If Every Player Was Healthy

March 17, 2016

Here is where the beauty of BABS really comes into play.

Players with overriding Liabilities – from health to experience to playing time opportunity – are never accurately portrayed by current rating and ranking systems. There is no better time to show this than spring training.

Several young players are making some noise in camp and challenging for roster spots. While you might be aware of guys like Brandon Drury and Keon Broxton, current projections do not do them any justice. But BABS tells you exactly what their Assets are, despite both being listed as mid-timers or part-timers.

Arizona’s Drury is rated as (p,AV | EX). Scan up the list to the (p,AV) group of experienced full-timers to find his comps, which include Robinson Cano, Eric Hosmer and even teammate David Peralta. Now you know where Drury potentially fits in if he is given an opportunity and makes full use of those skills. And as Tuesday’s column on Experience risk points out, (p,AV) is just a starting point; he may well improve or regress from there.

Similarly, Broxton is listed as (p,SB | AV,EX). As it turns out, this profile has no comps among full-timers. The closest is Dexter Fowler (p,SB), but Broxton has batting average Liability.

I’ll look at more of these guys next Friday. But today, it’s about health.

The INJ List  

Here is a list of the highest skilled players with the most Injury risk (INJ). They have the most uncertainty coming into 2016, either because they are hurt now or because they have the longest history of injury concerns.

Note that all of these players have INJ in that column (so it’s been omitted). I’ve also omitted other columns that had few or no entries.

