The skewed value of sophomores
This year, members have access to all the columns I write for ESPN Insider. They appear here every Thursday or Friday. Many will include a BABS-relevant postscript. Enjoy.
Trea Turner posted an amazing set of numbers in just 307 at-bats last summer. He is being selected in the first round of most drafts, usually ahead of the still-elite future Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cabrera.
Gary Sanchez posted an amazing set of numbers in just 201 at-bats last summer. He is being selected as the second best catcher in all of baseball, behind only Buster Posey.
Seung-Hwan Oh saved 19 games with a 2.15 ERA during the second half of last year. He is being selected ahead of Craig Kimbrel, who has averaged over 40 saves per season for six years.
Besides being drafted far ahead of what logic would dictate, there is one other thing these players have in common. They are all sophomores, going into their second full season in the majors.
Sophomores are a difficult group to evaluate. They have provided us only a single data point of performance to consider. That’s a sample size of one. We would never project any other players based on one season of Major League statistics, yet that’s all we have with sophomores, and it’s often not even one full season.
What makes it worse is if that single data point is an outlier. Turner never hit more than eight home runs in any minor league season. The 13 bombs he hit in his short MLB stint now has projections engines spitting out expectations that push him towards 20 in 2017.
That starts looking like funny number games. If we pro-rate Turner’s 2016 line to a full season, he’d have 23 HR, 59 SB and a .342 batting average. Are we really ready to dub him the next generational player, a la Mike Trout?
As it turns out, that is exactly what we did a year ago with Carlos Correa. Our inflated expectations pushed that sophomore to the No. 6 player off the draft board. Correa finished at No. 72. You’d think we would learn from experience.
But these small samples completely skew our perception of a player’s true value. Combine that with recency bias, and drafters are completely pulled into the sophomore’s skewed reality.
They see Oh’s superior numbers over three months that overshadow Kimbrel’s slightly off year. They are more than willing to dub Sanchez as the savior of a tepid catcher pool, despite him hitting just .222 over the final month, oddly enough.
A longer-scan view would correct this, but there is nothing to view. Incorporating minor league numbers would help, but they only serve to further discount these players’ rankings.
The best you can do is review each player’s individual situation and then decide for yourself.
Turner, Sanchez and Oh – great players, perhaps future stars, but not likely to be statistical leaders in 2017. My own prudent expectation sees Turner putting up a 12-35-.280 line, which is perhaps second or third round-worthy, at best. Sanchez might hit 30 homers, but 25 would be more likely, and he could bat as low as .250-.260. Think, Brian McCann. And Oh could be a solid closer, with 30-35 saves and a mid-2.00s ERA. But you could project that line for any dozen other frontline closers.
There are many other sophomores who bear mentioning.
Nomar Mazara and Tyler Naquin both started out hot and faded down the stretch. Mazara was the more highly rated prospect but Naquin ended up looking better by season’s end. Mazara’s ADP is currently No. 201; Naquin is No. 312. How much does a slightly clearer path to playing time outweigh better recent performance?
Alex Bregman is going No. 91 off his 8-HR, .264 performance in 201 AB last year. A top-rated prospect, this 23-year-old is ranked ahead of established veterans who are projected for similar numbers, like Evan Longoria (No. 106) and Troy Tulowitzki (No. 157).
As older sophomores, Adam Duvall and Aledmys Diaz might be expected to regress in 2017. They are going just three spots apart – Nos. 150 and 153, respectively. Are they actually better than established veterans who are being drafted later, like Kendrys Morales (165), Adrian Gonzalez (166) or even Mike Napoli (217)?
Surface stats often obscure the true skill underneath. Michael Fulmer’s 11-win, 3.06 line was elevated by a high strand rate and low BABIP, and supported by a soft strikeout rate. His xFIP was only 3.95. Still, he is being drafted ahead of a more established starter in Dallas Keuchel, whose skill and track record belies last year’s poor outlying surface stats.
Max Kepler might avoid sophomore misperception due to having experienced the equivalent of three seasons of development during 2016. He went from MLB struggles to minor league adjustment to MLB success in six short months. At No. 237, the market is taking a cautious approach with him this spring.
This sophomore problem works in reverse as well.
One year ago, we were all champing at the bit, waiting for the Minnesota Twins to realize that their pitching staff was a mess. We were tucking away phenom Jose Berrios in anticipation of a quick call-up. That eventually did happen, but Berrios crashed and burned.
Today, Berrios has an ADP pushing 400. Has he completely lost his skill from one year ago? Not likely.
But where we end up being pulled in by the allure of the sophomore overachievers, we could be missing out on other opportunities. Those sophomores who struggle upon first call-up, or even slightly underperform expectation, present us with potential profit. Just follow the skill; the marketplace seems to be setting an alluring discount.
