For relievers, just worry about the saves

February 21, 2017

When it comes to the BABS philosophy of players being “more alike than they are different,” there is no better demonstration of this than with relief pitchers. There are about three dozen relievers who have a shot at about 10 or more saves; about 19 who are good bets for 30-plus. However, the top 13 arms fall into only two Asset Groups. They are all essentially interchangeable.

This following list includes all the prime candidates to see saves plus other relievers who have, at minimum, a dual-asset skill set. The non-save pitchers higher on the list are the better options for “roster filler that won’t hurt you” and could potentially help your ratios. Often, when a starter goes down, it’s better to replace him with a high-skilled reliever than a Brett Oberholtzer.

Market				Assets			Liabilities
ADP	R$	PITCHER	Tm	Er	K	Sv	Er	Inj	Ex
46	$20	Chapman,Aroldis	NYY	E+	K+	SV
50	$19	Jansen,Kenley	LA	E+	K+	SV
60	$18	Britton,Zach	BAL	E+	K+	SV
76	$15	Kimbrel,Craig	BOS	ER	K+	SV		inj-
78	$15	Oh,Seung-Hwan	STL	ER	K+	SV			e
85	$14	Osuna,Roberto	TOR	ER	K+	SV
87	$14	Diaz,Edwin	SEA	ER	K+	SV			EX
92	$13	Davis,Wade	CHC	ER	K+	SV		inj-
100	$13	Giles,Kenneth	HOU	ER	K+	SV
111	$12	Colome,Alexander	TAM	ER	K+	SV		inj-
114	$11	Allen,Cody	CLE	ER	K+	SV
119	$11	Familia,Jeurys	NYM	ER	K+	SV
130	$10	Robertson,David	CHW	ER	K+	SV
106	$12	Miller,Andrew	CLE	E+	K+	sv-
134	$10	Herrera,Kelvin	KC	ER	KK	SV
73	$16	Melancon,Mark	SF	E+	k	SV
140	$9	Ramos,A.J.	MIA	e	K+	SV
260	$3	Kelley,Shawn	WAS	ER	K+	sv-
162	$8	Watson,Tony	PIT	ER	k	SV
144	$9	Rodriguez,Francisco	DET	e	KK	SV
170	$7	Ottavino,Adam	COL	ER	KK	sv-		INJ
238	$4	Bedrosian,Cam	LAA	ER	KK	sv-		INJ	e
387	$(1)	Vizcaino,Arodys	ATL	ER	KK	sv-		INJ	e
466	$(2)	Treinen,Blake	WAS	ER	k	sv-
151	$9	Dyson,Sam	TEX	ER		SV
175	$7	Iglesias,Raisel	CIN	e	KK	sv-		INJ	e
308	$2	Knebel,Corey	MIL	e	KK	sv-		INJ	e
235	$4	Madson,Ryan	OAK	e	k	sv-
485	$(3)	Hudson,Daniel	PIT	e	k	sv-		INJ
0		Edwards,Carl	CHC	ER	K+				EX
0		Holder,Jonathan	NYY	ER	K+				EX
0		Hoyt,James	HOU	ER	K+				EX
0		Parker,Blake	LAA	ER	K+				e
166	$8	Betances,Dellin	NYY	ER	K+
249	$4	Neris,Hector	PHI	ER	K+				e
303	$2	Jones,Nate	CHW	ER	K+			inj-
366	$(0)	Barraclough,Kyle	MIA	ER	K+				e
379	$(0)	Holland,Greg	COL	ER	K+			INJ
383	$(0)	Capps,Carter	SD	ER	K+			INJ
402	$(1)	Doolittle,Sean	OAK	ER	K+			INJ
470	$(2)	Brach,Brad	BAL	ER	K+
497	$(3)	Rosenthal,Trevor	STL	ER	K+			INJ
499	$(3)	Baez,Pedro	LA	ER	K+
502	$(3)	Gregerson,Luke	HOU	ER	K+
532	$(4)	Dayton,Grant	LA	ER	K+				EX
535	$(4)	Givens,Mychal	BAL	ER	K+				e
592	$(5)	Uehara,Koji	CHC	ER	K+			INJ
600	$(5)	Smith,Will	SF	ER	K+			INJ
605	$(5)	O Day,Darren	BAL	ER	K+			INJ
620	$(5)	Jimenez,Joe	DET	ER	K+				EX
652	$(6)	Cecil,Brett	STL	ER	K+			INJ
