RSOB Chapter 8: The BABS Draft
New to “Ron Shandler’s Other Book”? Read the Introduction.
If you think the BABS process is a little uncomfortable, just wait. Here in Chapter 8, we jump off the cliff. This is another looooong chapter, but unlike Chapter 6, it’s coming at you all at once. Have a seat; grab a beer and a parachute.
We think we know where players should be ranked. There is no question that my top 3 pick is going to be one of Trout, Goldschmidt or Harper. There is no question that Jose Altuve should go before Dee Gordon. There is no question that the Mets starters should go in the order of Harvey, DeGrom and then Syndegaard. Why?
That’s where all the spring magazines and online cheat sheets are ranking them. That’s how they are going in mock drafts.
True. But what really happened was that the first published lists and mock drafts this past winter ranked players a certain way. Then the next lists and mocks fed off the first ones. The more of these that were published, the more we drafted a certain way. Before we knew it, we reached a critical mass of opinion. The rankings became less about reality and more about group-think. Once spring training camps open, our expectations are all pretty much locked in.
That’s not true. I draft whoever I want. I’m not swayed by the ADPs.
Maybe. But I’d wager a guess that you’re more locked in than you think. Let’s say that I made a very convincing argument that Carlos Gomez should be drafted ahead of Manny Machado. (In fact, I’ll be making just such an argument in the First Pitch Forum conferences over the next few weekends.) You might consider my analysis, and even if you agree, you will be reluctant to change your expectations much. Why? Because all the published analyses list Machado as a 1st-rounder and Gomez outside the top 50. Shandler is just one lone voice in a crowd no matter how right I might be. And frankly, you don’t want to risk public scorn by drafting Carlos Gomez in the first round.
But Gomez is not a first-rounder.
Why not? How do you know? He earned first-round value in 2013 and 2014. He was hurt last year. Why can’t he be a first-rounder again?
I can’t stress enough about the realities of our group-think expectations. Here was last year’s first round ADP ranking list along with where each player finished at the end of the season:
ADP Actual Mike Trout 1 10 Andrew McCutchen 2 32 Clayton Kershaw 3 3 Giancarlo Stanton 4 156 Paul Goldschmidt 5 4 Miguel Cabrera 6 53 Jose Abreu 7 33 Carlos Gomez 8 148 Jose Bautista 9 27 Edwin Encarnacion 10 26 Felix Hernandez 11 104 Jose Altuve 12 9 Anthony Rizzo 13 19 Adam Jones 14 80 Troy Tulowtizki 15 115
So when I present the BABS spreadsheet below, you cannot look at it and think, “These rankings are all wrong. There is no way Player X should be ranked that low/high.” BABS might be wrong, but no less wrong than the list you’ve been using so far this off-season. And BABS just might be a little more right.
In fact, the players in the attached spreadsheet are not ranked at all. They are slotted into large groups; those with similar profiles are presented together. It is these larger groups that are ranked, and even those ranks are just rough approximations. But it will still be enough for you to draft from.
Okay, okay. Can I see it already??
Yes. It’s time.
HERE IT IS!!!!!
EXCEL file | View Online
Let’s run through this.
What’s on this Spreadsheet?
At the top of the spreadsheet is a blank roster grid. You’ll keep track of your team during the draft by cutting and pasting your players into the appropriate position on the grid.
The grey Target bar is where you should input your Asset goals and Liability limits, based on the data in Chapter 5. Then as the draft progresses, you’ll be able to keep up with where you are and where you need to be.
Beneath the roster is your player list in all its glory. The first two columns (A and B) represent the marketplace. The rest all BABS. Ain’t she great?
Column A: Each player’s ADP from the NFBC, as of February 23.
Column B: The ADPs converted to dollar values for a 15-team mixed league.
We start the process of marrying BABS to the marketplace with some color-coding.
Snake Drafts: In Column A, I’ve divided up the talent pool into tiers of roughly 50-60 players (in alternating orange and white bands). If you’re in a 15-team league, that’s a span of about three rounds. If you’re in a 12-team league, that’s a span of about four rounds.
Why 50-60? Research has shown that about 80 percent of the players who earn first round value in a given year will have come from the pre-season ADP’s top 60 players. That number seems to capture most of the variability within a tier of talent and is not too large to relegate the drafting process to random dart-throws.
So for most of the draft, you’ll be trying to select your players within a tier before moving on to the next tier.
Auctions: In Column B, all players who could earn $30 or more – based on BABS – are listed together (in dark green). Similarly, those who could earn $20-$29 are listed together (in medium green), as are those who could earn $10-$19 (in light green). Below that, the numbers are too small and variable to attach a realistic value. The difference between a $3 player and an $8 player is not remotely projectable. (I write that a lot. It’s important.)
While the actual dollar values are driven by the 15-team mixed format, the broader $30, $20 and $10 tiers are helpful for those who play in different depth leagues. Again, there is nothing precise about dollar values.
Column C: Players whose BABS positioning is significantly higher than the marketplace are noted with a “+” – meaning a potential profit opportunity.
Looking at the first player with profit potential, Joey Votto is valued as a potential $30+ player (dark green). That’s higher than the $23 that the marketplace is paying for him. So if you can get him at market price, or even anything under $30, you might be able to pocket some profit. Similarly in a snake draft, his ADP is #36 yet he’s listed in the top 10. Nabbing him at his ADP or even a little earlier will provide profit.
For some players, the marketplace is far too bullish. For those, you’ll find a big red “X“. If you draft according to these rankings, you’ll likely never get down far enough to consider them because they will have already been drafted by someone else. In the event that players like Carlos Correa, Manny Machado and Buster Posey actually drop out of the top 50, you can certainly snap ’em up then.
