-group (allowing still for the injury risk). Lind’s platoon differential is a good news-bad news scenario; it could suppress his ABs, but the more RHPs he sees, the better his skills will translate to stats. He gets dinged here for the move to Seattle, but we all know how horrible a move that was for Nelson Cruz. </sarcasm> And Freeman continues to underperform his skills metrics; he’s better than we’ve been seeing.
Lucas Duda looks to be a poor man’s Chris Davis (P+,a). Add Mark Teixeira and this would be a similarly-skilled trio, but Teix is riddled with marks on the Liability side. There are lots of nice little 2-3 player pockets like this that you can tap into to fill out your roster.
The bottom line is, when it comes to 1B/DH, is there is no reason for you to be foregoing power. Joe Mauer, James Loney, Yonder Alonso and John Jaso – fuggedaboutit – they should be the last port for the desperate.
Somewhat surprisingly, Prince Fielder also falls into this category. Despite posting a decent 23-HR rebound season, his underlying skills were soft as compared to the rest of the pool. He’s a reasonable fallback at a corner infield position, but I’d be reluctant to roster him as part of my team’s power core.
The loss of Greg Bird takes a (P+ | EX) part-timer out of the player pool. That would be a significant hit if not for the pool being so deep in power anyway. The Yankees will hurt more for the loss than you will.
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Just a sanity check to make sure I understand correctly, at first glance am I correct in thinking that Abreu, Gonzalez and Rizzo are essentially interchangeable given their assets of PW & AV and lack of liability?
yes, I think that is the correct assumption using BABS. And, I am okay with it!
I know it is difficult to leave our notions from the past, and I may even myself prefer one over the other, but overall, I will be correct as much as I will be incorrect.
I like the assumptions, and I also like that is gives me more flexibility in the draft.
admittedly, I have a couple of but…buts…but, I will stay openminded and happy to go forward
Yes, that is the idea here with the BABS ratings. That says that if Rizzo is taken in round 1 and in round 3 Abreu is there, you are not losing as much as you think. Again it will be a play by the draft. If you get to round 2 (lets say 12 team AL/NL) and you see that Rizzo, Cabrera, EE, and Goldschmidt are gone you could take Abreu in round 2 or wait till round 3 or 4 and grab Davis or Gonzalez with out a bunch of loss. Then hopefully you have loaded the Assets side of the ledger with OF, middle or somewhere else where others will not have those options. That said though, I have always found that 1B goes quick so I would not be surprised to see 7 of these guys gone by end of round 2 in most 12 team drafts.
Hey Ron, Are you going to put these sheets in something like an Excel spreadsheet to grab or should we be thinking of cut and paste from the pages? Even a CSV separated document would be a nice way to parse things (I know that XML/JSON is probably right out ;))
There will be Excel spreadsheets available at the end of the month. I am publishing these positional reviews over the next three weeks but want to do an update before I release them in Excel. There will also be an overall integrated ranking list as well.
Hi Ron
I love the focus on relative skill levels and the balance sheet approach ( I am a banker so it works for me).
My question goes to determining $ values in auction drafts. What is the process BABS would use to determine the prospective value for Abreu, Gonzalez and Rizzo? Would you use the values generated by various experts/sites or some other method?
Thanks.
David
I’ll be going through the drafting process once I get through these positional reviews, but in short, it’s all market-driven. We’ll take a look at the going rate range/ADP for each player and then you decide what to pay/when to draft based on their skills/risk assessment.
Ron,
What are your thoughts on Hosmer? He’s one of my organization guys and I dubbed him Votto 2.0, but the power has never come and his tendency to hit the ball on the ground is worrisome. I also dont think he’ll be able to sustain the SB numbers. I love the R and RBI, but I need to cut bait on counting stats if I am to adopt the BABS model. I am currently being offfered Hoz for Tulo in a league where I have Correa and E5. The kicker is Hoz is a fresh keeper and Tulo is keep or deal time. I know we want to focus on the P+ for the 1B. Thoughts?
Hosmer’s development has been essentially flat. Sure he could improve but how long can you afford to wait? If you are positioned to contend in 2016 you should build on as much guaranteed production as you can. If you are rebuilding and can afford to wait a year, Hosmer could surprise. But it’s all speculative. You can get more power at 1B.
Hey Ron: Just signed up for BABS, going through the material….so far I like it a lot. Can’t wait to see the relievers and auction strategy sections.
I have been offered an overpriced Miggy at $43 in my 10 team AL-only auction for 2 or 3 high reserve picks (we play a reserve roster of 17). I currently have what I think is a very good core keeper offensive team (R Martin at C, Correa at SS, JD Martinez, C Gomez and Hicks ($1) in the OF, Plouffe at 3B and Morales at DH). The only other top 1B available is Encarnacion, all others are being kept. We also play OBP as a stats category. Do you think I should make the trade?
Note: I also am keeping what I consider to be a very good core pitching staff (Keuchel, Carrasco, Quintana, McHugh, Allen and Doolittle). In my view the time is now to get the best players I can. If I take Miggy, I will still have around $110 to draft 9 players in the auction. Your thoughts are most welcome. Thanks.
If you believe you have a legitimate chance to win in 2016, you always make that trade.
The comment that Miguel Cabrera would get an A+ rating for batting average if there was such a rating, a recent story of him feeling healthy for the first time in a few years, and memories of him winning me leagues before prompted me to pick him in the late first round, ahead of Arenado. Did I get carried away?
Maybe. Even though his high batting average is valuable, you are still giving up power in choosing him over Arenado. And a player stating that he feels healthy is not the same thing as there being no injury risk.
Hey Ron,
How would you change babs for an OBP league? Or does the avg vs OBP skills just even out?
BABS needs to be adjusted for non-standard leagues. You would need to make an adjustment for OBP.
I guess i should capitalize the HOW in “how would you change BaBs for an OBP league?” is it a simple swap of OBP for the AVG category? How different do you expect the output would be? Since everything is looser anyway.
I ended up doing a hybrid approach, tell me what you think. I exported all of your spreadsheets into my own Excel workbook using worksheets for each position – super simple. My “adds” is I added a column for “Dollar Value” since the leagues I am in are auction based.
I found a separate statistical database (Fantasy Pros) and used their dollar values – changed some that I did not agree with.
It shows tons of “high-upside” guys that “could” go for a lower price assuming the auction plays out that way or even close. That is huge if they do assuming I agree with your logic which I do.
Question: Will you be providing us your own AL/NL/Mixed dollar values? I assume not but wanted to ask before I get too far into this.
Thanks
I’l be publishing a spreadsheet on Friday that has the BABS rankings alongside rough ADPs and dollar values. I say “rough” because they will not be broken out by any specific league size. Once you start attaching firm dollar values or ADPs to players, you’re headed to the Dark Side.
Agreed. For AL/N
Agreed. For mixed leauges I am using your
#’s as merely another data point, certainly not firm. For my NL/AL only leagues I am changing the dollar figures accordingly – but again not firm at all.