RSOB Chapter 6a: Analyzing the Player Pool – Catchers

New to “Ron Shandler’s Other Book”? Read the Introduction. 

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Most of us will take a look at the player pool and see a massive collection of hundreds – even thousands – of players. The prospect of having to analyze, project, value and rank these players is incredibly daunting.

It’s never made a lot of sense to me. How can you precisely say that Player A is better than Player B who is better than Player C? Sure, Clayton Kershaw is better than Clayton Richard, but at the end of the season, does it really matter whether I owned Kinsler or Kipnis? Probably not. At least not from where we are sitting here before Opening Day.

It’s like trying to compare two Oscar-nominated movies – one about a bear-mauled frontiersman out for revenge against one about Wall Street insiders trying to bet against the market.

Um, well… maybe not all that different.

But really, how do you decide whether Dee Gordon is more valuable than Giancarlo Stanton? And how do you accomplish that task when you don’t really know what either player is going to do this year?

Not easy. But for starters, we can look at each sub-group of players – by position – and get a sense of where value lies, Asset by Asset, and Liability by Liability.

Who makes it onto these lists? All full-timers, all mid-timers and only those part-timers who have at least one item on the Assets side of the ledger. Part-timers need to have at least one measurable above average skill. So if you’re jonesing for some Jurickson, you’ll have to wait until we can see him accumulate something more than DL days.

One big caveat… If you are looking for rankings that match everyone else’s or find yourself dismissing these rankings because they don’t meet your own perceptions, well, then just go ahead and use those other rankings. I’m not here to match others; nor is there any value in using other rankings to validate mine. The whole point of this exercise is to look at the players differently. Given that pretty much all pre-season cheat sheets look downright silly when compared to the end-of-season results, isn’t it about time to try something different? </rant done>

 

CATCHERS

Without a doubt, catchers are the most frustrating position players to project, and own. Last year in the FSTA Experts League, I thought I had scored a coup by drafting Jonathan Lucroy and Devin Mesoraco (both ranked among the top five catchers) in rounds 5 and 7. But I should have been smarter. History shows that catchers cannot be counted on to string together many productive seasons. Look at this year’s ADP top-10 ranked backstops:

                   2012   2013   2014   2015
                   ----   ----   ----   ----
Buster Posey       $30    $19    $27    $27
*Kyle Schwarber                          $9
Salvador Perez     $12    $17    $14    $13
Jonathan Lucroy    $16    $21    $23     $8
Brian McCann        $8    $11    $11    $12
Russell Martin      $6     $9    $16    $14
Travis D'Arnaud           -$6     $7     $7
Stephen Vogt              -$2     $5    $12
Devin Mesoraco     -$1     $4    $18    -$3
Matt Wieters       $14    $11     $4     $4
     * Listed in ADPs as OF

These will be 2016’s best catchers, according to the NFBC’s ADP rankings. Buster Posey is clearly the cream of the crop and perhaps the only one with sights on another $20 season; only Lucroy has even sniffed $20. The rest are a hodgepodge of middling output, unproven goodness and inconsistency. And these are the best.

So how should you draft catchers? There are a variety of strategies that most folks use, but I decided to pose the question to some of the best fantasy leaguers in the industry.

As part of this book project, I enlisted the help of the participants in the Tout Wars experts leagues and surveyed them on a variety of issues. You’ll see some Tout survey results pop up from time to time. Here is the first one.

What is your preferred strategy for drafting catchers in 2016?

38%    Target mid-level backstops, reaching if necessary to avoid getting shut out.
31%    Target one solid or mid-level bat, and one end-gamer.
21%    Perfectly content with 1-2 end-gamers.
 7%    Target Posey. If not, just settle for best value.
 3%    Some other strategy

Interestingly, that second option (one solid/mid, one end-gamer) was not even a choice on the survey; those were all write-in votes. So, it’s conceivable that strategy could have rated even higher.

I am part of the 38 percent. I don’t like having to reach, but there is one fact that pushes me in that direction: Although we have to draft enough catchers to fill every roster, if we were to rank all players without regard to position, there will be a significant numbers of bad-hitting catchers who don’t make the cut. That’s what creates positional scarcity. Those below-the-line catchers do have draft value just because you have to draft them, but they are clearly not roster-worthy in the grand scale of the productive player pool. So I want to avoid those end-gamers.

Anyway, let’s take a look at the BABS catcher pool and start figuring out how to use this chart.

