Things we can count on after one week

This week’s ESPN Insider column, appearing every Friday.

This is the week for eternal optimism. Clayton Kershaw and Bryce Harper look vintage. Greg Holland and Jeanmar Gomez really did get saves. Khris Davis’ owners are downright giddy over their eighth round bargain.

Everyone is still in or near first place. With draft day still fresh in our memory, our title hopes remain in full view. But all is not home runs and Yoo Hoo showers in fantasy land.

If recent history is any indication, there are some dark clouds you can count on over the next six months. This game is all about percentage plays and the odds are high that the following will come to pass in 2017:

 At least one of your top four/most expensive players is going to be a bust.

Over the past 13 years, only 35 percent of the players predicted to finish in the Top 15 actually ended up finishing there. In fact, only about half of the players picked in the first round will earn as high as second round value. That’s why I’ve always advised against taking unnecessary risks in the early-going.

Last year, those busts included names like Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa and Giancarlo Stanton. Maybe we could not have foreseen Harper, but Correa was a clear overdraft and Stanton was a perennial injury risk. This year, players like Trea Turner (unproven), Jonathan Villar (no track record) and Chris Sale (transition) could be risky picks. Even a well-established player like Paul Goldschmidt could have some downside (will new manager Torey Lovullo let him run?).

You could have mitigated some of this risk at the draft table by filling your reserve list with logical backups. But it’s never too late; in most leagues, the free agent pool is stocked full of possibilities.

About half your roster is going to end up on the shelf.

 I wrote about this last week. In 2016, 141 of the top-ranked 300 players (47 percent) fell victim to the disabled list, the minor leagues, suspension or were released outright. According to the Baseball Forecaster, that percentage has varied between 45 percent and 53 percent since 2009.

We’ve already gotten a head start on 2017. On Opening Day, nearly two dozen of the top 300 players (about 8 percent) are already missing from their team’s active roster. These are due to injuries (Ian Desmond, David Price, et al), demotions (Julio Urias, Yoan Moncada) and other external factors (Jeurys Familia, Jung-ho Kang).

As good a job as you think you did at the draft, your title hopes are going to come down to roster management. Trades, plumbing the free agent pool and maximizing your roster spots have now become just as important as picking a healthy Ian Kinsler over a hobbling Jason Kipnis.

You paid way too much for that hot-shot prospect.

Every year, we covet the rising stars but their track record of instant success is, at best, mixed. For every Kris Bryant that hits the ground running, there are many more Gregory Polancos and Byron Buxtons who take some time to make their mark, and even more Juricksen Profars and Archie Bradleys who might never amount to anything.

Last year’s hot prospects drafted in the top 300 included Byung Ho Park, Rusney Castillo, Tyler Glasnow, Jose Berrios and A.J. Reed. This year’s crop of highly drafted, yet unproven players includes Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, Gregory Bird, Jharel Cotton, Hunter Renfroe, Manny Margot, Yulieski Gurriel, Orlando Arcia and Austin Hedges.

None of these players has more than 201 at-bats or 30 innings of Major League experience, yet we felt highly enough about their potential to draft them onto our teams. Look at that list of nine players again; expect about half of them to disappoint. Optimism is a good thing, but make sure you have some contingency plans.

A draft pick after the 20^th round will determine your league’s winner.

It happens every year. In 2016, these were some of the players who were drafted after pick No. 300 (in ascending ADP order): Trea Turner, Chris Carter, Jonathan Villar, Rick Porcello, J.A. Happ, Rajai Davis, Jake Lamb, Didi Gregorius and Alex Colome. That list just gets us to pick No. 400. It doesn’t include players like Aledmys Diaz (No. 640), Michael Fulmer (No. 643) or Jeanmar Gomez (No. 1,045)

So who will it be in 2017? Scanning the board outside the top 300, I might pick out names like Chris Carter (again), Alex Gordon, Michael Conforto, Ben Revere, Lucas Duda, Jose Berrios, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Byung Ho Park. All of these players have at least some Major League experience but have unfairly fallen off the radar of mixed leaguers, mostly due to recency bias.

If any of these players are still in your free agent pool, they might be worth a speculation. After all, your first round Trea Turner is not likely going to turn a profit based on where you selected him. And profit is what wins leagues.

This weekend, someone is going to pay too much for a free agent who is having a great first week.

Who might it be? Will it be Chase Headley? How about Mark Reynolds? Scooter Gennett? Wilmer Flores and Joey Gallo each have a stolen base! Scott Feldman has six strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings! Kendall Graveman has as many strikeouts as Noah Syndergaard – is he worth a shot?

No. Just no.

But someone is going to look back at the first week and overspend. Someone is going to forget about the iconic 3-home run Opening Day that Tuffy Rhodes (pictured) had in 1994; he finished the season with eight. Someone is going to forget that Emilio Bonifacio went 14 for 28 during the first week of 2009; he finished batting .252… and then he did the exact same thing during the first week of 2014, finishing at .259.

Grabbing players like these after one week is a recipe for disaster, unless you are in a league that has “hindsight” as a Rotisserie category.