2B Talent is Shallow, Concentrated
Despite some assertions to the contrary, second base is not a deep position. There are only 14 dual asset full-time players, which means someone in a 15-team mixed league is going to have to go with a lesser commodity. Of those 14, only nine are power contributors, and only two of those have more than moderate power. However, you can get your speed and batting average here, and most importantly, the top end of the talent pool has little to no risk.
Here are the BABS ratings for the second-basemen who will potentially provide some positive value to your team:
| MARKET | Assets | Liabilities | ||||||||||
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Av | Inj | Ex | |
| 11 | $34 | Turner,Trea | WAS | F | p | SB | AV | EX | ||||
| 31 | $24 | Dozier,Brian | MIN | F | PW | s | a | |||||
| 35 | $23 | Murphy,Daniel | WAS | F | p | A+ | ||||||
| 88 | $14 | LeMahieu,DJ | COL | F | SB | A+ | ||||||
| 32 | $24 | Cano,Robinson | SEA | F | p | AV | ||||||
| 96 | $13 | Kipnis,Jason | CLE | F | p | AV | ||||||
| 47 | $20 | Gordon,Dee | MIA | F | S+ | a | ||||||
| 5 | $42 | Altuve,Jose | HOU | F | s | A+ | ||||||
| 50 | $19 | Segura,Jean | SEA | F | SB | AV | ||||||
| 40 | $22 | Odor,Rougned | TEX | F | p | a | – | |||||
| 248 | $4 | Forsythe,Logan | LA | F | p | a | inj- | |||||
| 248 | $4 | Walker,Neil | NYM | F | p | a | inj- | |||||
| 293 | $2 | Hernandez,Cesar | PHI | F | SB | a | * | |||||
| 227 | $5 | Gyorko,Jedd | STL | F | PW | |||||||
| 280 | $3 | Harrison,Josh | PIT | F | s | a | – | inj- | ||||
| 76 | $15 | Kinsler,Ian | DET | F | AV | |||||||
| 138 | $10 | Pedroia,Dustin | BOS | F | AV | |||||||
| 160 | $8 | Zobrist,Ben | CHC | F | AV | * | ||||||
| 203 | $6 | Travis,Devon | TOR | F | AV | INJ | e | |||||
| 275 | $3 | Phillips,Brandon | CIN | F | AV | – | ||||||
| 325 | $1 | Panik,Joe | SF | F | AV | INJ | ||||||
| 178 | $7 | Schoop,Jonathan | BAL | F | p | – | ||||||
| 232 | $4 | Castro,Starlin | NYY | F | a | – | ||||||
| 342 | $1 | Kendrick,Howie | PHI | F | a | inj- | ||||||
| 320 | $1 | Wong,Kolten | STL | F | s | |||||||
| 390 | $(1) | Mondesi,Raul | KC | M | p | S+ | AV | EX | ||||
| 517 | $(3) | Spangenberg,Cory | SD | M | SB | a | INJ | e | ||||
| 365 | $(0) | Lawrie,Brett | CHW | F | INJ | |||||||
| 321 | $1 | Schimpf,Ryan | SD | M | P+ | * | AV | EX | ||||
| 540 | $(4) | Dietrich,Derek | MIA | M | p | |||||||
| 447 | $(2) | Merrifield,Whit | KC | M | s | EX | ||||||
| 591 | $(5) | Herrera,Dilson | CIN | p | a | EX | ||||||
| 645 | $(6) | Coghlan,Chris | CHC | p | a | * | inj- | |||||
| 0 | Gosselin,Phil | ARI | s | AV | inj- | e | ||||||
| 496 | $(3) | Utley,Chase | LA | M | ||||||||
| 500 | $(3) | Peterson,Jace | ATL | M | * | |||||||
| 508 | $(3) | Lowrie,Jed | OAK | M | AV | INJ | ||||||
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help)
LIABILITIES: Av (Batting Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience)
Let’s talk about Trea Turner (pictured above). Yes, he’s at the top of this list. It’s tough to push him down given the type of skills he displayed last season. But that big “EX” liability looms ominously. Take it seriously.
What element of his skill set is real? The speed, likely. His (SB) rating here could still develop into (S+) at some point. But last year’s .567 slugging percentage is over 100 points higher than any previous minor league season. That power isn’t real.
Is he a true .300 hitter? He might be, eventually. I would not be surprised to see him fall short this year. Here’s an interesting stat: Turner was batting just .286 on August 10 last year. From that point, 39 of his remaining 49 games (80 percent) were against sub-.500 teams. He batted .365 during that stretch to finish at .342.
So, while his (p,SB,AV) rating pushes him to the head of the class now, my instinct tells me that 2017 might look more like (SB,AV) by season’s end. His comp in that asset group looks like Jean Segura among 2Bmen, but also includes Elvis Andrus and Ender Inciarte.
