BABS sweet-talks trades: Part 2, PItchers

by Greg Fishwick

The MLB non-waiver trade deadline is one week away. Are you a buyer or a seller? Either way, it’s time to get a move on—most MLB teams will have played 100 games.

Below are some potential trade targets among pitchers from the BABS database. We’ll put them in an example scenario to demonstrate how you can use this process to your advantage. Depending upon your league rules, standings, penetration into the player pool, FAAB usage, trading tendencies, and other factors, these examples may be trade targets for either contenders/buyers or rebuilders/sellers.

We’ll skip over obvious targets such as All-Star Game starters Chris Sale and Max Scherzer and closers Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen. The lists will, of necessity, include only some of the surprising examples you can find by studying the database with your league context in mind. In each asset category below, a semicolon separates the SP and RP examples.

Earned Runs E+ (Extreme Impact, Top 10%): Mike Foltynewicz, Johnny Cueto, Freddy Peralta; Seranthony Dominguez, Amir Garrett, Kyle Barraclough, Raisel Iglesias, Bud Norris (pictured).

Earned Runs ER: (Significant Impact, Top 25%): Jack Flaherty, Michael Clevinger, Tyler Skaggs; Joakim Soria, Carl Edwards, Fernando Rodney.

Strikeouts K+ (Extreme Impact, Top 10%): Freddy Peralta, Robby Ray; Seranthony Dominguez, Carl Edwards.

Strikeouts KK: (Significant Impact, Top 25%): Mike Foltynewicz, Jack Flaherty, Dylan Bundy; Joakim Soria, Amir Garrett, Kyle Barraclough, Raisel Iglesias, Bud Norris, Fernando Rodney, Keone Kela.

Saves SV (30+ saves pace): Raisel Iglesias, Bud Norris, Fernando Rodney, Keone Kela.

Saves sv-: (10-29 saves pace): Seranthony Dominguez, Kyle Barraclough, Joakim Soria.

Using just the names above, let’s review a hypothetical trade between a contender and a rebuilder that works for both teams. For context, let’s say it’s a 12-team mixed league with standard 5×5 roto categories (which can work for head-to-head leagues too).

The imaginary league adds $10/year in salary for each player kept, and limits keepers to six. The contender is in second place, five category points behind the leader, with comfortable margins in W and WHIP, and attainable points in ERA, K, and SV. The rebuilder is out of the running, and considers the following players trade chips:

Robby Ray          (F)   e,K+          $25
Mike Foltynewicz    M    E+,KK         $20
Johnny Cueto       (M)   E+,k          $20
Kyle Barraclough         E+,KK,sv-     $15
Joakim Soria             ER,KK,sv-     $10
Carl Edwards             ER,K+          $5
Fernando Rodney          ER,KK,SV       $5

The rebuilder has identified the following keeper targets on the contender’s roster:

Mike Clevinger     F     ER,k          $20
Dylan Bundy        F     e,KK          $15
Jack Flaherty      M     ER,KK         $10
Freddy Peralta     M     E+,K+          $5
Tyler Skaggs       M     ER,k           $5
Raisel Iglesias          E+,KK,SV      $20
Keone Kela               e,KK,SV       $10
Amir Garrett             E+,KK          $5
Seranthony Dominguez     E+,K+,sv-      $5

The contender wants a net gain of at least five category points from among ERA, K, and/or SV. The rebuilder has three relievers available who can help in all three categories — Barraclough, Soria, and Rodney. Rodney proves too difficult to sell, and the contender has more faith in Barraclough than in Soria, so Barraclough becomes the centerpiece of the deal. The most compelling RP keeper target for the rebuilder is Seranthony Dominguez, but the contender won’t part with him. The rebuilder pivots to Kela because he appears to have the closer role in Texas and is less expensive than Iglesias, who may be traded by the Reds and land in a set-up role. The contender agrees, but needs a larger net gain than the one-for-one exchange can create.

Trade negotiations focus on adding starting pitchers to the deal. The contender takes Clevinger and Flaherty off the table and gives the rebuilder a choice of one from among Bundy, Peralta, and Skaggs. In return, the rebuilder removes Foltynewicz from discussions, allowing the contender to choose between Ray and Cueto.

To complete the exercise, imagine yourself each role and decide who your second pitcher would be in both cases. Now go forth into your own leagues and let the offers fly!

Greg Fishwick is a regular contributor to the BaseballHQ.com weekly Baseball HQ Radio podcast. He recently slipped to sixth place in the BABL exhibition league, 13.5 points off the pace. He has founded and competes in several other fantasy leagues. Greg also participates in panels and provides fantasy roster analysis at First Pitch Arizona each fall.