BABS Sweet-Talks Trades: Part 1, Batters
by Greg Fishwick
The MLB non-waiver trade deadline is two weeks away. The All-Star break is a traditional time to assess your team, and—just like a real-life GM—decide whether you’re a buyer or a seller.
If you are in a mono league and think you’re not a buyer, think again. Study the standings, the category weaknesses of the contenders, and their remaining FAAB. Can you out-bid the contenders, acquire a prized player who changes leagues via trade, and flip him to the contender who offers you the best rebuilding package? There are many possible paths to success. Now is the time to take advantage of your league standings and rules on trades, keepers, contract extensions, salaries, FAAB, and related matters.
If you’re a contender, conventional wisdom says to concentrate on your counting stats after the All-Star break. Identify your BABS asset category weaknesses, review the BABS database, and target the players you want to take you to the top. If you’re looking for help at certain positions, make a second pass through your targets and screen for the positions you need.
If you’re a rebuilder, make a list of players on your roster who are too costly to keep next season or cannot be extended. Go to the BABS database and note the asset category strengths of those players. Then examine the standings. Which contenders need help in the categories represented on your list? Review their rosters, look for potential keepers, and make your offers. And when you make those offers, be sure to tell the contenders just how many category points you think the deal would add for them.
Potential keepers to look for are youngsters and minor leaguers with solid BABS ratings but not currently getting playing time. Use both the current BABS database as well as the minor league BABS ratings to prospect for future talent.
Here are some potential trade targets among batters from the BABS database. Then we’ll run through an example scenario to demonstrate how you can use that process to your advantage. Depending upon your league rules, standings, penetration into the player pool, FAAB usage, trading tendencies, and other factors, these examples may be trade targets for either contenders/buyers or rebuilders/sellers. We’ll skip over obvious targets such as Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. The lists will of necessity include only some of the examples you can find by studying the data bases with your league contexts in mind.
Speed S+ (Extreme Impact, Top 10%): Javier Baez, Brandon Nimmo, Travis Jankowski, Ketel Marte, Michael Taylor, Harrison Bader, Alen Hanson, Leury Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier.
Speed SB: (Significant Impact, Top 25%): AJ Pollock, Nick Castellanos, Addison Russell, Yolmer Sanchez, Josh Harrison, Cesar Hernandez, Ehire Adrianza, Austin Meadows.
Power P+ (Extreme Impact, Top 10%): AJ Pollock, Jesus Aguilar, Trevor Story, Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, Max Muncy, Curtis Granderson, Randall Grichuk, Matt Davidson.
Power PW: (Significant Impact, Top 25%): Javier Baez, Brandon Nimmo, Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez, Brandon Belt, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Joc Pederson, Mitch Haniger, Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Seager, Paul DeJong, Max Stassi.
Average A+ (Extreme Impact, Top 10%): Jesus Aguilar, Jean Segura, Andrelton Simmons, Scooter Gennett, Brandon Crawford, Jacob Realmuto, Michael Brantley, Nick Markakis.
Average AV: (Significant Impact, Top 25%): Javier Baez, AJ Pollock, Nick Castellanos, Travis Jankowski, Matt Adams, Eugenio Suarez, Brandon Belt, David Peralta, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Joc Pederson, Nomar Mazara, Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera.
Using just the names above, let’s review a hypothetical trade between a contender and a rebuilder that works for both teams. For context, let’s say it’s a 12-team mixed league with standard 5×5 roto categories (which can work for head-to-head leagues too).
The imaginary league adds $10/year in salary for each player kept, and limits keepers to six. The contender is in second place, five category points behind the leader, with comfortable margins in R and RBI and attainable points in HR, SB, and BA. The rebuilder is out of the running, and owns the following players:
Javier Baez F PW,S+,AV $20 AJ Pollock M P+,SB,AV $25 Addison Russell F SB,a $15 Matt Carpenter F P+,a $25 Brandon Belt F PW,s,AV $25 Kyle Seager F PW $15 Jacob Realmuto M p,A+ $15 Michael Brantley F A+ $20 Asdrubal Cabrera F p,AV $15
The rebuilder has identified the following keeper targets on the contender’s roster:
Brandon Nimmo M PW,S+,a $5 (pictured) Nick Castellanos F PW,SB,AV $10 Eddie Rosario F PW,AV $5 Matt Adams M P+,AV $5
Remember, the contender wants a net gain of at least five category points from among HR, SB, and/or BA. The rebuilder has three players who can help in all three categories—Baez, Pollock, and Belt. Baez plays full-time on a productive MLB team, so he becomes the centerpiece of the deal. Castellanos is the most attractive keeper target for the rebuilder, but the contender needs a larger net gain than a Castellanos-for-Baez exchange might bring.
The trade negotiations allow the rebuilder to choose between the two mid-time players (both of whom may get more playing time next season), because they would impact the net gains less than the full-time player (Rosario). The contender is allowed to choose between the two other players who can help in all three categories.
To complete the exercise, imagine yourself in each role and decide who your second player would be in both cases. Now go forth into your own leagues and let the offers fly!
Greg Fishwick is a regular contributor to the BaseballHQ.com weekly Baseball HQ Radio podcast. He currently holds onto fifth place in the BABL exhibition league, 12 points off the pace. He has founded and competes in several other fantasy leagues. Greg also participates in panels and provides fantasy roster analysis at First Pitch Arizona each fall.