Assets
Within each tier, the players are assembled by like Assets, their respective skills profiles. So all the (P+,AV) players are listed together, all the (ER,KK) pitchers, and so on. Within those skills groups, players are ranked by ADP. I do this so we can easily see how the marketplace values each set of skills. This also helps us uncover the profit and loss opportunities. For instance, it is important to know that, while there are nine players with an identical (P+,AV) profile, the marketplace ranks them from #2 overall down to #111!
Liabilities
On the positional charts in Chapter 6, I sorted the players so that those with risk factors appeared at the end of each Asset grouping. For the overall list, it makes more sense to sort by the ADPs so the skills groupings follow a more familiar flow and you can identify profit opportunities easier.
The trade-off is that you have to pay more attention when it comes to the Liabilities. For each player you consider, you will have to make sure you check out the risk factors, which are now scattered randomly throughout each Asset group.
Spreadsheet Mechanics
Pretty simple, really. When a player is nominated for bidding, or selected by another team, find him on the spreadsheet. You’ll likely make good use of the CTL-F (or CMD-F) FIND function for that purpose.
If the player is drafted by another team, delete his row in the spreadsheet. If you acquire him, cut his row (CTL-X or CMD-X) and paste him (CTL-V or CMD-V) into the appropriate row on your blank roster.
As you continue to delete rows of players off the spreadsheet, the pockets of talent and tiers will thin out. It will become more and more obvious when you need to jump in on a particular skill or type of player.
Your profit opportunities will bubble to the top as other owners will likely have those players ranked lower on their lists. BABS keeps them on your radar constantly, so you can pick which ones best fit the needs of your roster, and at the appropriate time.
If you see a run on a stat or role, especially if it occurs on players further down the list, you may need to jump ahead, but you should be able to stick to the list for nearly all your picks.
The Top 300
I provide marketplace rankings for about 300 players. These 300 will cover an entire 12-team mixed draft. In a 15-team mixed league, they’ll cover the first 20 rounds. In a 12-team AL/NL league, they will get you slightly more than halfway into the talent pool. You’ll still need the skills you’ve cultivated in identifying talent for the rest of the draft, but the BABS ratings will help you.
You can use the marketplace rankings as a guide for when you can pick a player or how much to bid. But do not get married to these rankings. The marketplace is worthless without tying in BABS.
I stop the marketplace rankings after about 300. At that point, the draft is dominated by below average and highly speculative talent. The only full-timers left are Asset-less or Liability-laden, or both. There are still a good number of skilled mid-timers left, but their questionable playing time adds to the risk. Once you hit the end-game, the error bars get too wide to worry about.
But that’s okay. This part of the draft is all about finding pockets of hidden skill that fit your roster’s particular needs. Rankings are virtually useless at that point. If you need a second catcher, or a speedy guy to shore up a SB deficiency, or an insurance policy for an injury-prone front-liner, you don’t care whether there is a higher ranked player who doesn’t meet your needs. Yes, in leagues with trading, you can always deal away your excess, but the higher variability of these lower-level picks makes it tough to assess whether any player’s potential is really higher than any other player. Besides, the other owners will have their own end-game favorites so you’ll rarely be competing for the same talent anyway.
Since there are no marketplace rankings at this point, how do you know where to pick players, or how much to bid? In a snake draft, just go after skills. It doesn’t matter where you draft players because the ADPs are mostly useless much after the 10th round anyway. In auctions, just follow the market. It doesn’t matter whether you end up paying $8 for a $3 player. Why? Because nobody can project performance precise enough to tell you what a $3 player really is.
So once you get past the top 300, focus entirely on each player’s Assets and Liabilities. Fill your holes with skilled players who have upside. Spend your Liabilities budget on some young, rising talent.
The Positional Scarcity Bugaboo
The rankings that will diverge the most from your expectations are the players whose value rides on positional scarcity. Remember that positional scarcity only matters if we were able to predict what players are going to do with any precision. If we just profile players based on their actual skills, many of them are just not as good as we think.
Needless to say, catchers don’t fare well. Middle infielders like Ian Kinsler, Jason Kipnis and Brian Dozier rate poorly in BABS. You could make the conscious effort to just draft them higher, or pay more, and that’s certainly your prerogative. Or you could decide to draft the best players regardless of position, ferret out some end-game skills for the roster spots you miss out on, and plan to use the free agent pool to shore up any other holes during the season.
Still, I decided to make a slight concession here. I’ve moved a block of catchers to just after the Top 300. Just so you can find them.
Tactical Considerations: Auctions
Early on, nominate and pay attention to the top players with a particular skills set or role. Once pricing is established for the best starting pitcher, closer, top power hitter and speedster, you’ll get a general sense of where the values should fall for the lesser players.
It works the same way when the first player within a certain skills group gets drafted. The price where the first (P+,a) hitter goes, for instance, sets a rough benchmark for where some of the others in that group might go, adjusted for the impact of any Liabilities.
Once that benchmark is set, you can scan the list of players with comparable profiles and decide where the most profitable targets might be. For instance, if Jose Bautista (P+,a) goes for $29 – $3 higher than his AAV – you might conclude that players of that type will be overpriced. In that case, you could opt to go after a comparable player at the lower end of the AAVs, like Khris Davis, rather than potentially overpaying for a J.D. Martinez or Nelson Cruz.
