Deconstructing the Foundation Rounds
This year, members have access to all the columns I write for ESPN Insider. They will appear here every Thursday or Friday. Many will include a BABS-relevant postscript. Enjoy.
The foundation of your fantasy baseball roster starts in the first three rounds, or with players purchased for $20-plus in auction leagues. These should be the easiest players to identify; after all, they are today’s top talents. But history shows that there is an extraordinary amount of year-to-year turnover, which can sabotage our best efforts.
Anyone who has drafted Giancarlo Stanton (pictured) or Andrew McCutchen the last two years knows what I’m talking about.
But we can do a better job of identifying the players with the best chance of returning fair value at the top of the draft board. It comes down to separating players into four general groups.
Group 1: Veteran Elite
These are the proven players who consistently post elite numbers every year. You know these guys; they are no-brainers when they drop to you.
Group 2: New Elite
These are players who posted elite numbers for the first time last season. They may have skyrocketed up from obscurity or taken a more gradual developmental path. Point is, they could be facing some regression.
Group 3: Possible Rebounds
These are players who have posted elite numbers in the past, but fell off last season, due to underperformance, injury or random chance. These players own their track record, and given a change in circumstances, could return to form.
Group 4: New Risers
These are players who have not posted elite numbers yet, but have shown enough potential that drafters are willing to speculate on their upside. Recency bias tends to drive these expectations, along with a healthy dose of wishful thinking and fear of missing out.
Here is the great thing about these groups… research in the 2017 Baseball Forecaster shows that they form a high level hierarchy of how players tend to fare during the season.
Last year’s Average Draft Position (ADP) top 30 yielded the following results:
A v e r a g e Group No. ADP$ Earnings Net ===== ==== ==== ======== ==== 1 Veterans 9 $32 $29 -$3 2 New elite 10 $31 $27 -$5 3 Rebounds 7 $28 $19 -$9 4 New risers 4 $27 $13 -$14
No. is the number of players who fell into each group. ADP$ are each player’s ADP rank converted to a 15-team mixed 5×5 Rotisserie value. Earnings are what these players actually earned in roto value. Net is the difference between those two.
Yes, the sample sizes are small, but the players who fell into each group made sense. And yes, all our picks were losers, on average – that’s the nature of the beast – but you stood a better chance of retaining some value the higher up in the hierarchy that you targeted your picks.
It’s good advice, but that’s not how players are being drafted this spring. Here are the current top 45 players, according to the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, and where they fall in the hierarchy.
Group 1 – Veteran Elite
In 2016, we had our best report card since 2008, with seven of our first 15 picks returning Top 15 value. So the list of Group 1 veterans is long. It is led by Mike Trout, who notched his fifth straight Top 10 finish and is ranked No. 1 for the third straight year. Jose Altuve (3), Clayton Kershaw (5), Nolan Arenado (6), Paul Goldschmidt (7), Manny Machado (8), Max Scherzer (11), Josh Donaldson (12) and Miguel Cabrera (14) comprise this year’s vet-heavy Top 15.
That is a good thing. Stability at the top makes our job easier. But there are some very nice veteran targets in the second and third rounds, some of whom could be defensible as first round picks.
Charlie Blackmon (16) is just a tad outside this group, but three straight $30 seasons certainly merits first round consideration. Joey Votto (22) is one of five firstbasemen going early, as is Edwin Encarnacion (25). Both are stable picks as well.
Chris Sale (21), Corey Kluber (23) and Starling Marte (24) are stable second-rounders, and Robinson Cano (30) follows up well after finishing No. 25 last year. I’ll include Jon Lester (36) in this group, even though his ADP is a big drop-off from last year’s 16th ranked earnings. Similarly, Nelson Cruz (41) and Justin Verlander (42) still merit consideration as stable picks despite finishing higher last year. Johnny Cueto (44) rounds out this group.
Group 2 – New Elite
Mookie Betts (2) leads the new elite, having earned 2016’s most roto dollars, a jump from No 29 in 2015. Other current first-rounders are Kris Bryant (4) and Madison Bumgarner (15).
In the second and third rounds are more of 2016’s first-time stars: Jonathan Villar (20), Freddie Freeman (26), Xander Bogaerts (27), Francisco Lindor (28), Brian Dozier (34) and Daniel Murphy (37). Without a longer-term track record, these players are slightly riskier to own.
Group 3 – Possible Rebounds
The next level begins with the biggest high-risk, high reward player, Bryce Harper. Currently going No. 9, drafters are counting on a return to his 2015 form. A rebound is probably a safe bet; a return to the Top 10 is riskier.
Jake Arrieta (31) was baseball’s top roto earner in 2015, then dropped to No. 53 last year. It’s been four years since Yu Darvish (33) finished as high as No. 27 but his current ADP is a huge jump from last year’s No. 228.
