Minor League BABS
What is the difference between Austin Slater and Boog Powell? Looking only at their 2017 major league stats, one might conclude, “pretty much nothing.”
PLAYER AB HR SB AVG Austin Slater 117 3 0 .282 Boog Powell 117 3 0 .282
BABS viewed their 2017 performances likewise, awarding them identical ratings of… well, nothing. No assets, no liabilities. They shared that particualr asset group with MLB veterans like Francisco Cervelli, Martin Prado and Ichiro Suzuki – the “don’t help you, don’t hurt you” types.
But despite both being 24-year-old outfielders, there is at least a little difference between Slater and Powell. Their 2017 minor league performances bear that out:
PLAYER AB HR SB AVG Austin Slater 184 5 4 .321 Boog Powell 222 6 11 .333
It looks like Powell has a little more of a speed game. It is for this reason that BABS needs to dig a little deeper to attach some value to players like these.
Admittedly, one weakness of BABS is that she considers all low skilled, low-playing time players as equally replaceable, interchangeable, fungible and bad. For fantasy leaguers in deep-deep leagues, such as 50-round drafts and dynasty leagues, it is tough to tell one crappy player from another. Evaluating minor league numbers is one way to provide some more color.
Of course, minor league performance is not the same as major league performance, so we like to convert those minors numbers into major league equivalent stats (MLEs), which account for level of play, park factors and the like. Using MLEs, BABS can figure out an appropriate rating to attach to these performances.
As such, BABS rates Austin Slater as (a), a player in the same asset group as 2017 major league full/mid-timers Kevin Pillar, Chase Headley and Jason Heyward.
BABS rates Boog Powell as (s,AV), a player similar in skills to 2017 major league full/mid-timers Christian Yelich, Ender Inciarte and Kolton Wong.
These are not necessarily indicators of future potential, just snapshots of what Slater and Powell did in 2017. Their 2018 expectations take these data points into account, as well as any other relevant information. In tandem with their respective Liability ratings, we get a fuller picture:
PT Assets Liab Austin Slater M INJ,EX Boog Powell EX
Both players remain similar, though Slater has perhaps a clearer path to playing time. However, as we know, that and $2.75 will get you on the NYC subway these days.
Here are files with BABS ratings for nearly all 2017 Double-A and Triple-A players. Each file lists the players both alphabetically as well as sorted by asset groups.
For players expected to get AB/IP in 2018, BABS incorporates some of these MLEs as part of the process of constructing the major league ratings. But it’s helpful to see the seeds of where it started, especially for players with little MLB experience.
Just for kicks, I took a quick look to see how BABS rated Alex Reyes. But alas, he’s not in the list. Then I realized why – he didn’t play AA or AAA ball in 2017. But I think he’s expected to get some (if not significant) playing time in St. Louis this year.
I was curious about him as well but I knew with the TJS that he had not played. He will get PT in St. Louis this year but it will probably be after May 1 and may start in the bullpen. That has been fairly successful in years past for teams.
Reyes will be in the Major League update next week. His BABS rating will likely be: (M,e,KK | INJ,EX). Right now, he is tentatively slated to be in the rotation. If that changes, the “M” will go away.
Was curious about Eloy, but he appeared to have very few AA games…
Good stuff. This should help me in a couple of leagues.
I really need to find the best way to use BABS in my drafts. Last years I wrote pages and pages that worked well early in the draft, maybe first third of the draft, then became convoluted. Unfortunately I am not the best with a computer. Any ideas would be greatly appreciated as I really like the info in BABS.
Although you are not the best with a computer, my best advice would be a different computer application which is more automated and intuitive. I’d encourage you to invest in RotoLab software (rotolab.com), which will include BABS ratings this year. I encourage others to hop on this thread and extol the virtues of this great program. There is a little learning curve, but once you’ve mastered it you’ll never go into another fantasy draft again without it.
And Merv who runs rotolab is a fantastic super guy
Merv is indeed a fine person and he is always quick to respond to any questions you might have. Rotolab is a really good program and quite easy to use.
I freak my league members every year by showing up with just some papers I print off from BABS and Baseball HQ with shades of high lighter ink all over them. I still do very well and have taken first place many times among a room full of laptops. Regardless of how, or what we use, still have to do the research… and listen to Ron of course. Lol
Good work on the Minor League BABS Ron!
I’ve been using Rotolab for 4 years, Highly recommended. Merv and his team are awesome.
Great stuff Ron, you continue to impress.
Is it safe to assume, Luis Castillo (CIN, SP) will have a rating higher than all blanks on the MLB BABS release since his AA data was so small prior to call up?
Certainly. Castillo will have a rating of (F,ER,k).
Thanks Ron. I will give that a try.
I’m having trouble finding a key for what the letters mean in the assets columns. For instance what does “M” mean for PT, etc. Any help would be great. Thanks
In the MEMBERS ONLY area, there is a BABS Variables Cheat Sheet.
Thank You!
I just signed up for Rotolab this season and although I have not had a real draft yet, I have 4 in the next couple of weeks and I am very comfortable with Rotolab for BABS. It is very easy to use and Merv helped answer many questions I had.
My impression–and certainly my experience last week–is that Merv’s team is simply Merv, which is what makes him truly exceptional. Reminds me of Ron back in the day, and maybe now again?