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By Patrick Cloghessy

When it comes to pitching, we want strikeouts. Lots of them. When it comes to starting pitchers who take the mound every fifth day and stockpile the whiffs, well…we can’t always get what we want.

There are 45 starting pitchers BABS tabs as full-timers. In a standard 15-team league, that is just three SP per team who can be expected to throw a full-season’s worth of innings. Only 23 of these full-time pitchers come with BABS’ strikeout skill.

Expect to pay up for the privilege of drafting an ace. We know that SP who throw 200+ innings and strike out 200+ batters are in short supply. This scarcity is driving up the cost. The top 15 starting pitchers by ADP are all going inside the top 50, and will likely cost a minimum of about $20 at auction. Paying the high price for a rotation anchor looks like a sound investment considering the paucity of options, the proliferation of The Opener and the league-wide trend toward increased  bullpen usage.

The upshot: BABS expects 12 of the top 15 to contribute a full season of fantasy production. The three who miss the “F” cut are studs in their own right, but with less certainty.

Overall, and this is intuitive: Of the 44 full-time SP, just eight (18%) have injury liability. Conversely, 54 of 120 (45%) mid-timers are ticked for injury risk. Narrow it to dual asset (strikeout/ERA combo) pitchers and it’s 5/23 full-timers (21%) as opposed to 20/38 mid-timers (52%) with injury liabilities.

Finally, six of 44 full-timers (13%) and 45/120 mid-timers (38%) carry ERA downside.

Here are the BABS ratings for starting pitchers who will potentially provide some positive value to your team:

ASSETS

LIABILITIES

ADP

R$

Starting Pitchers

Tm

PT

Er

K

Sv

Pk

Rg

Er

Inj

Ex

Nw

Pk

Ag

Rg

16

$31

Sale,Chris

BOS

F

E+

K+

inj-

12

$33

deGrom,Jacob

NYM

F

E+

KK

Rg

37

$22

Kershaw,Clayton

LA

M

E+

KK

INJ

6

$40

Scherzer,Max

WAS

F

ER

K+

23

$27

Kluber,Corey

CLE

F

ER

KK

23

$27

Verlander,Justin

HOU

F

ER

KK

Ag

28

$25

Cole,Gerrit

HOU

F

ER

KK

29

$25

Snell,Blake

TAM

F

ER

KK

Rg

35

$23

Bauer,Trevor

CLE

F

ER

KK

inj-

Rg

37

$22

Severino,Luis

NYY

F

ER

KK

38

$22

Carrasco,Carlos

CLE

F

ER

KK

50

$19

Corbin,Patrick

WAS

F

ER

KK

Nw

39

$22

Buehler,Walker

LA

M

ER

KK

inj-

e

42

$21

Syndergaard,Noah

NYM

M

ER

KK

INJ

56

$18

Paxton,James

NYY

M

ER

KK

INJ

Nw

Pk

61

$18

Strasburg,Stephen

WAS

M

ER

KK

INJ

24

$27

Nola,Aaron

PHI

F

ER

k

Rg

65

$17

Greinke,Zack

ARI

F

ER

k

119

$11

Morton,Charlie

TAM

M

ER

k

inj-

Nw

136

$10

Tanaka,Masahiro

NYY

M

ER

k

inj-

184

$7

Ryu,Hyun-Jin

LA

M

ER

k

INJ

Rg

227

$5

Stripling,Ross

LA

M

ER

k

inj-

65

$17

Flaherty,Jack

STL

F

e

KK

e

120

$11

Ray,Robbie

ARI

F

e

KK

INJ

132

$10

Archer,Chris

PIT

F

e

KK

inj-

157

$8

Darvish,Yu

CHC

M

e

KK

INJ

169

$8

Glasnow,Tyler

TAM

M

e

KK

Rg

e

174

$7

Hill,Rich

LA

M

e

KK

INJ

Ag

197

$6

Reyes,Alex

STL

M

e

KK

INJ

EX

201

$6

James,Joshua

HOU

M

e

KK

EX

230

$5

Maeda,Kenta

LA

M

e

KK

65

$17

Clevinger,Michael

CLE

F

e

k

Rg

78

$15

Berrios,Jose

MIN

F

e

k

82

$15

Foltynewicz,Mike

ATL

F

e

k

Rg

83

$14

Marquez,German

COL

F

e

k

113

$11

Castillo,Luis

CIN

F

e

k

e

149

$9

Hamels,Cole

CHC

F

e

k

202

$6

Gray,Jonathan

COL

F

e

k

Rg

95

$13

Wheeler,Zack

NYM

M

e

k

96

$13

Price,David

BOS

M

e

k

125

$10

Martinez,Carlos

STL

M

e

k

INJ

&nbnbsp;

Rg

139

$9

Happ,J.A.