678	$(6)	Strop,Pedro	CHC	ER	K+			inj-
311	$2	Rodney,Fernando	ARI		KK	sv-
491	$(3)	Feliz,Neftali	MIL		KK	sv-		inj-
0		Barnette,Tony	TEX	ER	KK				EX
0		Cedeno,Xavier	TAM	ER	KK
0		Tazawa,Junichi	MIA	ER	KK
295	$2	Reed,Addison	NYM	ER	KK
389	$(1)	Bush,Matt	TEX	ER	KK				e
410	$(1)	Rondon,Hector	CHC	ER	KK
457	$(2)	Hand,Brad	SD	ER	KK
528	$(4)	Harris,Will	HOU	ER	KK
540	$(4)	Cishek,Steve	SEA	ER	KK			INJ
584	$(5)	Casilla,Santiago	OAK	ER	KK
691	$(6)	Hendriks,Liam	OAK	ER	KK			inj-
693	$(6)	Zych,Tony	SEA	ER	KK			INJ	EX
695	$(6)	Blevins,Jerry	NYM	ER	KK			inj-
701	$(6)	Hochevar,Luke	FAA	ER	KK			INJ
724	$(7)	Simmons,Shae	SEA	ER	KK			INJ	EX
0		Fields,Joshua	LA	e	K+
0		Grimm,Justin	CHC	e	K+
0		Rivero,Armando	ATL	e	K+				EX
0		Solis,Sammy	WAS	e	K+			INJ	e
426	$(2)	Benoit,Joaquin	PHI	e	K+			inj-
489	$(3)	Boxberger,Brad	TAM	e	K+			INJ
574	$(4)	Feliz,Michael	HOU	e	K+				e
662	$(6)	Burdi,Zack	CHW	e	K+				EX
687	$(6)	Kela,Keone	TEX	e	K+			INJ	e
298	$2	Kintzler,Brandon	MIN	e		sv-		inj-
248	$4	Maurer,Brandon	SD		k	sv-
0		Barnes,Daniel	TOR	ER	k				EX
0		Krol,Ian	ATL	ER	k				e
428	$(2)	Ziegler,Brad	MIA	ER	k
445	$(2)	Lorenzen,Michael	CIN	ER	k			INJ	e
469	$(2)	Jeffress,Jeremy	TEX	ER	k
610	$(5)	Law,Derek	SF	ER	k			inj-	EX
645	$(6)	Smith,Carson	BOS	ER	k			INJ	e
669	$(6)	Shaw,Bryan	CLE	ER	k
670	$(6)	Kelly,Joe	BOS	ER	k			INJ
0		Chacin,Alejandro	CIN	e	KK				EX
0		Coulombe,Daniel	OAK	e	KK				e
0		Dunn,Mike	COL	e	KK			INJ
0		Farquhar,Daniel	TAM	e	KK
0		Loup,Aaron	TOR	e	KK			INJ
0		Scribner,Evan	SEA	e	KK			INJ
0		Smith,Chris	TOR	e	KK				e
435	$(2)	Dull,Ryan	OAK	e	KK				e
515	$(3)	McGee,Jake	COL	e	KK			INJ
541	$(4)	Strickland,Hunter	SF	e	KK				e
543	$(4)	Siegrist,Kevin	STL	e	KK
553	$(4)	Storen,Drew	CIN	e	KK
559	$(4)	Rivero,Felipe	PIT	e	KK				e
578	$(5)	Soria,Joakim	KC	e	KK			inj-
624	$(5)	Clippard,Tyler	NYY	e	KK
646	$(6)	Wilson,Justin	DET	e	KK			inj-
705	$(6)	Salas,Fernando	NYM	e	KK
0		Gearrin,Cory	SF	e	k			INJ	e
0		Heller,Ben	NYY	e	k				EX
0		Hildenberger,Trevor	MIN	e	k				EX
0		Layne,Tom	NYY	e	k				e
0		Leone,Dominic	TOR	e	k				e
0		Mantiply,Joe	NYY	e	k				EX
0		McAllister,Zach	CLE	e	k			INJ
0		Ramirez,Noe	BOS	e	k				EX
0		Roe,Chaz	ATL	e	k				e
0		Ross,Robbie	BOS	e	k
0		Rzepczynski,Marc	SEA	e	k
0		Socolovich,Miguel	STL	e	k				EX
0		Torres,Jose	SD	e	k				EX
433	$(2)	Phelps,David	MIA	e	k			INJ
436	$(2)	Triggs,Andrew	OAK	e	k				EX
504	$(3)	Perkins,Glen	MIN	e	k			INJ
530	$(4)	Torres,Carlos	MIL	e	k
627	$(5)	Ramos,Edubray	PHI	e	k				EX
644	$(6)	Biagini,Joe	TOR	e	k				e
657	$(6)	Blanton,Joe	LA	e	k
667	$(6)	Glover,Koda	WAS	e	k				EX
680	$(6)	Cahill,Trevor	SD	e	k			inj-
685	$(6)	Lyons,Tyler	STL	e	k			INJ	e
702	$(6)	Neshek,Pat	PHI	e	k
215	$5	Johnson,Jim	ATL			sv-		inj-
381	$(0)	Street,Huston	LAA			sv-	-ER	INJ
425	$(2)	Gomez,Jeanmar	PHI			sv-	-ER

