Dynasty Leagues and a BABS Love Letter

Can BABS work in a deep, dynasty league format? I took it out for a spin in the XFL Experts league to find out.

The incidentals:

The XFL is the industry’s only experts league with keepers, but it’s really a hybrid keeper/dynasty competition. It is a 15-team mixed league that uses 9 of the 10 standard 5×5 categories, with OBP replacing batting average.

Each team has 40-man rosters. The 23-man active roster auction takes place each November at First Pitch Arizona. The 17-man reserve snake draft takes place at the end of March.

Drafted major leaguers receive an annual $5 salary increase each year. Players drafted as farm players receive an annual $3 increase once they are promoted. Any players can be kept for as long as you are willing to pay the increases, though each team can only protect 15 each year. Of the 225 players that could have been protected coming into 2016, 44 of them were farm players.

Here are the results of the November draft.

I enter 2016 in year #2 of a rebuild. Last season was the beginning of the construction process and this year it continues. I see myself as a marginal contender right now and will likely trade off any valuable assets if it becomes apparent that I will not be in the thick of it.

I scanned the list of available players and identified those that might be a consideration for my reserve draft. The only blatant hole on my active roster is Daniel Norris, who I had purchased for $3 back in November. I had protected a $6 Andrew Miller, whose saves value will likely only last for one month [whoops – that’s gone now!], so I’ll need to beef up there as well. I’m painfully short on speed. And my Chris Iannetta-Kevin Plawecki catching tandem is weak, though the available backstops provide little hope for an upgrade.

Hmm… Maybe my potential to contend is a little bit less than marginal.

Here was the BABS available talent pool I assembled:

ASSETS

LIABILITIES

BATTER

Pos

Tm

PT

Pw

Sp

Av

Pk

Rg

Av

Inj

Ex

Nw

Pk

Ag

Rg

+

Martinez,Victor

0

DET

F

p

AV

Ag

Pierzynski,A.J.

2

ATL

M

AV

–

Ag

Avila,Alex

23

CHW

M

p

+

Rg

AV

inj-

Nw

Knapp,Andrew

2

PHI

P

PW

s

a

EX

8C

Sanchez,Gary

2

NYY

P

PW

a

EX

7C

Murphy,Tom

2

COL

P

P+

AV

EX

Saltalamacchia,J

2

DET

P

P+

AV

Nw

Conger,Hank

2

TAM

P

p

AV

Nw

Murphy,John

2

MIN

P

a

EX

Nw

Pena,Brayan

2

STL

P

a

Nw

+

Trumbo,Mark

o903

BAL

F

PW

a

Pk

Nw

Napoli,Mike

3

CLE

F

PW

+

Nw

Park,Byung Ho

3

MIN

F

PW

EX

Shaw,Travis

3

BOS

M

PW

a

EX

Howard,Ryan

3

PHI

M

P+

Ag

Smoak,Justin

3

TOR

M

P+

Paulsen,Ben

3o

COL

M

PW

EX

Morrison,Logan

3

TAM

M

p

inj-

Nw

8C

Reed,A.J.