ASSETS

LIABILITIES

BATTER

Pos

Tm

PT

Pw

Sp

Av

Pk

Rg

Av

Inj

Ex

Nw

Pk

Ag

Rg

Posey,Buster

23

SF

F

p

AV

Lucroy,Jonathan

2

MIL

F

p

AV

inj-

Wieters,Matt

2

BAL

F

PW

a

INJ

Realmuto,Jacob

2

MIA

F

p

s

a

e

Gomes,Yan

2

CLE

F

p

a

inj-

Hundley,Nick

2

COL

F

p

a

inj-

Schwarber,Kyle

o72

CHC

F

P+

EX

Castillo,Welington

2

ARI

F

PW

McCann,Brian

2

NYY

F

PW

Martin,Russell

2

TOR

F

p

Norris,Derek

2

SD

F

p

Mesoraco,Devin

2

CIN

F

p

INJ

Perez,Salvador

2

KC

F

a

McCann,James

2

DET

F

a

EX

D Arnaud,Travis

2

NYM

M

p

a

INJ

e

Molina,Yadier

2

STL

M

AV

Pierzynski,A.J.

2

ATL

M

AV

Ag

Chirinos,Robinson

2

TEX

M

PW

inj-

e

Knapp,Andrew

2

PHI

P

PW

s

a

EX

Montero,Miguel

2

CHC

M

p

Vogt,Stephen

23

OAK

M

p

Grandal,Yasmani

2

LA

M

p

inj-

Castro,Jason

2

HOU

M

p

-AV

Iannetta,Chris

2

SEA

M

p

-AV

Nw

Avila,Alex

23

CHW

M

p

Rg

-AV

inj-

Nw

Rupp,Cameron

2

PHI

M

p

-AV

EX

Casali,Curtis

2

TAM

M

p

-AV

inj-

EX

Cervelli,Francisco

2

PIT

M

a

Navarro,Dioner

2

CHW

M

a

inj-

Nw

Swihart,Blake

2

BOS

M

a

EX

Sanchez,Gary

2

NYY

P

PW

a

EX

Arencibia,J.P.

2

PHI

P

P+

-AV

Nw

Saltalamacchia,Jarrod

2

DET

P

P+

-AV

Nw

Soto,Geovany

2

LAA

P

P+

-AV

Nw

Murphy,Tom

2

COL

P

P+

-AV

EX

Perez,Carlos

2

LAA

M

s

EX

Blair,Carson

2

OAK

P

PW

s

-AV

EX

Suzuki,Kurt

2

MIN

M

Ramos,Wilson

2

WAS

M

inj-

Flowers,Tyler

2

ATL

M

-AV

Nw

Zunino,Mike

2

SEA

P

PW

-AV

McKenry,Michael

2

TEX

P

PW

-AV

inj-

Alfaro,Jorge

2

PHI

P

PW

-AV

EX

Susac,Andrew

2

SF

P

PW

-AV

inj-

EX

Joseph,Caleb

2

BAL

P

p

e

Phegley,Joshua

2

OAK

P

p

e

Conger,Hank

2

TAM

P

p

-AV

Nw

Recker,Anthony

2

CLE

P

p

-AV

e

Teagarden,Taylor

2

FAN

P

p

-AV

e

Perez,Roberto

2

CLE

P

p

-AV

EX

Rivera,Rene

2

TAM

P

p

-AV

EX

Corporan,Carlos

2

NYY

P

p

-AV

inj-

e

Kratz,Erik

2

SD

P

p

-AV

e

Nw

Ag

Ross,David

2

CHC

P

p

-AV

inj-

Ag

Hernandez,Oscar

2

ARI

P

p

-AV

inj-

EX

Pena,Brayan

2

STL

P

a

Nw

Barnes,Austin

2

LA

P

a

EX

Murphy,John

2

MIN

P

a

EX

Nw

Brantly,Rob

2

CHW

P

a

inj-

e

O Conner,Justin

2

TAM

P

s

-AV

EX

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Average), Pk (Ballpark), Rg (Regression). LIABILITIES: Av (Average), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience), Nw (New team), Pk (Ballpark), Ag (Age), Rg (Regression)

This is your first peek at what a live balance sheet looks like. This is structured to present the potential full-timers first (F), followed by the mid-timers (M) and part-timers (P). Occasionally, there will be a player who sneaks into another section because his Assets or Liabilities are so notable – positive or negative – that they trump playing time. Players are then grouped with others of similar skill. Within those groups of like skills, players without Liabilities are listed first, following by those with black marks in order of riskiness, least to most. That’s basically the entire thing in a nutshell. Not rocket science.

It is important to note that this is not a straight ranking list. Players with identical ratings can be considered interchangeable commodities. So while J.P. Arencibia, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Geovany Soto are listed in that order, they have identical Asset and Liability profiles so are essentially the same guy. In some cases, these “like” players have never been photographed together so they might really be the same guy.