Drafters are hoping A.J. Pollock (35) is healthy; his No. 5 rank in 2015 is driving his ADP. It seems like Giancarlo Stanton (38) has become a perennial rebound candidate but drafters can’t forget his Top 10 finish in 2014.
Top-ranked catcher Buster Posey’s current No. 40 ADP doesn’t offer much bounce from last year’s No. 46 finish, but he’s never finished higher than No. 20 (2012). Drafters are pushing David Price (44) and Dee Gordon (45) to rebound from their respective No. 108 and No. 241 finishes last year.
Group 4 – New Risers
The key criteria for this group is that these players are currently being drafted far higher than they’ve ever previously finished.
Leading them is Trea Turner (10), who finished his partial 2016 at No 55. Anthony Rizzo’s (13) career path has seen consistent, though gradual growth, but he only finished No. 34 and No. 20 the past two years.
Carlos Correa (17) was a new riser last year at No. 6 but finished No. 72; drafters are still optimistic. Noah Syndergaard (18) is moving into elite levels after finishing No. 58 in 2016. Corey Seager was drafted No. 58 last year, finished 37th and is now being pushed to No. 19. Trevor Story (29) is getting into the Top 30 despite finishing just No. 111 last year. George Springer (32) and Rougned Odor (39) are both getting drafted at least 20 spots higher than their previous high finishes.
Most of these players are future stars; it’s their draft spots that are questionable. I still stand by the oft-advised adage: “Never pay for a level of performance a player has not previously achieved.”
BABScape: The BABS ratings offer a similar take on these 45 players. Weigh the assets and liabilities when making your picks. Here they are, in ADP order. Notes follow.
| ASSETS | LIAB | ||||||||||
| BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | Av | Inj | Ex | ||
| ADP | PITCHER | Pos | Tm | PT | Er | K | Sv | Er | Inj | Ex | |
| 1 | Trout,Mike | 8o | LAA | F | P+ | s | AV | ||||
| 2 | Betts,Mookie | 9o | BOS | F | p | SB | A+ | inj- | |||
| 3 | Altuve,Jose | 4 | HOU | F | s | A+ | |||||
| 4 | Bryant,Kris | 5o7 | CHC | F | P+ | AV | |||||
| 5 | Kershaw,Clayton | SP | LA | F | E+ | K+ | inj- | ||||
| 6 | Arenado,Nolan | 5 | COL | F | P+ | AV | |||||
| 7 | Goldschmidt,Paul | 3 | ARI | F | PW | AV | |||||
| 8 | Machado,Manny | 56 | BAL | F | PW | AV | |||||
| 9 | Harper,Bryce | 9o | WAS | F | PW | a | inj- | ||||
| 10 | Turner,Trea | o84 | WAS | F | p | SB | AV | EX | |||
| 11 | Scherzer,Max | SP | WAS | F | ER | K+ | inj- | ||||
| 12 | Donaldson,Josh | 5 | TOR | F | PW | AV | inj- | ||||
| 13 | Rizzo,Anthony | 3 | CHC | F | PW | AV | |||||
| 14 | Cabrera,Miguel | 3 | DET | F | P+ | A+ | inj- | ||||
| 15 | Bumgarner,Madison | SP | SF | F | ER | KK | |||||
| 16 | Blackmon,Charlie | 8o | COL | F | p | s | AV | inj- | |||
| 17 | Correa,Carlos | 6 | HOU | F | p | AV | |||||
| 18 | Syndergaard,Noah | SP | NYM | F | ER | K+ | |||||
| 19 | Seager,Corey | 6 | LA | F | PW | AV | e | ||||
| 20 | Villar,Jonathan | 65 | MIL | F | SB | a | |||||
| 21 | Sale,Chris | SP | BOS | F | e | KK | |||||
| 22 | Votto,Joey | 3 | CIN | F | P+ | A+ | |||||
| 23 | Kluber,Corey | SP | CLE | F | ER | KK | |||||
| 24 | Marte,Starling | o7 | PIT | F | S+ | AV | |||||
| 25 | Encarnacion,Edwin | 3 | CLE | F | P+ | AV | |||||
| 26 | Freeman,Freddie | 3 | ATL | F | P+ | AV | |||||
| 27 | Bogaerts,Xander | 6 | BOS | F | s | a | |||||
| 28 | Lindor,Francisco | 6 | CLE | F | s | AV | |||||
| 29 | Story,Trevor | 6 | COL | F | P+ | a | INJ | EX | |||
| 30 | Cano,Robinson | 4 | SEA | F | p | AV | |||||
| 31 | Arrieta,Jake | SP | CHC | F | ER | k | |||||
| 32 | Springer,George | o9 | HOU | F | PW | inj- | |||||
| 33 | Darvish,Yu | SP | TEX | F | ER | K+ | INJ | ||||
| 34 | Dozier,Brian | 4 | MIN | F | PW | s | a | ||||
| 35 | Pollock,A.J. | 8o | ARI | F | p | SB | AV | INJ | |||
| 36 | Lester,Jon | SP | CHC | F | ER | k | |||||
| 37 | Murphy,Daniel | 43 | WAS | F | p | A+ | |||||
| 38 | Stanton,Giancarlo | o9 | MIA | F | P+ | a | INJ | ||||
| 39 | Odor,Rougned | 4 | TEX | F | p | a | – | ||||
| 40 | Posey,Buster | 2 | SF | F | p | AV | |||||
| 41 | Cruz,Nelson | 0o9 | SEA | F | P+ | AV | |||||
| 42 | Verlander,Justin | SP | DET | F | e | KK | |||||
| 43 | Cueto,Johnny | SP | SF | F | ER | k | inj- | ||||
| 44 | Price,David | SP | BOS | F | ER | KK | |||||
| 45 | Gordon,Dee | 4 | MIA | F | S+ | a | |||||
The best way to see the impact is to pick an asset group and see where all the players are being drafted. For instance, look how the (PW,AV) group is split up. See how better-skilled (P+,AV) players are going later than some lesser-skilled groups. And look at all the liabilities in the Top 16 and then how the second round is almost free of major risks. Fascinating stuff.