3

HOU

P

PW

a

EX

Lee,Dae-ho

3

SEA

P

p

a

EX

White,Tyler

3

HOU

M

+

EX

8C

Shaffer,Richie

3

TAM

P

PW

AV

EX

Morse,Michael

3

PIT

P

p

inj-

Rg

7C

Cecchini,Garin

30

MIL

P

s

AV

EX

Nw

Spangenberg,Cory

4

SD

F

SB

a

inj-

EX

Schoop,Jonathan

4

BAL

F

PW

–

inj-

e

7C

Johnson,Micah

4

LA

P

EX

Nw

Prado,Martin

5

MIA

F

AV

inj-

+

Valencia,Danny

5o7

OAK

M

PW

AV

Uribe,Juan

5

CLE

M

p

AV

Nw

Ag

Headley,Chase

5

NYY

F

a

Lamb,Jacob

5

ARI

M

p

a

e

Valbuena,Luis

53

HOU

M

PW

+

8C

Drury,Brandon

5

ARI

P

p

AV

–

EX

Reynolds,Mark

35

COL

P

PW

+

Pk

Nw

Escobar,Eduardo

6o7

MIN

F

p

a

+

Cabrera,Asdrubal

6

NYM

F

p

inj-

Nw

Iglesias,Jose

6

DET

F

a

e

Ramirez,Alexei

6

SD

F

a

–

8C

Story,Trevor

6

COL

P

P+

SB

AV

EX

Gonzalez,Marwin

365

HOU

M

a

Villar,Jonathan

6

MIL

M

SB

AV

e

Nw

8C

Hanson,Alen

6

PIT

P

S+

AV

EX

7B

Polanco,Jorge

6

MIN

P

EX

+

Aoki,Norichika

o7

SEA

F

s

AV

inj-

Nw

+

Cabrera,Melky

o7

CHW

F

AV

+

Santana,Domingo

o98

MIL

F

PW

AV

EX

Jackson,Austin

o89

CHW

F

s

a

Nw

Kim,Hyun-Soo

7

BAL

F

a

EX

Naquin,Tyler

8

CLE

M

p

s

a

EX

Broxton,Keon

o

MIL

M

p

SB

AV

EX

Davis,Rajai

o87

CLE

M

SB

a

Nw

9C

Phillips,Brett

8

MIL

P

p

SB

a

EX

Dyson,Jarrod

o87

KC

P

S+

a

INJ

Raburn,Ryan

0o

COL

P

PW

a

9D

Brinson,Lewis

8

TEX

P

p

s

a

EX

7B

Mahtook,Mikie

o

TAM

P

P+

s

EX

Gose,Anthony

8o

DET

M

SB

AV

Lambo,Andrew

o

OAK

P

p

a

INJ

EX

Martin,Leonys

8o

SEA

M

s

Rg

AV

Nw

Rickard,Joey

7

BAL

P

SB

a+

EX

8A

Zimmer,Bradley

8

CLE

P

p

SB

AV

EX

8C

Quinn,Roman

8

PHI

P

S+

EX

Arcia,Oswaldo

o

MIN

P

p

inj-

8D

Thompson,Trayce

o

LA

P

p

EX

8C

Smith,Mallex

8

ATL

P

SB

EX

+/-

PITCHER

Pos

Tm

PT

Er

K

Sv

Pk

Rg

Er

Inj

Ex

Nw

Pk

Ag

Rg

+

Grilli,Jason

rp

ATL

–

ER

K+

sv-

INJ

Ag

Perkins,Glen

rp

MIN

–

e

KK

SV

Knebel,Corey

rp

MIL

–

ER

KK

sv-

EX

Cishek,Steve

rp

SEA

–

e

k

SV

Nw

Jeffress,Jeremy

rp

MIL

–

ER

k

sv-

Ziegler,Brad

rp

ARI

–

ER

SV

Ag

Rg

Hernandez,David

rp

PHI

–

e

KK

sv-

INJ

Nw

Bailey,Andrew

rp

PHI

–

e

k

sv-

INJ

Nw

Kela,Keone

rp

TEX

–

ER

K+

EX

O Day,Darren

rp

BAL

–

ER

K+

Romo,Sergio

rp

SF

–

ER

K+

Strop,Pedro

rp

CHC

–

ER

K+

Benoit,Joaquin

rp

SEA

–

ER

KK

Nw

Ag

Herrera,Kelvin

rp

KC

–

ER

KK

Madson,Ryan

rp

OAK

–

ER

KK

Nw

Pomeranz,Drew

rp

SD

–

ER

KK

INJ

Nw

Strickland,Hunter

rp

SF

–

ER

KK

EX

Watson,Tony

rp

PIT

–

ER

KK

Hoover,J.J.