You can see that there is a fair amount of power up and down the list, though the only potential full-timer with extreme power skills is Kyle Schwarber. No surprise that there is virtually no speed at this position. Perhaps a bit more surprising is that there are only four players in the entire pool with the potential to be significant assets in the batting average category. This is a slim pickin’s position.

The first thing that pops out is that Buster Posey and Jonathan Lucroy have identical asset ratings (p,AV), indicating moderate power and significant BA. From a ratings standpoint, the only thing that separates them is Lucroy’s injury risk.

Wait a minute. How could they have the same skills profile? Posey is a consistent .300 hitter and former MVP. Lucroy is not even close.

True. However, the underlying skills of both players are well within normal statistical variance. Remember Chapter 1?

I’m not sure I’m going to like this.

Admittedly, this is probably the biggest hurdle we’ll all have to get over during this journey – the perceptions we lock onto based on past statistical outputs. Lucroy has actually hit .300 before – twice – and while most all drafters will downgrade him based on last year’s injury-marred season, he is very similar to Posey on a skills basis alone.

Does this mean I should draft Lucroy in the same round as Posey?

No. That injury risk still exists. However, the proximity in their skills seems in conflict with their ADPs – Posey is at around #20; Lucroy is outside the top 100. A healthy Lucroy could easily close that gap, providing a profit opportunity here.

You won’t find many ranking lists that have Matt Wieters and J.T. Realmuto this high. We all remember Wieters’ unrealized potential, but we can’t forget the significant injury risk. Realmuto showed some interesting skills last year; most projections will hedge on growth, but he could be the position’s only real across-the-board asset. But he has a Liability too – he still has less that two full seasons of experience under his belt so there could be some additional variability in his output.

Do you draft Wieters or Realmuto this high? Probably not, but the marketplace will determine that. However, there is a bigger question you need to answer first. Is this where you want to take on risk on the Liabilities side of the ledger? BABS gives you a Liabilities budget. In a 15-team mixed league, you are allowed a maximum of four injury risks and four experience risks among your batters, and 12 risks total for your entire roster. Do you want to spend one here? Would you rather conserve them for a player with a higher upside, like a Giancarlo Stanton, or perhaps for more of a fringe player, like a Zack Cozart?

If you don’t want to take on risk with a catcher, maybe you scan further down the list and focus on some backstops without any (obvious) Liabilities. Welington Castillo, Brian McCann, Russell Martin and Derek Norris are perhaps your best mid-level options.

Once you get past the top 20 or so names, you enter a territory with minefields. Over half of the remaining catchers have an (-AV) rating on the Liabilities side, making them batting average sinkholes… um, which is what are left after stepping on the mines. Nope, no mixed metaphors here.

There are a few interesting players to note:

Salvador Perez has been the third catcher off the board in the NFBC, but his only real asset is some moderate batting average help. His recent power performances are not supported by his skills peripherals, so don’t be drafting him hoping for another 20-HR season. His ADP is clearly driven by recency bias.

Travis D’Arnaud has the same assets profile as Yan Gomes and Nick Hundley but is dinged because of more significant injury and experience risk. If you’re willing to take that risk on, he would rate higher.

Who the heck is Andrew Knapp? He’s down the Phillies catching depth chart but his 11 HRs and .360 BA in 214 AB in Double-A may have opened some eyes. Given the dearth of decent offensive numbers at this position, those skills have pushed him up into mid-timer territory. You won’t find that phenomenon often; this position really is a wasteland. But don’t ignore that big “EX” on the Liabilities side; that should relegate him to an end-game speculation, mostly in deeper leagues.

When it comes to the catcher end-game, the mantra is always “first do no harm.” If you can’t find someone with any redeeming skill, grab someone who won’t get much playing time. Some thoughts:

Kurt Suzuki holds the ignominious distinction of offering not a single asset or liability, yet is projected as at least a mid-timer. Lots and lots of empty at-bats. Won’t help you, won’t hurt you. Well, that’s not entirely accurate. Those at-bats do mean some runs and RBIs, so there’s that. Just above him on the list, there are a bunch of part-timers with some assets but also BA downside; it’s your call what to choose. Lots of ABs of nothing, or fewer ABs with both good and bad stats.

For other mid-timers, it’s probably better to own a part-timer instead. Tyler Flowers gives you lots of ABs of bad BA. Alex Avila and Curt Casali give you a little power but a litany of liabilities. It might be better to own guys like Caleb Joseph, Josh Phegley or Brayan Pena, who have some moderate skills despite a paucity of playing time.

The bottom line is that this will be a difficult pool to draft out of. I would probably be willing to take on a bit of risk here because there are so few catchers with any assets worth chasing. The recency bias of Wieters’ and Realmuto’s second half performances, and Hundley’s home ballpark, will likely drive up their prices a bit. But they may be some of the few places to find at least a little profit.
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