BABS in Keeper Leagues

March 10, 2016

When thinking about BABS in keeper leagues, it is helpful to start by defining what makes a player protectable from one season to another. It really comes down to one broad statement:

Any player that you would not be able to get back in the draft at his current price, or less, is potentially protectable. These players generally fall into three categories:

Low cost profit-holders: These are players whose performance and earnings last year exceeded what you paid for them at the draft. A $23 Bryce Harper is an obviously protectable commodity. Your 10th round 2015 pick, J.D. Martinez, is likely protectable. That end-game flyer you took on Mitch Moreland has to be a consideration.

At par cornerstone players: As much as it is nice to stock your keeper list with $5 players who earned $15 last year, you also need high level foundation guys. A $32 Edwin Encarnacion, a third round Todd Frazier, and even a $40 Clayton Kershaw are all potentially protectable. Why? With draft inflation, all three of those players will likely cost far more on Draft Day.

Since owners will be protecting players at reduced prices, there will be far more dollars available in the draft than there will be valuable players. So all players will potentially cost more. Yes, protecting Kershaw at $40 seems like a lot, but even 20 percent draft inflation turns him into a potential $48 buy at the draft.

Prospects: These are players of uncertain value that you might be able to redraft, but most owners prefer to hang onto them as long as there is no cost to do so. Minor leagues, college players, even high school (and younger), they all represent speculation on upside.

Current BABS Spreadsheet: EXCEL file | View Online

Basics

BABS handles the first two categories within its current structure. Compare what your keeper cost is to where your player falls in the spreadsheet. The BABS tiers and marketplace values will give you enough information to make an informed decision about whether that player is protectable.

So if you own Corey Kluber at $24, BABS tells you that his skills profile is ranked within the $20-$30 tier but his market price is $22. That means he could conceivably earn anywhere from $20-$30 but it’s possible you could purchase him at the draft for a few dollars less than your $24 keeper cost.

However – and this is important – that market price is not adjusted for inflation. So if Kluber is made available on Draft Day, he could go for $26 (20 percent inflation), $29 (30 percent inflation), or more. Suddenly, your $24 decision looks easier to make.

Note that these are decisions made in a vacuum, but shouldn’t be. Much of your keeper decisions should be based on what you anticipate the talent pool to look like on Draft Day. For that, you need to know – or at least have a general sense of – what players the other owners are keeping. If you’re on the fence about protecting Brandon Crawford, it’s helpful to know that Carlos Correa, Troy Tulowitzki, Corey Seager and Xander Bogaerts are all going to be kept by other teams.

BABS does fine with these types of decisions. The place where we need to take a deeper look is with prospects and younger players who have Experience risk.

The Risks of Youth

BABS rates prospects and young, inexperienced players in two ways. Most obviously, they are given an Experience risk rating of “EX” (less than approximately one year of experience) or “e” (approximately one but less than two years of experience). But these players are also rated based on how much expected playing time they stand to get. All levels of experience could be in line for full-time, mid-time or part-time plate appearances or innings. So you may find pockets of potential upside talent just about anywhere in the BABS spreadsheet.

Here’s the important thing about a player with Experience risk – either “e” or especially “EX” – he is not yet a fully formed commodity. His BABS skills ratings have the potential to improve once he gets more playing time under his belt. Conceivably, his assets could continue to develop. We don’t know for sure, but a “p” could become a “PW” and perhaps even a “P+” over time. His current ratings provide only a clue about what type of player he might turn out to be.

Unfortunately, the flipside is true too. Any inexperienced player with elevated skills ratings has the potential to regress once he gets more PA/IPs. Two high risk “EX” players near the top of BABS are Corey Seager and Michael Conforto (both PW,AV). Perhaps they will live up to those levels, but it’s too early to dub them comparable to established (PW,AV) veterans like Anthony Rizzo and Adam Jones.

It is unlikely that a young player will develop skills that he is not currently exhibiting at all. In other words, a (p,a) player is unlikely to become a (PW,SB,a) player. Those speed skills would have likely already been somewhat evident. It is possible that a player with below average skills (which would not register in his BABS rating) might improve to slightly above average but I’m not sure we’d want to be stocking our keeper slots with players who currently have below average skills.

So, the BABS Assets ratings for each player with Experience risk can only be considered a starting point. Once a player reaches the plate appearance and innings thresholds, you have to consider that his skills are at least 75 percent baked. There could still be growth, but by 1000 PAs and 300 IP, we have a good sense of who he is.

