When BABS takes a back seat

by Chris Doyle

In-season roster management in fantasy baseball is full of challenges. Cutting bait too early can sometimes prove traumatic, but holding on too long could mean a missed opportunity to land a big fish on the waiver wire.

Where it gets especially tricky is on the trade front. As a manager, you have control when adding and dropping players but when trading, all bets are off. Managers tend to overvalue their players or worse, become attached and refuse to deal, leaving you in a helpless position.

Of course, the big question is whether you even need to make a move in the first place. And on top of that, how do you incorporate BABS into the equation to ensure your roster stays balanced?

The first one is usually easy to answer. If you’re trailing the pack in home runs you need to find a way to add power. If you’ve got a surplus in another area, bonus – you’ve just found a means to deal.

Keeping BABS happy is another story, and you might be surprised to hear that for as much talking as we do around here about her advantages, there comes a time when she may need to take a back seat.

To illustrate, I present to you a “real life” scenario.

It’s year three of a 10-team dynasty league and I’m within striking distance of the leader. Coming off a championship in 2017, I’m poised to make it two straight titles. And the future is bright.

Ronald Acuna, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Jo Adell. All top dynasty league prospects, you say – and you’d be right.

And they’re all in my possession.

One of the positions on my roster that could use an upgrade is shortstop. I’ve been trotting out a contingent of Brandon Crawford, Paul DeJong, Jorge Polanco and Jose Peraza but in a league that sets lineups weekly, all these options have their warts.

There’s a SS-eligible star on the market in Manny Machado who would be a considerable upgrade, and I have the assets to go get him without subtracting much from my major league roster.

So, I check in with BABS’ latest update and notice the following:

Brandon Crawford                  (p,A+)

Manny Machado                      (p,AV)

If that’s not cause to do a double-take, I don’t know what is. Sure, Crawford is having a fine season, earning the nod as the National League’s starting shortstop at the All-Star game, but Machado’s first half has been elite: a .315 average, .963 OPS and 24 homers while striking out a career best 12.3% of the time.

However, if I stuck strictly to BABS’ most recent ratings, it would seem like a waste to give up valuable young chips for a player who she sees as a downgrade skills-wise.

What’s important to remember is that BABS’s current ratings are only part of the equation.

BABS is great at evaluating the underlying skill of full-season performance, but a seer she is not. Sure, it’s never nice to appear to downgrade in an asset category, but there are more variables at play.

Crawford is enjoying a fantastic season, no doubt, but there’s a reason his rating coming into the season was an underwhelming (a). His historical data shows nowhere near the levels of production Machado has displayed. Machado, meanwhile, has been riding a fine line between his current (p,AV) and the (PW,AV) rating he owned for several seasons prior to his “off” 2017. The phenomenal 50 ABs he’s posted so far in July have surely pushed him up a notch.

(How you feel about him moving from Camden Yards to Dodger Stadium is a totally different story, but at least he inherits a much more talented offensive lineup.)

The case for acquiring a player like Machado is made stronger when you have assets to use that don’t adversely affect your current roster, too. How many top prospects don’t live up to the hype? As Ron reminded me in an email about this very subject, “Flags Fly Forever.” You get your chance to win and you take it, and you don’t look back. If that means sacrificing some talent that’s not helping you now, then so be it. Once you win a championship, nobody can take that away from you.

All this is to say that staying too close to BABS can potentially be a shortsighted stance. Take the time to assess your roster holistically and use all the information you can. This should give you the best chance at hoisting that trophy.