BABS May 2018 Update – Batters

by Chris Doyle

Access the first BABS update of the season here.

While we must remember that the small sample size caveat still exists, it’s nonetheless a fun and interesting exercise to try and spot the variances from pre-season rankings and attempt to explain or rationalize them.

Here are some early takes:

Humidor? What humidor?

A.J. Pollock has enjoyed perhaps the finest all-around start in baseball and BABS has rewarded him with a nifty little upgrade (P+, SB, A+). The D’Backs centerfielder hasn’t let the humidor affect his offensive game with a .300 AVG, 10 HR and 7 SB in his first 110 ABs, including a .338 AVG and 6 HR at Chase Field. Pollock has always had that power-speed profile but he’s already halfway to his career high of 20 HR set in 2015, which came over 673 plate appearances. The 26% HR/FB rate is sure to come down to earth, but there are some encouraging signs that point to a potentially less steep decline. He’s hitting the ball harder than ever (45% hard compared to a 35% career average) and in the air more often (41% fly balls versus 33 for his career). We know the speed (39 SB in 2015) and average (career .287 hitter) are legit; if he maintains some of the power and stays healthy, this is a top-10 hitter for 2018.

Oh right, that humidor

While Pollock has not been slowed by the humidor, Paul Goldschmidt certainly has, at least in terms of his output. As of this update, Goldschmidt was hitting just .255 despite a .371 BABIP. He’s batting just .196 and hasn’t hit a single one of his 4 HR at home at Chase Field. He’s also upped his strikeout rate to a career high 32% which is uncharacteristic for him. It’s important to remember sample sizes are still small, however, so while he’s temporarily lost his AV tag (P+, SB) and the humidor has seemingly suppressed his offense thus far, don’t throw in the towel just yet.

Value plays

Didi Gregorius has gotten a lot of the accolades, and for good reason. But there are a couple of sneaky value plays at SS displaying the same skills (PW, A+) that you might be able to nab in trade a lot less. Asdrubal Cabrera has posted a .327 AVG and .383 OBP with 5 HR through his first 107 AB, while Eduardo Escobar managed 4 HR in his first 91 AB to go along with a .308 AVG. Escobar in particular looks like a nice target hitting in the middle of a Twins offense that’s on the rise.

Two of a kind

It would have been ludicrous to think that these next two players would be grouped the same way but here we are. Bryce Harper and Ozzie Albies – yes, Ozzie Albies – are seen by BABS as having the same skills profile right now (PW, s, AV). Harper’s got the better on base skills but Albies also would have come much, much cheaper. Can Albies maintain this power surge that technically started late last season after his call-up? There are certainly some good signs that we looked at in a piece a few weeks ago right here.

When speed isn’t really speed

Perhaps the most interesting asset group is the (p, A+) group. One might be confused by Tommy Pham’s lack of a speed asset despite the six swipes and near top-50 Statcast sprint speed, but remember that stolen base success rate is a key component in this asset category. Pham was just 6-of-10 (60%) before the update, after going 25-for-32 last season (78%). Of course, as long as he keeps getting opportunities to run, the caught stealing numbers don’t matter in the majority of fantasy leagues. Perhaps they should?

The others in the group are far more similar. Much has been made about Jose Martinez’s hot start, proving that with consistent playing time he could be a legitimate fantasy contributor. But Max Kepler is someone who was also going late in drafts and still appears to be under the radar at this point. If you’re a Martinez owner, perhaps you try and sell high and instead look to Kepler to fill that void if he’s available.

Slow starters

Though still maintaining an (AV) asset, this group of full-timers consists of a few under-performers, including hitting savant Joey Votto (pictured). The veteran was abysmal in the season’s first few weeks and BABS has dropped his overall rating from (PW, A+) to (AV). This is likely just a blip; he’s already upped his average to .289 and his K/BB ratio remains in elite territory. His hard contact rate is actually up from last season (36% to 40%) and his line drive rate is an absurd 36%. He’ll be fine.

Other sluggish bats in this group include Jose Ramirez, who despite his seven homers still doesn’t have BABS convinced enough to award him even a (p) tag, and Corey Seager (We now know that his underwhelming April was likely influenced by a nagging elbow injury that’s forced him out for the remainder of the season.)

BABS also isn’t buying DJ LeMahieu’s power outbreak, and for good reason: His 19% HR/FB rate is nearly double his career high set back in 2016 when he hit 11 HR in 635 PA. He’s still a useful player, but don’t count on the power sticking around.

It’s hard not to go on forever with these analyses, but it’s critical to remember how early we still are in the grand scheme of things. With that said, who stands out to you in this first update?