Targets

BABS provides us with targets for Assets and Liabilities. The adjustments you have to make here depend entirely where you are in the contend/rebuild cycle.

If you are playing for 2016, there should be no adjustments. If you need to open up the limits for Experience risk, do so carefully. Just because you believe you are ready to contend, owning too many players with Experience risk still means you have too much risk.

I see this a lot. An owner stockpiles young players who showed a little something the previous season and believes they form a solid, low risk foundation. But if you’re going into 2016 with a core of Corey Seager, Kyle Schwarber, Francisco Lindor, Miguel Sano, Raisel Iglesias and Luis Severino – congratulations, you did a great scouting job. But odds are you’re better positioned for 2017 than 2016. Maybe.

If you are playing for 2017, you can start opening up the targets. The most important point is that your decisions have to be based on the knowledge that 2016 is pretty much irrelevant (unless your league has penalties for low finishes). Your Asset goals don’t matter. I would target some players with Injury risk as they offer profit opportunity. And feel free to stockpile players with Experience risk and good skills.

If you are playing for 2018, throw caution to the wind. Targets? Targets? We don’t need no stinkin’ targets.

Essentially, the further you are from contending, the more flexibility you have with the targets. So, if you are looking at a rebuilding season, you want to stock up on young, high skilled players with minimal concern for the Experience liability. If you are expecting to contend, you should still be as close to the standard benchmarks as possible.

Perhaps this:

                               NUMBER OF PLAYERS
Experience Liability      12-tm mixed  15-tm mixed  12-team AL/NL
--------------------     ----------- ----------- -------------
**Contending Team
BATTERS                       3            4            2
PITCHERS                      2            2            1
**Rebuilding Team
BATTERS                       6            7            4
PITCHERS                      4            4            3

The underlying thought process is that, even if you roster 10 players with Experience risk, only some of them are going to pan out and be protectable for subsequent seasons.

The EX List

Here is a list of the highest skilled players with the most Experience risk (EX). Note that all of these players have EX in that column (so it’s been omitted). The other Asset and Liability columns that had no entries have also been omitted.