BABScape: It is an interesting BABS scan to look at this isolated group of players. Here are the sophomores mentioned above, plus a bunch more second-year players.
| ASSETS | LIAB | |||||||||||
| BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | Av | Inj | Ex | |||
| ADP | R$ | PITCHER | Pos | Tm | PT | Er | K | Sv | Er | Inj | Ex | |
| 10 | $35 | Turner,Trea | o84 | WAS | F | p | SB | AV | EX | |||
| 92 | $13 | Dahl,David | o7 | COL | F | p | SB | AV | EX | |||
| 132 | $10 | Peraza,Jose | 6o | CIN | F | S+ | AV | – | EX | |||
| 20 | $28 | Seager,Corey | 6 | LA | F | PW | AV | e | ||||
| 92 | $13 | Contreras,Willson | 2o7 | CHC | F | PW | AV | EX | ||||
| 50 | $19 | Sanchez,Gary | 2 | NYY | F | P+ | a | EX | ||||
| 164 | $8 | Anderson,Tim | 6 | CHW | F | S+ | a | – | EX | |||
| 164 | $8 | Urias,Julio | SP | LA | M | ER | KK | EX | ||||
| 75 | $15 | Oh,Seung-Hwan | rp | STL | ER | K+ | SV | e | ||||
| 81 | $15 | Diaz,Edwin | rp | SEA | ER | K+ | SV | EX | ||||
| 101 | $13 | Maeda,Kenta | SP | LA | F | e | KK | e | ||||
| 93 | $13 | Bregman,Alex | 5 | HOU | F | p | a | EX | ||||
| 150 | $9 | Diaz,Aledmys | 6 | STL | F | p | a | inj- | e | |||
| 235 | $4 | Kepler,Max | o9 | MIN | F | p | a | e | ||||
| 147 | $9 | Buxton,Byron | 8o | MIN | F | p | S+ | AV | e | |||
| 167 | $8 | Matz,Steven | SP | NYM | M | ER | k | INJ | e | |||
| 363 | $0 | Devenski,Chris | SP | HOU | M | e | KK | e | ||||
| 260 | $3 | Arcia,Orlando | 6 | MIL | F | SB | a | EX | ||||
| 140 | $9 | Fulmer,Michael | SP | DET | F | e | k | e | ||||
| 231 | $4 | Neris,Hector | rp | PHI | ER | K+ | sv- | e | ||||
| 272 | $3 | Gurriel,Yulieski | 5 | HOU | F | AV | EX | |||||
| 172 | $7 | Manaea,Sean | SP | OAK | M | e | k | e | ||||
| 233 | $4 | Snell,Blake | SP | TAM | M | KK | EX | |||||
| 135 | $10 | Benintendi,And | o7 | BOS | M | p | AV | inj- | EX | |||
| 205 | $6 | Mazara,Nomar | o97 | TEX | F | a | e | |||||
| 316 | $1 | Naquin,Tyler | o8 | CLE | M | PW | a | EX | ||||
| 183 | $7 | Gray,Jonathan | SP | COL | F | k | inj- | e | ||||
| 150 | $9 | Taillon,Jameson | SP | PIT | M | e | inj- | EX | ||||
| 365 | $(0) | Anderson,Tyler | SP | COL | M | e | inj- | EX | ||||
| 257 | $3 | Cotton,Jharel | SP | OAK | M | k | EX | |||||
| 274 | $3 | Bundy,Dylan | SP | BAL | M | k | inj- | EX | ||||
| 276 | $3 | Guerra,Junior | SP | MIL | M | k | inj- | e | ||||
| 387 | $(1) | Mondesi,Raul | 4 | KC | M | p | S+ | AV | EX | |||
| 352 | $0 | Barraclough,Kyle | rp | MIA | ER | K+ | e | |||||
| 299 | $2 | Davies,Zachary | SP | MIL | M | e | ||||||
| 324 | $1 | Musgrove,Joe | SP | HOU | M | EX | ||||||
| 374 | $(0) | Berrios,Jose | SP | MIN | M | -ER | EX | |||||
Note that the ADP ranks from this chart may be different from the article; it’s a timing thing.
Lots and lots of talent here, but as the Experience liability column shows, none of it can be officially baked in as real and reliable. That’s the takeaway. It’s entirely possible that the Asset grades for this entire group will look different at this time next year.
I have a draft tomorrow (March 11). Where can I find the latest BABS info?
On the right side of the page under the heading “Members Only” select the “Articles, cheat sheets, links” link.
When I look at your “Targets” for AL/NL 12 team under Power, I see a target of 9 players. Does BABS consider PW and p to count as one. I understand that P+ counts as 2. My assumption is that this holds true for all other targets as well.
Every asset rating essentially counts as “1” towards the targets. Each “+” rating allows you to take a blank for one player. If it helps you to think of a “+” as a “2” then I can’t stop you. That’s not how I see it in my head, and BABS hates numbers, but you do what you have to do to understand her.
