RSOB Chapter 6E: Shortstops
New to “Ron Shandler’s Other Book”? Read the Introduction.
Shortstop is a position with some good upside potential but also a ton of uncertainty. It contains some decent power contributors at the top, though the bigger names are risky. After that, there is a large group of low-risk speedsters; this is a good spot to stock up on SBs. The talent thins out quickly after that.
One thing about the shortstop pool, however, is that it is an extremely healthy group.
| ASSETS | LIABILITIES | |||||||||||||||
| BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | Pk | Rg | Av | Inj | Ex | Nw | Pk | Ag | Rg | |
| Seager,Corey | 6 | LA | F | PW | AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Tulowitzki,Troy | 6 | TOR | F | PW | AV | inj- | Rg | |||||||||
| Correa,Carlos | 6 | HOU | F | p | AV | EX | Rg | |||||||||
| Crawford,Brandon | 6 | SF | F | PW | a | Rg | ||||||||||
| Miller,Bradley | 6o8 | TAM | F | p | s | a | Nw | |||||||||
| Escobar,Eduardo | 6o7 | MIN | F | p | a | |||||||||||
| Peralta,Jhonny | 6 | STL | F | p | a | |||||||||||
| Reyes,Jose | 6 | COL | F | s | AV | inj- | Rg | |||||||||
| Segura,Jean | 6 | ARI | F | SB | a | |||||||||||
| Escobar,Alcides | 6 | KC | F | SB | a | Rg | ||||||||||
| Marte,Ketel | 6 | SEA | F | SB | a | EX | ||||||||||
| Simmons,Andrelton | 6 | LAA | F | AV | Nw | |||||||||||
| Desmond,Ian | 6 | FAN | F | p | s | |||||||||||
| Andrus,Elvis | 6 | TEX | F | s | a | |||||||||||
| Hechavarria,Adeiny | 6 | MIA | F | s | a | |||||||||||
| Lindor,Francisco | 6 | CLE | F | s | a | EX | ||||||||||
| Kang,Jung-ho | 56 | PIT | M | p | AV | INJ | e | |||||||||
| Cabrera,Asdrubal | 6 | NYM | F | p | Nw | |||||||||||
| Russell,Addison | 46 | CHC | F | p | e | |||||||||||
| Gregorius,Didi | 6 | NYY | F | a | ||||||||||||
| Mercer,Jordy | 6 | PIT | F | a | ||||||||||||
| Ramirez,Alexei | 6 | SD | F | a | ||||||||||||
| Aybar,Erick | 6 | ATL | F | a | Nw | |||||||||||
| Castro,Starlin | 64 | NYY | F | a | Nw | |||||||||||
| Bogaerts,Xander | 6 | BOS | F | a | Rg | |||||||||||
| Iglesias,Jose | 6 | DET | F | a | e | |||||||||||
| Cozart,Zack | 6 | CIN | F | a | INJ | |||||||||||
| Semien,Marcus | 6 | OAK | F | s | e | |||||||||||
| Galvis,Freddy | 6 | PHI | F | s | -AV | |||||||||||
| Arcia,Orlando | 6 | MIL | M | SB | a | e | ||||||||||
| Suarez,Eugenio | 6 | CIN | F | e | ||||||||||||
| Ramirez,Jose | 64 | CLE | M | s | a | e | ||||||||||
| Gyorko,Jedd | 46 | STL | M | p | Nw | |||||||||||
| Gonzalez,Marwin | 365 | HOU | M | a | ||||||||||||
| Flores,Wilmer | 64 | NYM | M | a | e | |||||||||||
| Story,Trevor | 6 | COL | P | P+ | s | -AV | EX | |||||||||
| Santana,Daniel | 6 | MIN | M | SB | e | |||||||||||
| Villar,Jonathan | 6 | MIL | M | SB | -AV | e | Nw | |||||||||
| Owings,Christopher | 46 | ARI | M | s | e | |||||||||||
| Rollins,Jimmy | 6 | FAN | M | s | Ag | |||||||||||
| Ahmed,Nick | 6 | ARI | M | e | ||||||||||||
| Goins,Ryan | 46 | TOR | M | e | ||||||||||||
| Anderson,Tim | 6 | CHW | P | S+ | EX | |||||||||||
| Hardy,J.J. | 6 | BAL | M | -AV | inj- | |||||||||||
| Hanson,Alen | 6 | PIT | P | S+ | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Taylor,Chris | 6 | SEA | P | p | s | -AV | EX | |||||||||
| Nunez,Eduardo | 6 | MIN | P | s | a | |||||||||||
| Adames,Cristhian | 6 | COL | P | a | EX | |||||||||||
| Colon,Christian | 6 | KC | P | a | EX | |||||||||||
| Rojas,Miguel | 6 | MIA | P | a | EX | |||||||||||