ASSETS LIABILITIES
Marketplace BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av Av Inj Rg
ADP $$   PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Er Inj Rg
55 $19   Seager,Corey 6 LA F PW AV
187 $7 + Conforto,Michael o7 NYM F PW AV
6 $38 X Correa,Carlos 6 HOU F p AV Rg
143 $9 + Iglesias,Raisel SP CIN F e KK       inj-
105 $12 Franco,Maikel 5 PHI F p a inj-
203 $6 + Piscotty,Stephen o7 STL F p a
29 $25 X Schwarber,Kyle o72 CHC F P+
59 $18 X Sano,Miguel 0 MIN F P+
125 $10 McCullers,Lance SP HOU M ER KK        
221 $5   + Marte,Ketel 6 SEA F SB a
365 $(0)   Spangenberg,Cory 4 SD F SB a inj-
157 $8 Severino,Luis SP NYY M ER k        
192 $6 Park,Byung Ho 3 MIN F PW
311 $2   + Santana,Domingo o98 MIL F PW -AV
314 $1   + Paulsen,Benjamin 3o COL F PW
330 $1   Altherr,Aaron o7 PHI F p s
61 $18 X Lindor,Francisco 6 CLE F s a
345 $1   + Velasquez,Vincent SP PHI M e KK        
229 $5 Vizcaino,Arodys rp ATL – ER KK sv-      
364 $0 Strickland,Hunter rp SF – ER KK sv-      
448 $(2) Knebel,Corey rp MIL – ER KK sv-      
288 $2 Travis,Devon 4 TOR M p AV INJ
580 $(5) Drury,Brandon 5 ARI M p AV
247 $4 Castillo,Rusney o97 BOS F a
264 $3 McCann,James 2 DET F a
294 $2 Kim,Hyun-Soo 7 BAL F a
462 $(2) Shaw,Travis 3 BOS M PW a
309 $2 Peraza,Jose 4 CIN M S+ a
202 $6 X Maeda,Kenta SP LA M e k        
214 $5 Ross,Joe SP WAS M e k        
490 $(3) Mahtook,Mikie o TAM M P+ s
113 $11 X Matz,Steven SP NYM M ER         INJ
459 $(2) Hernandez,Enrique o4 LA M p a
Rupp,Cameron 2 PHI M p -AV
Casali,Curtis 2 TAM M p -AV inj-
Swihart,Blake 2 BOS M a
Duvall,Adam o7 CIN M P+
Saladino,Tyler 5 CHW F s -AV
Heaney,Andrew SP LAA F            
Kepler,Max 9o MIN P p SB AV
Turner,Trea 4 WAS M SB a
Davies,Zachary SP MIL M e          
Duffey,Tyler SP MIN M e          
Nola,Aaron SP PHI M e          
Buxton,Byron 8o MIN M S+ inj-
Finnegan,Brandon SP CIN M   k        
Gray,Jonathan SP COL M   k        
Lamb,John SP CIN M   k        
Eickhoff,Jerad SP PHI M   k       inj-
Norris,Daniel SP DET M   k     -ER INJ
Singleton,Jonathan 3 HOU M PW -AV
Orlando,Paulo o97 KC M p s
Alvarez,Dario rp NYM – ER K+        
Armstrong,Shawn rp CLE – ER K+        
Drake,Oliver rp BAL – ER K+        
Edwards,Jonathan rp SD – ER K+        
Givens,Mychal rp BAL – ER K+        
Goody,Nicholas rp NYY – ER K+        
Kela,Keone rp TEX – ER K+        
Osuna,Roberto rp TOR – ER K+        
Reyes,Alexander SP STL – ER K+      
Weiss,Zack rp CIN – ER K+      
Knapp,Andrew 2 PHI P PW s a
Phillips,Brett 8 MIL P p SB a
Bracho,Silvino rp ARI – ER KK        
Broadway,Michael rp SF – ER KK        
Garcia,Yimi rp LA – ER KK        
Simmons,Shae rp ATL – ER KK       inj-
Baez,Javier 4 CHC M p -AV
Tucker,Preston o7 HOU M p
Sweeney,Darnell o PHI M p -AV
Souza,Steven o9 TAM M p INJ
Olivera,Hector 5 ATL M a
Jankowski,Travis o8 SD P S+ a
Sanchez,Gary 2 NYY P PW a
Reed,A.J. 3 HOU P PW a
Lambo,Andrew o OAK P PW a INJ
Brinson,Lewis 8 TEX P p s a
Story,Trevor 6 COL P P+ s -AV
Gallo,Joey o7 TEX P P+ s -AV
Rutckyj,Evan rp ATL – e K+        
Lindgren,Jacob rp NYY – e K+       inj-
Andriese,Matt SP TAM M            
Bassitt,Chris SP OAK M            
Conley,Adam SP MIA M            
Erlin,Robert rp SD M            
Rodriguez,Eduardo SP BOS M            
Perez,Williams SP ATL M           inj-
Anderson,Cody SP CLE M         -ER  
Lorenzen,Michael SP CIN M         -ER  
Morgan,Adam SP PHI M         -ER  
Nicolino,Justin SP MIA M         -ER  
Wisler,Matthew SP ATL M         -ER  
Cotton,Jharel SP LA – ER k        
Dull,Ryan rp OAK – ER k        
Manaea,Sean SP OAK – ER k        
Mariot,Michael rp PHI – ER k        
Martin,Josh rp SD – ER k        
Oh,Seung-Hwan rp STL – ER k      
Osich,Josh rp SF – ER k        
Pazos,James rp NYY – ER k        
Tonkin,Michael rp MIN – ER k        
Zych,Tony rp SEA – ER k        
Johnson,Stephen rp CIN – e KK        
Morris,Akeel rp NYM – e KK        
Patton,Spencer rp CHC – e KK        
Mazzoni,Cory rp SD – e KK       inj-
Beliveau,Jeff rp BAL – e KK       INJ
Ramirez,Neil rp CHC – e KK       INJ
Lee,Dae-ho 3 SEA P p a
Mancini,Trey 3 BAL P p a
Robinson,Clint 3o7 WAS P p a
Rogers,Jason 3 PIT P p a
Campbell,Eric 5 NYM P p a
Murphy,Tom 2 COL P P+ -AV
Muncy,Max 3 OAK P P+ -AV
O Brien,Peter o7 ARI P P+
Blash,Jabari 7 SD P P+ -AV
Parker,Jarrett o SF P P+ -AV
Walker,Adam 7 MIN P P+ -AV
Perez,Carlos 2 LAA M s
Blair,Carson 2 OAK P PW s -AV
Pham,Thomas o8 STL P p SB inj-
Broxton,Keon o MIL P p SB -AV
Zimmer,Bradley 8 CLE P p SB -AV
Brito,Socrates o ARI P SB a
Margot,Manuel 8 SD P SB a
Berrios,Jose SP MIN – e k        
Cotham,Caleb rp CIN – e k        
Ellington,Brian rp MIA – e k        
Gilmartin,Sean rp NYM – e k        
Glasnow,Tyler SP PIT – e k        
Hessler,Keith rp ARI – e k        
Lopez,Jorge SP MIL – e k        
Murray,Colton rp PHI – e k        
O Grady,Chris rp CIN – e k      
Reed,Cody SP CIN – e k        
Snell,Blake SP TAM – e k        
Urias,Julio SP LA – e k        
Vargas,Cesar rp SD – e k        
Zimmer,Kyle rp KC – e k        
Riefenhauser,Charles rp CHC – e k       inj-
Bundy,Dylan SP BAL – e k       INJ
La Stella,Tommy 4 CHC P AV inj-
Noel,Rico 0 LA P S+ -AV
Hanson,Alen 6 PIT P S+ -AV
Quinn,Roman 8 PHI P S+
Gore,Terrance o7 KC P S+ -AV
Contreras,Carlos rp CIN –   K+        
De Leon,Jose SP LA –   K+        
Edwards,Carl rp CHC –   K+        
Sims,Lucas SP ATL –   K+        
Burgos,Enrique rp ARI –   K+       inj-
Barraclough,Kyle rp MIA –   K+     -ER  

