My Keeper List Decision
Last week I asked for your help! My decision appears below.
I have a keeper list due this Friday, October 21 in advance of the November 4 XFL draft and am still on the fence for my last few picks.
This is a great exercise for all of us in using BABS to support the keeper decision-making process. Sometimes players look different through the BABS lens. Here’s a chance to put her through a real-world test.
Here are the league incidentals:
– 15-team mixed 5×5 league, with OBP instead of batting average.
– 23-man active roster auctioned in November, 17-man reserve snake drafted in March.
– Can keep up to 15 players.
– Finished 3rd in 2016. My window for contention is in its last 1-2 years.
I have 13 mostly firm keepers:
POS PLAYER $$ 2016 BABS ====================================== 1B E.Encarnacion 23 P+,a+ 3B M.Machado 16 PW,AV 2B J.Segura 8 S+,AV SS X.Bogaerts 10 s,AV OF J.Bradley 8 PW,a OF Y.Tomas 7 PW,AV OF H.Renfroe 4 P+,AV- SP J.Lester 27 ER,KK SP J.Verlander 16 ER,K+ SP M.Tanaka 10 ER,k SP R.Porcello 6 e SP M.Fulmer 4 e,k RP M.Melancon 16 E+,k,SV
Here are the players on the bubble. I can only choose two of them.
POS PLAYER $$ 2016 BABS NOTES ================================================================ 1B B.Park 4 P+,x Low cost speculation SS D.Gregorius 10 s,a- Lock in infield slots OF K.Davis 20 P+,a Powerful, but pricey OF R.Quinn 4 S+,+ Scarce speed, but PT? OF Mallex Smith 10 S+ Pricier scarce speed OF K.Broxton 10 P+,SB,x+ Intriguing, but risky RP Andrew Miller 11 E+,K+ No-brainer if closer, low value if not Fm Matt Olson - There is no cost to keep any Fm Ryan McMahon - of these farm players but they Fm Brett Phillips - count against the 15-man limit.
Some of my competitors in this league will likely see this post. I considered that, but I think the value of analyzing this real world case study offsets any risk of giving away some small competitive intelligence.
My Decision
Thank you for all your responses. They were very helpful.
When I went into this process, I was leaning towards protecting Roman Quinn and Ryan McMahon as my final two keepers. Quinn was for his obvious speed and possible spot as leadoff hitter next year, but I worried about his spotty injury history. I’d keep McMahon to have at least a little investment in this team’s future.
I decided to lock in Quinn. This team needs another burner behind Segura and I think Quinn provides the best price/earnings upside as compared to Mallex Smith and Keon Broxton. None of the three are risk-free but I feel like I’ve mitigated some risk by taking the lower cost player.
For my last pick, I decided to go with Khris Davis (pictured). I am all-in for 2017 so I can’t worry about keeping a foot in the future. My future is now. I originally didn’t consider Davis because his $20 price tag was considerably higher than his actual $13 earnings in 2016. (Yes, HRs were devalued so much last year that a 40-HR hitter earned only $13!) But I had to consider the inflation in keeper leagues and odds are Davis would cost more than $20 at the draft.
As it turned out, a review of the XFL rules revealed that Hunter Renfroe is still a farm player for me. So, that $4 savings and opening up of another roster spot helped take the sting out of keeping Davis for $20.
I’ll be going into the November 4 draft with $85 to spend on 9 players. Here’s hoping I can fill these holes with productive support players. Thanks again.
Quinn for sure. Park would be my second choice, but it’s close.
I’d keep Brett Phillips too, if it were possible, if only for his laugh.
I keep Khris Davis, $20 is not cheap, but you need another power bat and its on your roster with a fixed price.
The second keeper is between Gregorius and Broxton. Gregorius is a solid starter, but I go with Broxton for his potential. Being a OBP league you dont get hurt by his average and he gives you another solid power bat with some speed.
That does not leave you with a lot of money left, but gives you a solid lineup to fill around.
My league is almost identical to yours except we have 12 teams. Using BABS I had my first championship in 14 years winning by 11 points. SB are becoming so hard to acquire that I’d be tempted to keep 2 of your burners – any 2 of Quinn, Smith, and Broxton. We use the auction format too and many of our champs over the years have protected fewer than 15 and still won.