Moving on… The first opportunity for some profit comes with the 2-player (p,AV) asset group. BABS sees Robinson Cano’s career power season as somewhat less than it appears, and offers up Jason Kipnis as a reasonable comp several rounds later and for about half the price.
This is the only multi-player asset group within your top nine players. That means, you’ll be looking to grab your top 2Bmen at around par value, based on your goals and needs. It may seem that Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve and Jean Segura are all speed-average guys, but each has slightly different strengths.
It’s a head-scratcher, but I acknowledge (again) that BABS continues to look unfavorably on Altuve’s power skills. He defied her in 2016; I would not place bets on his ability to continue doing that. Last year, I classified DJ LeMahieu as “Jose Altuve Lite” but this year it’s entirely possible that the Colorado 2Bman could put up better numbers than Altuve, as odd as that sounds now.
Rougned Odor heads up the (p,a) asset group but BABS sees him as a massive overdraft and expects some regression. That opens up potential profit opportunities many, many, many rounds later with Logan Forsythe and Neil Walker. Both have injury concerns, though.
The best asset group in which to go prospecting late – perhaps for your MI spot – is (AV). There are a half dozen players within a $15 and 250 spot ADP range. All will keep you competitive in batting average while not making a big impact anywhere else.
Among the mid-timers with skills upside who could back into more playing time… there is nobody here I would recommend.
Cano/Kipnis confuses me. Cano has a career 85 xpx (which confuses me. He has had 1 year at 82 ..but it looks like it should be at about 100 based on his yearly ratings) Kipnis xpx is 96 , which is comparable. The difference is Kipnis has a 10% HR/FB compared to 15% for Cano. Quite a difference.
I am still learning how to read and understand the advanced metrics so likely missing something here.
You’re doing just fine here, but still relying too much on the numbers. HR/FB is not very projectable so that is not a consideration. Your xPX assessments are close. Lots goes into the pot. Take 10 steps back and just look at each guy’s general skill set.
Logan Forsythe and Neil Walker are BOTH listed as ADP 248 and R$ 4. Is that a typo?
No. When two players average draft position – as calculated – is identical, they will appear as such.
ron– logan forsythe now plays for the dodgers which could change people’s thinking in an nl only or nl/al playoff teams rosters. what do you think. new book is great .
lou
Thanks, and I corrected the error in the above chart. As I wrote in the book, team changes typically only have marginal impact unless a player is moving from an extreme park to an opposite extreme park. There may be some peripheral R/RBI impact for Forsythe, but it probably won’t be enough to be projectable.
Ron,
Won a league last year by punting SP at the draft (only selected RP) and streaming during the season. Pitching categories were W, SV, K/9, ERA, WHIP, and QS and I was able to win all categories and not finish last in W and QS. League is going back to Total Ks now and added a SP slot after my experiment paid off handsomely and made them look like fools. With that said, punting SP is going to be a bit tougher this year and likely something I wouldn’t do again. I realize there was a lot of luck on my part to do so well last year. I know you have advocated for balance on your roster, especially in 12 Team leagues. I assume with this new setup you’d suggest the same thing?
This league only has a 22 man roster (10 hitters, 8 pitcher, 4 bench). Do you suggest using your 12 Team mixed BABS targets during the draft despite the smaller player pool (264 players drafted)? I essentially will exit the draft with 12-13 batters and 9-10 pitchers.
What adjustments would you make to BABS to factor in OPS which is our sixth hitting category (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG are there too)? Would you move OPS guys up in their respective grouping?
Thanks!
Hi Jonathan. Hate to put you off, but all of your questions are answered in The BABS Project eBook. Have you read it yet? In answer to your questions quickly: yes, yes and yes (your last question answers the one before it).
Why isn’t Turner in the S+ range right now? He had a Spd score of 205 in 2016 and BaseballHQ projects a Spd figure of 174 for 2017 (Dee Gordon is 183 for 2017; Billy Hamilton is 174 for 2017). What explains the SB rating?
It’s not just the speed score. And it’s not just Baseball HQ data. There is also regression built in for players who are not fully-formed entities.
And all their BABS ratings are identical as well. Has anyone seen them in the same place at the same time?
Nope. Never been photographed together. Draft one, draft the other, same result.
This may be a dumb question, but I’m confused by something on the charts and don’t see an explanation in any key or cheat sheet. Several players are marked as having batting effectiveness as an asset, but then have a minus sign in the liability section for batting ineffectiveness. Does this mean that despite the skill there is still downside? Player examples in this article are Odor and Castro. Thanks!
Is it OBP liability? I see the asterisk for OBP help, but nothing in the legend for liability.
Yes, that’s exactly it. Those are players with a walk rate less than 5%. For those in OBP leagues, they are potential killers.
I play in a 10 team scoresheet league and I know to get as many assets with my first pick in second base. But it is that backup I’m having problem with. What area is going to give me the edge. Is it the ops of right vs left in baseballhq scoresheet section?
