July 2019 BABS Update – Pitchers
by Pat Cloghessy
Well, this is awkward. Entering 2019, few would have put Jack Flaherty and Yu Darvish on the same planet. As luck (skill?) would have it, the July BABS update reflects on their skills thusly: (KK |-ER).
But wait a second. Were their converging assets and liabilities a realistic possibility all along? Here were BABS’ preseason projections: Flaherty (e,KK | e), Darvish (e,KK | INJ). It appears the Ks have held, but the rest…Well, maybe those thorny liabilities have something to offer.
Yu’s relatively cheap cost allowed owners to either send him to the waiver wire, or to the bench. The same cannot be said of Flaherty. There were big expectations (ADP 63). The large investment probably invited owners in to “be patient”.
So the suffering has likely been greater for Flaherty owners. Inevitably, he found his way into lineups even after things went south, roughing up rate stats in the process.
What else does the fresh BABS update have to say about asset groupings?
E+,KK
Luis Castillo and Charlie Morton are the only two full-time SP to inhabit this skill pairing. Castillo’s walks per nine (4.5) continue to be a worry, but his BA against (.168) is so good he’s been able to limit the damage. His xFIP is a full run and a half higher than his ERA (3.79-2.29). The warning signs are there, but so is the fact that Castillo’s walk would be a career high…by far.
Tyler Glasnow and Rich Hill boast highly-rated BABS assets, but it’s hard to help a fantasy team from the IL. Neither seems especially close to returning, so stash and hope.
Finally, and of great intrigue, is part of the Marlins’ return in the Christian Yelich deal: Jordan Yamamoto. Yes, the sample is small, but the assets are top shelf. Entrenched in the rotation, Yamamoto could be one of these 2nd half studs who helps grab points in the standings. And if BABS is right, he could help across the board.
ER,KK
Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito have proven to be rotation cornerstones this season. Logging extensive innings with impressive skills, these two have earned their spots. Jacob deGrom has taken a step back, but his floor is still higher than most ceilings. Don’t rule out this, plus more in the 2nd half.
Walker Buehler (pictured) has delivered on 2018’s promise and become one fantastic SP. Patrick Corbin is out there earning his contract riches.
The biggest surprise in this group might be Stephen Strasburg. These are vintage Strasburg skills . But he is, and has been, ON THE FIELD (knock on wood). Sell high (read: healthy), or ride the wave?
BABS sees David Price and Chris Paddack as mid-timers. We have already seen San Diego manage Paddack’s workload, and there is likely more to come. Price has also seen his usage manipulated at times this season. Paddack is young, so he comes with outsized hype. Looking at the skills and surface stats. Price is basically the same pitcher, and doing it in the AL East.
e,KK
This tier is a bit of a mixed bag. We have disappointments: Aaron Nola (6th SP selected), Trevor Bauer (9th), and James Paxton (14th). The parenthetical figures represent their ranking among NFBC drafters.
BABS was not as bullish on Nola (ER,k). Maybe a lot of use here heeded BABS’ assessment and therefore “missed out” on Nola. If so, congrats! So far. A peek at Nola’s monthly wOBA against since the start of the season: 368, .314, .269 and in three July starts: .235. The window to buy is closing fast.
With the same assets, Matthew Boyd (119th pitcher off the board) and Brandon Woodruff (115th) are considered risers, not disappointments. Funny how that works. Expectations are everything. Prices matter.
Robbie Ray and Sonny Gray have rekindled flames of past successes. Caleb Smith and Domingo German appeared to be on the cusp of something great. Then they landed on the IL. Both are now healthy, and have shown flashes of the pre-injury electricity that got us all excited.
-ER
There are 68 full or mid-time SP who can claim the (-ER) liability. If they could relinquish this dubious qualifier, they would. But like us fantasy players, the stats are already in the can. They, nor we, can edit them out. So, if you rostered the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Dylan Bundy or Michael Pineda, you have paid the price.
Draft capital spent on Matt Strahm, Jake Arrieta and Mike Foltynewicz has also yielded negative results.
With this many liabilities, it’s virtually impossible to avoid them all. In deeper leagues, some of these guys are part of regular fantasy rotations. Unsurprisingly, within the 68 is a wide disparity in ERA. If forced to roster pitchers with liabilities, it is best to find those that come with a strikeout asset. Find a silver lining, and some extra whiffs.
So maybe Syndergaard and Wheeler aren’t so bad after all, considering the alternatives. Eduardo Rodriguez and Julio Teheran are fine as well. BABS rates all four as (k|-ER) and they were targets at various points in most drafts. The obvious room for upside makes them the creme of the liability crop. Who knows, in two months we could be laughing at how miscast these guys seemed in July.
Here’s hoping…