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Er (Pitching Effectiveness), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves potential)
LIABILITIES: Er (Pitching Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience)

Whether we like it or not, this position is mostly all about saves. The skills that these pitchers bring to the table are nice, but individually, their innings will rarely move the needle on your bottom line. It’s rare that you hear someone say that they won their league because of Kenley Jansen’s ERA. Aroldis Chapman (pictured) and his strikeouts will come in handy if your starting pitchers have lesser dominance, but if you are counting on him to make you competitive in that category, you have more work to do. Think about it: the difference between him and any other decent closer is about 30 strikeouts. If your team is going to accumulate 1,300 or 1,400 Ks, those 30 are hardly going to make a difference.

This comes into play right at the top. The elite (E+,K+,SV) Asset Group accurately boasts the top closers off the board. However, while they are being drafted within 14 picks or a few dollars of one another, you have to keep saying, “It’s all about the saves.” So yes, Chapman will give you Ks, but of the three, he’s the only one who’s never saved 40 games in a season. Yet he’s being drafted first.

I prefer to fish in the (ER,K+,SV) group. It’s 10 players deep, with only a few spotted Liabilities, but has a spread of over 50 draft spots. Craig Kimbrel remains the anchor, with Seung-Hwan Oh and Edwin Diaz as recency bias plays. For the price, I’d be perfectly happy with David Robertson. I’d also be willing to possibly backfill Jeurys Familia’s roster spot for a month to get the history of 40-save performance that he provides. And sure, I’d even take a chance that Andrew Miller doesn’t steal too many save opps from Cody Allen.

You don’t want to go too much further down the list to get your frontline closer.

When it comes to your second or third closer, you just want to find any path to ninth inning work. Being a fickle role, any potential closer is going to be a risk to hold a job. So you have to decide whether to speculate on someone who owns at least part of a role – regardless of skill – or someone who has elite skill but no clear path to ninth inning work.

Of those with some path to saves, it’s perfectly fine to wait for the Rodney/Feliz group, the Kintzler/Maurer group or even Johnson/Street/Gomez. It behooves me to note that I had to delete more than 120 higher-skilled non-saves relievers in order to get to that final trio onto the above ranking list.

If you prefer to speculate on skills, you need go no further than the (ER,K+) group that runs nearly two dozen deep. Recognize that, when it comes to skill – realistically, just the ability to shut down a few batters in an inning of work – the only difference between these pitchers and the comparable (ER,K+,SV) arms is the inning in which they are being allowed to do their work.

I’ll be talking more about closers beginning this weekend at First Pitch Forums.

Posted in RSOB and tagged BABS, fantasy baseball, relievers, Ron Shandler

28 Comments

david hinsdale on February 21, 2017 at 9:16 am

Will we be seeing an AL-only and NL-only BABS or should I work with these?
shandler on February 21, 2017 at 9:47 am

There will be a master list update this Friday, but for mixed leagues. We’re hoping the BABS database will be ready shortly – that will provide the ability to sort by league. If it’s not, I’ll post league-specific charts in mid-March.
Kevin Sowizrol on February 21, 2017 at 12:08 pm

Will the BABS data base be able to sort by position like these articles have been doing? Looking forward to First Pitch this Saturday, See you there!!
shandler on February 21, 2017 at 12:13 pm

Yes, that’s the plan. Do come up and introduce yourself this weekend. If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up.
Matthew Ferrara on February 21, 2017 at 12:14 pm

Will the BABS database be the same as the preliminary BABS database that is on the site now?
shandler on February 21, 2017 at 12:17 pm