Tactical Considerations: Snake Drafts
Playing off the marketplace in a snake draft is an inexact science. Unlike auctions where you can bid on whoever you want, here you are at the mercy of the other owners. The best you can do is use BABS as a guide for good spots to grab players. Nobody wants to “reach” further than is necessary, but BABS can help minimize the damage. Two examples:
David Ortiz (P+, AV) is going at #111 but has a skills set comparable to some of the top hitters. This huge discount is likely because of his age and possibly the fact that he only qualifies as a DH. Grabbing him anywhere between picks #90 and #100 is not too much of a reach and still could return tons of profit as compared to similarly skilled players at #36 and earlier.
Seven (ER,k) starting pitchers trail the better arms in strikeout potential yet four of them are being drafted with the higher group. Zack Greinke, Gerrit Cole, David Price and Dallas Keuchel will likely be gone by time you get to that part of the spreadsheet, but that still leaves three pitchers who are have the same basic skills profile. Pushing Jon Lester, Sonny Grey and Johnny Cueto – who are going #60, #63 and #74, respectively – into the high #50s/low #60s should be enough to grab one of them.
Playing Time
The most volatile variable in this process is going to be playing time. The rankings for mid-timers are depressed even if their skills are elite. That pushes a player like Jose Fernandez lower in the rankings than you’ll find elsewhere. But you can’t put 160 innings of (ER,K+) skills alongside the 200-plus innings of Scherzer and Sale. And you can’t arbitrarily slot it ahead of other 200-inning arms whose skills profile might be a tick thinner.
But the nice thing about BABS is you can see exactly where a player is going to slot if their playing time expectation changes. If mid-timer Danny Valencia starts seeing full-time ABs, his (PW,AV) rating would lift him into the group with the other (PW,AV) full-timers, such as Corey Seager and Troy Tulowitzki. If Carter Capps wins the closer’s job outright, his (ER,K+) rating would lift him into the same group as Cody Allen and David Robertson. And if Lance McCullers or Carlos Martinez step up into a higher spot in the rotation, their (ER,KK) rating would lift them into the same group as Madison Bumgarner, Matt Harvey and all the rest of those 4th round arms.
For drafting purposes, you have to pick ’em where they lie. But keep an eye on those players with solid skills who are stuck behind the front-liners on their teams. Fully 70 percent of the surprises in any given season come from players backing into unexpected plate appearances or innings.
Scan BABS; look for the mid-timers and part-timers with big skills. I’ll be doing that in some separate articles next month.
A Real Life Actual BABS Draft
I took BABS out for a spin in January at the SiriusXM/Fantasy Sports Trade Association experts league. This was a 13-team mixed league.
The spreadsheet I used was different from the one here, mostly because there was little marketplace data available in mid-January. But you can still see the effect that BABS had on my drafting process. Here is the team I came away with:
| Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | Pk | Rg | Av | Inj | Ex | Nw | Pk | Ag | Rg | Rd | ||
| J.T. Realmuto | 2 | MIA | F | p | s | a | e | 12 | |||||||||
| Nick Hundley | 2 | COL | F | p | a | inj- | 16 | ||||||||||
| Edwin Encarnacion | 3 | TOR | F | P+ | AV | 1 | |||||||||||
| Matt Carpenter | 5 | STL | F | PW | AV | Rg | 5 | ||||||||||
| Lucas Duda | 3 | NYM | F | P+ | a | 10 | |||||||||||
| Dee Gordon | 4 | MIA | F | S+ | AV | 2 | |||||||||||
| Brad Miller | 6o8 | TAM | F | p | s | a | Nw | 15 | |||||||||
| DJ LeMahieu | 4 | COL | F | SB | AV | Rg | 11 | ||||||||||
| Charlie Blackmon | o8 | COL | F | p | SB | AV | 3 | ||||||||||
| Matt Kemp | o9 | SD | F | P+ | a | 6 | |||||||||||
| Khris Davis | o7 | MIL | F | P+ | a | inj- | 9 | ||||||||||
| Danny Valencia | 5o7 | OAK | M | PW | AV | 21 | |||||||||||
| Dalton Pompey | o8 | TOR | M | SB | EX | 23 | |||||||||||
| Evan Gattis | 0 | HOU | F | PW | a | 17 | |||||||||||
| Target | 14 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |||||||||||
| Pos | Tm | PT | Er | K | Sv | Pk | Rg | Er | Inj | Ex | Nw | Pk | Ag | Rg | |||
| Matt Harvey | SP | NYM | F | ER | KK | 4 | |||||||||||
| Tyson Ross | SP | SD | F | ER | KK | 8 | |||||||||||
| Jeff Samardzija | SP | SF | F | e | k | Pk | Rg | Nw | 13 | ||||||||
| Lance McCullers | SP | HOU | M | ER | KK | EX | 14 | ||||||||||
| Joe Ross | SP | WAS | M | e | k | EX | 18 | ||||||||||
| Kyle Hendricks | SP | CHC | F | e | 19 | ||||||||||||
| Jason Hammel | SP | CHC | F | e | k | 22 | |||||||||||
| David Hernandez | rp | PHI | – | e | K+ | sv- | INJ | Nw | 20 | ||||||||
| Zach Britton | rp | BAL | – | E+ | KK | SV | 7 | ||||||||||
| Target | 7 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Will Smith | Res | MIL | – | ER | K+ | sv- | 24 | ||||||||||
| Tyler Duffey | Res | MIN | M | e | EX | 25 | |||||||||||
| Vince Velasquez | Res | PHI | M | e | KK | EX | 26 | ||||||||||
| Mikie Mahtook | Res | TAM | M | P+ | s | EX | 27 | ||||||||||
| Andrelton Simmons | Res | LAA | F | AV | Nw | 28 | |||||||||||
| Jon Niese | Res | PIT | M | 29 |
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Average), ER (ERA Potential), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves), Pk (Ballpark), Rg (Regression). LIABILITIES: Av (Average), ER (ERA), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience), Nw (New team), Pk (Ballpark), Ag (Age), Rg (Regression)
I know that there is nothing more boring than someone else’s fantasy team, but I think that a walk-through of the BABS thought process could be helpful. Feel free to skip ahead (but I’ll warn you… there is nothing else after this so you might as well read it.)