ASSETS LIABILITIES
Marketplace BATTER Pos Tm PT Pw Sp Av Av Ex Nw Ag Rg
ADP $$   PITCHER Pos Tm PT Er K Sv Er Ex Nw Ag Rg
25 $26 Springer,George o9 HOU F PW SB a e
43 $21 Braun,Ryan o9 MIL F PW AV
87 $14 Pujols,Albert 30 LAA F p AV Ag
106 $12 + Pence,Hunter o9 SF F p AV
253 $4 + Span,Denard 8o SF F SB AV Nw
156 $8 + Wieters,Matt 2 BAL F PW a
30 $24 X Fernandez,Jose SP MIA M ER K+        
122 $11 Darvish,Yu SP TEX M ER K+        
224 $5 + Zimmerman,Ryan 3 WAS M P+ AV
73 $16 Rendon,Anthony 45 WAS F p a
83 $14 X Puig,Yasiel 9o LA F p a Rg
248 $4 + Holliday,Matt o7 STL F p a Ag
168 $8 Smyly,Drew SP TAM M ER KK        
77 $15 X Wainwright,Adam SP STL F ER          
162 $8 Pedroia,Dustin 4 BOS F AV
118 $11 X Tanaka,Masahiro SP NYY M ER k        
273 $3 Ryu,Hyun-Jin SP LA M ER k        
199 $6 Doolittle,Sean rp OAK – ER K+ sv-      
243 $4 Mcgee,Jake rp COL – ER K+ sv-     Nw  
295 $2   + Capps,Carter rp MIA – ER K+ sv-     e  
336 $1   + Grilli,Jason rp ATL – ER K+ sv-     Ag
134 $10 X Iwakuma,Hisashi SP SEA F e          
169 $8 Kang,Jung-ho 56 PIT M p AV e
288 $2 Travis,Devon 4 TOR M p AV EX
547 $(4) Morneau,Justin 3 FAN M p AV
151 $9 Mesoraco,Devin 2 CIN F p
201 $6 Myers,Wil o83 SD F p
408 $(1) Cozart,Zack 6 CIN F a
297 $2 Werth,Jayson o7 WAS M PW a Ag
323 $1 Adams,Matt 3 STL M PW a
354 $0 Hamilton,Josh o7 TEX M PW a
164 $8 X Pineda,Michael SP NYY M e k        
399 $(1) Maurer,Brandon rp SD M e k        
411 $(1) Latos,Mat SP CHW M e k       Nw  
494 $(3) Bailey,Homer SP CIN M e k        
300 $2 Hernandez,David rp PHI – e K+ sv-     Nw  
113 $11 X Matz,Steven SP NYM M ER         EX  
222 $5 X Garcia,Jaime SP STL M ER          
132 $10 X D Arnaud,Travis 2 NYM M p a e
223 $5 X Wright,David 5 NYM M p a
401 $(1) Lowrie,Jed 5 OAK M p a Nw
499 $(3) Freese,David 5 PIT M p a
Buchholz,Clay SP BOS M e          
Corbin,Patrick SP ARI M e          
Hahn,Jesse SP OAK M e         e  
Brantley,Michael o78 CLE M AV
Sanchez,Anibal SP DET M   k        
de la Rosa,Jorge SP COL M   k        
Moore,Matt SP TAM M   k        
Sabathia,CC SP NYY M   k        
Norris,Daniel SP DET M   k     -ER EX  
Jones,Nate rp CHW – ER K+        
Walden,Jordan rp STL – ER K+        
Uehara,Koji rp BOS – ER K+       Ag
Furbush,Charlie rp SEA – ER KK        
Pomeranz,Drew rp SD – ER KK       Nw  
Hatcher,Chris rp LA – ER KK       e  
Souza,Steven o9 TAM M p EX
Reimold,Nolan o7 BAL M p -AV
Jaso,John 0 PIT M a Nw
Lambo,Andrew o OAK P PW a EX
Feldman,Scott SP HOU M            
Fister,Doug SP HOU M            
Holland,Derek SP TEX M            
Medlen,Kris SP KC M            
Nova,Ivan SP NYY M            
Peralta,Wily SP MIL M            
Perez,Martin SP TEX M            
Tomlin,Josh SP CLE M            
Wilson,C.J. SP LAA M            
Morton,Charlie SP PHI M           Nw  
Paxton,James SP SEA M           e  
Skaggs,Tyler SP LAA M           e  
Garza,Matt SP MIL M         -ER  
Cain,Matt SP SF M         -ER  
Cosart,Jarred SP MIA M         -ER  
Gonzalez,Miguel SP BAL M         -ER  
Lyles,Jordan SP COL M         -ER  
Nolasco,Ricky SP MIN M         -ER  
Peavy,Jake SP SF M         -ER  
Weaver,Jered SP LAA M         -ER  
Lee,Cliff SP FAN – ER k       Ag
Blevins,Jerry rp NYM – e KK        
Beliveau,Jeff rp BAL – e KK       EX  
Ramirez,Neil rp CHC – e KK       EX  
Jennings,Desmond o7 TAM M s
Carpenter,David rp ATL – e k        
Cobb,Alex SP TAM – e k        
Hudson,Daniel rp ARI – e k        
Ogando,Alexi rp ATL – e k        
Ottavino,Adam rp COL – e k        
Santos,Sergio rp FAA – e k        
Bailey,Andrew rp PHI – e k       Nw  
Rasmus,Cory rp LAA – e k       e  
Wheeler,Zack SP NYM – e k       e  
Bundy,Dylan SP BAL – e k       EX  
Saunders,Michael o TOR M -AV
Crisp,Coco o7 OAK M -AV Ag
Ishikawa,Travis 3 CHW P PW -AV
Crawford,Carl o7 LA P s a
Delgado,Randall rp ARI –   KK        
Cingrani,Tony rp CIN –   KK       e  
Rondon,Bruce rp DET –   KK       EX  
Rosscup,Zachary rp CHC –   KK       EX  
Withrow,Chris rp ATL –   KK       EX  
Davis,Ike 3 TEX P p Nw
Blanks,Kyle 3 SF P p -AV Nw
Quentin,Carlos 7 MIN P p
Swisher,Nick 0o7 ATL P p -AV
Izturis,Maicer 4 TOR P a
Gosselin,Phil 4 ARI P a EX
Tejada,Ruben 6 NYM P a
Cowgill,Collin o7 CLE P a e
Williams,Mason 8o NYY P a EX
Burnett,Sean rp WAS – e          
McCarthy,Brandon SP LA – e          
Richard,Clayton SP CHC – e          
Varvaro,Anthony rp BOS – e          
Whitley,Chase SP TAM – e         e Nw  
Flores,Kendry SP MIA – e         EX  
Schafer,Jordan o8 LA P SB -AV
Richardson,Antoan 8 PIT P SB -AV EX
Floyd,Gavin SP TOR –   k        
Lincecum,Tim SP FAN –   k        
Morrow,Brandon SP SD –   k        
Feliz,Neftali rp PIT –   k       Nw  
Blazek,Michael rp MIL –   k       e  
Montas,Frankie SP LA –   k       EX  
Montero,Rafael SP NYM –   k       EX  
Edgin,Josh rp NYM –   k     -ER e  
Nathan,Joe rp FAA –   k     -ER Ag
Cordier,Erik rp FAN –   k     -ER EX  
Smith,Burch SP TAM –   k     -ER EX  
Yates,Kirby rp NYY –   k     -ER EX  

 ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Average), ER (ERA Potential), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves). LIABILITIES: Av (Average), ER (ERA), Ex (Experience), Nw (New team), Ag (Age), Rg (Regression). MARKET: + (Undervalued), X (Overvalued)

When it comes to looking at these players with the biggest health issues, it’s all about your risk tolerance. You have a budget for these types of players. You have to decide whether you want to expend that budget at the top end of the talent pool – where you might get the biggest discount on acquisition cost – or at the bottom where the risk is lower but so is the upside.

So you can bite the bullet on George Springer, whose ADP is #25 despite having never reached even 460 plate appearances in a season. You can follow the health reports and take a chance on Devin Mesoraco. Or you can tuck Koji Uehara on your reserve list because you know that whatever stats he does manage to give you will be superb.

A few players, Like Hunter Pence, Denard Span and Matt Wieters already have some profit built into their ranking. Others, like Mets Steven Matz and David Wright are being over-drafted despite the injury concerns. I’d stay far away from those guys.

For the most risk averse, you might just use this as a Do Not Draft list, which is perfectly fine. It won’t guarantee that the players you draft stay healthy (every player starts with 25 percent odds of hitting the DL). You also have to accept the risk that your league’s winning team might be the one that takes a chance on a star player on this list who puts in a full season of productive at-bats or innings.

But let’s get back to the core question: what if all these players were healthy?

Just like the Drury and Broxton examples earlier, you can look to the healthy players to find comps for those who are hobbling.

Ryan Braun (PW,AV) is barely a $20 player these days, but a healthy season could put him in the same class as fellow (PW,AV) stalwarts like Anthony Rizzo and Jose Abreu, who are going for at least $7 more in auctions. Albert Pujols and Hunter Pence (both p,AV) compare to the healthier Eric Hosmer and perhaps even Buster Posey.

Neither Jose Fernandez nor Yu Darvish (both ER,K+) are being drafted at full value, but if they were, we’d be talking about them in the same breath as Max Scherzer or Chris Sale.

How can you use this on Draft Day? BABS is all about finding pockets of profit by drafting against marketplace perception. Leveraging a hurt player’s upside against his market price is another way to accomplish this. This is a riskier path, for sure. But nobody is drafting Fernandez at the same price/round as Scherzer and your speculation could be worth $10 of pure profit.

Follow the health reports. Assess them as just another piece of information, not gospel; there are no guarantees anywhere. And then decide where you want to take your chances on Draft Day.

NOTE: BABS spreadsheets for AL/NL-only leagues have been updated.

 

 

Posted in Book updates and tagged , ,

18 Comments

  1. Richard Lando on March 18, 2016 at 11:17 am

    How much less of a risk would a player with inj- be compared to one of these players with an INJ?



  2. shandler on March 18, 2016 at 12:43 pm

    As noted in Chapter 4, every player starts with 25% odds of spending significant time on the DL. inj- players’ odds are 26-50%. INJ players are basically 50-50 bets to spend significant time on the DL.