| Tejada,Ruben | 6 | NYM | P | a | INJ | |||||||||||
| Lee,Hak-Ju | 6 | SF | P | SB | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Mondesi,Raul | 6 | KC | P | SB | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Crawford,J.P. | 6 | PHI | P | s | EX | |||||||||||
| Amarista,Alexi | 6 | SD | P | s | -AV | |||||||||||
| Beckham,Tim | 46 | TAM | P | s | inj- | EX | ||||||||||
| Florimon Jr.,Pedro | 6 | PIT | P | s | -AV | e | ||||||||||
| Romine,Andrew | 56 | DET | P | s | -AV | e | ||||||||||
| Adrianza,Ehire | 46 | SF | P | s | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Kazmar,Sean | 6 | FAN | P | s | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
| Nunez,Gustavo | 6 | DET | P | s | -AV | EX | ||||||||||
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Average), Pk (Ballpark), Rg (Regression). LIABILITIES: Av (Average), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience), Nw (New team), Pk (Ballpark), Ag (Age), Rg (Regression)
As of this writing, Carlos Correa’s ADP in the NFBC is #6, and he has been drafted as high as #4. This is a player with a grand total of 429 plate appearances of MLB experience. Yes, there is some solid skill here, but his comps for (p,AV) look more like Robinson Cano and Hunter Pence than Josh Donaldson and Nolan Arenado. Admittedly, Manny Machado also grades out as (p,AV), but that’s based on an expected regression.
Why does Correa rate out so “low”? His strong ground ball tendency puts his power output at risk and his early SB output was driven more by opportunity than skill.
The fact is, Corey Seager’s skill set actually rates out higher. But there is one key indicator that puts all of this in perspective: that big “EX” on the Liabilities side. All the fascination and skepticism with these young players could disappear with more playing time to validate their tremendous potential. But until then, “EX” has to be taken seriously; it says: “the variability around their projections is going to be HUGE.”
But Correa’s consistently high ADP persists. I thought, maybe it’s me that’s crazy. So I turned it over to the Tout Wars experts for their input. I polled them with this question:
If you could draft Carlos Correa at the spot where you think he will earn PAR VALUE (not necessarily where you’d need to draft him to get him), where would that be?
Top 10 23% 11-15 35% 16-20 23% 21-30 19% Outside top 30 0%
Mean ADP = #14
But Correa is not going at #14. That’s because those convinced that he’s the real deal know that he won’t be coming back to them if they pass him up.
I ranked him in the 21-30 group, and frankly, it would not surprise me a bit if he finished outside the top 30. It’s not that I fight against Trout Inflation (the tendency for rookies to go for exorbitant draft prices following a year when there was a very good rookie crop) with the same vigor that I fight against small sample sizes and recency bias.
Well, um… okay, that is exactly what I am doing. Because Trout Inflation is actually driven by small sample sizes and recency bias.
But mark my word: one day I will be right.
As for the rest of the shortstop pool, there are many nice multi-player pockets.
Most all of the power sources at the top have some risk associated with them, but Brandon Crawford (PW,a | Rg) is interesting so long as you accept the regression risk. A healthy Jung-Ho Kang (p,AV | INJ,e) would have lots of upside.