rp

CIN

–

k

sv-

Rodney,Fernando

rp

SD

–

k

sv-

Ag

Dyson,Sam

rp

TEX

–

ER

k

e

Hendriks,Liam

rp

OAK

–

ER

k

Nw

Soria,Joakim

rp

KC

–

ER

k

inj-

Nw

Warren,Adam

rp

CHC

–

ER

k

Nw

Colome,Alexander

rp

TAM

–

e

k

e

Hudson,Daniel

rp

ARI

–

e

k

INJ

Jepsen,Kevin

rp

MIN

–

e

k

Quackenbush,K

rp

SD

–

e

k

e

Smith,Joe

rp

LAA

–

ER

Cingrani,Tony

rp

CIN

–

KK

INJ

e

Collmenter,Josh

rp

ARI

–

8D

Meyer,Alex

rp

MIN

–

-ER

EX

Rg

+

Velasquez,Vincent

SP

PHI

M

e

KK

EX

Miley,Wade

SP

SEA

F

e

Nw

Maeda,Kenta

SP

LA

M

e

k

EX

Gibson,Kyle

SP

MIN

F

7A

Davies,Zachary

SP

MIL

M

e

EX

Duffey,Tyler

SP

MIN

M

e

EX

Porcello,Rick

SP

BOS

M

e

inj-

7B

Lamb,John

SP

CIN

M

k

INJ

EX

Norris,Bud

SP

ATL

M

k

Nw

Nicasio,Juan

SP

PIT

M

k

Nw

Tropeano,Nicholas

SP

LAA

M

k

EX

Bassitt,Chris

SP

OAK

M

EX

Cain,Matt

SP

SF

M

-ER

INJ

Conley,Adam

SP

MIA

M

EX

Heston,Chris

SP

SF

M

e

Medlen,Kris

SP

KC

M

INJ

Niese,Jon

SP

PIT

M

Paxton,James

SP

SEA

M

INJ

e

7B

Rea,Colin

SP

SD

M

EX

Roark,Tanner

SP

WAS

M

Skaggs,Tyler

SP

LAA

M

INJ

e

Tomlin,Josh

SP

CLE

M

INJ

Young,Chris

SP

KC

M

-ER

Ag

Lyons,Tyler

SP

STL

–

e

k

e

9C

Snell,Blake

SP

TAM

–

e

k

EX

9D

De Leon,Jose

SP

LA

–

K+

EX

9D

Newcomb,Sean

SP

ATL

–

KK

EX

Cooney,Tim

SP

STL

–

e

EX

8C

Fulmer,Michael

SP

DET

–

e

EX

Hutchison,Drew

SP

TOR

–

k

8C

Almonte,Miguel

SP

KC

–

-ER

EX

9E

Bradley,Archie

SP

ARI

–

INJ

EX

7A

Cole,A.J.

SP

WAS

–

EX

8C

Gonzales,Marco

SP

STL

–

-ER

EX

Greene,Shane

SP

DET

–

-ER

e

7A

Johnson,Brian

SP

BOS

–

EX

Maurer,Brandon

SP

SD

–

INJ

Nova,Ivan

SP

NYY

–

INJ

Wright,Steven

SP

BOS

–

-ER

INJ

e

When it comes to providing usable ratings for farm players, BABS can only pull from usable history, which is thin at this level. I added the ratings from the Minor League Baseball Analyst to supplement the effort. These two-character ratings are on a scale of 1-10, with “1” being a minor league roster filler, “5” being a major league reserve player and “10” being a future Hall-of-Famer. The second character is an alpha probability rating with “A” being 90 percent probability of reaching potential and “E” being 10% probability of reaching potential. An “8B” player, for instance, has a 70 percent probability of being a solid regular. A “9C” has a 50 percent probability of being an elite player.

Pre-Draft Thoughts

I finished in 6th place last year. The league winner is dropped to the bottom of the reserve draft seeding, leaving me seeded 5th. Given the tendencies of the league, I knew that the first names off the board would be farm-eligible foreigners who were not available back in November, like Byung Ho Park and Kenta Maeda. These are players who are expected to be major-league ready and will hit the ground running yet will incur only $3 salary increases to keep each year. The rest of the first round would be populated with a combination of high ceiling prospects and players who won jobs in spring training. There may be a few undrafted closers too. Names I expect will go quickly include Blake Snell, Trevor Story, A.J. Reed, Jeremy Jeffress and Tyler Naquin.

While I’d love to be able to grab Park or Maeda, that’s unrealistic at pick #5. You can never have enough pitching in this league and my goal for the first round would be to grab the best pitcher to replace Norris. I narrowed my list down to Kyle Gibson, Vincent Velasquez or Juan Nicasio. Yes, I’m being swayed by spring training numbers, but the weakness of the player pool forces me to look for any edge I can.