Hey Ron,
Does that + expunge a liability?
Looking deeper into the .pdf and after conducting a few mock drafts I have some questions. Obviously us in BABSland are risk averse in the first couple rounds. At what point is it OK to accept initial risk? It seems as though I have been drafting very solid teams using BABS, but I also feel that I am taking on a lot of risk (-inj over INJ), but still risk. Another observation too is that acquiring 8 units of speed seems very difficult.
Here are the results of my latest mock. I am trying to get a hang of this thing.
1. Kris Bryant (ChC – 1B,3B,OF)
2. Joey Votto (Cin – 1B)
3. Freddie Freeman (Atl – 1B)
4. Carlos González (Col – OF) auto-drafted bc I was looking at BABS
5. Yoenis Céspedes (NYM – OF)
6. Justin Verlander (Det – SP)
7. Chris Archer (TB – SP)
8. Matt Carpenter (StL – 1B,2B,3B)
9. Billy Hamilton (Cin – OF)
10. Kenta Maeda (LAD – SP)
11. Danny Salazar (Cle – SP)
12. Ken Giles (Hou – RP)
13. Cody Allen (Cle – RP)
14. Jackie Bradley Jr. (Bos – OF)
15. Evan Gattis (Hou – C)
16. Eduardo Núñez (SF – 3B,SS)
17. Dexter Fowler (StL – OF)
18. Brandon Belt (SF – 1B)
19. Michael Pineda (NYY – SP)
20. Chris Devenski (Hou – SP,RP)
21. Robert Gsellman (NYM – SP)
22. Marcus Semien (Oak – SS)
23. Jay Bruce (NYM – OF)
LOL, nice try. Since when would having extra skill erase an injury?
At what point to take on risk? That’s up to your own risk tolerance.
Yes, the speed benchmarks are tough to reach.
Am I incorrect for looking at it like an “A+” does expunge a “-AV” liability?
In an OPS league I looked at “*” and “-” for walks and added them onto the AV total. So: a, AV, and * were “+1”; “-AV” and “-” were -1.
The beauty of this is that there are only a few black and white rules with BABS and tons of gray area to customize for your league. So while Ron doesn’t “look at it” like an A+ canceles a -AV, I can! And I can even add more to it, though I do understand it’s not a numbers thing, it’s just how I conceptualize it.
I’ve now done 2 drafts with BABS and love each team. A NL-only keeper and a mixed-keeper, both 12 teams. I love both of my teams! My advice would be to NOT do this on printouts for auctions. Have your excel up so you can “CTL+F” the guys who are nominated. With all of the players inter mixed you might want to look into color cordnating positions or something along those lines if you want to use a printout of BABS for your auction. For my mixed league I separated hitters, starters and relievers which didn’t really help. I’d strongly recommend using excel. But it was a great experience and I’ll be using BABS going forward!
(On a side note, I’m also going to be creating my own version of BABS for football I liked the system so much!)
Ron
I have a two part question:
1. When it comes to keepers, is it fair to say that BABS is telling us to choose keepers that fall in the 3 green shaded areas since any potential keeper below the green has a random value of $3-$8?
2. If so, does this change, in mono leagues that have 15-17 bench spots i.e should one keep a $7 Wilmer Flores?
Thanks.
Hi Sean, this is BABS. Look, you can do whatever you want but an A+ definitely does not cancel out an -AV! You still have that -AV on your roster, dragging your team down. At best, the A+ beings you back close to par, but all you end up with is an average team. -AV players are roster wreckage. I spit on them.
— Your friend, BABS
P.S. I’m glad you love the teams I helped you build.
1. Potentially, but that’s the short view. When you evaluate keepers, you are looking for players with long-term potential. The current BABS ratings are only looking at 2017. So you probably need to dive a little deeper and ferret some pockets of skill lower on the chart.
2. The only question that is important. If you threw Flores back into the draft pool, could you redraft him for $7 or less? If so, throw him back. If not, keep him.
That was my thinking. Thanks for the clarification.
I appreciate the clarification. To elaborate a bit further and pick your brain, of my 14 hitters in an NL-only league, only 3 slots dont have average assets. So on top of my 11 “a’s” (7a, 3AV, 1A+) I also have 3 *’s. I only had 2 steal assets so with my 13 and 14 (and 15th, for that matter) guys, my last two OF’s I had to target speed. The AV liabilities don’t currently have any PT letter (I have 9 full time guys, one above target). I’m not expecting enough AB’s to really hurt me.
I should be able to find a few guys in the first waiver session that bump Hazelbaker and Pham out of my line-up. I’m certainly not thrilled by them. If you had 2 speed assets and 11 (plus a +) hitting assets, would BABS conclusively say DO NOT roster any AVs even if you have an AV surplus and a void elsewhere?