Bradley Miller (ADP #277), Eduardo Escobar (#367) and Jhonny Peralta (#237) are all similarly skilled, low risk options. Miller adds a little speed. Miller and Escobar add outfield eligibility. Jean Segura (#196), Alcides Escobar (#278) and Ketel Marte (#222) all provide more speed. The ADPs of these two trios show how similar skills profiles are being drafted so differently. The two Escobars look like the profit opportunities in these groups.
There is a large 8-man pocket of moderate batting average help (a) – and no other Asset – at the bottom of the full-timers list. Similar to 2B, if you have to reach this point, it’s best to stay with the low-risk options. Thankfully, most are pretty safe.
Ron,
By your BABS assessment, you have me thinking about possibly selling on Correa. I think this could be suicide in my league. I do, however, have Tulo, Crawford and Kang. My riches in SS allow me to possibly consider this. I think I could land a kings ransom for Correa. Do you have any targets that you think would be viable trade chips for Correa? Or should I just stop talking insanity? Wondering if I could get a Harper, Seager package, Trout, or maybe Goldy. Eligibility in my league is everything and Correa has all of it.
You have Tulo, Crawford and Kang?? If you can flip Correa for any of those players you mention, you need to stop reading this RIGHT NOW and do it!!
Sure do. But as I have mentioned in the past its about value on our keeper scale. Correa can be kept for 4 years until he meets an ultimatum. He can essentially be kept forever. If you see my embarrassment of riches at SS as a strong suit, who do you recommend I keep. As of now, Kang and Crawford were on my chopping block. Should I reassess?
Crawford hit a skills-supported 21 HRs last year; no speed, but could well top out as a .260ish hitter. A healthy Kang could do likewise, plus add 20-30 pts of BA. Aside from more steals, do you really think are going to get much more out of Correa? Keeper value is nice, but are you playing for 2016 or 2020? If 2016 is going to be a rebuilding year, then I’d say keep Correa, but if you are playing for 2016 and can flip Correa for a monster bat, that’s a no-brainer in my book.
Best response yet. Much appreciated. Also left a comment on the 1B chapter in regards to Hosmer.
Playing Keeper League Scoresheet. I have Addison Russell and JavierBaez as keepers. Baez position?
Thoughts on Russell. I think Gyorko will have regression(Lord Zola definition) with the Cardinals. I am considering targeting Gyorko as a backup IF.
Russell is a future stud. Baez will be a highly speculative commodity until he figures out the strike zone – some players never do – and even if he does, might never hit more than .250 (think: Chris Carter). Gyorko could do well in St. Louis.
Lot’s of love for Brad Miller and Eduardo! Miller had decent numbers last year do you see him progressing more this, year. Last year I got A Escobar for $7 and Peralta for $8. I’m guessing I could get Escobar or Miller for even less than that this year. Might sounds like a dumb question but would you be happy with Miller at SS and Eduardo or Alcedes Escobar at MI?
Excuse the grammar in the last comment it’s too early for this! LOL
Can’t answer that in a vacuum. If those players fit the overall construction of your roster, then they are perfectly fine.
That makes sense. I think I have a pretty good grasp on what your saying in this book. Sometimes I just get overly excited to talk certain players and what you think and what I think and what this site said lol. I need to get that under control! LOL
I noticed in the more recent excel sheet that you list Tulo with a regression as a liability. Can you provide more insight into that? He didn’t put up huge numbers last year …
As noted in Chapter 4, “I also use this code (Rg) for players whose track record has been historically volatile, at least from the perspective of their surface stats.”
Hi Ron,
I noticed there are no WAS SS listed in this list. I’m not sure if that was an oversight, or because they all qualified at other positions so you left them there. I’m sure I could cut and paste into my spreadsheet, but just an FYI in case it may have been by accident.
Danny Espinosa and Trea Turner are currently in line at SS right now, but both only qualify at 2B to begin the season.
Ok, our league makes someone designated to start the season at a position eligible at that position so I will make the change on my spreadsheet. Thanks Ron.