Insights from the BABS Database Player Scans

The new BABS Database provides us with a bit of historical perspective on players. The end-of-season Asset ratings from 2014, 2015 and 2016 have been loaded in, giving us a nice three-year scan that helps provide insight into the 2017 ratings.

Here are several players with interesting scans, along with some commentary. Players are listed in ADP order, more or less.

BRYCE HARPER
Year	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av
====    ===     ==      ==      ===     ===     ==      ==      ==      ==
2014	352	13	2	273	344	M	p
2015	521	42	6	330	460	F	P+		A+
2016	506	24	21	243	373	F	p
2017p						F	PW		a

Have Harper’s skills changed any during the past three inconsistent years? In fact, 2014 and 2016 are quite similar. His 2015 breakout year is the outlier, even when you look at his entire career, but BABS is more kind for 2017. She’s giving him some rebound in both power and batting average. As for last year’s surprising speed? BABS says no.

EDWIN ENCARNACION
Year	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av
====    ===     ==      ==      ===     ===     ==      ==      ==      ==
2014	477	34	2	268	354	F	P+		AV
2015	528	39	3	277	372	F	P+		AV
2016	601	42	2	263	357	F	P+		a
2017p						F	P+		AV

Encarnacion’s HR output may be rising, but the underlying skills are within a stable, elite power range. More interesting is the fact that, while his batting average has been consistent over time, BABS registered some skills decline in 2016. He’s projected to bounce back – history pretty much dictates it – but you have to wonder if last year might be a warning sign.

STARLING MARTE
Year	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av
====    ===     ==      ==      ===     ===     ==      ==      ==      ==
2014	495	13	30	291	356	F	PW	S+	AV
2015	579	19	30	287	337	F		SB	AV
2016	489	9	47	311	362	F		S+	AV
2017p						F		S+	AV

Power? Speed? What exactly is Marte’s (pictured) skill set? While he was demonstrating power in 2014, the outward growth in 2015 was not skills-supported. So when his HR output tanked in 2016, we should not have been surprised. Speed is more locked in. BABS projected a “S+” rating coming into 2016 but it was one of the rare instances when I manually overrode it (to “SB”) in the spreadsheet. I was wrong. BABS was right. BABS is always right.

GIANCARLO STANTON
Year	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av
====    ===     ==      ==      ===     ===     ==      ==      ==      ==
2014	539	37	13	288	395	F	P+		AV
2015	279	27	4	265	346	M	P+		a
2016	413	27	0	240	326	M	P+
2017p						F	P+		a

Despite all the missed time, his power was never in question. His batting effectiveness, however, has seen some decay over these three years. BABS gives some of that back, most likely because he has shown better skill in the past.

ROBINSON CANO
Year	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av
====    ===     ==      ==      ===     ===     ==      ==      ==      ==
2014	595	14	10	314	382	F			A+
2015	624	21	2	287	334	F	p		AV
2016	655	39	0	298	350	F	p		AV
2017p						F	p		AV

A recent commenter asked why Cano was given a “Rg” regression Liability for 2017. This scan shows that, despite the sharp spike in 2016 HR, his underlying power skill was unchanged from 2015. That has regression written all over it.

JEAN SEGURA
Year	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av
====    ===     ==      ==      ===     ===     ==      ==      ==      ==
2014	513	5	20	246	289	F		SB	a
2015	560	6	25	257	281	F		SB
2016	637	20	33	319	368	F		S+	A+
2017p						F		SB	AV

What is real about his 2016 breakout, and what is not? The speed is real; it’s a skill he’s demonstrated throughout. He took a step up last year but BABS tempers him back a bit for 2017. His batting average spike was somewhat less real, though he did show some upside in 2014. BABS would have been within her rights to give him an “a” for 2017, but she splits the difference.

Finally, the power. BABS is a non-believer here, but you have to put this in perspective. These ratings represent a scale that moves with the level of skill displayed league-wide each year. Segura’s 2014-2015 power output was clearly below average no matter how you cut it. But skills supporting 2016’s spike were also below average in a year when everyone was hitting home runs. That means, even if a regressed projection gives him 16 HRs in 2017, it’s just not going to help you. In an era of elevated power, you need more output to move the needle.

JON LESTER
Year	IP	W	K	ERA	WHIP	PT	Er	K
====    ===     ==      ==      ====    ====    ==      ==      == 
2014	220	16	220	2.46	1.10	F	ER	k
2015	205	11	207	3.34	1.12	F	ER	k
2016	203	19	197	2.44	1.02	F	ER	KK
2017p						F	ER	k

Small shifts in surface stats tend to drive larger moves in a player’s draft ranking, but skills don’t change all that much. Lester is nearly the exact same pitcher for the past three years, despite the nearly one-run swing in ERA.

CHRIS ARCHER
Year	IP	W	K	ERA	WHIP	PT	Er	K
====    ===     ==      ==      ====    ====    ==      ==      ==
2014	195	10	173	3.33	1.28	F	e	k
2015	212	12	252	3.23	1.14	F	ER	K+
2016	201	9	233	4.02	1.24	F	e	K+
2017p						F	ER	KK

Archer had an off-year in 2016, but you can still see he owns a great deal of skill. For 2017, it’s interesting that BABS nicks him in the strikeout department but gives him a mulligan in pitching effectiveness. I suppose she is hoping he finds more of a balance. Because BABS loves balance.

COLE HAMELS
Year	IP	W	K	ERA	WHIP	PT	Er	K
====    ===     ==      ==      ====    ====    ==      ==      ==
2014	205	9	198	2.46	1.15	F	ER	k
2015	212	13	215	3.65	1.19	F	e	KK
2016	201	15	200	3.32	1.31	F	e	KK
2017p						F	e	KK

You can see how Hamels’ game has shifted over the past two years. He seems locked in now at this level.

This is fun. I could write these all day, but there are still other things to do, people to see, ballgames to attend and hot dogs to eat. You can check out the database yourself and look at players you are interested in. During the season, I’ll run occasional performance validations using the same charts.

If you have questions, the forums are a great place to ask them.