BABS rates Ron’s 50-round D&H team

February 20, 2019

I just completed a 50-round snake in an NFBC “Draft Champions” (Draft & Hold) format, with 14 other speakers from the First Pitch Arizona conference. I used the BABS spreadsheet published late last month, although I veered a bit from the plan.

I fully embraced the BABS ratings, but opted to eschew the targets. Instead, I just grabbed the best players as they came up and intuitively decided when it was time to take a pitcher, or another infielder, or some stolen bases. I avoided liabilities like the plague, which got me into trouble last year, but some habits are tough to break. Call me an “expert,” but first call me “human.”

Some cursory impressions…

It’s easy to go off-book when you see a high skilled player with lesser playing time. So, in quest of skills, I rostered only 11 full-time hitters, four of them shortstops (though one can play OF). Rostering Kole Calhoun and J.T. Riddle (the 4th shortstop) were my attempts to grab at least some AB. Playing time is fluid, so my 10 mid-timers could edge upward. I hope.

I missed out on the SB studs and had to cobble together a speed game. I grabbed what I could and figured I’d pluck off a few swift end-gamers, but got sniped on Roman Quinn and Rajai Davis late. Amed Rosario better be all that BABS thinks he is.

Now that I’m looking at it, it doesn’t seem like this team is going to do too well in batting average either. But our perception of what constitutes a “good” BA has changed, so maybe I’m okay?

After last year’s debacle, I swore that I’d draft enough starting pitching. At 13 arms deep, I hope that’s enough. Relievers are very skilled; with any luck, they’ll get a bunch of saves.

It is possible for me to roster an active 23 without any appreciable injury risk. Of course, BABS cautions that all players start with 25 percent odds of getting hurt, so my starting 23 would be 75 percent healthy. At least, that’s how it looks as we sit here in February.

The downside of slow drafts is that you (at least, I) get distracted with other stuff and can’t focus on making every pick count. Sticking to the BABS targets for assets would have helped, I suppose (I did fine with my liabilities budget), but I think this team went off the rails pretty early.

What do you think? Here’s my team, first in draft order, and then in positional order. Comments are encouraged.

BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av * Pk Rg Av- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
Drft ADP PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv * Pk Rg Er- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
1 1 Ramirez,Jose E. 3 CLE F p s A+ *
2 2 Cole,Gerrit SP HOU F ER KK
3 2 Snell,Blake SP TBR F ER KK Rg-
4 5 Pham,Tommy O TBR F p s a *
5 5 Carpenter,Matt 13 STL F P+ a *
6 7 Peraza,Jose S CIN F SB a –
7 6 Aguilar,Jesus 1 MLW F P+ a e
8 9 Giles,Ken rp TOR ER K+ SV Rg+
9 10 Rosario,Amed S NYM F S+ a e
10 12 Glasnow,Tyler SP TBR M e KK Rg+ e
11 10 Piscotty,Stephen O OAK F p a
12 13 Schoop,Jonathan 2 MIN F p a – Nw
13 14 James,Josh SP HOU M e KK EX
14 15 Taylor,Chris SO LAD F p s
15 17 Mejia,Francisco C SDP M p a EX
16 14 Lucchesi,Joey SP SDP M e k inj- e
17 17 Givens,Mychal rp BAL e KK sv-
18 19 Chirinos,Robinson C HOU M PW -AV Nw
19 19 Bruce,Jay O1 SEA M P+ a INJ Nw
20 34 Morales,Kendrys D TOR M p Ag
21 21 Toussaint,Touki SP ATL e k EX
22 21 Weaver,Luke SP ARZ M e Nw
23 22 Jeffress,Jeremy rp MLW ER k sv- Rg-
24 26 Calhoun,Kole O ANA F
25 27 Familia,Jeurys rp NYM E+ KK Nw
26 27 Holland,Derek SP SFG M
27 28 Nunez,Eduardo 23 BOS M s AV –
28 32 LeBlanc,Wade SP SEA M
29 32 Tapia,Raimel O COL SB AV EX
30 32 Kela,Keone rp PIT ER K+
31 35 Hanson,Alen 2O SFG M SB e
32 40 Smith,Kevan C ANA inj- e
33 34 Bichette,Bo S TOR p s AV EX
34 36 Tellez,Rowdy 1 TOR p a EX
35 36 Solarte,Yangervis 32 TOR M a Rg+ INJ
36 39 Owings,Chris O KCR M s a Nw
37 36 Fried,Max SP ATL e KK inj- EX
38 42 Armstrong,Shawn rp SEA e KK e
39 40 Stammen,Craig rp SDP ER k
40 40 Pena,Felix SP ANA M e k e
41 33 Gonzalez,Carlos O COL M p a
42 44 Wisdom,Patrick 3 TEX P+ EX
43 41 Sisco,Chance C BAL M -AV EX
44 42 Montgomery,Mike rp CHC M e
45 46 Riddle,J.T. S MIA F inj- e
46 47 Black,Ray rp SFG e K+ EX
47 50 Reynolds,Mark 1 COL PW
48 50 Quantrill,Cal SP SDP -ER EX
49 50 Siri,Jose O CIN PW S+ -AV EX
50 50 Maybin,Cameron O SF

