RSOB Chapter 6G: Starting Pitchers

February 16, 2016

New to “Ron Shandler’s Other Book”? Read the Introduction. 

In most fantasy formats, pitchers vary from hitters in one key way. With fewer relevant counting stats, their measurable value rests in ratio gauges – primarly ERA – that have wider error bars than just about any other metric.

Look at the 2015 performance of a pitcher like Felix Hernandez. It is commonly concluded that 2015 was an off-year, particularly as compared to 2014. And yes, there were indicators of some skills erosion. However, the stats from two starts (out of 31) were the killers – 2.2 IP, 18 ER. Sure, you cannot arbitrarily remove those starts, but Seattle manager Lloyd McClendon could have pulled Hernandez earlier and avoided the extent of the statistical damage. That was a managerial call. Still, the difference in perception came down to those two ridiculously bad starts. Look:

2014                       2.14 ERA
2015                       3.53
Minus the deadly starts    2.75

Now we’re talking 0.61 of a run difference from 2014. Over 200 innings, that’s two runs per month.

ERAs will always be volatile so the best we can do is focus on the skills. When you put those skills into buckets, you’ll find that most pitchers are not much different from one another. What’s more, once you get below a certain skills threshold, it hardly matters at all who you put on your roster. You can try to find factors that set individual pitchers apart, but virtually none of it will be projectable in the end. 

