RSOB Chapter 6c: Thirdbasemen

New to “Ron Shandler’s Other Book”? Read the Introduction. 

Third base is another position deep in power and batting average, though not quite as deep as 1B/DH. That means you will most likely be filling your corner infield slot with a firstbaseman. One thing does stand out at the hot corner – the full-timers are relatively healthy. Only four of 22 have even minor injury concerns.

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Average), Pk (Ballpark), Rg (Regression). LIABILITIES: Av (Average), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience), Nw (New team), Pk (Ballpark), Ag (Age), Rg (Regression)

Nolan Arenado, Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier and Kris Bryant lead the (P+) power brigade, though only the first two are significant batting average contributors.

Of typical first-rounders, Manny Machado (p,AV – pictured) is conspicuously absent at the very top. He is perceived as a power-speed threat, but his power skills rate out only as moderate, mostly because of his continuing ground-ball tendency and regression off of 2015’s spike. His speed does not register at all, as last year’s SBs were driven more by opportunity than skill. Add in the injury history that dogged him prior to 2015 and Machado becomes a more risky pick. According to BABS, he is a younger version of Adrian Beltre.

Matt Carpenter (PW,AV) ranks higher here than elsewhere. While we ding him for a likely regression, the underlying skills remain intriguing and compare favorable with fellow cornermen Jose Abreu and Anthony Rizzo.

Evan Longoria and Nick Castellanos represent an interesting case study in interchangeable commodities. NFBC drafters are choosing Longoria at pick #116 and Castellanos at pick #259 – 10 rounds later – yet BABS rates them both as (PW,a). I suspect this is driven by Longo’s more established track record, but their respective stat lines are well within the margin for statistical variability. Compare:

                            Longoria       Castellanos
2015 stat line             21-73-.270      15-73-.255
Forecaster projection      24-84-.264      18-79-.267
Baseball HQ update         23-82-.264      19-81-.265

One would think that, at 24, Castellanos is likely to improve. Longoria is 30 but, at worst, would be expected to at least stay the same. With HQ’s current projection, the difference between the two players is four home runs. Needless to say, there is a limited amount of trust you can place in the precise projections, but it still seems that the two players should be closer than 143 ranking spots apart.

The (p,a) pocket is an interesting group. It’s not much of a stretch to consider that Kyle Seager and Mike Moustakas are interchangeable (even though ADPs put them in the high #60s and #140s, respectively). But for those who want to take a chance on another similar player whose only liability is experience (though not insignificant), then try Jacob Lamb. Digging a little deeper, Maikel Franco has more Liability nicks. Digging into mid-timer territory, David Freese, David Wright and Jed Lowrie all share the same skill set but also share significant injury risk. And among part-timers, Juan Uribe also clocks in at (p,a). Lots of choices in this skills bucket, but all separated by wide ranges of playing time and risk.

I still have a lot of friends who are Red Sox fans from when I lived up in New England. Most of them are writing off 2015 as just an off-year for Pablo Sandoval (a) and are holding out hope for a rebound. But his profile comps are all below-average power sources. The last time Sandoval hit 20 HRs was when Carlos Correa was a high school junior. Panda is still just 29, and “once you display a skill, you own it,” so you can’t completely dismiss him… damn, there is my latent Sox fandom seeping out. Heed BABS.

Danny Valencia (PW,AV) may be an intriguing profit opportunity. While he is a mid-timer right now – he hasn’t posted full-time ABs since 2011 in Minnesota – his skills profile is comparable to that of Carpenter. Any additional playing time could make him very valuable. He’s eligible at OF as well.
Follow @RonShandler