Outfielders provide skill, experience but health risk
As always, outfield offers a little of everything. Power, speed, batting average – take your pick. However, there are mine fields as well; about 70 percent of the top names come along with some injury risk. Still, this position is also one of the most experienced; about 85 percent of the players at the top end of the pool are established veterans. That lends itself to at least some stability with your investments here.
Here are the BABS ratings for the outfielders who will potentially provide some positive value to your team:
| MARKET | Assets | Liabilities | ||||||||||
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Av | Inj | Ex | |
| 3 | $47 | Betts,Mookie | BOS | F | p | SB | A+ | inj- | ||||
| 1 | $58 | Trout,Mike | LAA | F | P+ | s | AV | * | ||||
| 36 | $23 | Pollock,A.J. | ARI | F | p | SB | AV | INJ | ||||
| 92 | $13 | Dahl,David | COL | F | p | SB | AV | EX | ||||
| 43 | $21 | Cruz,Nelson | SEA | F | P+ | AV | ||||||
| 52 | $19 | Martinez,J.D. | DET | F | P+ | AV | inj- | |||||
| 16 | $31 | Blackmon,Charlie | COL | F | p | s | AV | inj- | ||||
| 187 | $7 | Fowler,Dexter | STL | F | p | SB | a | * | inj- | |||
| 25 | $26 | Marte,Starling | PIT | F | S+ | AV | ||||||
| 58 | $18 | Cespedes,Yoenis | NYM | F | PW | AV | inj- | |||||
| 65 | $17 | Gonzalez,Carlos | COL | F | PW | AV | inj- | |||||
| 146 | $9 | Tomas,Yasmany | ARI | F | PW | AV | ||||||
| 40 | $22 | Stanton,Giancarlo | MIA | F | P+ | a | * | INJ | ||||
| 95 | $13 | Kemp,Matt | ATL | F | P+ | a | ||||||
| 99 | $13 | Davis,Khristopher | OAK | F | P+ | a | ||||||
| 214 | $5 | Grichuk,Randal | STL | F | P+ | a | e | |||||
| 52 | $19 | Braun,Ryan | MIL | F | p | AV | ||||||
| 57 | $18 | Yelich,Christian | MIA | F | p | AV | ||||||
| 264 | $3 | Drury,Brandon | ARI | F | p | AV | INJ | e | ||||
| 10 | $35 | Harper,Bryce | WAS | F | PW | a | * | inj- | ||||
| 69 | $16 | McCutchen,Andrew | PIT | F | PW | a | * | inj- | ||||
| 118 | $11 | Bautista,Jose | TOR | F | PW | a | * | inj- | ||||
| 139 | $9 | Bradley,Jackie | BOS | F | PW | a | ||||||
| 274 | $3 | Granderson,Curtis | NYM | F | PW | a | * | |||||
| 298 | $2 | Dickerson,Corey | TAM | F | PW | a | inj- | |||||
| 195 | $6 | Inciarte,Ender | ATL | F | SB | AV | INJ | |||||
| 68 | $16 | Polanco,Gregory | PIT | F | p | a | inj- | |||||
| 120 | $11 | Jones,Adam | BAL | F | p | a | ||||||
| 131 | $10 | Piscotty,Stephen | STL | F | p | a | e | |||||
| 168 | $8 | Ozuna,Marcell | MIA | F | p | a | inj- | |||||
| 187 | $7 | Calhoun,Kole | LAA | F | p | a | ||||||
| 199 | $6 | Pence,Hunter | SF | F | p | a | INJ | |||||
| 208 | $5 | Beltran,Carlos | HOU | F | p | a | ||||||
| 231 | $4 | Kepler,Max | MIN | F | p | a | e | |||||