ASSETS LIABILITIES
PITCHER Pos Tm PT ER K Sv Pk Rg ER Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg
Kershaw,Clayton SP LA F E+ K+
Sale,Chris SP CHW F ER K+
Scherzer,Max SP WAS F ER K+
Archer,Chris SP TAM F ER KK
Bumgarner,Madison SP SF F ER KK
Carrasco,Carlos SP CLE F ER KK
deGrom,Jacob SP NYM F ER KK
Hamels,Cole SP TEX F ER KK
Harvey,Matt SP NYM F ER KK
Hernandez,Felix SP SEA F ER KK
Kluber,Corey SP CLE F ER KK
Ross,Tyson SP SD F ER KK
Arrieta,Jake SP CHC F ER KK Rg
Syndergaard,Noah SP NYM F ER KK e
Strasburg,Stephen SP WAS F ER KK inj-
Cueto,Johnny SP SF F ER k Pk Nw
Cole,Gerrit SP PIT F ER k
Gray,Sonny SP OAK F ER k
Lester,Jon SP CHC F ER k
Price,David SP BOS F ER k Nw
Keuchel,Dallas SP HOU F ER k Rg
Greinke,Zack SP ARI F ER k Nw Rg
Salazar,Danny SP CLE F e KK
Iglesias,Raisel SP CIN F e KK inj- EX
Samardzija,Jeff SP SF F e k Pk Rg Nw
Gonzalez,Gio SP WAS F e k
Hammel,Jason SP CHC F e k
Nelson,Jimmy SP MIL F e k
Shields,James SP SD F e k
Teheran,Julio SP ATL F e k
Wacha,Michael SP STL F e k
Wood,Alex SP LA F e k
DeSclafani,Anthony SP CIN F e k e
Walker,Taijuan SP SEA F e k e
Richards,Garrett SP LAA F e k inj-
Ventura,Yordano SP KC F e k inj-
Darvish,Yu SP TEX M ER K+ INJ
Fernandez,Jose SP MIA M ER K+ INJ
Wainwright,Adam SP STL F ER INJ
Martinez,Carlos SP STL M ER KK
Liriano,Francisco SP PIT M ER KK inj-
McCullers,Lance SP HOU M ER KK EX
Smyly,Drew SP TAM M ER KK INJ
Hendricks,Kyle SP CHC F e
Quintana,Jose SP CHW F e
Chen,Wei-Yin SP MIA F e Nw
Miley,Wade SP SEA F e Nw
Zimmermann,Jordan SP DET F e Nw
Cashner,Andrew SP SD F e inj-
Lackey,John SP CHC F e Nw Ag Rg
Iwakuma,Hisashi SP SEA F e INJ
Severino,Luis SP NYY M ER k EX
Ryu,Hyun-Jin SP LA M ER k INJ
Tanaka,Masahiro SP NYY M ER k INJ
Velasquez,Vincent SP PHI M e KK EX
Jimenez,Ubaldo SP BAL F k
Verlander,Justin SP DET F k inj-
Fiers,Mike SP HOU M e k
McHugh,Collin SP HOU M e k
Kazmir,Scott SP LA M e k Nw
Rodon,Carlos SP CHW M e k e
Maeda,Kenta SP LA M e k EX
Ross,Joe SP WAS M e k EX
Bailey,Homer SP CIN M e k INJ
Pineda,Michael SP NYY M e k INJ
Stroman,Marcus SP TOR M ER inj- e
Garcia,Jaime SP STL M ER INJ
Matz,Steven SP NYM M ER INJ EX
Gallardo,Yovani SP FAA F
Gibson,Kyle SP MIN F
Santana,Ervin SP MIN F
Volquez,Edinson SP KC F
Leake,Mike SP STL F Nw
Miller,Shelby SP ARI F Nw
Dickey,R.A. SP TOR F Ag
Heaney,Andrew SP LAA F EX
Jungmann,Taylor SP MIL F -ER e
Lewis,Colby SP TEX F -ER Ag
Anderson,Brett SP LA M e inj-
Porcello,Rick SP BOS M e inj-
Davies,Zachary SP MIL M e EX
Duffey,Tyler SP MIN M e EX
Nola,Aaron SP PHI M e EX
Buchholz,Clay SP BOS M e INJ
Corbin,Patrick SP ARI M e INJ
Latos,Mat SP FAA M e INJ
Hahn,Jesse SP OAK M e INJ e
Bauer,Trevor SP CLE M k
Hutchison,Drew SP TOR M k
Kennedy,Ian SP KC M k
Chavez,Jesse SP TOR M k Nw
Happ,J.A. SP TOR M k Nw
Norris,Bud SP ATL M k Nw
Karns,Nathan SP SEA M k e Nw
Odorizzi,Jake SP TAM M k inj-
Hellickson,Jeremy SP PHI M k inj- Nw
Eickhoff,Jerad SP PHI M k EX