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Average), ER (ERA Potential), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves), Pk (Ballpark), Rg (Regression). LIABILITIES: Av (Average),  ER (ERA), Inj (Injury), Rg (Regression). MARKET: + (Undervalued), X (Overvalued)

You can get a good sense of where the pockets of skill lie. Admittedly, some of them are very broad but these players are so young that we really don’t know how they will develop. If you scan the starting pitchers in the (e,k) group, you’ll see names like Jose Berrios, Tyler Glasnow, Jorge Lopez, Blake Snell and Julio Urias. You might think “they’re not alike,” but how do you know? It’s just too soon, and honestly, tucking any of them away on a keeper list will provide the same unknown odds of success.

There is an interesting group of 11 mid-timer starting pitchers that have no Assets listed. That stretch starts with Matt Andriese and ends with Matt Wisler. If we are focusing on players with at least some above average skill, why are they here? It’s because their respective MLB teams are seeing fit to consider them for a rotation spot, and perhaps 120-150 IP. Are these protectable commodities? Possibly – a few of them are interesting – but until they develop further, it’s tough to tell where their value might lie.

In the end, as much as projecting performance for established players is imprecise, the same exercise for inexperienced prospects is an even more inexact science. I’m not a scout; I assume neither are you. If the pros can’t hit on every potential rising star, don’t think that we have any better odds.

 

 

Posted in Book updates, RSOB, Strategy and tagged , ,

23 Comments

  1. Chad Chapman on March 10, 2016 at 9:21 pm

    Good Stuff. Gives us all the tools to have a sound strategy and evaluate keeper decisions in a bit different languages light. Thanks. I think the whole works is really great and accomplishes your goal to simplify things much more comprehensively than Mayberry. I have revised my BABS sheet to reflect Assets for OBP. I have OB+ and ob on one side and OB- ob- on the liabilities. Fairly confident I did it to my comfort level, but there were different parameters than bb% that I used (historical performance + yes projections with wide ranges + SPG customized for my league history, also projections) would love to see your version with OBP if it’s something you planned on adding/using for any of your drafts this year.



  2. shandler on March 10, 2016 at 9:24 pm

    There has been enough demand for an OBP adjustment so I will discuss that a bit next week.



  3. Larry King on March 11, 2016 at 10:45 am

    There lies the rub with inflation. You don’t know who is going to be kept so you are guessing a bit with your own keepers. I think it is good to look at a few of the expert drafts and say if you have a guy that is going to provide solid assets in BABs and whose keeper value (auction value) is less than what you can keep them for, they are keepable bait. This also helps you plan your auction based on what you are keeping if you follow some concept similar to what was outlined in the auction article.

    One question though that I don’t recall seeing answered, in head to head leagues (or ones sort of like that), do you draft for a balanced BABS team or do you try to load on a few of the assets/liabilities. I am thinking balanced but asking anyway. My league is interesting is that each week is effectively a separate rotissiere week (you can get 14 to 1 point for each of the 5×5 categories each week). At the end of the week, you get those points and have another “rotissiere” week the next one. End of season winner is one with most points. I have a hard time classifying it as head to head but it seems like being able to dominate several categories and at least show in others tends to be the idea.