There will be an update to the current spreadsheet file (this Friday) but the database is a searchable feature that can generate ranking reports by league, by position, overall, and provide multi-year scans of each player’s BABS history. Launch has been pushed back due to technical issues but we hope to have them resolved soon.
Jonathan Tomevi on February 22, 2017 at 6:44 am

I am starting a 30 team Dynasty league that is using daily H2H points. First year slow draft is beginning next week and I am working on putting together a strategy for building my roster using BABS. I have 25 MLB spots and 15 MILB spots. I assume I should work on filling the majority of the MLB spots first and then dive into the MILB ones. Thoughts? I assume most other owners are going to overpay for top prospects in this format and I think this is an opportunity to build a very solid MLB roster with high-upside/high-risk prospects that may come cheaper. I am using BABS to help build the MLB roster just like I would a regular redraft league for the most part. For the prospects, there isn’t BABS data obviously so I am using Minor League Analyst to look at players with good BB%, CT%, Eye (Hitters) or CTL, DOM, CMD (Pitchers). Do you see this is a viable outline? Is there anything to pay attention to or other advice you have for building a deep dynasty team? I understand this isn’t your particular area of expertise.
shandler on February 22, 2017 at 8:52 am

Sounds to me you’re doing all the right things. Two points I’d make… First, you are correct that whenever someone starts a dynasty league, the immediate impulse is to target the best prospects. People forget that you can still win THIS YEAR by focusing on major league players. Second, I have found that a great source of early dynasty profit is to target top prospects who have failed/struggled in their first exposure to the majors. Their stock is down, but their skill hasn’t necessarily gone away. I’m sure you’d be able to pluck a Jose Berrios or A.J. Reed far later in the draft than you normally would. Think about how patience paid off for owners of Manny Machado, and possibly now Byron Buxton!
Jonathan Tomevi on February 22, 2017 at 1:10 pm

Thanks for the input. Trying to best combine the resources available to me and it seems like I am on the right track. I know in a dynasty set-up hitters are probably more worth an investment than pitching is, but since this is a daily points H2H format should I give pitchers a bit heavier weighting when building my roster? I am only going to be able to get 3-4 Top 100 players if I am luckly and am curious if leaving with 2 hitters and 2 pitchers should be the goal or just to take best players per BABS and fill in the gaps with upside late? Thanks!
shandler on February 22, 2017 at 1:30 pm

In a points league, yes, you should give more precedence to pitchers. Coming out of the top 100 with 2 hitters and 2 pitchers seems like a good goal so long as you don’t have to reach.
Robert Fischer on February 22, 2017 at 5:20 pm

I’m surprised in Yahoo that many use the so called” 7 inning strategy.” Load team with relievers, expose 7 innings and go for ERA, Saves and WHIP, 3 out of 5. Comment: First: Yahoo should change this rule as it’s goes against the reality of BB Second: In my admittedly limited FB experience my observation is that although this strategy seems to win more than lose I haven’t seen it win any league championships.
Justin Morrow on February 22, 2017 at 5:37 pm

I have the chance to keep both Osuna $7 and Giles $1, but I am worried about Osuna’s playoff innings and now WBC. Should I be? I can keep 8 players. Is keeping two CPs logical, or should I just keep Giles for a buck? Too volatile a position, but your book and this article show value opps, moreso for Giles. Thank you.
shandler on February 22, 2017 at 6:36 pm

Depending upon your particular league, it’s usually not advisable to protect multiple closers. It is a volatile role. You have two closers at very good prices so it might be worth it, but it depends on who else you are protecting. Osuna’s playoff innings and WBC are irrelevant.
shandler on February 22, 2017 at 6:37 pm

I agree. Most leagues have a minimum innings requirement. But I have seen teams win with an all-reliever strategy.
Jonathan Tomevi on February 22, 2017 at 7:56 pm

I have used this strategy before in 10 and 12 team mixed leagues before and won. I didn’t punt SP though and was able to stream enough good starters during the season to not finish last in Wins or Ks. I have played in a league where K was K/9 instead, so the “7 Inning Strategy” actually only hurt Wins since RP K/9 would also work in your favor. Not something I actively try to employ anymore though.
Ilovejimbowden on February 23, 2017 at 1:40 pm

Ron I was curious as to how the BABS book and these articles apply to serpentine H2H drafts? I’m fairly new to fantasy baseball(from football) and wasn’t confident that Roto type games were best for me as I don’t have that type of fantasy experience. Should I apply the thoughts and ideas in both BABS and accompanying articles differently? Thanks for your time.
shandler on February 23, 2017 at 1:46 pm