| 257 | $3 | Holliday,Matt | NYY | F | p | a | INJ | |||||
| 146 | $9 | Buxton,Byron | MIN | F | p | S+ | AV | e | ||||
| 61 | $18 | Trumbo,Mark | BAL | F | P+ | |||||||
| 146 | $9 | Duvall,Adam | CIN | F | P+ | e | ||||||
| 136 | $10 | Eaton,Adam | WAS | F | s | AV | ||||||
| 125 | $10 | Herrera,Odubel | PHI | F | SB | a | ||||||
| 129 | $10 | Cain,Lorenzo | KC | F | SB | a | inj- | |||||
| 195 | $6 | Kiermaier,Kevin | TAM | F | SB | a | INJ | |||||
| 160 | $8 | Gomez,Carlos | TEX | F | p | s | inj- | |||||
| 54 | $19 | Hamilton,Billy | CIN | F | S+ | inj- | ||||||
| 33 | $24 | Springer,George | HOU | F | PW | * | inj- | |||||
| 83 | $14 | Upton,Justin | DET | F | PW | |||||||
| 272 | $3 | Santana,Domingo | MIL | F | PW | INJ | e | |||||
| 315 | $1 | Gordon,Alex | KC | F | PW | * | INJ | |||||
| 61 | $18 | Desmond,Ian | COL | F | s | a | ||||||
| 251 | $4 | Ellsbury,Jacoby | NYY | F | s | a | inj- | |||||
| 276 | $3 | Gardner,Brett | NYY | F | s | a | * | inj- | ||||
| 202 | $6 | Brantley,Michael | CLE | F | AV | INJ | ||||||
| 254 | $4 | Cabrera,Melky | CHW | F | AV | |||||||
| 356 | $0 | Span,Denard | SF | F | AV | |||||||
| 304 | $2 | Conforto,Michael | NYM | M | P+ | a | e | |||||
| 289 | $2 | Soler,Jorge | KC | F | p | INJ | e | |||||
| 360 | $0 | Werth,Jayson | WAS | F | p | * | inj- | |||||
| 376 | $(0) | Judge,Aaron | NYY | F | P+ | AV | inj- | EX | ||||
| 392 | $(1) | Rosario,Eddie | MIN | M | p | s | a | – | inj- | e | ||
| 138 | $10 | Benintendi,Andrew | BOS | M | p | AV | inj- | EX | ||||
| 279 | $3 | Peralta,David | ARI | M | p | AV | INJ | |||||
| 581 | $(5) | Ethier,Andre | LA | M | p | AV | INJ | |||||
| 332 | $1 | Dyson,Jarrod | SEA | M | S+ | a | ||||||
| 206 | $6 | Mazara,Nomar | TEX | F | a | e | ||||||
| 258 | $3 | Heyward,Jason | CHC | F | a | |||||||
| 293 | $2 | Pillar,Kevin | TOR | F | a | |||||||
| 357 | $0 | Markakis,Nick | ATL | F | a | |||||||
| 184 | $7 | Bruce,Jay | NYM | M | PW | a | ||||||
| 299 | $2 | Naquin,Tyler | CLE | M | PW | a | EX | |||||
| 198 | $6 | Broxton,Keon | MIL | M | PW | S+ | AV | EX | ||||
| 397 | $(1) | Saunders,Michael | PHI | F | PW | * | AV | inj- | ||||
| 335 | $1 | Revere,Ben | LAA | M | SB | AV | – | inj- | ||||
| 214 | $5 | Puig,Yasiel | LA | M | p | a | INJ | |||||
| 336 | $1 | Choo,Shin-Soo | TEX | M | p | a | * | INJ | ||||
| 390 | $(1) | Dickerson,Alex | SD | M | p | a | EX | |||||
| 340 | $1 | Souza,Steven | TAM | F | p | AV | INJ | e | ||||
| 66 | $17 | Schwarber,Kyle | CHC | M | P+ | * | INJ | EX | ||||
| 203 | $6 | Pederson,Joc | LA | M | P+ | * | ||||||
| 503 | $(3) | Aoki,Norichika | HOU | M | s | AV | ||||||
| 266 | $3 | Margot,Manuel | SD | M | SB | a | EX | |||||
| 366 | $(0) | Smith,Mallex | TAM | M | SB | a | INJ | EX | ||||
