Early BABS Observations
As noted on Tuesday, early season’s extreme performances will take some time to settle down, and that’s reflected in the early BABS ratings. No, Aledmys Diaz is not the best player in baseball, but BABS sure does like his skills in those small-sample April ABs. The next few full-timers, however, have more for us to talk about.
Dexter Fowler has gotten off to a great start. We have been waiting for his breakout season for eight years now. His BABS rating coming into 2016 [p,SB,+] reflected the seeds of what he’s doing now [P+,SB,AV+]. Odds are he won’t keep up this pace, but he might well settle into some in-between level.
In the 3Bman analysis back in February, I speculated that Nick Castellanos was showing essentially the same skill set [PW,a] as Evan Longoria, who was going 10 rounds earlier. Well, the 24-year-old Castellanos has taken an early step up [P+,SB,AV-]. The 30-year-old Longoria has seen improved early power as well, though the rest of his skill set has stagnated [P+,-].
Baseball’s leading earner at the one month mark is Jose Altuve [P+,s,AV+]. Coming into the season, BABS did not believe in his 2015 power, seeing him only as a speed/average guy [SB,AV]. It’s possible that she’s wrong (but don’t tell her that) but it’s still early.
The [P+,AV+] tier is currently 16 players deep; that will change. The pre-season list was only half as long and odds are some players will start dropping off. Josh Donaldson, Bryce Harper and David Ortiz continue to anchor the group. Part-timers like Tommy LaStella, Carlos Ruiz and Drew Butera will likely be the first ones to go. But there are some other intriguing names here.
Chris Carter’s power has never been questioned but his early batting average surge harkens back to the second half of 2014. It might be a skill he still owns…. Ditto for Mark Reynolds, and his current Coors address makes him all that more alluring…
Finally, Sean Rodriguez (pictured) is one of those players that I can’t quit. While he has struggled in the majors for nearly a decade, showing infrequent bouts of productivity, his minor league numbers oozed all sorts of power. I can’t forget his 2009 Double-A season: 30 HR, 98 RBI, .294. While I’ve long given up on Brandon Wood, I will always hang tight to “skills ownership.”
Another confession, of a different type… For the pre-season ratings, I left BABS to her own devices and didn’t adjust any player. Except for two. BABS kept giving Michael Conforto extreme power skill but I thought that giving him a [P+,AV] rating – elevating him into a group with first round-caliber players – might challenge her credibility. Similarly, she gave Starling Marte a [p,SB+,AV] rating, also elevating him to elite status. So I cut both down. Yes, I defied BABS.
While it’s still early, both seem to be living up to her higher expectation – Conforto is earning his current [P+,AV] rating. Marte is improving in his own way [PW,SB,AV-] as well. Never disagree with BABS.
The [P+,AV] tier is even deeper at 19 players, the only difference being a more league average walk rate. The usual suspects reside here – Nolan Arenado, Yoenis Cespedes, Mark Trumbo – but some other interesting names as well.
Manny Machado is validating last year’s power output better than he did last year… Welington Castillo seems to be a must-have at a scarce catching position… Will Myers and Yasmany Tomas are growth stocks, but I’d still question their sustainability at this level… If they ever gave Ryan Raburn regular ABs in Colorado, he could be huge… Derek Dietrich might provide at least some positive value in Dee Gordon’s absence.
Here is an interesting pre-season group that has gotten off on different footing than expected:
Player Pre-Season Current ============ ========== ======= Pollock,A.J. p,SB,AV Injured Betts,M p,SB,AV p,S+,a- Marte,S p,SB,AV PW,SB,AV- Blackmon,C p,SB,AV SB,+ (< 50 AB)
If I had asked you a month ago to give me the two closest pitchers in terms of skill to Clayton Kershaw [E+,K+], you probably would have said Chris Sale and Max Scherzer. Well, Sale [E+,k] and Scherzer [e,KK] are doing okay, but the two pitchers currently with identical [E+,K+] ratings are Noah Syndegaard and Vince Velasquez. Syndegaard just might stick.
The starting pitcher groups behind them on the skills chain provide great early fodder for analysis. Stephen Strasburg and Jose Quintana both share [E+,KK] ratings. Taijuan Walker and Kenta Maeda join a group [E+,k] that includes Jake Arrieta, Chris Sale and Jon Lester. Considering Drew Smyly and Danny Salazar as equivalent is not that much of a stretch, but including Rich Hill and Drew Pomeranz in the same skills tier [ER,K+] is more interesting.
But again, it’s early.
May 1 Update [EXCEL] [VIEW/PRINT]