I drafted at the 13/14 wheel.
Round 1/2: I opened with Edwin Encarnacion (P+,AV) and Dee Gordon (S+,AV), players with extreme skills that gave me an immediate foundation in power and speed. Who did I pass up at that point? Giancarlo Stanton for one, but I’d rather spend my Liabilities budget on lower-ranked players who could provide profit rather than a higher ranked player whose best case is returning not much more than par value. Jose Altuve was also surprisingly still available, but Gordon gives me more of a SB cushion; what little power Altuve might provide can be easily made up later on.
Round 3/4: A.J. Pollock, Mookie Betts and Starling Marte all went off the board in the second round, but like-skilled Charlie Blackmon (p,SB,AV) was still there 17 picks later… Six starting pitchers were already drafted at this point, and since I typically pick a starter in Rd 4, there was no reason to wait; I grabbed Matt Harvey (ER,KK). It was interesting that the lesser-skilled David Price, Zack Greinke and Gerrit Cole were the three pitchers who followed my pick.
Round 5/6: The depth at 3B drops off significantly after the early rounds, but there was a plum still out there once Rd 5 got to me. Matt Carpenter’s (PW,AV) profile compares favorably with much higher valued players; I’m willing to take some regression risk at this point… Getting a player with extreme power potential like Matt Kemp (P+,a) in Rd 6 seemed tough to pass up.
Round 7/8: The biggest downside of drafting at the wheel is the risk of missing out on a run of like players. So sometimes you have to make a defensive pick. The owner seeded #1 snapped up the top two closers at his Rd 6/7 turn, and one more went off the board by the time my pick rolled around. Fearing a run over the next two rounds, I grabbed Zach Britton (E+,KK,SV)… All the (ER,KK) arms were gone by now, except for one. I happily took Tyson Ross.
Round 9/10: It was interesting that, at this point of the draft there were still some extreme power hitters available. It’s always good to stock up on power, so I took Khris Davis (this was before his trade to Oakland) and Lucas Duda (both P+,a). I had gotten through eight rounds without taking on any players with injury or experience Liabilities, so I was okay with taking on Davis’ slight risk given the skills upside.
Round 11/12: Talent at some scarce positions was thinning out. I was hoping to grab a mid-level catcher at this point and was targeting Matt Wieters, but he went in Rd 10. I took DJ LeMahieu (SB,AV), who I see as Altuve-Lite, and J.T. Realmuto (p,s,a), who I was hoping to grab as my #2 backstop. Drafting a catcher with SB potential helps meet those speed goals, but Realmuto carries some experience risk.
Round 13/14: Turning my attention back to pitchers, I took Jeff Samardzija (e,k), a somewhat lesser skilled arm but with some ballpark and regression upside, and Lance McCullers (ER,KK), a mid-timer with the same skills profile as Harvey and Ross. In a 13-team league, I should have been able to roster all front-line 180-IP starters, but McCullers has the best skills profile in the Houston rotation and could move up; I thought it was a chance worth taking, even with McCullers’ experience risk. At worst, it would mean 30-50 fewer innings of elite skill.
Round 15/16: The last of the decent mid-level shortstops went earlier in Rd 15 (Brandon Crawford and Starlin Castro), and with the painfully thin SS pool, I took Brad Miller (p,s,a)… I was committed to staying out of the catcher end-game so I reached a bit and took Nick Hundley (p,a) here, incurring my second injury Liability.
Round 17/18: I am the type who doesn’t like to tie up my DH spot early, and hate DH-only players even more. But when Evan Gattis (PW,a) was still available, I was willing to overlook the roster clog… Took on some more experience risk with mid-timer Joe Ross (e,k) but I had some risk to spare. I like his upside on a Nationals staff that always seems to have someone on the DL. Besides, I was collecting Rosses.
Round 19/20: Filling out my pitching staff, I first took Kyle Hendricks (e). Not my best pick, but I thought I should draft someone projected for a decent number of innings over another mid-timer… With the 2nd closer pool about depleted, I took probable Phillie closer David Hernandez (e,K+,sv-).
Round 21/22/23: With the Gattis clog, I was happy to get the multi-position Danny Valencia (PW,AV) and be able to put him in my OF for now. Here’s hoping he becomes more than a mid-timer… Not a big fan of Jason Hammel (e,k), but in Rd 22, he gives me a pair of starters on the 2016 World Champs… My last pick was an outfielder, and I had clearly fallen behind in accumulating speed guys, so I took on some more experience risk with Dalton Pompey (SB).
Reserves: Looking to beef up some possible weaknesses, I took a speculative closer (Will Smith), two young starters with upside (Tyler Duffey and Vince Velasquez), a backup outfielder in case Pompey fails (Mikie Mahtook, before the Corey Dickerson trade), a backup shortstop (Andrelton Simmons) and Ray Searage’s latest project (Jon Niese).
So, how do you think you did?
I’ll let you know in October. As for BABS, she did pretty well.
I needed to draft the equivalent of all 14 batters with power. I drafted 11, but with the four (P+) hitters, I’m covered.
