RSOB Chapter 6D: Secondbasemen

February 8, 2016

New to “Ron Shandler’s Other Book”? Read the Introduction. 

Second base is a fairly shallow position when it comes to counting stats. The full-timers are a haven for batting average with a few nice pockets of steals. There is a smattering of moderate power sources but most come with downside elsewhere. It’s best to chase power at other positions and make sure you get solid BA and perhaps some speed here.

There are maybe 10 full-time 2Bmen that are safe bets for low-risk productivity. You should try all you can to grab one of these options because there are Liability land mines outside this group. There are a half dozen (AV) full-timers that all have some injury concerns, plus a few more with lesser skills. Tread carefully.

ASSETS LIABILITIES
BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av Pk Rg Av Inj Ex Nw Pk Ag Rg
Gordon,Dee 4 MIA F S+ AV
Cano,Robinson 4 SEA F p AV
Altuve,Jose 4 HOU F SB AV Rg
LeMahieu,DJ 4 COL F SB AV Rg
Walker,Neil 4 NYM F p a Nw
Rendon,Anthony 45 WAS F p a INJ
Hernandez,Cesar 4 PHI F SB a e
Spangenberg,Cory 4 SD F SB a inj- EX
Kinsler,Ian 4 DET F AV
Murphy,Daniel 45 WAS F AV Nw
Harrison,Josh 54o PIT F AV inj-
Kendrick,Howie 4 LA F AV inj-
Zobrist,Ben 4o7 CHC F AV inj- Nw
Kipnis,Jason 4 CLE F AV inj- Rg
Panik,Joe 4 SF F AV inj- e
Pedroia,Dustin 4 BOS F AV INJ
Schoop,Jonathan 4 BAL F PW inj- e
Travis,Devon 4 TOR M p AV INJ EX
Dozier,Brian 4 MIN F p
Lawrie,Brett 54 CHW F p inj- Nw
Phillips,Brandon 4 CIN F a Rg
Odor,Rougned 4 TEX F a e
Peraza,Jose 4 CIN M S+ a EX
Hernandez,Enrique o4 LA M p a EX
Turner,Trea 4 WAS M SB a EX
Forsythe,Logan 43 TAM F Rg
Peterson,Jace 4 ATL F -AV e
Holt,Brock 4o59 BOS M s a
Wong,Kolten 4 STL M s a
Espinosa,Danny 4 WAS M p -AV
Baez,Javier 4 CHC M p -AV EX
Gennett,Scooter 4 MIL M a
Giavotella,Johnny 4 LAA M a e
Utley,Chase 4 LA P p s a inj- Ag
La Stella,Tommy 4 CHC P AV inj- EX
Infante,Omar 4 KC M
Drew,Stephen 4 WAS M -AV Nw
Franklin,Nick 4 TAM P PW -AV inj- e
Uggla,Dan 4 FAN P PW -AV inj- Ag
Tomlinson,Kelby 4 SF P s a EX
Hill,Aaron 45 MIL P p
Herrera,Dilson 4 NYM P p EX
Flaherty,Ryan 4 BAL P p -AV
Johnson,Kelly o743 ATL P p -AV Nw
Field,Tommy 4 DET P p -AV EX
Walsh,Colin 4 MIL P p -AV EX
Blanco,Andres 54 PHI P a
Castro,Daniel 4 ATL P a EX
Refsnyder,Rob 4 NYY P a EX
Pirela,Jose 4 SD P a EX Nw
Izturis,Maicer 4 TOR P a INJ
Gosselin,Phil 4 ARI P a INJ EX
Difo,Wilmer 4 WAS P SB EX
Weeks,Jemile 4 SD P SB -AV
Alberto,Hanser 4 TEX P s EX
Wendle,Joe 4 OAK P s EX
Sardinas,Luis 4 SEA P s EX Nw Pk
Bonifacio,Emilio 4 ATL P s -AV inj- Nw
Alcantara,Arismendy 4 CHC P s -AV EX

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Average), Pk (Ballpark), Rg (Regression). LIABILITIES: Av (Average), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience), Nw (New team), Pk (Ballpark), Ag (Age), Rg (Regression)

In most drafts, there are three names that bubble to the top – Jose Altuve (pictured), Dee Gordon and Robinson Cano – usually in that order. BABS agrees on the names but disagrees a bit on the order.

BABS does not see Altuve’s 2015 power surge as sustainable; his support metrics hardly budged from previous years. His stolen base output already regressed from 2014 and those speed skills continue to rate out behind that of Gordon. BABS sees Altuve as third best of the trio.

Meanwhile, Gordon’s speed skill and stolen base output are extreme. He single-handedly allows you to wait on late speed in the draft. There are not many players who offer this level of roster flexibility; a few closers, perhaps the bangers at the top of the ADPs. For that reason, his ranking at the top of this list is justifiable.