| 434 | $(2) | Brinson,Lewis | MIL | M | p | s | inj- | EX | ||||
| 239 | $4 | Martin,Leonys | SEA | F | SB | AV | ||||||
| 235 | $4 | Davis,Rajai | OAK | M | S+ | |||||||
| 290 | $2 | Jankowski,Travis | SD | M | S+ | e | ||||||
| 433 | $(2) | Garcia,Avisail | CHW | F | INJ | |||||||
| 454 | $(2) | Haniger,Mitch | SEA | M | PW | EX | ||||||
| 286 | $2 | Reddick,Josh | HOU | M | s | a | INJ | |||||
| 419 | $(1) | Pagan,Angel | FAN | M | s | a | INJ | |||||
| 452 | $(2) | Chisenhall,Lonnie | CLE | M | s | a | ||||||
| 312 | $2 | Upton,Melvin | TOR | M | p | SB | AV | |||||
| 330 | $1 | Toles,Andrew | LA | M | AV | EX | ||||||
| 436 | $(2) | Kim,Hyun-Soo | BAL | M | AV | * | EX | |||||
| 468 | $(2) | Smith,Seth | BAL | M | p | * | ||||||
| 516 | $(3) | Franklin,Nick | TAM | M | p | s | AV | e | ||||
| 0 | Cozens,Dylan | PHI | P+ | s | EX | |||||||
| 386 | $(1) | Schebler,Scott | CIN | M | a | EX | ||||||
| 496 | $(3) | Jay,Jon | CHC | M | a | INJ | ||||||
| 625 | $(5) | Winker,Jesse | CIN | M | a | * | inj- | EX | ||||
| 653 | $(6) | Young,Chris | BOS | PW | a | INJ | ||||||
| 673 | $(6) | Alcantara,Arismendy | CIN | PW | S+ | AV | EX | |||||
| 237 | $4 | Renfroe,Hunter | SD | M | PW | AV | EX | |||||
| 572 | $(4) | Rasmus,Colby | TAM | M | PW | AV | ||||||
| 518 | $(3) | Tapia,Raimel | COL | SB | AV | – | EX | |||||
| 268 | $3 | Maybin,Cameron | LAA | M | s | INJ | ||||||
| 406 | $(1) | Altherr,Aaron | PHI | M | s | INJ | EX | |||||
| 636 | $(5) | Bourn,Michael | FAA | M | s | |||||||
| 0 | De Aza,Alejandro | OAK | p | a | ||||||||
| 491 | $(3) | Joyce,Matt | OAK | M | p | * | AV | |||||
| 0 | O Brien,Peter | KC | P+ | AV- | EX | |||||||
| 689 | $(6) | Gutierrez,Franklin | LA | P+ | INJ | |||||||
| 509 | $(3) | Orlando,Paulo | KC | SB | a | – | e | |||||
| 672 | $(6) | Suzuki,Ichiro | MIA | SB | a | |||||||
| 0 | Patterson,Jordan | COL | p | s | EX | |||||||
| 515 | $(3) | Meadows,Austin | PIT | PW | SB | * | AV | EX | ||||
| 388 | $(1) | Quinn,Roman | PHI | S+ | INJ | EX | ||||||
| 601 | $(5) | Hicks,Aaron | NYY | M | INJ | |||||||
| 632 | $(5) | Almonte,Abraham | CLE | M | e | |||||||
| 664 | $(6) | Crisp,Coco | CLE | M | INJ | |||||||
| 675 | $(6) | Coats,Jason | TAM | M | EX | |||||||
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help)
LIABILITIES: Av (Batting Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience)
Get past Mike and Mookie at the top and you have the always-interesting (p,SB,AV) asset group. Last year, this group was composed of Betts, Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte and AJ Pollock. Injury and development path set each one in a different direction, but Pollock remains. A healthy season could yield excellent results.