I needed to draft the equivalent of eight batters with speed. I drafted six, but with Gordon’s (P+), I fell only one short. Given the Pompey risk, I could be very short here.
I needed to draft the equivalent of all 14 batters contributing to batting average. Pompey left me one short.
I needed to draft the equivalent of seven pitchers contributing to ERA. I’m more than covered here.
I needed to draft the equivalent of seven pitchers contributing to strikeouts. Hendricks is the one empty spot, but I might still be facing a shortfall given that the two mid-timer starters could leave me soft on innings.
As for closers, the trio I drafted will be sufficient for now. There will be plenty of churn during the season and opportunities to bulk up if needed.
On the Liabilities side, I stayed within the set limits. I’m a little heavy in experience risk, especially when including my reserves, but I think I avoided any major potholes. We’ll see. As I wrote in Chapter 4, every player starts out with 25 percent odds of getting hurt, so it’s not like I can count on avoiding injuries completely.
And that’s it.
I suggest taking BABS out for a run by doing some mock drafts. That will give you a feel for the process and the flow, and allow you to amp up your comfort level. Then you can go LIVE!
Next week, I’ll have some closing comments and shout-outs to the Tout Wars contributors. I’ll be going back through all eight chapters and re-editing them for the book’s release as a PDF next Friday. As a site member, you can download that for free, although if you’re reading this, odds are you’ve already seen everything.
During the rest of March, I’ll continue to provide site members with different cuts of the BABS pie, looking at the upside potential of players with liabilities and playing time concerns, keeper league considerations and more.
I think I’m done typing now.
Bravo, Loved it! So excited to use this in upcoming drafts. Good work as always Ron!
Wow. That. Was. Awesome.
I’ll be honest, part way through I thought to myself “you’ve been using the CDG from HQ for so many years with decent success, are you really ready to completely change gears?” In my keeper league I especially like taking a player’s projected value, finding the variance from his salary and using the difference + his projected value as a “keeper ranking” – from the HQ Strategy Vault. I will miss that.
All of that said, I also recently traded for Carlos Gomez in the same league because of the BABS system (Moving an expiring Kinsler contract and expiring Semien contract)
Anyway, this is all to say that this chapter completely sold me on the system, the “ranking” process & the spreadsheet that helps put it all together.
Well done Sir
I don’t care what you say. The walkthrough was not only helpful, it was fun!
Will you be updating the adp and +/- regularly? Like at a certain weekly time? I’d like to wait as late as possible for the best info before I download for my drafts late March.
Ron,
How would you translate these rankings to a head to head points league? Is there much difference?
For those of us snake draft participants that are used to drafting off of our ranking lists, this is a lot to get your head around. But I’m looking forward to practicing with it in mock drafts and then putting it into use. Thanks, Ron, I’ll be driving from Memphis to St. Louis Sunday. See you then.
It’s quite a process to create this chart so I only have one planned update, the last week of March. If I have time, I might do one mid-month but my travel schedule could preclude that.
As noted in the FAQ, “BABS is not going to be all things for all leagues, especially if you use hybrid categories or rules. However, you can make some adjustments yourself. The BABS targets can be prorated based on the depth your league drafts into the player pool.” But most of all, the Asset and Liability indicators apply to any league.
Thanks for making that long trip this weekend. In past years, we’ve had folks drive from Louisville to Cleveland, and from Raleigh to DC to attend these excellent 3-hour events so you’re in good company! (firstpitchforums.com)
Is there a “magic” formula for converting ADP to AAV? Probably more importantly, how does the formula change to other league formats (e.g., 10-team AL/NL only leagues, 12-team Mixed, 12-team AL/NL only)? Thanks!
In an AL-only league your 300 players shrinks considerably. How do we adjust for the shortfall of players short of a complete revaluation?
Questions, Questions, Questions! I think Ron has created a monster (a good one).
BABSzilla out of control and destroying all opponents in her path!
thank you, ron. huge amount of work. HUGE value for those of us listening. and great fun—well put together. swk
As noted above, once you exhaust the players with a marketplace ranking, the stats get too small to project with any confidence. Just target high-skilled players that fit your needs. In an auction, you’re into single-digit buys at that point, and it doesn’t matter if you pay $2 or $6 or $8. Certainly manage your budget but the exact dollar value of any player is not projectable.
There is a formula, it’s not “magic”, and it does appear in the Baseball Forecaster on page 51 (I’m not at liberty to give it away). It was designed for a 15-team mixed league and I do not know the mechanics of what it would take to convert it to other formats.
I’m a Baseball Forecaster subscriber, and have been for years, so I’ll grab it there. Thanks!
How should I convert dollar values for your 15 team mixed into my 12 team AL only league
Also I am confused by the number values- they do not match up with the colors- I assume to colors correspond to the BABS method and the numbers are what we expect people to be paying who are using conventional means?
Numbers would have to be re-run. There is no direct conversion. But the actual values are less important than the general values. You know who the $30 and $20 players are. Whether someone is $27 or $23 is irrelevant.
Correct.
I’m taking this a step farther. I’m an active trader, usually doing around 12-15 trades every year.
I don’t ever pay at auction to fill perceived talent holes. Like, for example, let’s say I took five hitters with power and no speed. If the next good value on my list pops up, and I can get him for a good price, and his only skill is power, I’m taking him. If I end up with zero speed, but 14 bargains at hitting positions, I’m happy. Because come May 1 I’m trading to get that speed.
Basically, I’m an advocate of taking the best player (or best value) available. Specific skill traits be damned. I have six months to get the skills I need.
