BABS September 2018 Update – Pitchers

by Chris Doyle

It’s the final BABS update of the season and we’ve got plenty to talk about. Let’s dive right into the hurlers for some surprises, disappointments and everything in between.

Gerrit Cole (E+, K+) is officially a fantasy ace. He was a bit lucky in the first half (.256 BABIP, 83% strand rate, 2.52 ERA) and he’s since come back to earth a bit in the second half (.353 BABIP, 66% strand rate, 3.75 ERA), but the peripherals are consistent. He’s even managed to improve his walk and home run rates, which has resulted in an xFIP of 2.66 that’s nearly half a run lower than his first half xFIP of 3.10. Those who predicted that the move to Houston would unleash his full potential were dead right.

If it wasn’t for his team situation, Jacob deGrom (E+, KK) would be the runaway choice for the NL Cy Young Award, but there’s a chance he may not even reach double-digit wins. Here’s hoping the voters see the rest of the package: a league-leading 1.68 ERA and 224 strikeouts in 182 innings. The 30-year-old gets overlooked sometimes when the top hurlers are discussed but BABS has him right there with fantasy stud Justin Verlander.

Who’s been baseball’s top closer? The (E+, K+, SV) group is six deep but two names stick out above the rest: Blake Treinen and Edwin Diaz. Treinen is the real surprise here with a sub-1.00 ERA and WHIP and a massive jump from fewer than nine K/9 to nearly 12. Diaz, meanwhile, is challenging the single-season saves record of 62 set by Francisco Rodriguez in 2008, and has somehow been even better than his 1.93 ERA suggests (1.66 xFIP, 1.44 SIERA). Crazy strikeouts (15.4 K/9), improved control (2.2 BB/9 down from 4.4) and a sustainable BABIP and strand rate mean this is all real. At 24 years old, Diaz is a relief pitching monster.

It’s not often leaving Pittsburgh can be seen as a positive – especially when that pitcher moves to the AL East – but Tyler Glasnow (M, e, KK) owners are finally starting to see him realize his potential. Glasnow had been decent as a reliever with the Pirates but his true value was always as a starter. Since becoming part of the Rays rotation, Glasnow has notched a 3.23 ERA (3.32 xFIP) and 0.85 WHIP with 38 K and just 10 BB in 30.2 innings, raising his K-BB% from 15.6% to 24.3%. He’s getting strike one more often (62% versus just 52% in Pittsburgh) and getting hitters to chase with increased frequency as well. He’ll be a popular breakout pick for 2019.

The best way to describe the following tier is with a series of bandage emojis. Lance McCullers, Masahiro Tanaka (pictured) and Stephen Strasburg (M, e, KK) are all high-risk, high-reward pitchers on full display this season. McCullers has been the exact pitcher BABS projected him to be and Tanaka has traded some earned runs for strikeouts – not a terrible thing. Strasburg has underperformed in the earned runs department (rated an E+ in the category heading into 2018) but he’s the type of pitcher who can go on an insane run down the stretch. Just don’t be surprised if he goes down.

We won’t go into detail on the entire 15-man (e,k) group but it’s a handy reminder that you can get value late in drafts. It would have been hard to say that Carlos Martinez or Rich Hill belonged in the same group as Zach Wheeler or Joey Lucchesi, yet here we are. There’s a lot of talent to be found here at various price points to fill out the back of a fantasy rotation.

How do you roster a pitcher like Miles Mikolas (F, ER), who’s solid in run prevention but completely lacks a strikeout presence? Despite what you might think, it’s actually much easier to hide him in today’s game. Pair Mikolas with someone like Nick Pivetta or Sean Newcomb (M, k) and you’ve got a solid composite.

Clay Buchholz and Dereck Rodriguez (M, ER) have been surprises but for different reasons. Buchholz has seemingly salvaged his career in Arizona while Rodriguez has come out of nowhere to help stabilize the Giants rotation. With low BABIPs, high strand rates and unsustainable HR/FB rates, neither are solid bets to continue at their current pace.

Finally, what to make of Madison Bumgarner? He was as consistent and healthy as they come for years until a dirt bike accident prior to the 2017 season. It’s since taken him nearly two seasons to reach 200 IP, a number he routinely surpassed from 2011 through 2016. His 3.07 ERA looks fine, but under the surface are some troubling signs, including a diminished strikeout rate (7.8 K/9) and an uncharacteristic lack of command (career high 3.3 BB/9) that’s led to his worst WHIP since 2010. For now, chalk it up to him needing to get fully healthy and target him aggressively in the spring.