BABS offers up a fourth option at the top: DJ LeMahieu. His (SB,AV | Rg) rating is identical to that of Altuve. In fact, his raw speed grades out higher; the difference being in the brightness of their respective green lights. There are going to be limited opportunities to grab one of the top three 2Bmen, but LeMahieu’s #141 ADP sure looks like a potential profit opportunity.

From Ian Kinsler down to Dustin Pedroia on this list are eight 2Bmen who are, for all intents and purposes, similarly skilled (AV). Below average power and speed, moderately helpful batting average. What that means is that you are not likely going to get more than 15 HRs or 15 SBs from any of them, and any attempt to separate them with more precision will run afoul of the random winds of statistical variability. Six of the eight names also have some injury risk attached to them, which further muddies the waters.

With such minimal skill in that bucket, why take on excess risk? My approach with such a thin position is to play it safe. I’ll shoot for one of the four names at the top, but if I fail at rostering one of them, I’ll target a lesser name in a later round/lesser cost with a minimal Liability profile. Kinsler, Daniel Murphy, Brian Dozier, Brandon Phillips and maybe Rougned Odor would be my prime targets.

If those slip by, I would look at some of the high-skilled mid-timers as a fallback. If you’re willing to take on the added Experience risk, Jose Peraza, Enrique Hernandez and Trea Turner are the best profit opportunities.

 

 

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9 Comments

  1. DENNIS RUPP on February 8, 2016 at 9:00 am

    HI Ron, Very interesting, but I’m a numbers guy and I thought it would be great if your Assets & Liabilities could be Valued for each player to compute a Net Value! Here is what I came up with. Ron, if you like the concept, you could revise the “weighting” of my values to Net to a better Value. Assets: PT: F =2, M =1, P =0 /
    Pw: P+ =4, PW =3, p =2 / Sp: S+ =5, SP =3, s =2 / Av: AV =3, a =2 / Pk =1 /Rg =1
    Liabilities: -Av =-2 / Inj: inj- =-1, INJ =-2 / Ex: e =-1, E =-2 / Nw =-1 / Pk =-1 /
    Ag =-2 / Rg = -1. After I copied & pasted these “Codes” into Excel, I added 3 columns to the far right and totaled up the Assets, Liabilities (as Neg Vales) and the Net Value. Thus, each player now has 3 Values with the net the Overall Value! Using the top 35 players at each position, the Net Overall Values ranged from 9 for the Stars to 1 for lowest ranked players. Ron, What do you think of this idea? I welcome your changes to make it more accurate & your thoughts. Thanks!



  2. shandler on February 8, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    I do use a rough formula to assign +/- points to each asset and liability for ranking purposes. However, it is more art than science and I do a good amount of tweaking so it’s not something I’d be comfortable publishing. Yet.



  3. James McKnight on February 9, 2016 at 8:32 am

    A thought for a possible addition another day might be “+/-” on the playing time. For instance, Pedroia might be F- as he’s a full-time player with some risk of losing at-bats to Moncada. Infante might be M+ due to a story where the Royals said that his performance last year was an anomaly (and maybe from playing hurt) and he’ll get another chance to play full time and see if he hits better this time around. I don’t know if this flexibility helps or just confuses things further, but it’s an option.

    Thanks again for the good work and new approach. There were always some players that I trusted more than others. Maybe this will help quantify that feeling, and possibly even show where that feeling is justified and where it is not.



  4. shandler on February 9, 2016 at 10:04 am

    There will always be opportunities to add precision to the process, but I don’t know how helpful that will be. The risks and speculations you note are merely NOW statements. The Royals quote is just noise, really. I do think these things just serve to confuse the process.



  5. charlie wiegert on February 20, 2016 at 6:59 pm

    Did you mean Cesar Hernandez instead of Enrique Hernandez as a high-skilled mid-timer as a fallback?



  6. shandler on February 21, 2016 at 12:11 am

    We have Cesar Hernandez as a full-timer, not mid-timer.



  7. Brandon Kratofil on February 22, 2016 at 10:16 pm

    This is interesting, many have Jason Kipnis as a top 2b option, yet according to this he is simply a warm body that won’t kill you anywhere, but not necessarily worth being a top 10 2B.



  8. Jonathan Beyer on March 31, 2016 at 11:44 am

    I’m a little surprised to see Cano ranked ahead of Altuve and LeMahieu based on BABS. While all three are roughly equivalent in terms of hit tool, and all boast one other asset, both Altuve and LeMahieu rate as having a significant SB impact vs. just a moderate power impact for Cano. The assumption then is that power is a more important asset than speed such that p outweighs SB. Obviously this could change based on roster needs, but in a vacuum is this a fair conclusion based on how you have ranked these players?



  9. shandler on April 1, 2016 at 12:40 pm

    Yes, power has more of an impact in that it also drives runs and RBIs more than speed does.