Searching for asset group values
For the most part, BABS has done well so far this year. It has not been an easy road. The skyrocketing disabled list visits have skewed performance metrics and laid waste to playing time expectations.
For instance, Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard and Yu Darvish all came into the season in the (ER,K+) asset group, but Thor was the only one who didn’t have some injury risk. BABS considered Trea Turner and A.J. Pollock as comparable (p,SB,AV) commodities, but until Pollock can manage to stay on the field, we’ll never know for sure.
Still, there are several deeper asset groups that do show the power of BABS. Take a look at the (PW,a) group from back on draft day:
| ASSETS | LIABILITIES | |||||||||||
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Tm | PT | Pw | SP | Av | Av | Inj | Ex | ||
| 9 | $36 | Harper,Bryce | WAS | F | PW | a | * | inj- | ||||
| 69 | $16 | McCutchen,Andrew | PIT | F | PW | a | * | inj- | ||||
| 97 | $13 | Kemp,Matt | ATL | F | PW | a | ||||||
| 105 | $12 | Longoria,Evan | TAM | F | PW | a | ||||||
| 111 | $12 | Bautista,Jose | TOR | F | PW | a | * | inj- | ||||
| 144 | $9 | Lamb,Jacob | ARI | F | PW | a | ||||||
| 145 | $9 | Bradley,Jackie | BOS | F | PW | a | ||||||
| 161 | $8 | Morales,Kendrys | TOR | F | PW | a | ||||||
| 181 | $7 | Thames,Eric | MIL | F | PW | a | * | e | ||||
| 198 | $6 | Castellanos,Nick | DET | F | PW | a | INJ | |||||
| 203 | $6 | Bruce,Jay | NYM | F | PW | a | ||||||
| 215 | $5 | Joseph,Tommy | PHI | F | PW | a | EX | |||||
| 285 | $2 | Granderson,Curtis | NYM | F | PW | a | * | |||||
| 291 | $2 | Dickerson,Corey | TAM | F | PW | a | inj- | |||||
BABS said that all of these players owned comparable skills – significant power and moderate batting average. You could pay the big bucks for Harper, or you could target some single-digit players and potentially earn more profit on those skills.
As it turned out, this has been a very profitable group as a whole:
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Current |
| 9 | $36 | Harper,Bryce | $38 |
| 69 | $16 | McCutchen,Andrew | $21 |
| 97 | $13 | Kemp,Matt | $12 |
| 105 | $12 | Longoria,Evan | $11 |
| 111 | $12 | Bautista,Jose | $9 |
| 144 | $9 | Lamb,Jacob | $29 |
| 145 | $9 | Bradley,Jackie | $10 |
| 161 | $8 | Morales,Kendrys | $10 |
| 181 | $7 | Thames,Eric | $15 |
| 198 | $6 | Castellanos,Nick | $7 |
| 203 | $6 | Bruce,Jay | $17 |
| 215 | $5 | Joseph,Tommy | $8 |
| 285 | $2 | Granderson,Curtis | $6 |
| 291 | $2 | Dickerson,Corey | $31 |
For the most part, you could not go wrong here. If you opened your wallet for Harper, you’ve gotten full value right now. If you used BABS to target lower priced players, you’re realizing profit, some of it significant. Some of the more profitable players:
Jake Lamb (pictured) may be a surprise given his draft price, but the power skills were already evident last year (P+,a). His current rating (P+,AV) shows growth for a young player, which should not be unexpected.
Jay Bruce’s price was probably depressed given his spotty history, but his current (P+,a) rating is identical to last year. If you look at his stats, it is easy to see that this is, in fact, the same player as 2016, which in retrospect, was probably worth more than $6 on draft day.
Recency bias is what killed Corey Dickerson’s draft price, thanks to a down season on a new team (that’s why BABS considers a New Team as a potential Liability). Maybe his current (PW,A+) rating is a little over his head, however, history shows that he has been a consistent (P+) player and he showed (A+) skills as well, back when he was in Colorado.
In this 14-player asset group, only Kemp and Bautista are in the red, but their losses are minor. Back on draft day, odds were good that you could have saved a bunch of money targeting the potential profit in the lower part of the group.
The BABS database was updated on July 3. The next database update will be on August 7.
Ron, what are your thoughts about Ian Kinsler? I have the opportunity to get Drury, but it wouldn’t make sense with Kinsler still on my roster. Wasn’t expecting a repeat of last year, but this is increasingly worrying.
At 35, it was unreasonable that Kinsler would be able to repeat what he did last year. What he’s doing now, well, he’s done that before, in 2012. A scan of his last 5 or so years shows that 2016 was a clear outlier. Pick any other year, and other than BA, he’s right there. And his BA could still improve, though it’s a different game now. Drury is less established but he’ll probably end up with about the same counting stats, plus maybe 20 points of BA, which is noise.
Forgot to mention that it’s a dynasty league. $1000 salary cap, I have Kinsler at $70. FA Drury is $1. #Profit
Your key numbers for a dynasty league: Kinsler is 35; Drury is 24.
“BABS said that all of these players owned comparable skills” and yet they have Current Value ranging from $6-$38. If comparable skills generate such a wide range of outcomes, how can you say that the results to date confirm the membership of the asset group?
Dollar values are not an accurate measure of skill. For example, Curtis Granderson ($6) currently has a 76% contact rate and 142 power index. Corey Dickerson ($31) has a 78% contact rate and 135 power index. The variance in output often comes down to elements out of their control. In this case, Granderson’s BABIP is around .260; Dickerson’s is around .370. Luckily we have half a season left for their output to start moving towards each other.
Ron,
What do you think about Justin Smoak? I’m hoping he can keep his average up in the second half and continue to hit for power. I’m considering trading Arrieta for him.
Thanks!
Current skills are supportable and the minor leaguer most thought would push him — Rowdy Tellez — has not done well so far. I’d make that trade, though I’m not sure why your trading partner would.
His pitching is really weak and he likes Arrieta – I’ll take it. Thanks for the quick reply!
In a keeper league, couldn’t keep everyone last year. Traded Trumbo, Kinsler, and Pence along with a 4th round pick for Votto and a 6th. Solely on Trumbo never repeating his HR feat and Kinsler being 35… Couldn’t be happier right now.