Donaldson, Bradley pace June BABS leaders

Nearly halfway through the season and we are seeing many players’ performances settle down to the levels we had expected in the pre-season.

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A reminder about how to use the chart:

Batters and pitchers, individually, are ranked by skill, regardless of playing time. In this way, you can identify the skills tiers and cherry pick players who have upside even if they do not have the plate appearances or innings so far. However, playing time is always a measure of BABS credibility.

Ratings for players on pace to put up Full-time plate appearances and innings are the most credible. Mid-timers are somewhat less so. The ratings for Part-time players (those with a blank in the PT field), and especially those whose names are in italics (fewer than 30 AB or 10 IP), are hardly projectable at all. They are listed only to provide a peek into how the players are currently performing.

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JUNE 28 UPDATE: [EXCEL] [VIEW/PRINT]

Let’s start by looking at some of the players that I’ve been specifically targeting in my analysis this year.

Dexter Fowler came into 2016 with a [p,SB,+] rating, opened strong in April at [P+,SB,AV+], showed settling speed in May [P+,s,AV+] and is now settling further at [PW,AV+]. His current hamstring issues will likely continue to impact his SB output but there still could be a latent power spike coming. At least that’s what BABS sees. And BABS can be pretty smart.

Nick Castellanos came into 2016 with a [PW,a] rating, opened very strong in April [P+,SB,AV-], gave back the sudden speed in May [P+,AV] and has continued at that same [P+,AV] level through June. In the 3B analysis last February, BABS advised that this was, at minimum, a comparable skill set to Evan Longoria but at a much lower cost. Thus far, BABS is on target there.

Jose Altuve came into 2016 with a [SB,AV] rating, was April’s skills leader at [P+,s,AV+], saw his power settle a bit through May [PW,s,AV+] and is currently rated at [p,s,AV+]. The consistent power fade was not unexpected given his pre-season rating but the speed malaise could be concerning. He’s stolen 9, 6 and 3 bases, by month this season, and while others only see 18 bags, BABS is urging caution.

Mookie Betts came into 2016 with a [p,SB,AV] rating, surged in April to [p,S+,a-], was May’s overall leader at [p,S+,AV] and has settled back to his pre-season rating [p,SB,AV] as June winds down. His pre-season [p,SB,AV] cohort, Starling Marte, has surged into the top 3 overall with a [p,S+,AV-] rating.

But the top BABS players through June are currently Josh Donaldson and Jackie Bradley, with identical [P+,s,AV+] ratings. Donaldson’s rating adds a touch of speed to his already stellar [P+,AV+] pre-season mark. Bradley has exploded from his [p] expectation. There might be a bit of regression in there.

Here are a few interesting current skills groups. Players are listed along with their respective pre-season BABS ratings.

P+,AV+ (Extreme power, significant batting tools plus OBP)
David Ortiz         P+,AV+
Nolan Arenado       P+,AV
Matt Carpenter      PW,AV+
Brandon Belt        PW,a

While Ortiz and Arenado pretty much perform up to expectation, it is interesting to see Carpenter improve upon his 2015 breakout and Belt start to live up to his potential. While the latter two are not close to the league HR leaders, know that there is potential power upside for both of them.

S+,a- (Extreme speed, moderate batting tools, but OBP discount)
Billy Burns         S+,a
Billy Hamilton      S+,x
Dee Gordon          S+,AV
Tim Anderson        S+

For those wondering where Anderson’s skill set fits, he is right there with some of the speediest players in the game. He currently has fewer than 100 plate appearances, so his BABS rating could change, but he’s starting from an elite level in today’s speed-scarce game.

PW,a (Significant power, moderate batting tools)
Nelson Cruz         P+,a
Matt Holliday       p,a+
Travis Shaw         PW,a
Yasmany Tomas       a
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Welington Castillo  PW
Justin Bour         p
Trayce Thompson     p

To some extent, this is a demonstration of age-related regression. Cruz’s power and Holliday’s batting skills are starting to fade while the younger players’ skills have improved this year. The top quartet are full-timers, the bottom trio are mid-timers, so there could still be some shifting in their BABS ratings.

Clayton Kershaw remains a god, but it is interesting to see how the composition of the pitching elite evolves. Coming into the season, it was Kershaw followed by Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. After one month, Scherzer and Sale were replaced by Noah Syndegaard and Vince Velasquez. After May, Velasquez dropped. Now, it’s Kershaw, Syndegaard and Jose Fernandez leading the way, all three with perfectly elite [E+,K+] ratings. None of this is that much of a surprise. Jake Arrieta follows at [E+,KK]

Some interesting pitcher groups:

ER,K+ (Significant pitching tools, extreme strikeouts)
Max Scherzer        ER,K+
Stephen Strasburg   ER,KK
Danny Salazar       e,KK
Drew Pomeranz       ER,KK
Danny Duffy

This is the next group of starting pitchers to follow Arrieta. Little surprise in the top three. Pomeranz continues to hold his own. Duffy is the big surprise here, coming out of March with a BABless skill set and now posting near-elite level skills since moving into the rotation in mid-May.

How far has Chris Sale dropped? His current [ER,k] rating puts him in the same class as about a dozen other veteran and rookie arms, including Johnny Cueto, Julio Teheran, Felix Hernandez, Steven Matz and Michael Fulmer.

And Vince Velasquez? His current [e,KK] rating puts him in the same group as David Price, Aaron Nola and Justin Verlander.

KK (Significant strikeouts)
Chris Archer      ER,KK
Drew Smyly        ER,KK
Scott Kazmir      e,k

Call them the Tampa Bay Trio (okay, Kazmir is a former Ray). All three are maintaining strong strikeout dominance but have been unable to convert that skill into solid ERA performance. All have shown better in the past, so there is hope.