NYY

M

e

k

Ag

155

$8

Pivetta,Nick

PHI

M

e

k

Rg

157

$8

Bieber,Shane

CLE

M

e

k

Rg

EX

157

$8

Rodriguez,Eduardo

BOS

M

e

k

INJ

169

$8

Heaney,Andrew

LAA

M

e

k

INJ

180

$7

Kikuchi,Yusei

SEA

M

e

k

EX

207

$6

Lucchesi,Joey

SD

M

e

k

inj-

e

227

$5

Wood,Alex

CIN

M

e

k

INJ

Nw

Pk

238

$4

Skaggs,Tyler

LAA

M

e

k

INJ

247

$4

Godley,Zachary

ARI

M

e

k

Rg

258

$3

McHugh,Collin

HOU

M

e

k

Rg

259

$3

Matz,Steven

NYM

M

e

k

inj-

280

$3

Gray,Sonny

CIN

M

e

k

Nw

345

$1

Woodruff,Brandon

MIL

M

e

k

EX

372

$0

Pineda,Michael

MIN

M

e

k

INJ

424

-$1

Anderson,Tyler

COL

M

e

k

618

-$5

Pena,Felix

LAA

M

e

k

e

93

$13

Mikolas,Miles

STL

F

ER

Rg

123

$11

Hendricks,Kyle

CHC

F

ER

253

$4

Nelson,Jimmy

MIL

M

k

INJ

298

$2

Sanchez,Anibal

WAS

M

k

inj-

Nw

Rg

300

$2

Bundy,Dylan

BAL

M

k

Rg

378

$0

Velasquez,Vincent

PHI

M

k

inj-

435

-$2

Richards,Trevor

MIA

M

k

e

720

-$7

Karns,Nathan

BAL

M

k

INJ

Nw

62

$17

Taillon,Jameson

PIT

F

e

74

$16

Bumgarner,Madison

SF

F

e

INJ

Rg

161

$8

Porcello,Rick

BOS

F

e

180

$7

Keuchel,Dallas

FAA

F

e

185

$7

Lester,Jon

CHC

F

e

Rg

188

$6

Quintana,Jose

CHC

F

e

218

$5

Arrieta,Jake

PHI

F

e

inj-

168

$8

Eovaldi,Nathan

BOS

M

e

INJ

235

$4

Musgrove,Joe

PIT

M

e

INJ

745

-$7

Santana,Dennis

LA

ER

KK

INJ

EX

348

$0

Peralta,Freddy

MIL

M

KK

-ER

EX

200

$6

Gausman,Kevin

ATL

F

250

$4

Chacin,Jhoulys

MIL

F

Rg

365

$0

Harvey,Matt

LAA

F

inj-

Nw

443

-$2

Lynn,Lance

TEX

F

517

-$3

Leake,Mike

SEA

F

148

$9

Freeland,Kyle

COL

M

Rg

276

$3

Gibson,Kyle

MIN

M

280

$3

Gonzales,Marco

SEA

M

282

$3

Wacha,Michael

STL

M

INJ

284

$2

Rodon,Carlos

CHW

M

INJ

314

$1

Weaver,Luke

ARI

M

e

Nw

325

$1

Junis,Jakob

KC

M

327

$1

Fiers,Mike

OAK

M

Pk

Nw

Rg

328

$1

Fulmer,Michael

DET

M

inj-

337

$1

Eflin,Zach

PHI

M

e

338

$1

Stroman,Marcus

TOR

M

Rg

INJ

380

$0

Holland,Derek

SF

M

394

-$1

Sanchez,Aaron

TOR

M

INJ

399

-$1

Anderson,Chase

MIL

M

402

-$1

Yarbrough,Ryan

TAM

M

e

412

-$1

Roark,Tanner

CIN

M

Nw

Pk

412

-$1

Sabathia,CC

NYY

M

inj-

Ag

459

-$2

Samardzija,Jeff

SF

M

INJ

486

-$3

Kelly,Merrill

ARI

M

EX

498

-$3

LeBlanc,Wade

SEA

M

536

-$4

Nova,Ivan

CHW

M

Nw

589

-$5

Lauer,Eric

SD

M

inj-

EX

592

-$5

Borucki,Ryan

TOR

M

EX

Rg

645

-$6

Wainwright,Adam

STL

M

INJ

Ag

694

-$6

Senzatela,Antonio

COL

M

inj-

e

722

-$7

Hardy,Blaine

DET

M

490

-$3

Salazar,Danny

CLE

e

KK

INJ

566

-$4

Fried,Max

ATL

e

KK

inj-

EX

577

-$5

Loaisiga,Jonathan

NYY

e

KK

inj-

EX

210

$5

Newcomb,Sean

ATL

M

k

-ER

382

$0

Odorizzi,Jake

MIN

M

k

-ER

486

-$3

Shoemaker,Matthew

TOR

M

k

-ER

INJ

Nw

691

-$6

Norris,Daniel

DET

M

k

-ER

INJ

231

$4

Whitley,Forrest

HOU

e

k

EX

282

$3

Urias,Julio

LA

e

k

INJ

EX

322

$1

Toussaint,Touki

ATL

e

k

EX

493

-$3

Honeywell,Brent

TAM

e

k

INJ

EX

717

-$7

Paulino,David

TOR

e

k

EX

736

-$7

Richards,Garrett

SD

e

k

Pk

INJ

Nw

744

-$7

Armenteros,Rogelio

HOU

e

k

EX

999

-$10

Suarez,Jose

LAA

e

k

EX

296

$2

Soroka,Michael

ATL

ER

INJ

EX

534

-$4

German,Domingo

NYY

KK

Rg

e

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Er (Pitching effectiveness), K (Dominance), Sv (Saves potential), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Er (Pitching Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)