  4. shandler on March 11, 2016 at 11:01 am

    Every league is different and you need to know how your fellow owners play. In general, I’d always advise to play it straight with a balanced approach, but if the previous winners in your league employed something different, you need to take heed of that. There is no “one size fits all” in this game. Also, you can estimate inflation by going through all the other rosters and picking out the players who would be obvious keepers. Then add up their their expected 2016 values, compare to their salaries and divide for the inflation rate. It won’t be exact, but it will likely be within +/- 5%.



  5. Tyson Schritter on March 11, 2016 at 11:51 am

    In a 6×6 keeper league with OPS and IP instead of W and Holds.

    How would you adjust BABS to those categories? My draft is Saturday.

    Also, wish I had downloaded and read the book sooner! I traded Justin Upton at around value for a cheap and controllable Odorizzi. I have a ton of EX and e risks in Schwarber, Bryant, Springer and Severino. And my pitching staff is littered with inj and rg: Arrieta, Strasburg, G. Cole, and Odorizzi. But also have some pretty good grabs in Adrian Gonzalez, Trout, D. Ortiz.



  6. Sam Edmondson on March 11, 2016 at 7:28 pm

    With regard to inflation, Rotolab estimates 17% inflation with likely freezes. Rather than fudging on the tiers (which goes against the premise of BABS), would it be logical to consider the $ ranges for the tiers to be, say, 1-11, 12-23, 24-35? I think there will be enough dollars out there to make it hard to get players at the prescribed (redraft) price ranges.



  7. shandler on March 12, 2016 at 12:17 am

    Sure. BABS is not a rigid system. If you can find a way to mold it better for your own league, go right ahead.



  8. Thomas Dersham on March 12, 2016 at 8:30 am

    As I’m going thru this and starting to plan my draft, BABS is helping me realize where my team has shortfalls, and also the shortage in the league for filling those shortfalls. I noticed in the NL, there are no SB or S+ in the $20 range. Since my NL team is short on steals, I need to place a larger bid aside on Revere or Gordon because the other 3 are on other teams as of today (cut date isn’t until a week before our draft, which is April 10.) Yes there is plenty of time left for other guys to become available, but I’ll still need to target a high priority on this needed asset. Just a note to say thanks Ron, BABS makes seeing things like this easier to plan for without using projections for each player.



  9. Jay Joyce on March 14, 2016 at 4:14 pm

    Ron,

    So what is the best way to address the wire post draft? I was able to capture some nice pieces off the wire last season that led me to a 67/18 BABS score in the draft with some outstanding keepers going in. I would like to be able to utilize the few NA spots my team has with some BABS friendly prospects. How do I know who fits the profile? Missed on Stroy as he was drafted, but as a scout, I am so acclimated to looking at tools and OFP when it comes to evaluating players. I really would like to be able to grab a young stud or two.



  10. Jason Denny on March 14, 2016 at 6:56 pm

    Ron – at one point you mentioned industry standard for IP minimum is 900. In a traditional league with 10 P and flexibility to go as many SP/RP you want have you ever considered going with 5/6 SP to 4/5 RP. Mid in Ks and Ws but high in ERA. WHIP and Saves. Have you ever done it? How did it turn out? Thanks!



  11. shandler on March 15, 2016 at 12:11 am

    Haven’t really thought much about this yet as we’re still trying to get through draft season. I suspect I’ll be writing about it after Opening Day.



  12. shandler on March 15, 2016 at 12:13 am

    Unless others employ the same split, you will not finish mid-pack in Ks and Ws. Likely closer to the bottom.



  13. Jay Joyce on March 15, 2016 at 12:59 pm

    My quandary is that managers in my league are sharp and savvy, but I am usually one of the first to strike on the wire. According to BABS, she seems to like Max Kepler quite a bit and could stash him on NA, but players like Diaz (STL) and Peraza are starting to garner attention. I missed a bit on speed in the draft and am not too big on Piscotty or Jumbo Diaz so I may have a spot or two open. Not sure what to do here to appease BABS.



  14. shandler on March 15, 2016 at 2:57 pm

    At this point, all you can do is go with the current BABS ratings. Sounds like you don’t agree with some of them. Wouldn’t be the first time we’ve disagreed with a woman.