Well, realistically 3 months…
Ron: Sad to miss you this year in Natick (still have your (OK, eavesdropped) “I think Kemp’s gonna have a monster year” ringing in my Roto brain).
Now The Big Question: What’s the deal with the numbers hiding in Column D? Is that BABS’s other look for Saturday nights “out with the girls”?
Well sure, absolutely. You have to know your league and what you can do. But BABS can be even more valuable by pointing out the best players, regardless of “value.”
I had just numbered the players as they appear on the BABS list. They serve no value but I didn’t want to delete the column.
I know you’re probably going to cover which players to protect but my 12tm mixed league’s protect list is due in a couple days. I can keep 10 players. I already have 4 I know I’m keeping. Any suggestions as to who I should protect for the final 6 spots? W. Castillo 9, Mesoraco 6, Moreland 7, Schoop 9, B. Crawford 9, A. Cabrera 9, Plouffe 5, Piscotty 7, R. Martin 5, Choo 17, Desciafani 7, Liriano 5, McCullers 7, D. Robertson 14.
Answer depends in part on who your first 4 are. In a vacuum – Crawford, Piscotty, Martin, McCullers for sure. Maybe Schoop, maybe Liriano, maybe DeSclafani, maybe Robertson. Again, depends on the other 4.
The four I’m keeping are: T. Ross 6, Encarnacion 28, Cain 8, C. Gomez 13. Thanks for your input.
Ron
Usually wouldn’t ask these types of questions, but the BABS method has created some indecision on my part. In an auction league ( mixed 14 team typical stats/lineups $260 draft limit ) I get to keep 10 keepers…Before some big trades ( Dickerson and Chapman ) I thought I had this figured out. Then , coupled with these trades and the BABS system…Not as sure anymore…One of these guys must go back into the free agency pool …S Marte 28, C Dickerson 12, B McCann 12, Dozier 14, Castellanos 10, Cron 3, C Carrasco 12, R Iglesias 10, L McCuellers 10, Familia 10, A Miller 9…Originally, Miller and Dickerson were obvious keepers, then came the trades…McCann wasn’t on this list at all until the BABS rankings came out, which seems to say McCann has more value than Dozier. One of the tough things about Miller is, of course, Chapmans suspension status. Also, not included on this list is Kemp 23 ( though I am quite sure I can , if I want, to get him at close to this price when bidding ) …Anyways , sorry for being so wordy, but who would you throw back to the bidding pool. Dozier? McCann? Miller ? appreciate any input you may have…LOVE the BABS method btw and look forward to implementing it 3 leagues this year. Thanks for keeping up the great work.
Can you explain why the p AVG group is ranked higher than the PWR a group ?
I’m on a Mac. I took your Excel list and tried to remove a player by hitting the delete button and nothing happened. What did I do wrong?
Also, I am assuming the +sign in the third column is there when the BABS rating is well above the ADP. Also in the same column what is the meaning of the red X.
Hi Ron,
Interesting information, as usual!
I can keep 6 players from last year. Position players and pitchers have an equal # of counting categories in our H to H league. I was planning on keeping 5 position players (Trout, Stanton, Bryant, Correa and Encarnacion) and Jose Fernandez. I realize that Bryant and Correa have red X’s, but try to look beyond one year. I could keep Jose Bautista instead of Fernandez, but was again, looking at my team long-term. Given your BABS rating system, do you feel that I should alter my strategy? Keep Bautista instead of Fernandez? Thanks!!!
With only one pitcher being kept, I’d definitely keep McCullers with those other 3, then possibly Liriano and DeSclafani. 4 pitchers out of 10 keepers is reasonable.
All of these players are at a fair price. Do you see anyone on this list who you might be able to get back at auction at about the same price? Dickerson maybe? Miller, if the draft is before a decision comes down on Chapman? With Dozier and McCann slotted into full-time gigs I’m reluctant to cut either one at those prices – unless you think you could get them back at that price.
Because they bring two assets to the table, and AVG is nearly comparable to PWR on its own. The addition of “p” puts it over.
The file was created on a Mac so I’m not sure what to tell you about the file. A description of the indicators are above in this chapter.
The rules are different in keeper leagues. It’s a completely different marketplace. I’ll be writing about that in a few weeks, but in short, you can’t look at skills in a vacuum. Bryant’s and Correa’s “X”s are because their current market prices are inflated as compared to their expected 2016 value (I assume you are keeping them at drastically reduced 2015 prices). 2017 and beyond is a separate story. You certainly keep Fernandez over Bautista if only because you should go into 2016 with at least one pitcher.
Sorry if I wasn’t clear. It’s the [p AVG] group which is ranked higher than the [PWR a] group. Both groups bring two assets. V
Ah… that does look a little odd. They’re really very close, but look further apart than they should be mostly because there is a bunch of pitchers separating them on the list. I might have to tweak this a bit but do know they’re very close.
nice job Ron,
still a little addicted to the old supposed precision, and am shaking that off with this great perspective. Thank You
Martin
Thank you Ron. Actually, your question has got me to thinking. In this league you can keep UP to ten, but you can keep as little as you wish. After some thought, I may throw back both Miller and Dickerson. I have till the 15th to decide. So with any luck the Tampa manager will declare Dickerson a full time DH ( or a platooning OF ) , and the Chapman suspension will be announced ( or dismissed ) . I will be keeping McCann and Dozier. Thanks for the input.
this is exactly what I’m struggling with. You are assigning a value to s, AV, P+, etc to formulate your rankings … but in chapter 5 I believe, where you talk about using the Asset/Liability sheet a P+ is equivalent to PW and p. P+ does negate a player with no Power rating.