Finnegan,Brandon SP CIN M k EX
Gray,Jonathan SP COL M k EX
Lamb,John SP CIN M k EX
Sanchez,Anibal SP DET M k Rg INJ
Tropeano,Nicholas SP LAA M k EX
Gausman,Kevin SP BAL M k inj- e
Santiago,Hector SP LAA M k -ER
de la Rosa,Jorge SP COL M k INJ
Moore,Matt SP TAM M k INJ
Sabathia,CC SP NYY M k INJ
Stephenson,Robert SP CIN M k -ER EX
Norris,Daniel SP DET M k -ER INJ EX
Reyes,Alexander SP STL – ER K+ EX
De La Rosa,Rubby SP ARI M
Eovaldi,Nathan SP NYY M
Kelly,Joe SP BOS M
Locke,Jeff SP PIT M
Milone,Tommy SP MIN M
Niese,Jon SP PIT M
Ramirez,Erasmo SP TAM M
Roark,Tanner SP WAS M
Estrada,Marco SP TOR M Rg
Bolsinger,Michael SP LA M e
Ray,Robbie SP ARI M e
Shoemaker,Matthew SP LAA M e
Colon,Bartolo SP NYM M Ag
Rodriguez,Wandy SP HOU M Ag
Duffy,Danny SP KC M inj-
Hughes,Phil SP MIN M inj-
Andriese,Matt SP TAM M EX
Bassitt,Chris SP OAK M EX
Conley,Adam SP MIA M EX
Rodriguez,Eduardo SP BOS M EX
Bettis,Chad SP COL M inj- e
Danks,John SP CHW M -ER
Koehler,Tom SP MIA M -ER
Simon,Alfredo SP FAA M -ER
Tillman,Chris SP BAL M -ER
Feldman,Scott SP HOU M INJ
Fister,Doug SP WAS M INJ
Holland,Derek SP TEX M INJ
Medlen,Kris SP KC M INJ
Nova,Ivan SP NYY M INJ
Peralta,Wily SP MIL M INJ
Perez,Martin SP TEX M INJ
Tomlin,Josh SP CLE M INJ
Wilson,C.J. SP LAA M INJ
Lohse,Kyle SP FAN M Rg -ER Ag
Morton,Charlie SP PHI M INJ Nw
Perez,Williams SP ATL M inj- EX
Elias,Roenis SP BOS M -ER e Nw
Paxton,James SP SEA M INJ e
Skaggs,Tyler SP LAA M INJ e
Young,Chris SP KC M -ER Ag
Pelfrey,Mike SP DET M -ER inj- Nw
Anderson,Cody SP CLE M -ER EX
Garza,Matt SP MIL M Rg -ER INJ
Lorenzen,Michael SP CIN M -ER EX
Morgan,Adam SP PHI M -ER EX
Nicolino,Justin SP MIA M -ER EX
Wisler,Matthew SP ATL M -ER EX
Cain,Matt SP SF M -ER INJ
Cosart,Jarred SP MIA M -ER INJ
Gonzalez,Miguel SP BAL M -ER INJ
Harang,Aaron SP FAN M -ER inj- Ag
Lyles,Jordan SP COL M -ER INJ
Nolasco,Ricky SP MIN M -ER INJ
Peavy,Jake SP SF M -ER INJ
Weaver,Jered SP LAA M -ER INJ
Cotton,Jharel SP LA P ER k EX
Manaea,Sean SP OAK P ER k EX
Lee,Cliff SP FAN P ER k INJ Ag
Hill,Rich SP OAK P e KK Nw Ag Rg
Lyons,Tyler SP STL P e k e
Berrios,Jose SP MIN P e k EX
Glasnow,Tyler SP PIT P e k EX
Lopez,Jorge SP MIL P e k EX
Montas,Frankie SP LA P e k EX
Reed,Cody SP CIN P e k EX
Snell,Blake SP TAM P e k EX
Urias,Julio SP LA P e k EX
Cobb,Alex SP TAM P e k INJ
Wheeler,Zack SP NYM P e k INJ e
Bundy,Dylan SP BAL P e k INJ EX
De Leon,Jose SP LA P K+ EX
Sims,Lucas SP ATL P K+ EX
Blackburn,Clayton SP SF P ER EX
Newcomb,Sean SP ATL P KK EX
Below,Duane SP NYM P e e
Blair,Aaron SP ATL P e EX
Cooney,Tim SP STL P e EX
Fulmer,Michael SP DET P e EX
Lee,Zach SP LA P e EX
Wagner,Tyler SP MIL P e EX
McCarthy,Brandon SP LA P e INJ
Richard,Clayton SP CHC P e INJ
Whitley,Chase SP TAM P e INJ e Nw
Flores,Kendry SP MIA P e INJ EX
Giolito,Lucas SP WAS P k EX
Hultzen,Danny SP SEA P k EX
Lincecum,Tim SP FAN P k INJ
Morrow,Brandon SP SD P k INJ
Owens,Henry SP BOS P k -ER EX
Montero,Rafael SP NYM P k INJ EX

