BABS In-Season
The concept of assessing talent using broad measures, and balancing assets and liabilities, applies to all stages of the baseball season. Even though our drafts are over, the need to evaluate talent does not end.
BABS works just as hard during the season as in the weeks leading up to it. In some ways she is more relevant, particularly at this time of year. BABS says, “No! Stop! Don’t look at those stats! Look at the skills profile instead. No matter what numbers a player is putting up NOW, odds are his performance is going to be pulled in the direction of those Asset/Liability markers.” In fact, you might not even realize that the numbers a player is posting actually fit the BABS ratings perfectly. It’s tough not to be married to the numbers, but remember that BABS is your mistress.
Here are some general points to keep in mind:
Assets generally change slowly. If we’ve done a good job of evaluating each player’s skill during the pre-season, those ratings should still apply, barring any major change in circumstance. The broad skills groupings should also prevent overreaction to small sample sizes.
So don’t be taken in by apparently different performances from players who had possessed identical skills profiles on Draft Day. Ten days are a nearly irrelevant sample size. For instance:
BABS HR SB BA
------- -- -- ----
Mookie Betts p,SB,AV 2 2 .270
Starling Marte p,SB,AV 2 2 .306
Charlie Blackmon p,SB,AV 0 1 .185
Still the same player. We are taken in by these stats because this is all we have. Had these performances occurred in July, nobody would notice. Despite finishing at .291 last year, Betts posted a one-week batting average under .250 nine times. Marte batted over .300 eleven times (and under .250 eleven times). Blackmon batted under .200 four times; in fact, this .185 start looks remarkably similar to his .150 start last year. He followed that up with weeks of .364, .300, .389 and .400 (before dropping below .200 the following three weeks).
Players are inconsistent as a rule, and batting average is virtually impossible to pin down.
BABS can validate early performance. It comes as no surprise that the pre-superstar Trevor Story was rated [P+,SB] on the Assets side. But that rating is not a reflection of what he’s already done; it serves the important purpose of validating his early power outburst. BABS shows that comparable early performances by several other players may be sometimes less supportable.
HR BABS
-- ----
Trevor Story 7 P+
Robinson Cano 5 p
Josh Donaldson 4 P+
Nolan Arenado 4 P+
Chris Davis 4 P+
Eugenio Suarez 4 -
Marcus Semien 4 -
Which power displays seem most supportable? Donaldson, Arenado and Davis for sure. Some might argue that Cano has a history of better power numbers, and thus his early performance could be sustainable. That’s certainly fair. But if I had to pick which player will likely hit more home runs this year, I’ll still give the edge to those with a P+ rating.
As for Suarez and Semien, it would be astounding for their current displays to continue. Suarez never hit more than 10 in any minor league season and the 13 he hit last year was not supported by his power metrics. Semien’s potential is a little more optimistic. Still, I’d take the under on 20 HRs for both players.
Of course, the Assets don’t tell the whole story. In Story’s case, his [AV,EX] Liabilities show that caution is still warranted. There is batting average downside and his lack of experience widens the error bar on our expectations. Not that it means anything after just eight games, but:
AB HR AVG
-- -- ---
First 4 games 19 6 .368
Second 4 games 16 1 .313
And of course, he’s hitting .381 in Coors, .286 on the road (though all at Arizona’s Chase Field, which is still a pretty good hitters park).
Suarez and Semien both own some experience risk [e] as well.
Those risk ratings are important. Performances that do vary from expectation will often be explained by a player’s Liability ratings.
Playing Time will be volatile. While Assets change slowly, playing time can change fast. As much as BABS attempts to sort playing time into broad categories – full-time, mid-time and part-time – circumstances affecting roles will push players around all season.
This comment was just posted:
“Ron, is it too early to downgrade Adam Lind from F to M in playing time? His terrible start to the season has opened the door for Lee, who pinch hit for him yesterday against a lefty.”
I’m not sure I’d make a change based on his alleged “terrible start” — Lind batted .100 or less over the course of a week three times last year and nobody noticed — but making a PT adjustment based on a real change in circumstances is justifiable. To wit…
Story opened as a part-timer and is now probably mid-time status, at least until we know how long Jose Reyes will be out. The long-term losses of A.J. Pollock, Kyle Schwarber (pictured above) and even Andre Ethier mean that other players gained significant chunks of playing time to backfill the voids. One of those, Jorge Soler, has likely moved up from mid-time to full-time status. Glen Perkins’ DL stint means that Kevin Jepsen is suddenly in line for saves (assuming the Twins can win a ballgame).
This is going to continue all season. That’s why it’s important to look at the Asset ratings. They ignore playing time and focus solely on the underlying skill. They tell you that Soler’s Assets now potentially rank him alongside other [PW,a] players, such as Marcell Ozuna and Carlos Beltran. Jepsen’s Assets now rank him alongside the only other [e,k] reliever, Steve Cishek, but also similarly-skilled starters such as Scott Kazmir, Mike Fiers and Joe Ross.