I dont have a problem accepting your rankings (god knows I drink the Shandler kool-aid with the best of them, even helped fund your daughters album), but I dont play in 15 team mixed leagues. I’m just feeling that I need a little more substance to the value of each category to formulate the list for my leagues.
Ron,
Curious as to your opinion on a couple things. First, I am in a 10 team league H2H with significantly more roster spots than average. We dont have the entire player universe available so rookies typically get picked up during the season using waiver priority. Second, what are your thoughts on what to do with my bench? Typically I have a few bench bats, but this year with BABS I was thinking that pitching is more scarce and I was going to snatch up everything with possible profit involved. Thoughts?
P+ is equivalent to PW and p in that they all represent some level of power contribution and the BABS targets don’t care which you have when it comes to meeting the minimum. However, you always want MORE than the minimum, and there are two ways to get MORE. One is to have more players who contribute. The other is to have your already contributing players have higher ratings. Then, PW is better than p and P+ is better than PW. But don’t get hung up on whether (PW,a) is better or worse than (p,AV) or any other combination. In the early stages of the draft (which is when those players would appear), you’re just looking for the best fits for your roster and the best “buys” as compared to the marketplace. The rankings are just rough approximations of value.
Your questions are kinda vague, but it sounds like this may be league-specific. Generally, pitching is far from scarce and you can always pick up valuable arms during the season – which does not negate the strategy of stocking your bench with pitchers, especially if your active arms are weak. But whatever you do, picking up profitable players is never a bad strategy (unless you’re sacrificing solid at-par players in the process).
I should also mention that with my first pick in the draft Rd 2, pick 15 I took Chapman over Cano due to Chapman having two elite skills and strong save prospects (I correlate Chap having a 5 BABS score). I completely overlooked his potential impending suspension though. By selecting Chapman over Cano based on BABS, I made the correct choice?
I might have gone with Cano. Don’t overlook playing time. A full-time batter has to rate over a pitcher with fewer innings, regardless of the skills. And the general fickleness of saves are always a concern.
This is a keeper league and there has been a massive closer run. I was lucky to get Chapman there. I am targeting LeMaheiu later. Currently have Stanton, Encarnacion, Betts, Marte, Arenado, Sale, Scherzer, Piscotty, Conforto, and Chapman.
and Carrasco.
that helps!!!
This statement really clarifies it for me: “But don’t get hung up on whether (PW,a) is better or worse than (p,AV) or any other combination.”
Thanx Ron
14/39 picks have been closers.
You have to know your league. That always drives your decision.
Ron,
I just want to make a statement here of simple gratitude: your thoughts and systems—the Forecaster, and now BABS—have given me effective, analytical tools I can use in constructing my fantasy teams, which is a form of intellectual play that I find immensely fun. Hugely fun. So, a resounding thank you.
Ron – how do you calculate your targets? Example, you targeted 14 players with power assets. Are you giving “extreme” a 3, “significant” 2 and “moderate” 1?
I do use a rough formula to assign +/- points to each asset and liability for ranking purposes. However, it is more art than science and I do a good amount of tweaking so it’s not something I’d be comfortable publishing. Yet.
That stinks! 😉 But I understand. Reason I say that is you have targeted 14 for P/AV and 6 for SP while you are after 7 for ER/K and I assume 3 for SV since you said “my trio…”.
Well that is the formula I am using – better than nothing until/if you decide to publish!
Needless to say I am absolutely without a doubt in love with BABS. She is a rockstar!
Let’s see if I’m understanding this correctly:
I am in a 15 Tm 5×5 Mixed League. I can keep Jose Altuve at $32 which is perhaps $1-3 under projected value. I usually prefer to keep high value players at par value even as they are hard to come by in the auction. What BABs is telling me is that Altuve’s skills only support a value of no higher than $29. All things being equal, BABs is telling me not to keep Altuve as his projected earnings are not supported by his skills.
Do I have it correct?
Thanks 🙂
In keeper leagues, draft inflation alone make these dollar comparisons irrelevant, and $3 is noise in any case. I’ll be writing about keeper leagues shortly.
Took BABS out for a run in a Draft Champions draft that just concluded, I only had the hitter lists available when it started and had to wait on the SP and RP but I winged it until I did. Ended up with some of the same players (Carpenter, LaMahieu, K Davis) interestingly enough but I was hungry for a new system. At the very least, I really like pulling away from the traditional ADP route and thinking about players in a different way…BABS has helped greatly with that. Since then, two more drafts and I love the look of my teams, we’ll see of course but having a lot more fun in drafts and isn’t that what it’s all about! Thanks Ron, keep up the good work!
Hello Ron. i am really embracing the BABS concept. i won a roto league running away last year because of a once in a lifetime alignment of where everything portfolio 3 mayberry went my way. i kept a spreadsheet to tally the overall target for mayberry skill. can you explain how we should be using the target bar in the babs file? is it to account for the 14 playing time guys on a 12 team lg info? and will the row adjust for your input? thanks
Robert – Sorry but I don’t understand your question. What do you mean by “target bar”? We have targets – the number of players who possess certain skills or PT. There are the green/orange bars which represent the marketplace. And what row and what input?
Sorry Ron i should have been more specific. At the top of the article it reads “The grey Target bar is where you should input your Asset goals and Liability limits, based on the data in Chapter 5. Then as the draft progresses, you’ll be able to keep up with where you are and where you need to be.” On my team construction page , in the gray target bar i will input 14 pt guys, 14 power guys, etc. as i copy and paste players into my roster i will then be able to keep tabs on what i am rostering. Will the target total drop as i add a player or will have to manually adjust that?