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), ER (ERA Potential), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves), Pk (Ballpark), Rg (Regression). LIABILITIES: ER (ERA), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience), Nw (New team), Pk (Ballpark), Ag (Age), Rg (Regression)

Clayton Kershaw is a god. Chris Sale and Max Scherzer are nearly as holy. In fact, their individual profiles are close enough that any one of the three could be ranked ahead of the others. That does not necessarily mean one of them will be the top earner come October – that honor is often reserved for an outlier who has his one shining (*cough* Keuchel *cough*) season – but among the three, I would not be surprised to see Sale or Scherzer finish ahead of Kershaw.

Behind that trio is a huge block of a dozen (ER,KK) pitchers who are essentially interchangeable. You will recognize them as the group that will typically be gone by the end of the fourth round. These are the $20-plus anchor arms. Most drafters will work hard to differentiate, but really, “as long as I get one of them, I’ll be fine” is the typical refrain. Sound familiar?

A few of those pitchers will probably slip to the 5th or 6th rounds – which is still essentially the same bucket – but one stands out as more of an outlier: Tyson Ross. Ross’ peripherals stack up well with the rest of the group, the one exception being his elevated walk rate. That has inflated his WHIP over the years, though he has posted extended stretches with a sub-1.20 level. Add in the sub-par support of his Padres teammates and you can see how his ADP gets pushed towards triple-digits. But I have no trouble ranking him near the bottom of the (ER,KK) group.

As you can surmise, the whole concept of interchangeability fascinates me. We spend so much time obsessing over finding differences among players that we overlook the power of sameness when it comes to leveraging the marketplace. I decided to ask the Tout Wars experts if they really could distinguish among the pitchers in this group:

                          BABS        ADP     R$
                       -----------    ---    ---
Max Scherzer              ER,K+        13    $33
Chris Sale                ER,K+        26    $26
Madison Bumgarner         ER,KK        28    $25
Jose Fernandez         ER,K+ | INJ     29    $25
Stephen Strasburg      ER,KK | inj-    41    $21

I asked:

Evaluate the following pitchers in terms of skill and risk, and rank them based on how you think they will do in 2017. (NOT 2016). Number them 1 to 5 with 1 being best and 5 being worst.

The 2017 twist was intended to help them focus away from the immediate future and provide a more overall, long-term assessment. I scored their results as 5 points for a “1” vote, 4 points for a “2” vote, down to 1 point for a “5” vote. The results from the 32 respondents:

                      Points    1st place votes
                      ------    ---------------
Jose Fernandez          114          12
Chris Sale              108           7
Max Scherzer            107           7
Madison Bumgarner       107           6
Stephen Strasburg        43           0

In the world of statistical significance, these are four indistinguishable pitchers… and Stephen Strasburg. The impact on the marketplace is what is important. This says that you do not have to pay the premium of 1-2 rounds, or $7-$8 to draft Max Scherzer.

The Assets of Jose Fernandez (and Yu Darvish) grade out at the same level as Sale and Scherzer (ER,K+) but they are ranked much further back because of questions about innings and injury risk. They are the epitome of high risk, high reward commodities. Similarly, only innings are holding back pitchers like Carlos Martinez and Lance McCullers (ER,KK) from ranking among the elite.

When projected innings are the only thing holding back a skilled pitcher from ranking higher, consider that the odds of an injury to a pitcher blocking him is incredibly high. If the skills are truly there, the innings will come. So if you have the choice between a mid-timer like Martinez or McCullers versus a full-timer with lesser skills or more Liabilities, go with the better-skilled mid-timer (who will probably cost less).

It’s not quite the same with the part-timers. These are mostly fringe starter candidates. While all the arms listed here have some measurable Asset, every one also has some risk, either health or experience. At best, you can tuck a few on a reserve list, but most of these are longshot speculations.

There are 10 full-timers (180-plus innings) and more than 50 mid-timers who have nothing on the Assets side of the ledger at all. These huge buckets of asset-less pitchers are begging for differentiation, but it’s mostly a waste of time. The skills are all below average so your focus has to be on the Liabilities. If you’re drafting this far into the talent pool, any upside is going to be speculative and unprojectable; it’s all about damage control.

So, flip a coin between Ervin Santana and Edinson Volquez. Weigh the risk between Shelby Miller in his new D-back digs versus Andrew Heaney’s lack of experience. You can hedge the innings and take a chance that Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage can work magic with Jon Niese, or that Nathan Eovaldi will suddenly find some movement to his fastball. By October, we will be able to rank them all, but right now, there are too many variables and too little skill to make them projectable.

With these guys, just protect your backside. And certainly stay away from any arm with (-ER) on the liabilities side. They will be ERA/WHIP killers.

 

Posted in Book updates, RSOB and tagged , ,

14 Comments

  1. Larry King on February 16, 2016 at 9:25 pm

    I was looking at this and other players. Noticed guys like Stroman and Matz are not even rated as strikeout assets. Both their minor league and even limited MLB experience shows them as K/IP guys which is more than even McCullers who has never profiled as a K pitcher but is a “KK” in this ranking.