 

 

BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av * Pk Rg Av- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
Drft ADP PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv * Pk Rg Er- Inj Ex Nw Ag Pk Rg
15 17 Mejia,Francisco C SDP M p a EX
18 19 Chirinos,Robinson C HOU M PW -AV Nw
32 40 Smith,Kevan C ANA inj- e
43 41 Sisco,Chance C BAL M -AV EX
20 34 Morales,Kendrys D TOR M p Ag
5 5 Carpenter,Matt 13 STL F P+ a *
7 6 Aguilar,Jesus 1 MLW F P+ a e
34 36 Tellez,Rowdy 1 TOR p a EX
47 50 Reynolds,Mark 1 COL PW
1 1 Ramirez,Jose E. 3 CLE F p s A+ *
35 36 Solarte,Yangervis 32 TOR M a Rg+ INJ
42 44 Wisdom,Patrick 3 TEX P+ EX
12 13 Schoop,Jonathan 2 MIN F p a – Nw
27 28 Nunez,Eduardo 23 BOS M s AV –
31 35 Hanson,Alen 2O SFG M SB e
6 7 Peraza,Jose S CIN F SB a –
9 10 Rosario,Amed S NYM F S+ a e
14 15 Taylor,Chris SO LAD F p s
33 34 Bichette,Bo S TOR p s AV EX
45 46 Riddle,J.T. S MIA F inj- e
4 5 Pham,Tommy O TBR F p s a *
11 10 Piscotty,Stephen O OAK F p a
19 19 Bruce,Jay O1 SEA M P+ a INJ Nw
24 26 Calhoun,Kole O ANA F
29 32 Tapia,Raimel O COL SB AV EX
36 39 Owings,Chris O KCR M s a Nw
41 33 Gonzalez,Carlos O COL M p a
49 50 Siri,Jose O CIN PW S+ -AV EX
50 50 Maybin,Cameron O SF
2 2 Cole,Gerrit SP HOU F ER KK
3 2 Snell,Blake SP TBR F ER KK Rg-
10 12 Glasnow,Tyler SP TBR M e KK Rg+ e
13 14 James,Josh SP HOU M e KK EX
16 14 Lucchesi,Joey SP SDP M e k inj- e
21 21 Toussaint,Touki SP ATL e k EX
22 21 Weaver,Luke SP ARZ M e Nw
26 27 Holland,Derek SP SFG M
28 32 LeBlanc,Wade SP SEA M
37 36 Fried,Max SP ATL e KK inj- EX
40 40 Pena,Felix SP ANA M e k e
44 42 Montgomery,Mike SP CHC M e
48 50 Quantrill,Cal SP SDP -ER EX
8 9 Giles,Ken rp TOR ER K+ SV Rg+
17 17 Givens,Mychal rp BAL e KK sv-
23 22 Jeffress,Jeremy rp MLW ER k sv- Rg-
25 27 Familia,Jeurys rp NYM E+ KK Nw
30 32 Kela,Keone rp PIT ER K+
38 42 Armstrong,Shawn rp SEA e KK e
39 40 Stammen,Craig rp SDP ER k
46 47 Black,Ray rp SFG e K+ EX

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Av (Batting/Pitching Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)

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14 Comments

  1. Jon Broska on February 20, 2019 at 12:00 pm

    So getting 2 ace SP’s in 2 & 3 is a great start to pitching, but how differently would the team be if you had gone a hitter with some speed in the 2nd or 3rd? Seems like your OF got thin rather quick. Picking 4th in an NFBC online next week and will have a similar decision to make.



  2. Richard Temkin on February 20, 2019 at 12:20 pm

    Rather than Mejia, how about drafting an OF? Or a closer and then an OF instead of Givens? Then wait on Morales and draft a catcher there. I got Rosario in round 10 of the D&H I’m currently doing so I’m with you there!