I have another question. I need 14 power bats and i roster Revere, but an Encarnacion gets me the free pass to roster Revere. Lets say i have no intents on rostering a Revere type, can i essentially count Encarnacions extreme power twice as i build toward getting “14” power bats. Can i make “14” a total rather than the actual amount of players who have that skill? Or is that just stretching it? Thanks for your time.
You’ll have to manually adjust that. I suspect that BABS 2.0 will be more automated.
You can count on Encarnacion providing additional power above the minimum, but you still need to meet the minimum. He still counts as “one player with power.”
Thanks a lot much appreciated
1. Could you add a key below the roster in the next update?
2. Any chance you’ll make separate AL/NL lists? Dividing up all these players is going to be a chore.
1. I’ll try to remember to do this.
2. I am hoping to have the time to publish AL/NL-only lists later this week. No guarantees, but I’m hoping to open up time to do this.
Okay, this may be nitpicking a little, but just curious, if the rankings are supposed to be void of any bias, shouldn’t Harper and Stanton fall below Encarnacion because of their injury risks, and same with Betts falling below Marte because of his experience risk, same with Abreu, Adam Jones, and Adrian Gonzalez with nothing on the risk side, coming in ahead of Miggy’s slight injury risk, and so on down the list? When all assets are equal, don’t player with risks fall below those with no risks?
As noted above: “On the positional charts in Chapter 6, I sorted the players so that those with risk factors appeared at the end of each Asset grouping. For the overall list, it makes more sense to sort by the ADPs so the skills groupings follow a more familiar flow and you can identify profit opportunities easier.
The trade-off is that you have to pay more attention when it comes to the Liabilities. For each player you consider, you will have to make sure you check out the risk factors, which are now scattered randomly throughout each Asset group.”
I just subscribed, but my initial thought as I’m looking at this is to pretty much discount the speed category (maybe use it as a small tiebreaker) since the speed points are generally pretty insignificant compared to the power points. While AVG doesn’t literally count, those hits are still valuable for points. So for my purposes, Dee Gordon and Ben Revere don’t belong in the top tier and maybe not that clump of p/SB/AV guys around Pollock.
Fair enough. I do talk about points leagues a bit in this week’s post on Alternative Rules.
Thanks for sharing this idea with the world, Ron! I am getting ready to draft for the first time using BABS this week. It’s a live draft with most teams using the ranking lists from other popular internet sites as their guide through the draft. I don’t want my team to be a slave to ADP’s or these site’s blind rankings, but I am afraid of missing a player who has ‘dropped’ to me because I’m focused on my BABS sheet only.
With this in mind, I’m curious of the function of drafting using the BABS sheet. Would you recommend following the sheet as constructed and consider value and bargains as they identify themselves in the spreadsheet? Or should I sort the ADP column in the sheet in order to have a more familiar ranking? My fear with this is that I will lose the simplicity of the BABS categorization. Any guidance would be greatly appreciated!
Keep the rankings as they are. If you use the spreadsheet as described and delete each row as the player is drafted, the best players will bubble to the top. If you think you’re missing a player who has “dropped” to you, he probably isn’t worth drafting at that point anyway UNLESS a position thins out. So you do need to keep an eye on the positions OR just draft the best players and worry about positions over the next 6 months. Draft day is just the start.
So I took BABS for a spin today in a mock draft online. A few observations. 1) Don’t do this on a laptop, unless using a real mouse. If you’re like me, your finger will stick to the touchpad too many times, making your spreadsheet jump to places you don’t want, and take too long to get back to where you want to be. 2) It is hard to keep up in mocks, because these people apparently just want to see who they get in the first and second round, and then jump out, thus after a few rounds, most picks go in 10 seconds. You better be pretty good on the ol’ computer to be able to delete players, copy and paste your own picks into your roster, and still pay attention and make decisions based on what you need in your roster. I usually try to think a few rounds ahead, and doing the cut and paste/delete rows method was too much multitasking for me. I might try keeping track the old fashioned way, with pen and paper, just crossing off the players as they are drafted. And 3) I’m tempted to re-sort each group of identical asset players, dropping the liabilities to the bottom of the groups, simply because if things do get going quickly, and you need to make a quick decision, choosing the highest ranking player you see in any given group of like assets, you obviously want the player with less liabilities at the top of the list.
If this saves just one life, it’s worth it (or wait, is that OVI checkpoints?)…..
Good advice! I’m hoping BABS 2.0 comes with an automated solution next year. But where are you mocking that people only hang around for a few rounds? Seems like a mock like that is pretty useless, no?
I did two mocks on Yahoo today, simply because I play in two Yahoo leagues. I like to see how the players are ranked, and therefore, how they might come off the board, or how they might be SUGGESTED to come off the board, for those who are lazy and don’t do any homework, and just take whatever is on the screen in front of them. Also, it gives me a chance to check out the layout of the draft room, one less distraction I need to worry about on Draft Days.
And yes, the exercise itself seems pretty useless when 8 of 12 people drop out after the 2nd or 3rd round. But it was a good first attempt at using BABS, and as I said, I learned the above stated things. I will definitely try BABS in a few mocks on my desktop, with an actual mouse, to see if I can use the Excel file more effectively. The 10 second picks may actually be good practice, just in case things do get going quickly in my real drafts…and it gives me better familiarity with BABS, even knowing the order of players coming off the board as shown, I will better see the discrepancies between the Yahoo rankings and the BABS rankings, and hopefully give me a better idea of where I can find the bargains.
Fair enough. Good luck when you go live!