But you can wait a few rounds and pay $10 less for David Dahl (pictured). Gerardo Parra’s $8 million contract seemingly blocks Dahl in the outfield but Parra’s feeble (a) rating seems little obstacle for the Rockie’s skills upside.
The (PW,AV) group offers two top-line players and a huge profit opportunity. Yoenis Cespedes and Carlos Gonzalez are cornerstone players but both also have some injury risk. You can wait 80 picks, save your risk budget and pick similarly-skilled Yasmany Tomas instead.
Giancarlo Stanton (P+,a) has finally dropped out of the first round but his current slot shows that drafters have not forgotten the power potential. That’s all well and good, but the risk remains. About 50 players later are Matt Kemp and Khris Davis. Kemp has been underperforming his power rating but he’s shown the skills before; Davis might be a more palatable comp. But you can wait yet another 100 draft picks and grab up Randal Grichuk, who profiles with similar skill, though owning some Experience risk.
The six-player (PW,a) group is intriguing given its apparent breadth of talent. Leading the draft board is Bryce Harper, who remains a first round pick for the third time in his career despite having generated first round earnings only once. Wishful thinking, fear of losing out, etc. etc. Yes that upside is viable – once you display a skill, yada, yada, yada – but it’s unfortunate that you have to burn a first round pick and own the risk in order to find out.
As big as Harper’s numbers might be, it’s not a first round decision I like to make. In last month’s FSTA experts draft, I passed on Harper at No. 11 in lieu of Charlie Blackmon, a pick that drew the on-air bemusement of SiriusXM analyst – and ex-big league general manager – Jim Bowden.
If you pass on Harper, you can wait a few rounds and be faced with an equally risky decision in Andrew McCutchen. It’s a little easier to burn a Liability here, but the group is deep enough that you can wait even longer. Jose Bautista, Jackie Bradley, Curtis Granderson, Corey Dickerson all have similar skills at a wide range of draft prices. Each has some contextual variable of note – Bautista’s health, Bradley’s youth, Granderson’s age, Dickerson’s off-2016 – but all are comparable commodities. Pick your price point.
The nine-man (p,a) group has many decisions based purely on price point as well. Let’s look at two of the players in particular. Gregory Polanco is the high draft spot of the group, at No. 68 ($16). Polanco swapped his SB output for a bit more power 2016 and is projected to repeat his 20-HR, .260ish BA line this year. Over 160 spots later in the draft, you can get a player who is currently projected for 20 HRs and a .260ish BA as well – Max Kepler. Kepler may steal fewer bases (maybe 10 fewer) and have more Experience risk, but the draft day discount for an otherwise equivalent commodity is huge.
There are lots more profit opportunities up and down this list. Some are better than others, but all are interesting.
Note some these interesting comparisons from among the mid-timer and part-time players… If the Mets trade an outfielder, you can draft Michael Conforto (P+,a) about 90 picks after the comparable Randall Grichuk… Andrew Benintendi and David Peralta could be considered Lite versions of Ryan Braun at a fraction of the cost… Manuel Margot and Mallex Smith are rookie speed comps for Odubel Herrera and Lorenzo Cain…
There are tons more. Happy prospecting!
Really like Dahl as well but his inexperience makes me a bit nervous.
Overall my dynasty league OF is full of question marks. We have OF broken down into LF/CF/RF so it’s a bit harder to fill the slots. Here’s who I have:
Dahl ($1), Schwarber ($30), Kepler ($5), Brantley ($11), Herrera ($2), and Carlos Gomez ($20) (I also have Jose Ramirez at $3 who can slot in at LF). Anyone have any thoughts? Hard to judge I guess without knowing the rest of my team. it’s a 10-team league overall, $290 budget.