The market has set the top three SP as Max Scherzer (ER,K+), Jacob deGrom (E+,KK – pictured) and Chris Sale (E+,K+|inj-). Sale’s price (ADP 17) picks him as the third off the board. The injury liability has scared some owners off of the top skills in the game. This trio each have their own unique BABS assets unmatched by any other full-time SP.

The next group of full-timers (ER,KK) is more plentiful. Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole are being drafted inside the top 30. Trevor Bauer, Luis Severino and Carlos Carrasco are not far behind, all going in the mid-30s. Patrick Corbin has ascended into ace territory and the market is somewhat skeptical. He represents the only possible “value” of this set, at ADP 50. BABS warns to check the liabilities section, as some are at risk of regression, age or injury. Most, however, seem to be good bets to reach lofty innings totals.

BABS sees the small group of (e,KK) as the last bastion of FT starters with elite level strikeout potential. She also sees some profit potential, though not for the faint-hearted. Chris Archer (ADP 132) and Robby Ray (120) are coming off disappointing seasons. The recency bias is strong with these two, but so is the risk. Archer and Ray are going at least 50 picks after Jack Flaherty (ADP 64), the third and final member of this asset class.  

It might be surprising that BABS’ opinion of Aaron Nola’s strikeout ability (k) is more tempered than the market at large. The truth is, Nola’s K/9 is a tick below the elite level strikeout artists. Along with Zack Greinke, Nola represents one of only two full-timers with (ER,k) skills. Nola’s ADP is 23, Greinke goes off at 65.

BABS’ simplicity can sometimes bring attention to larger themes. Here, she highlights our collective fascination with young, upstart arms. The FOMO driven thirst for the next big thing can lead to aggressive bidding and even overpayment (relative to similar options). The (e,k) group of full-timers counts five players who might fit this mold. Mike Clevinger sticks out with 64 ADP. Take your pick of Jose Berrios, Mike Foltynewicz or German Marquez at ADP’s 78,81 and 82, respectively. Luis Castillo and his strong 2018 finish can be had at 113. BABS doesn’t question their abilities, but she places alongside them a “boring veteran” — Cole Hamels (148) — and a Coors cautionary arm — Jon Gray (201).

And that’s it for full-time SP with BABS strikeout assets. There are useful hurlers among the 21 remaining full-timers. Their workhorse pedigrees will be counted on to bolster K totals.

But there is plenty of talent left in the pool. If things break right, the league-winning types are liable to bubble up from the extensive list of BABS mid-timers.

In all, BABS counts 38 mid-time dual asset starting pitchers. Leading the way is Clayton Kershaw (E+,KK). Following him are the superbly skilled band of (ER,KK) asset holders Walker Buehler, Noah Syndergaard, James Paxton and Stephen Strasburg. Ranging from ADP 38 to 60, these stalwarts still command a pick in the first four rounds. BABS questions their ability to get to 180+ innings, cautioning against the market price.

While the skills are tantalizing, recall that BABS lists these players as mid-timers (mostly) due to  the laundry list of liabilities. This caveat applies to virtually every pitcher with an “M” next to their name. Those in this section without liabilities, like Kenta Maeda (e,KK), David Price (e,k), Zack Wheeler (e,k) and Tyler Anderson (e,k) could be potential profit centers.

When the ADP numbers hit triple digits, the list fills out. We begin to encounter: veteran strikeout artists like Yu Darvish and Rich Hill (e,KK); those with roles up in the air such as Carlos Martinez (e,k) and Ross Striping (ER,k); and chronically injured lefties Andrew Heaney (e,k), Tyler Skaggs (e,k) and Eduardo Rodriguez (e,k). It’s a miasma of talented question marks.

Which makes it difficult to decipher who the best bets are, and that’s the idea. We don’t know, and cannot predict the outcome. However, with BABS’ help, we can hazard an educated guess. There are four pitchers in the maelstrom of dual asset mid-timers that own a third positive indicator: regression. Tyler Glasnow (e,KK), Nick Pivetta (e,k), Shane Bieber (e,k) and Zack Godley (e.k) had 2018 surface stats that belied their respective metrics. Those shopping for low-risk/high-reward players might find these arms intriguing. All go after pick 155.

Low-timers of note with dual (e,k) assets: Forrest Whitley, Julio Urias, Touki Toussaint, Brent Honeywell and Garrett Richards.