My vote is for Broxton and Miller. Broxton because speed is in demand and he did not injure his wheels so his speed should be intact going into the 2017 season. I pick Miller because in a competitive league you need a little luck and Miller is exactly the type of player you need to take a flyer on in a league where your keepers are due in November
So far I’ve got three votes for Broxton, two votes for Quinn, and one vote each for Park, Davis, Gregorius, Smith and Miller. If I’m going for the beans in 2016 and have to maximize my potential for playing time/role and minimize my risk, does that color any of these choices?
For instance, I’d love to have Miller at $11, but if he does not find his way into a closing role, he is nearly worthless to me, at least as one of my 15 scarce keepers. However, does that potential upside trump the risk inherent in some of the other picks?
My two cents is two of Broxton, Miller, Davis, and Quinn. Kinda depends on what you think will be available and how much you will have compared to the others. If you can chase speed and potential save sources then take the power (Broxton, Davis). If vice versa keep the speed and saves (Quinn, Miller) If you can’t determine what will be available, alternately just go maximum flexibility and keep the cheap ones (Park, Broxton, or farm) then be prepared to spend spend spend on the top talent available.
I would keep Davis and Broxton. Power of Davis is worth the price. Milwaukee has changed Broxton’s swing with great results so risk is less than you think and he will play one of the outfield spots (can play all 3) while they wait for their other top outfielders to advance. As hard as it is to pass on Miller, without holds the speed and power of Davis and Broxton is the way to go to maximize your window to win now. BABS will help you draft less expensive higher value players to construct the rest of your roster. BTW. used BABS in my 12 team AL. only 5 x 5 and won my 10th title in very competitive 30 yr. league. BABs is a great tool to construct rosters in veteran leagues where owners know each other so well.
Gregorius and Kris “Crush” Davis Part II make the most sense, for your retention. As of this week, those guys have defined roles for next season, and everybody else on your list is a “crapshoot” regarding playing time, even Broxton. Broxton’s contact % is less than 60%, that’s risky territory, and Lewis Brinson is right behind him, with the same skill set, and better plate skills. If the Brew Crew trades Braun, and goes young, there OF could very easily be Hernan Perez, Domingo Santana, and Lewis Brinson. Broxton is one “cold” spring training away, from being out of a job, and with that swing and miss in his bat, it could happen sooner, rather than later. Andrew Miller’s role is undefined at this time, even though the skills are off the charts, you can’t afford the risk, going for it all in the next couple of years, you need to lock in “what you know” and leave the risk taking to your competitors.
Davis and Quinn.
Davis is even money; Quinn is upside.
What if Davis is traded elsewhere? And, as PHI hinted, Quinn maybe a top-of-order R source. Late-season articles from PHI high-ups seemed pretty happy with ’17 possibilities. I added and dropped him several times that last month.
Miller is, as you put it in your book, good but “fragile.” In a “QS”, not “W”, league, his value is higher. Five cat, even. But can you count on another year, with playoff usage?
I just don’t see other good options. Will Park adjust further in one year?
Ron, I read your book annually. Have won two years out of three using your player advice, from spring to September. Thank you.
-Justin
I have to go with Davis as the safe, albeit expensive, power source. Then that leaves Quinn as the high risk/high reward speed source who has a decent OBP potential. Broxton could solve both of those roles, but I just don’t trust him…..
the thing about Miller, is that he got 10 wins!
and he most likely get wins again. IMO, in addition he got 123k’s 103, 100, and 123. Not to mention and era of 1.45 and whip of 69. This was his best, but the past two were also excellent. In addition, you never know what can happen with closers, I think he is well worth the chance.
If I must take another, it would either be Gregorius who might get better scoring stats, at an important position. If you have FA I might just take a shot at Quinn for 4 dollars. Or just stick with your 13 and Miller.
g
My choices were Davis and Broxton and I stick with them. But if your “keepers” are in play, I would look hard at dropping Lester and keeping Gregorius. That frees up $17 and Didi at $10 is a safe, solid play. Having the extra auction $$ reduces the risk of Broxton if you move some of the $17 to your hitting budget.
I would keep Park and Miller. Miller will find a role and give you potential for saves no matter where he lands. Park should improve in his second go round and you know the power is there if he gets any PT at all.
Switch my comment: In a “W” league, and not a “QS,” as mine was, his value is higher.