  15. Jay Joyce on March 15, 2016 at 3:34 pm

    Its not that I dont agree with them. I just want to make my moves count and currently I missed out on some speed in the draft so I feel like I need to acquire it from the wire. What are your thoughts on Piscotty? I drafted Inciarte, but the lineup scares me and Andrus is on the wire along with Peraza. He is calling my name along with Kepler.



  16. shandler on March 15, 2016 at 3:42 pm

    A lot of smart people think Piscotty is going to have a great year. We all know who Andrus is. Compare Inciarte’s peripherals to those of Lorenzo Cain – other than power, nearly identical or better. Kepler is furthest away.



  17. Jason Denny on March 15, 2016 at 7:59 pm

    so – in other words you never tried it nor do you support it? Always trying to find a way to outsmart the others and when you play in leagues with people who have done it forever – it is super hard.



  18. shandler on March 15, 2016 at 10:56 pm

    I used to do it in my old 4×4 days when the LIMA Plan thrived on it. Doesn’t work so much in 5×5 because you desperately need those strikeouts.



  19. Andrew on March 16, 2016 at 11:41 am

    Still having a tough time with my keeper quandary. 10 team NL-only 5×5 league (14h|9p) with 3 keepers that you can only keep for one year. I’m planning on keeping Brandon Crawford (PW, a | Rg) at $3 and Tyson Ross (ER, KK | -) at $8. My final keeper decision is down to Addison Russell (p | e) at $4 or Hector Olivera (a | EX) at $1.

    BABS screams at me that there is no choice to make — Russell is her guy. I know Russell has all the potential in the world, but maybe BABS doesn’t realize that he’s set to hit 9th, which will curtail his production. And will he break out this year or will he struggle?

    And while BABS thinks Olivera is only a mid-timer (though he seems to be playing himself into a full-time role) and projects his experience as more risky than Russell’s, but he’s also 30 years old with a proven track record in Cuba (once you display a skill, yada yada yada). Not to mention the fact that Olivera is due to bat 5th behind Freeman and is on a team with a Cuban-born manager and Cuban-born coaches.

    My gut tells me that Russell will go for higher draft dollars than Olivera. I suppose I’m hung up the batting order position. Both are risks for sure, but how hard will BABS slap me in the face for going against her wisdom?



  20. shandler on March 16, 2016 at 12:10 pm

    The reverse arguments are:
    1. What’s $3?
    2. LA spent a good chunk of money on Olivera yet was very willing to let him go for virtually nothing. Maybe 30 in Cuba is over the hill?
    3. If Russell hits 20 HRs, do you really care that he could have hit 24 if he was batting higher in the order?



  21. Andrew on March 16, 2016 at 4:12 pm

    That BABS… she’s a sassy one!



  22. F. X. Flinn on March 21, 2016 at 11:00 am

    Ron,

    Did a lot of work over the weekend to come up with BABS for my 12 team AL only traditional 4×4 Roti league. Wound up downloading and cross referencing the data I developed in RotoLab, where I guessed which players would be kept and at what price (instead of FAAB our in-season, by-reverse-order-of-standings pickups get a $5 contract that gets “arbitrated” during the 1st 3 rounds of the auction following year, e.g. Hamel is $5 now and the team that has him can keep him if they match the high bid at the auction; same applies to players eligible for guaranteed contracts who are not given them). I see that the prices are different in ways that lead me to conclude your price ranges are based on 5×5, and since we aren’t using Runs or K’s that means our SB and SV guys will price higher and PW will be even more valuable. We roster 13 hitters and 12 pitchers to more truly reflect the reality of AL rosters with their abundance of pitching, so that tends to create a strong stars & scrubs bias to pitching prices.

    With all this in mind I’m going through the list of available players and categorizing this way:

    A Affordable & Clean (no liabilities)
    B Too Much $ & Clean (I won’t chase stars)
    C Full time with Risk (I may ignore Pk and Nw and put them in A)
    D Medium no Risk
    E Medium Risk / PT High Skill
    F PT no Risk
    G Avoid

    I’ll be looking to populate my 10 open slots with A’s, B’s that turn out to be reasonably priced, and then it will be the end game, where I will hope to get some D’s but likely will wind up with F’s.

    Thoughts? I’ll be in your neighborhood on the 5th.



  23. shandler on March 21, 2016 at 11:07 am

    In an AL-only league, there’s nothing wrong with “F”s, and “E”s could be the guys who win leagues. Let me know how it works!