This comment fits as well here as anywhere: I used BABS last year and my experience was that I assembled a first class pitching staff by focusing on ER, KK but had much less success with my offense. In short my pitchers came much closer to hitting their ER, KK predictions than did the offense come to their PW, AV predictions. As you evaluated last year’s BABS, do you find my experience typical, or an aberration?
Neither. BABS’ ratings cover a wide range of possible performances – THAT is the typical part. Unfortunately, that means sometimes a sub-group of players on your roster may fall at the lower end of a range. Which group that might be is completely random.
Ron :
In reviewing last seasons BABS sheets, entering the season, Mookie Betts only liablity was an “e”. He played 158 games last season and in the offseason, had his knee scoped (not totally uncommon these days). I’ve seen no spring training blurbs regarding any kinds of new injuries, and he appears to be getting regular work in. Is the offseason knee scope the cause of the “inj-” or is there something I have missed that is more obvious. If the scope is the case and Betts has no spring training issues, would the “inj-” be removed or is BABS still considering an element of uncertainty going forward.
Per Rotowire, “Betts had an arthroscopy, a chondroplasty, and a loose body removal performed on his right knee.” Yes, it’s fairly common; BABS is just being cautious. If there are no problems during this month, the inj- will probably be removed.
Well, maybe that sub-group of under-performers was not COMPLETELY random–depending on the degree of risk associated with them. I had a similar glitch with my offense last year because I did not take risk into account. I assembled an outfield of Justin Upton, Corey Dickerson and Michael Conforto, which just about did me in. My other offensive players pretty much lived up to their billing–which included less risk up front. So this year risk is a crucial component to my strategy–not at all secondary to the assets categories, but commensurate with them–which in turn means that (I hope) my team will not be randomly good or bad. Predictably good is what I’m shooting for. But then, I’ve always been an optimist.
I thought the inj/INJ designations were based purely on time spent on the DL the year before, at least as explained in the book. Is it broader than that? I know Murphy missed a good portion of last September’s games due to a glute injury, but he never went on the DL because of roster expansion and keeping him “active” for a potential few ABs for a batting title. But no inj liability for him.
We try to stay on top of the injuries during non-DL times, so it’s not only DL days.
Well, OF COURSE risk is a factor. That’s why it is a vital part of the balance sheet. When you wrote that your offense under-performed, I assumed you meant, “all things being equal on the Liabilities side of the ledger.” If you draft a group of players with more risk, I would expect different results.
Ron,
I wasn’t planning on asking for roster management, but I’m having a tough time deciding on some keepers heading into this year. Just for reference, I am in a 12 team NL only 4×4 (no Whip, no Runs) and need to get down to 15 by auction. ‘B’ Players I control for this year and next, while ‘A’ players this is their final year. Wondering who you would cut to get down to the maximum 15. If you advise more than 5 to cut, I’d take those under advisement as well. Thank you, hoping my 2nd year of BABS moves me from a 3rd place to 1st place this year!
