BABS September 2018 Update – Batters
by Patrick Cloghessy
The seeds of next year’s draft crop were sown this spring. On average, Christian Yelich (p,SB,A+) came off the board this year at pick 45. Yelich’s monstrous fantasy season, coupled with his (BABS-certified) skills are certain to drive his price much higher next season. The same can be said of Javier Baez (PW,S+,AV) with his 105 ADP, and Trevor Story (P+,SB,AV) at ADP 113. The bumper crop of fantasy stats yielded by these three will have greatly exceeded expectations by year’s end. It’s too early to say for sure, but BABS may see all three as decent bets to at least approximate their performance come 2019.
Conversely, pre-season expectations can also have a negative effect. Charlie Blackmon (p,a) has not been terrible, but those are not the assets of a consensus first rounder. The return on a Bryce Harper (PW) investment has left owners in the red. Both the St. Louis Cardinals and fantasy owners are smarting at the cost (ADP 48) it took to acquire Marcell Ozuna (a). Give BABS credit for being less optimistic than the marketplace on Harper and Ozuna. She liked Harper at the draft (PW,AV), just not as a first rounder. BABS had both Ozuna’s new team and regression risk accounted for in her Liabilities section. Expect to pay a lesser price for these players next season.
There are obviously numerous other players who fit the above categories. The larger point is that the marketplace, if history tells us anything, will react in a certain way. Players who exceed expectations rise, players who fail to meet them, tend to fall. Even players who lost time (and precious stats) to injury could see their draft prices drop next year. Psychology tells us that next year’s recency bias is already baked in. Here, we like to pride ourselves on not succumbing to our emotions. BABS helps us with that all along the way. Our emotional impulses have been tested all season by BABS’ monthly updates.
This month, BABS is telling us that it was possible that spending a high first round pick (ADP 5) on Trea Turner (S+,a) may have been wishful thinking. It is forever tempting to draft a player like Turner because we see his tantalizing ceiling. BABS saw his (e) risk at the draft. The truth is, well let Ron tell it. It is possible that Turner is settling in right alongside Starling Marte (S+,a). Both are dynamic fantasy assets. Both have tested the upper regions of ADP on different occasions. It remains to be seen exactly how BABS will see these players next season, but one could bet that they will be drafted in close proximity.
There is a sensational crop of third basemen, and an outfielder too, displaying hefty (PW,AV) assets. Without BABS, it may not be possible to see Nolan Arenado, Nick Castellanos (pictured), Eugenio Suarez, Matt Chapman, Justin Turner and Juan Soto in the same boat. But they are in it together, and next season, some of these will be underrated, some will be overrated. BABS will find the best values.
Following up on some players we touched on a while back, BABS finds Brandon Nimmo (PW,s,a) has been able maintain his skills over the course of the season. Harrison Bader (p,SB,a) has done similarly well with regular at bats. Stay tuned.
Finally, which players might comprise a list of first round bats for 2019? If we put their 2018 assets side-by-side with 2018 expectations, a clearer picture may emerge.
2018 ASSETS 2018 PRE-SEASON PLAYER $ ’18 Pw Sp Av Pw Sp Av ================== ===== === === === === === === Mookie Betts $46 PW SB A+ p s AV J.D. Martinez $46 P+ A+ P+ AV Jose Ramirez $43 p s A+ s A+ Trevor Story $39 P+ SB AV P+ Francisco Lindor $38 p AV s AV Javier Baez $38 PW S+ AV p s Christian Yelich $38 p SB A+ s AV Alex Bregman $34 p AV p s AV Mike Trout $34 P+ SB AV P+ s AV Manny Machado $33 PW s AV p AV Andrew Benintendi $31 p s AV p AV Trea Turner $30 S+ a p S+ AV
These are the top earners to date. This is the group, along with perennial top picks like Paul Goldschmidt and Arenado, that will likely populate the top end of the draft next season. Looking at BABS assets, we can draw the reasonable conclusion that speed plays. Of the three top bats without a speed asset, two of them entered the season with speed as one of their strengths. Both Francisco Lindor and Alex Bregman have provided stolen bases, but BABS just doesn’t see the speed skill. However, if we look at the big picture, we know that Bregman and Lindor have owned the speed skill in the past. We might see both players listed as BABS triple asset threats next season.