  2. shandler on February 17, 2016 at 8:35 am

    It’s not just about strikeouts, it’s about the sustainability of those strikeouts. So the rating includes swinging strike rates and first pitch strike rates as well as historical strikeout rates. For instance, a pitcher who might have a solid K rate in the past might not be getting a lot of swinging strikes, which means his success is in part due to deception and not skill.



  3. Kstan on February 17, 2016 at 10:00 am

    Hi Ron … will you be sharing this formula in upcoming chapters?



  4. shandler on February 17, 2016 at 11:49 am

    It’s not a canned formula. It’s an integrated algorithm that incorporates different weights depending upon the player’s historical levels of each stat and number of reps (innings, in this case).



  5. Jay Joyce on February 17, 2016 at 12:43 pm

    Ron,

    I am buying into BABS here, maybe too much. What are your thoughts on the weeks recent happenings. I traded Price and Brantley who I wouldn’t keep for Chris Sale. I also traded Sonny Gray for Carlos Carrasco and have a Stanton and Scherzer deal on the table for my Correa and Arietta. Thoughts?



  6. shandler on February 17, 2016 at 3:55 pm

    Sale is an upgrade over Price, though Brantley is a wild card. Still a deal I would make if I’m playing for 2016. Carrasco for Gray is a strikeout upgrade. The Stanton deal is a potential steal. I think I want to be in your league.



  7. Jay Joyce on February 17, 2016 at 4:15 pm

    Thanks for the reply. I think we get so tied up in keeper value that winning becomes more ancillary. Its more about showcasing who you’ve got in your stable and if you win, then power to you. Its a $1000 buy in too. According to BABS, I am now in good position to start the league up with EE P+, AV, Arenado P+, AV, Betts p, SB, AV, Stanton P+, AV, Scherzer and Sale ER, K+, Marte p, SB, AV, Carrasco ER, KK.

    My next question would be how to rank all the guys with similar BABS ratings of e,k?



  8. shandler on February 17, 2016 at 4:27 pm

    You don’t. They’re all the same. Any attempt to differentiate (aside from considering Liabilities) will lull you into thinking one is better than another. But the range of variability is too wide.



  9. James McKnight on February 21, 2016 at 11:55 am

    Could I use this statement,

    So if you have the choice between a mid-timer like Martinez or McCullers versus a full-timer with lesser skills or more Liabilities, go with the better-skilled mid-timer (who will probably cost less).

    to justify picking Jose Fernandez over Zack Greinke?

    It would be fun to pick Jose Fernandez on draft day, as it seems like the sky (or maybe 180 IP) is the limit with him, but taking that much risk with a top pitching pick seems like it could lead to a disaster.



  10. shandler on February 21, 2016 at 12:07 pm

    Ordinarily yes, but you can’t ignore Fernandez’s liabilities.



  11. buckoneil on February 21, 2016 at 6:57 pm

    For whatever it’s worth (probably not much), in draft prep so far, I’m finding BABS much more helpful for hitting categories than pitching.

    I think this is because I have a harder time at the draft table keeping track of whether or not I’m drafting a well-rounded offense than a good rotation. And because I have to worry about positions on offense. BABS really helps me simplify this.

    Pitching is much more straightforward in that you try to roster the best starters, and then however many closers you’ve budgeted for. That being said, I’m still processing this, so maybe some new enlightenment is pending. And it has made me think about a few guys very differently (i.e. Tyson Ross, Jason Hammel).



  12. Matthew Cederholm on February 25, 2016 at 10:55 am

    Curious why there are only 7 pitchers (and only one starter) with an E+ rating. Are you using similar logic as BA, assuming the numbers are too volatile and inconsistent to grade anyone but the truly elite an E+?



  13. shandler on February 25, 2016 at 2:03 pm

    I didn’t try to force a certain number of players to fit each level, or spread the ratings across the player pool. I simply scaled each skills indicator from top to bottom, and however many players fit in the 10%, 25% and 50% tiers, that’s what grades I assigned.



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