I can’t lie – I based my entire OF strategy in my 50-round NFBC Draft Champions league on BABS. Wound up with Pollock, Blackmon, Bautista, Bradley and Fowler as my five starters. You don’t have to tell me it’s an awesome outfield. I already know. 😉
Ron
First off thanks for all of the work you do. The Baseball Forecaster has been my fantasy bible for many years. I love the BABS concept , but I must admit I was not very successful in using it last year ( my fault not yours ). I think I am one of your readers who had a hard time wrapping my head around the concept completely. Old dog new tricks and all of that.
As for my question, what is the difference between your $ values on players in the Baseball Forecaster and the ones you use in the BABS ratings? In a keeper league I am in I kept players like Kepler , Buxton, and S. Marte, partially because your BF value’s said that I had them at a nice value. Your BABS $ ratings negates these values. Are the BABS ratings just an ADP type industry standard? are your BF $ values more in line on what you think they will be worth ? Do I have reason to be nervous about keeping the wrong keepers? Thanks in advance for your response and keep up the great work.
The dollar values in the Forecaster are driven by each player’s projection. They represent what each player is potentially worth. The BABS dollar values are driven by the ADPs. They represent what the market is paying for each player. Two completely different things.
okay, I admit I forgot. why do you have betts listed above trout?
also…Cruz looks real good here….if I can get him in the mid 30’s is that a bargain?
thx
Martin
I mean 30th pick not$, do we have and edit button?
Martin
Drury’s ranking jumps off the page to me. Wow. I recall the Dbacks leadership was high on him as a hitter last spring. The Forecaster metrics don’t scream at me, though. What does BABS particularly like?
My intuition is that Betts top ranking is due to his SB plus A+ synergy (the only OF with both). Speed is a rarer skill than Power, so this nudges him ahead.
Same power and BA profile as Yelich and Braun but with added risk.
It’s an outfield riddled with Liabilities. Huge potential upside but not a lot you can count on with much confidence.
That’s what I was afraid of, and I totally agree.
Is there a location that explains any potential changes in the headings? For example, I see that * now outlines OBP Help – is that the only change or are there others? Curious if it is in one central spot. If not, no worries. Figured I would ask.
Thanks
In the Members Only Control Center the Jan 20th article, “BABS 2017: WHAT’S NEW, EARLY CHARTS, MORE” described the OBP changes that you are referring to.
Ron,
Is there any use in trying to equate the BPV values in the Forecaster with BABS? For example Cruz and J.D. Martinez are virtual clones in BABS, yet in the Forecaster Cruz has a BPV of 53, while Martinez has one of only 40. Both represent overall skill, right? Am trying to compare apples and oranges?
Numbers? Numbers?! We don’ need no stinkin’ numbers! BABS hates numbers. And you demonstrate exactly why she hates numbers. The difference between 53 and 40 is garbage. Errant gust of wind. Rounding error. So no, you can’t equate BPV with BABS. They’re not even spelled the same.
Update: I swung a few deals and picked up Marte ($29) in a deal for Schwarber (I also received Kinsler), and Adam Eaton ($10) in another trade. So now I have:
Marte, Eaton, Dahl, Kepler, Gomez, Brantley, Jose Ramirez. I’m much more comfortable now 🙂
On that subject….those dollar values are based on 15 team mixed leagues…yes? If so, do you suggest teking an avg of multiple site projections for AL/NL Only 12 team leagues and inserting them for auction day?
Yes, they are based on a 15-team mixed league, but their intent is only to provide a rough value baseline (i.e. the public values Player A higher than Player B, etc.). The actual dollar numbers are irrelevant (i.e. it doesn’t matter that Braun is being bought at $19 and Yelich at $18, etc.), so providing more sets of data will only confuse things. That was the long answer. The short answer is “No, at least not for BABS. You can do whatever you want for your own needs.”
Hi,
What a leagues that Do Not use dollar values.
What do you recommend; BABS concept or Forecaster?
It’s not an either or question. Each approaches the fantasy game differently. Both can be used for leagues without dollar values. You need to decide what works better for you.