  3. Chris Landreman on March 18, 2016 at 1:50 pm

    Dam some sexy names on there at those prices. How Risk averse are you? If Springer is there in my league at $26 I may jump on that he went for $25 last year. 14 team league 5×5 H2H weekly change. Braun at $21 and Pujols at $14. So tough. Would you jump on all 3 if I got them for those prices or maybe only take a chance on 1 maybe 2? I’m leaning 1 maybe 2. Span is tempting at four. At $12 I’d rather spend the money on Peralta, Conforto and maybe even revere. I got Revere at 13 last year.

    Thanks!



  4. shandler on March 18, 2016 at 2:10 pm

    BABS gives you a budget for how many health-challenged players you can afford to roster. You can’t have them all, regardless of price, without taking on undue risk.



  5. Chris Landreman on March 18, 2016 at 2:22 pm

    Also on a side note, Mr Grey thinks Span and Revere are the same player. To me it’s a tough call, only because of the price difference it would be. I’d take Revere over Span all day long but if I can get Span at $5 which I think will be possible it might be worth spending the $10 somewhere else.

    Thoughts?



  6. shandler on March 18, 2016 at 2:37 pm

    Who is Mr. Grey? If you can get a comparable player for less money, where is the decision?



  7. Chris Landreman on March 18, 2016 at 2:37 pm

    Makes sense thanks!



  8. Chris Landreman on March 18, 2016 at 2:46 pm

    Grey on Razzball. Not sure if it’s the same Grey You mentioned in one of your articles. Regarding Span and Revere, I guess the injury concern is about it with me. Also Revere from what I’m reading is having an awesome Spring, Span is hurt already but it doesn’t sound serious. I know we can’t go nuts on spring numbers. I’m sure I’ll look for Span at the discount.

    Thanks again!



  9. Bob Walker on March 18, 2016 at 3:57 pm

    I am in a keeper auction league and we can trade keepers and auction dollars, I have been offered Adam Jones & Shelby Miller +$20 auction dollars for AJ Pollock, what do you think about that, also was offered Danny Salazar & Lindor straight up for Pollock



  10. shandler on March 18, 2016 at 4:01 pm

    First deal is interesting, not thrilled with the 2nd deal, but need more info. Who would you have to cut to accommodate the extra player?



  11. Bob Walker on March 18, 2016 at 4:02 pm

    Longoria or Duda



  12. Bob Walker on March 18, 2016 at 4:05 pm

    longoria or Duda



  13. shandler on March 18, 2016 at 4:08 pm

    So now the deals are:
    (Adam Jones & Shelby Miller +$20) for (AJ Pollock and Longoria or Duda)
    (Danny Salazar & Lindor) for (Pollock and Longoria or Duda)
    These represent the impact on your roster. I like Duda so I would not cut him. Assuming you are only doing this for the pitcher, and if you cut Longoria, I’d do the first deal.



  14. Bob Walker on March 18, 2016 at 4:15 pm

    thanks, makes sense



  15. Allan Caan on March 19, 2016 at 5:17 pm

    I may have missed it, but I haven’t seen any explanation for the +, a+ or AV+ that are on the latest AL/NL spreadsheets.



  16. shandler on March 19, 2016 at 5:24 pm

    Read “BABS in Leagues with Alternative Rules”
    https://babsbaseball.com/babs-in-leagues-with-alternative-rules/



  17. DENNIS RUPP on March 21, 2016 at 11:20 am

    Hi Ron,
    My Keepers are due on Friday. I’m in a 10 team 5X5 Mixed league. We keep 11 with 30 man rosters. I’m keeping: Kershaw 12, Bumgarner 7, Sale 5, Urias 1 (Future), Posey 9, C. Seager 1, Stanton 10, Betts 2, Puig 4, Yelich 3. My last keeper is between Dozier 6 & M. Carpenter 14. Which would you keep? Obviously, we will have high Inflation, so if I keep Dozier, I plan to go after Carpenter, but I think the “extra” will be less for Carpenter than for Dozier. Any thoughts?
    I have enjoyed your new site & BABS! Thanks!



  18. shandler on March 21, 2016 at 11:34 am

    If you keep Dozier (at a more difficult position), that gives you $8 more to spend on Carpenter.