That’s generally not a bad way to go. Personally, I just like to see what the talent pool looks like at the time of my pick and use that to skim off whatever potential value is left. You should ask this question on the Baseball HQ forums and you’ll get some deeper insight from the many Scoresheet players there.
Thanks
Hello, Ron:
Is DJ missing a + because of something specific? He had a walk rate of 11% last year (over .400) and while I know that isn’t sustainable he should be in the .360+ area next year. I want to target him in my league (OBP/BB in addition to normal offensive categories).
2016 was the first time in his 5-year career that he exceeded an 8% walk rate. We can’t conclude that last year’s 11% is sustainable. Yet. That does not take away from what will likely be a high OBP due to his elevated BA. His (A+) rating reflects that.
That makes sense and thanks for clarifying. I couldn’t find anything in the Forecaster that says he will hit for more power next year no matter how hard I try. Is he just a 8-13 HR guy who hits for a high average and has above average speed? It looks like he hit over 30 doubles last year – it’d be nice for his owners if a few more of those turned into HRs.
If that is to happen, he couldn’t be playing in a better ballpark.
I wish he played in SF…thanks for the input, Ron!
Just curious, in leagues where Carpenter has 2b eligiblity. How/where would he fit in your thoughts and rankings
He’d be ranked right below Trea Turner on the list above. Carpenter’s multi-position eligibility makes him a VERY desirable commodity.
I really like these articles that discuss players by position. I find the BABS data more manageable in these smaller lists.
Would it make sense to have the position spreadsheets at the draft, rather than the complete list in all its glory?
Are you planning to offer the position lists in a form that can be downloaded to excel?
I’m not planning anything formal, but you can mark the charts in these articles with your cursor and cut/paste into Excel. Once the BABS database launches, you should be able to do positional sorts.
I’m excited by Mondesi’s S+ potential….and that’s about it. Anything more to fall in love with here? I’m afraid that his overall game might hinder his PT, which would reduce his only viable commodity, speed.
Yes, you have good reason to be concerned.
Hey Ron, I am new to BABS and am thoroughly enjoying your work here. I noticed Javier Baez is not listed as a 2B(his expected position this year). In the 3B charts you have him as F,p e. Would that place him somewhere around Scoop, but with corresponding risk/reward possibilities because of the e?
Yes, exactly. You can always look at the master list in the CONTROL CENTER (in the MEMBERS ONLY area) to see where players fit in overall.
Long time HQ subscriber, loving your new material. Wondering how Minors work into this? For example, I’ve been offered a $1 Eduardo Nunez (Option Eligible, can keep for $1 in 2017, then give contract up to 4 years at $2 increase/yr) for a $3 Ozzie Albies. Albies will be $3 for the year he’s called up, then 1 year with that Option Eligible contract, then up to 4 years increasing $2/yr.
I’m inclined to take Nunez. He’s proven, he’s cheap, he’ll have a few more good years in him.
But how would I be able to evaluate Albies within your new system, and make a great decision about whether to do this deal or not?
No I’m not in contention this year. Hoping to be next year or 2019
Chapter 11 – BABS in keeper leagues.
General point, though… if you are not playing for this year, why are you opting for the short-term solution? And FWIW, Nunez is not proven. In a 7-year career, he had 3 good months last year. It was his first sign of life in 5 years. That said, Albies is unproven, for sure, but it sounds like you can buy another year to see how he develops.
Lol, that’s the one Chapter I skimmed. Thanks Ron. Great points.
Ron :
First of all, I know answering all of our posts is tedious and time consuming, with your schedule. All I can say is it is not unnoticed or appreciated be me, thanks. My question is, I had a chance to kind of follow LABR AL last night. Big time experts in that draft. Im sure you know that Altuve was the top cost-even more than Trout or Betts.
I know that you mentioned you have some issues with BABS on him. I can see where if he even upgraded to a “p” or “SB”, he would move upwards considerably according to BABS. What I’d like to know is if the reason BABS ranks him as low as it does is because BABS sees his particular skill set (s,A+) as having a maximum of producing a $10-$19 (light light green), or is there something else here. And do you have any thoughts regarding Altuve going for $45 last night.
Thanks Again
Joe
BABS uses integrated formulas that take several skills variables into account. From that aspect, she’s pretty objective. But admittedly, there are a few head-scratchers. You can change those ratings to better meet the smell test or you can stick with her. I won’t tell you what to do, but all I know is that she rated Starling Marte as a S+ talent last year (I manually downgraded him to SB) and she was right. She gave Manny Machado NO speed rating last year, and lo and behold – no steals. I dunno, I’m going to stick with her for awhile. We’ll see. I personally like Altuve — I’ve drafted him in the 1st round — but BABS looks at me sideways when I do.
An “s” for Altuve and not SB or even SB+? Does that mean BABS expects even further regression in this category?
BABS looks at underlying skills and his prior SB totals were more a function of opportunity than skill. Add in if he continues to bat 3rd…