But then I realized… wait a minute. It’s just one pitching slot. There is a long season ahead and this is the only chance I get to grab a high ceiling talent. If I have to fill Norris’ slot later in the draft with a mediocre arm for a short period, that’s a worthwhile sacrifice so I can shoot for a much better player with my 5th pick. Forget Kyle Gibson. I’ll be shooting for a Blake Snell or maybe Trevor Story.

I think this is the train of thought of someone who is slowly coming to terms with the reality that this may not yet be the year. Hmm, let’s see how this draft goes.

Post Draft Thoughts

Here are the players I was able to get, in order:

BATTER

Pos

Tm

PT

Pw

Sp

Av

Pk

Rg

Av

Inj

Ex

Nw

Pk

Ag

Rg

PITCHER

Pos

Tm

PT

Er

K

Sv

Pk

Rg

Er

Inj

Ex

Nw

Pk

Ag

Rg

Park,Byung Ho

3

MIN

F

PW

EX

Rickard,Joey

7

BAL

M

SB

a+

EX

Nicasio,Juan

SP

PIT

M

k

Nw

Phillips,Brett

8

MIL

P

p

SB

a

EX

Jepsen,Kevin

rp

MIN

–

e

k

Greene,Shane

SP

DET

–

-ER

e

Avila,Alex

23

CHW

M

p

+

Rg

AV

inj-

Nw

Iglesias,Jose

6

DET

F

a

e

Valbuena,Luis

53

HOU

M

PW

+

Fulmer,Michael

SP

DET

–

e

EX

Quinn,Roman

8

PHI

P

S+

EX

Strop,Pedro

rp

CHC

–

ER

K+

Quackenbush,K

rp

SD

–

e

k

e

Nova,Ivan

SP

NYY

–

INJ

Hutchison,Drew

SP

TOR

–

k

Rule #1, always: Expect the unexpected. I was astounded to have Park drop to me, so my first pick was a no-brainer. Who went before him? Kenta Maeda, Blake Snell, Yulieski Gurriel and Anderson Espinoza. Some of the teams lower in the standings had traded up to get earlier picks and grabbed some longer-term names. Park does not fill an immediate roster need – my corners are Encarnacion, Machado and Adrian Gonzalez – though he is a potential replacement for Carlos Beltran at UT. My $42 Gonzalez becomes possible trade bait, though.

The rest of the draft was a combination of plucking off some interesting prospects (my focus was on speedy guys), filling holes and making sure I had at least one backup at every position. I missed out on the remaining frontline closers, so I stockpiled a few speculations.

And now we play it out.

Okay.

Time for some self-assessment.

I love BABS, and she loves me. But like any great marriage, it’s not always daffodils and rainbows 24/7/366.

It is becoming apparent that BABS has its greatest utility in a mixed league format. The deeper the penetration into the player pool, the more that BABS may fall a bit short. The main reason for this is that the BABS ratings mostly identify above average skill.

For mixed leaguers, this is more of a feature than a flaw. You want to find players who have at least one positive Asset and a minimum of Liabilities. For most mixed formats — 8-team, 10,12, 15 even 18 — the delineation between above average and below average is a sharp line carved in stone. BABS likes that line.

However, once you have to plumb the depths of the pool for the best of the below average talent, BABS almost turns a blind eye. The only exceptions are those players with AV and ER Liabilities. But there is a huge wasteland of players in between, and you would have to think there is a way to tell which ones are better than the others.

BABS says no (she’s stubborn). The potential volatility of small stats makes projections even more faulty. Sure, we’d all like to be able to roster the 12-HR hitter instead of the 6-HR hitter, but nobody can predict a variance that amounts to just one piece of contact per month.

An embryonic version of BABS (Beta-BABS) tested well in 2015, but the final verdict on BABS 1.0 will rest in the results this October. Several of you wrote to tell me you would have never drafted the type of team that BABS pushed you towards this year. Frankly, I hate my Tout Wars team too. (There, I said it.) But maybe that’s a good thing. Because the draft rosters we’ve liked better in the past haven’t necessarily resulted in the long-term fantasy dynasties that we all set out to achieve.

Good luck to those drafting this weekend. Starting next week, I’ll take a stab at using BABS to project the pennant races, describe a visit with a fantasy curmudgeon and then jump into some in-season content.