  3. Wade Michels on February 20, 2019 at 2:44 pm

    Hi Ron,

    I think you followed BABS pretty closely. And I’m so glad you came up with a better way to play. I too think projections lend themselves to a false sense of precision.

    Obviously, she loves: pham, carpenter, aguilar, glasnow, rosario etc. You can always tell the teams that listen to Babs. Generally, they all look the same.

    Now here’s a thought. If she’s right, we likely win. Victory! Yup, I just said that. Give the winnings to your spouse!

    But even if she’s wrong, I bet we’re still ultra competitive. And that’s because an off Babs will still be good enough to sidestep any season crushing mistakes.

    Once we really get that, our job is to simply execute the system. So far, I’ve been mocking with Babs and my squads are solid. It’s so much easier if we relax and trust her.

    If we can just let her do her job, she will guide us to Fantasy immortality!

    Or something like that…



  4. Jay Joyce on February 20, 2019 at 3:25 pm

    Ron, very curious as to the minor leaguers ratings. I am in a rebuild for a team I just inherited and I would like to get a good understanding of how to use her with dynasty. Also, there are quite a few players I am looking for and they are not included on the grid. Can you offer some insight to why they arent there? Is it because of not enough of a sample? Also, can you provide a BABS rating for Taylor Trammell and Alex Kirilloff? Thanks!



  5. Joseph Higgins on February 20, 2019 at 5:29 pm

    Mejia has more favorable rating on your balance sheet than on the real spread sheet…



  6. Tim Johns on February 20, 2019 at 7:41 pm

    I’m not sure how it would work, but I’m starting to think about playing time (or lack therefore more specifically) as a liability. If I draft a high skilled player with an INJ is it really any different than the same skills with M or blank in the PT column?

    If you move the playing time column to the liability side and list PT for the guys that are blank now and pt for those with M does it change the way you draft?



  7. Jim Delaney on February 20, 2019 at 8:12 pm

    Currently in a BABL slow draft, trying to listen to BABS as much as I can, I snagged Cole 43rd overall, makes me feel like I got a bargain seeing you went for him in the 2nd.

    I think you avoided the barren wasteland of 1st base pretty well, especially considering you waited after the big names were gone.

    Jose Siri… as a Reds fan, I am not sure if I want to see him in the Show this year… that might not mean things went well in Cincinnati.



  8. shandler on February 20, 2019 at 8:21 pm

    The minor league ratings are based on Major League Equivalencies which only work for Double-A and above.



  9. shandler on February 20, 2019 at 8:21 pm

    The draft began in January with an earlier version of the chart.



  10. shandler on February 20, 2019 at 8:24 pm

    The playing time ratings are based on where each player currently fits into their team’s depth chart. If a player with a major INJ liability is slated to be a starting shortstop, for instance, he’ll get an “F” rating even with that liability. Yes, that represents PT downside, but if you want to build that into your PT targets, I suppose that could be a way to go. But I think that would be a VERY risk averse approach.



  11. shandler on February 20, 2019 at 8:25 pm

    Yeah, not happy about Siri but I had just been closed out on Rajai Davis and he was the last player left with any real speed potential.



  12. Adam Caveney on February 20, 2019 at 9:36 pm

    Interesting team. I like some things about it, but I concur with your assessment that it might have trouble competing. Then again, I am only a partial BABS convert, at best. I love BABS for identifying late draft/cheap auction bargains that can pay off majorly. On the other hand, I worry that going full BABS, like you did here, will lead to RBI/Run problems that can keep a team out of contention; especially in a league like this, but even in a normal league. The lack of AB’s on your team looks scary. I am not so worried about the lack of speed—Peraza, Rosario, Pham, etc., should make you competitive enough—I think BABS does well with HR and SB, but less so with RBI and Runs–which is logical because the former two more correlate with skills and the latter two correlate more with roles.

    The pitching should be interesting. Lots of upside, lots of risk. You have two studs at SP and Lucchesi, and that is a good start, but other than those three, all of your other SP’s who will start the season in the rotation are definite ERA/WHIP blow-up risks. If you just go with relievers then, the ratios are good, but the K’s start to fall behind. If you go with the Luke Weaver’s of the world, well, are you feeling lucky?



  13. Daniel Gottfried on February 28, 2019 at 6:06 am

    I think you are in trouble in hitting but the is mostly because you took two top SP early.



  14. Daniel Gottfried on February 28, 2019 at 6:08 am

    Also, the trouble in hitting is mostly about your depth. Your starting team will be competitive.