Tom Murphy C | COL $1.00 B
J.T. Realmuto C | MIA $10.00 A
Tommy Joseph 1B | PHI $6.00 B
Howie Kendrick 2B,OF | PHI $9.00 B
Ryan Schimpf 2B | SD $2.00 B
Zack Cozart SS | CIN $4.00 A
Matt Carpenter 1B,2B,3B | STL $27.00 B
Yoenis Cespedes OF | NYM $32.00 A
Alex Dickerson OF | SD $11.00 B
Dexter Fowler OF | STL $21.00 B
Odubel Herrera OF | PHI $2.00 A
Roman Quinn OF | PHI $3.00 B
Chris Herrmann C | ARI $4.00 B
Madison Bumgarner P | SF $33.00 A
Jon Lester P | CHC $24.00 A
Jerad Eickhoff P | PHI $2.00 B
Robbie Ray P | ARI $5.00 B
Shawn Kelley P | WAS $1.00 B
Derek Law P | SF $1.00 B
Hector Rondon P | CHC $1.00 B
Context helps in keeper evaluations because my answer would be different depending upon whether you were planning to contend or rebuild. I see this as a bubble team – a few good pieces short. Who would be available in the draft? Short of all that info, I’d cut Kendrick, Cozart, Herrmann, Law, Rondon.
I do plan to contend, and I don’t have all the names of who would be available yet as we have a late draft the first weekend after opening day. Our cuts are due a week before that date. I guess my next question would be, since I realistically wouldn’t expect you to go thru all available players the week prior to my draft, as an idea though some players available at this point are:
Charlie Blackmon CF | COL
Joey Votto 1B | CIN
Daniel Murphy 2B | WAS
Giancarlo Stanton RF | MIA
Buster Posey C | SF
Andrew McCutchen CF | PIT
Carlos Gonzalez RF | COL
Ian Desmond CF | COL
Gregory Polanco RF | PIT
Justin Turner 3B | LAD
Maikel Franco 3B | PHI
Adam Eaton RF | WAS
Joc Pederson CF | LAD
Yasiel Puig RF | LAD
Neil Walker 2B | NYM
Logan Forsythe 2B | LAD
Curtis Granderson RF | NYM
Orlando Arcia SS | MIL
Matt Wieters C | WAS
Jason Heyward RF | CHC
Eric Thames LF | MIL
Jake Arrieta SP | CHC
Jacob deGrom SP | NYM
Kyle Hendricks SP | CHC
Wade Davis RP | CHC
Matt Harvey SP | NYM
Carlos Martinez SP | STL
Jameson Taillon SP | PIT
Anthony DeSclafani SP | CIN
Joe Ross SP | WAS
Taijuan Walker SP | ARI
Neftali Feliz RP | MIL
Addison Reed RP | NYM
Carter Capps RP | SD
Greg Holland RP | COL
Bartolo Colon SP | ATL
Michael Wacha SP | STL
Will Smith RP | SF
Koji Uehara RP | CHC
Pedro Strop RP | CHC
Jeanmar Gomez RP | PHI
That’s about the top 20 available offensively and pitching respectfully. I’m sure more to come. As you said “a few good pieces short,” what kind of pieces should I be targeting? Not necessarily by name, but rather category weaknesses I’d need to focus on, or however you’d like to explain it.
Well, you’re short on power, you need Roman Quinn to hit the ground running to contend in SBs, and aside from Kelley, you have no saves. So, Votto, CarGo, Franco are obvious power sources, with Stanton a nice speculation if his price is right. Polanco, maybe Eaton for speed. And really, none of the stable frontline closers will be available? You’ll have to do a bunch of speculating on the Addison Reeds and (cough) Jenmar Gomezes(/cough).
I had Jeanmar last year and he was surprisingly nice at $4 last year. I’m hoping a couple are cut in time for the draft. If not, I believe 2-3 teams will have 3 closers and 1-2 always punt closers which would put me in middle of pack for saves if Kelley comes thru. Thanks for the advice, I’ll pass along my team when the draft is over, and see if I plugged the holes well!
ok, I am new here so forgive me if this is a stupid question. On the list above you have Jose Altuve ranked #3. But on the overall excel list you have him way down. Is the overall list not a suggested order or how am I supposed to interpret these?
Thanks
This list above is in ADP order. That’s how the market is drafting them, not how you should be drafting them. The master list combines skill and market.
I didn’t like taking Early Risers in Round 1 before, and even less now. I did take Trea Turner in one NL-only league with pick 9 in a 10-team league. It’s not a good bet based on the percentages above, but in my defense there are a lot of stolen bases concentrated on a few players in the NL and that helped pressure that decision. Hamilton would’ve been available in Round 3, and I picked up Nunez in Round 5, but of course I didn’t know any of that when I picked Turner. Anyway, for others getting sobering news with this story, you’re not alone.
Correa matched his year 1 HR and SB totals in year 2 with twice as many AB. If Turner hits 13 HR, steals 33 bases and hits .290, I would be disappointed, but would still feel that I’d have a chance to win the league.
Almost embarrassed to say that Team 10 in my league took Blackmon and Marte right after me. My 2nd pick was Syndergaard who is also on the list of Early Risers so I guess I have the team that goes big or goes home.