Stats
Pitcher attrition and bullpen fallout
Here is my ESPN piece for this week. As of today, 41 percent of the pre-season Top 300 have been disabled, demoted or designated for assignment. That’s only about 10 players away from the 44 percent attrition accumulated over a full season in 2010. We are on pace for about 70 percent turnover of our…
Read MoreThe dwindling 200-IP pitcher
This week’s BABS-enhanced ESPN piece. Here is the stat for today: In 2016, there were 61 pitchers from among the ADP Top 300 who spent some time on the disabled list. Just 11 weeks into this season, there are already 52 pitchers from the Top 300 who’ve spent some time on the shelf. That stat…
Read MoreIs a .400 BABIP sustainable?
My ESPN column for the week. Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is one of those leading indicator metrics that can identify potential outlying performances. It is not a perfect gauge, but extremes are rarely sustainable. Pitchers’ BABIPs tend to regress to something near .300. Batters’ BABIPs tend to regress to their own established…
Read MoreFirst round churn after 9 weeks
This is my ESPN Insider column for the week. There is a harsh reality we must buy into: about two-thirds of the players we draft in the first round will not earn back their draft spot. In a 15-team league, that means 10 owners will take a loss on their first round pick; only five…
Read MoreTrading Trout: Should you liquidate a long-term injury?
This is a special bonus ESPN Insider column for the week. When Freddie Freeman was injured two weeks ago, his fantasy owners cried out in agony: “He’s the core of my offense! What am I going to do?! My team is toast!” As a Freeman owner myself, I felt the pain. I paid a hefty…
Read MoreNot-so-bold June projections
This is my ESPN Insider column for the week. A month ago, I wrote a column called, “No-so-bold May projections.” The focus was on players whose underlying metrics pointed to a change in fortunes and a rough time frame for when those fortunes might change. I received a bunch of good feedback on that piece,…
Read MoreEric Thames and skills ownership
This is my ESPN Insider column for the week. Twenty years ago, I coined a simple aphorism: “Once a player displays a skill, he owns it.” It came about from experiencing the 1996 breakout performance of Henry Rodriguez. After four nondescript seasons in the majors, Rodriguez exploded in 1997 by hitting 36 home runs, driving…
Read MoreNot-so-bold May projections
This is my ESPN Insider column for the week. It was written on Monday, posted on Tuesday. So, April is now over. Thank goodness for that. We are living in a brand new world where last year’s Cy Young contenders are sporting 5.00-plus ERAs and the Colorado Rockies are in first place. Intuitively, we know…
Read MorePLAYER PREMONITION #170403
Every so often, something about a player will rise to my consciousness. A hidden indicator. A revelation that wakes me up at night. I’ll call these periodic posts Player Premonitions. We’ll open this new feature with a starting pitcher. Seven years ago, this pitcher won 18 games with a 2.97 ERA in nearly 200 innings,…
Read MorePremonitions, and other final brain flakes
At this time of year, everyone is out with their bold predictions. For some writers, it’s an exercise in tossing spaghetti against a wall to see what sticks. At Baseball HQ, I used to conduct what I called a Longshot Caucus, which was a bit more analytically sound, linking together some conditional possibilities. For me,…
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