The BABS Project eBook has a chapter on leagues with alternative rules. H2H application is included there.
Dave Dube on February 24, 2017 at 10:50 am

Sorry this question is not specifically about relievers, but I’ll try to tie it in. League format is AL only 9-team $26.00 budget old school 4×4. Keeper league. Can keep 5 players max, max 3 year contract. 2 year inflation cost .30 + original acquisition cost and final year is .50 + oac. Every year auction values in our league really don’t really compare to published auction values for the most compare able formats like 12-team al only 5×5. Usually our auction prices are higher. The explanation would seem that since our player pool is not as shallow as a 12 team league that our .10 players will hurt us less than $1 players in a 12-team format. For example I can keep Cody Allen for $2.60 this year. Last year he went for $2.30. Top of the closer market is usually $2.60ish. All things considered for our league Allen seems like fair value, but higher than you list him in babs. Can you rationalize keeping Allen at$2.60? Hoping to catch the Boston First Pitch forum on march 3rd.
shandler on February 24, 2017 at 10:54 am

Did you figure in draft inflation? An at-par $2.60 player in a keeper league with any type of inflation will be a good buy at that price. However, that is assuming there is not a glut of closers available on draft day. Note that BABS market values do not take inflation into account.
Jay Joyce on February 24, 2017 at 3:01 pm

I pretty much won my league last year from what I think was a violent corps of rhp. I had Bedrosian, Diaz, Watson, Herrera, Chapman, Colome and Thornburg. I went to bed one night and woke up with an 18 save week! Grabbed everyone through the course of the season with high BABS ratings.
Thomas Dersham on February 25, 2017 at 12:54 pm

Hi Ron, I’m in an AL only 12 team 4×4 league with no WHIP. In the closer venue, closers tend to go much higher than than priced because it is a 3 year keeper league making closers very valuable. With a typical $260 budget, I nabbed Robertson last year at a costly $19 bid, and this year I’m very nervous about keeping him with trade rumors swirling around him (maybe he will be traded to Nats before season starts so I don’t need to worry about this.) I saw a question above kind of along the same lines, so this might be repetitive. I guess my basic question is how do I calculate draft inflation? Is there a formula or idea that might work in this type of deep league with up to 15 keepers per year? Also, if Robertson isn’t traded by my draft date (4/8), would you keep him, or would you too worry about losing him during the season to NL? Maybe that’s just another risk factor as would be experience or injury? Thanks Ron!
shandler on February 25, 2017 at 10:40 pm

I have a small Excel file that you can use to calculate draft inflation in your league. I’ll post it in the CONTROL CENTER.
Dave Dube on February 26, 2017 at 6:41 am

Thomas thanks for posting this question. I posted the question above and I also have never tried figured in draft inflation before this discussion. Thanks for posting the excel file Ron! I hope to meet you in Boston.
Thomas Dersham on February 26, 2017 at 10:02 am

Awesome thanks Ron, look forward to checking it out. Enjoy FP today in St. Louis, wish I were there!
Thomas Dersham on February 26, 2017 at 3:19 pm

Ok another question regarding the draft inflation calculator…I can’t say I’ve ever quite grasped “earnings” for a player. Is it specific to each league and the categories used in the league? Should I draw up my own values in the league, or use a website which produces projected earnings? If I’m using projected earnings, isn’t that going outside of BABS and trying to predict projections? Maybe I’m getting too deep in sorting all this out, I guess I would just like advice on how earnings are both projected and earned?
shandler on February 26, 2017 at 8:06 pm

Yes, you should just use whatever set of projections you are comfortable with. And yes, that is in conflict with BABS. I have not thought much about how you can calculate an inflation rate without having baseline values. Food -for-thought for another time, I suppose.

Earnings are what a player’s statistical performance during a season generates in Rotisserie dollars, as calculated by a formula. We can project what that might be (projected earnings) or cite what the player actually accomplished (actual earnings, or earned earnings, though that’s an awkward description).
Thomas Dersham on February 26, 2017 at 11:47 pm

Sounds good, and if you’re able to figure out how to establish inflation rate without baseline values, I look forward to that article some say as well!
Ralph Boccella on February 27, 2017 at 11:12 am

I had one manager use this strategy one year, and it worked because Yahoo doesn’t have a minimum IP limit. The league went crazy and we put in an artificial limit the following year. Hate the strategy but it worked.