Call-ups are challenging. Promoted minor leaguers are problematic because the impetus for the promotion is often a small sample of minor league performance. Logically, you can’t trust it, but teams still make decisions based on 100 AB or 50 IP, or less.
For BABS, call-ups fall into two groups:
The first group is composed of players who BABS was able to rate during the pre-season. Those ratings were based on a large enough pool of performance data to be credible, so my preference would be to continue to rely on those ratings in the early-going, at least until the player amasses a sufficient performance sample that supports or refutes the original rating.
The second group is composed of players who were not on our March radar and rise out of nowhere – the Jeremy Hazelbakers and Ross Striplings. These are crapshoots. You can choose to ride the wave of small-sample data that drove the call-up but you also choose to shoulder the concurrent risk. These days, any breathing human being who can string together a few days of eye-opening stats – even if that performance is a complete departure from anything that player has ever done – will generate rabid interest from scavenging owners. BABS says, “Happy hunting!”
Beginning in early May, I will be posting updated BABS spreadsheets at least once monthly. (Clearly, very little is for real until we get through at least one month.) These spreadsheets will eliminate the marketplace section since every league has its own in-season market values. The preliminary plan is to run each player’s pre-season and season-to-date BABS skills ratings side-by-side. Not yet sure which way to sort the data – by current profile or pre-season (historical) profile – but I’ll figure that out before May.
Ron, is it too early to downgrade Adam Lind from F to M in playing time? His terrible start to the season has opened the door for Lee, who pinch hit for him yesterday against a lefty.
Just added your comment to the piece, as it is a relevant question. I’m not sure I’d make a change based on his alleged “terrible start” — Lind batted .100 or less over the course of a week three times last year and nobody noticed — but making a PT adjustment based on a real change in circumstances is justifiable. If Lee starts facing lefties REGULARLY – not just one pinch-hit appearance, then yes, I’d make the change.
Newbie here. I’ve been trying to get up to date and have enjoyed the book and articles. Great work.
Another interesting article. Relative to continual use of BABS during the season, is there a way to find the ratings by player, without having to look through the entire list?
Not at this time. But you can do a quick [CTL]-F or [CMD]-F to FIND anyone quickly.
Very glad to hear you’ll be updating the BABS spreadsheet monthly. Even if it doesn’t change much, you know we are anxious out here for updated information. It’ll be an interesting exercise in and of itself to see just how much change there is (I’m betting very little).
Actually, I’d bet that there will be a fair number of changes in May since it takes awhile for the stats to settle. That will undoubtedly generate a bunch of questions and some good discussion. By the end of the season, I’d bet that the ratings will look much more like the pre-season file, except for those players who had massive unexpected breakouts or breakdowns.
“The preliminary plan is to run each player’s pre-season and season-to-date BABS skills ratings side-by-side.”
THANK YOU for that. The thought in my mind as the season goes forward is WHAT PLAYERS’ RATINGS HAVE BEEN CHANGED from the pre-season BABS ratings. It will be interesting to see how many players’ ratings change as the season progresses.
Yeah, as I wrote above, I suspect there will be a ton of analytical fodder in the PROGRESSION of those ratings over time as the stats stabilize.
Ron, question on Billy Butler, he seems to be a part time player rather than full time, and your last update had him the latter. He is a FA in my AL only league, still worth $1 flyer? I suspect he’ll be listed differently in your next update. Thanks!
He’s right on the cusp. We are always going to have some question about players who straddle the line on any category. It’s a judgment call. If you believe his playing time will continue to be limited — that’s certainly justifiable — then consider him a mid-timer. I probably would not drop him to part-time status just yet.
Ron,
Me again! I appreciate the write up and that certainly sheds some light on the situation. I have exemplified excruciating patience per your wisdom. Others in the league however have not and I am interested in snatching up some of their impatient drops. I missed on speed in the draft and its showing in my h2h matchups. Ketel Marte was someone I drafted whom has the “E” liability and has been pretty flat. Wieters was just dropped and I have Realmuto who I really like. Do you like making that move? I also really like Semien and he’s on the wire, but not sure what to do there either.
If you need speed, you hang onto Ketel and Realmuto.
Semien’s on the wire? Who else can you drop to pick up about 15-20 free HRs? If nothing else, you can use Semien as trade bait.
Its a 10 team OBP league. Longstanding keeper. Wieters, Lind, Holliday, Walker, Phillips, Beltran, Soler, Plouffe, May to name a few.
If positions are not a concern, I might consider dropping Plouffe to pick up Semien. Slight OBP edge. Not a clear slam dunk move here.
The guys I just mentioned are on the wire. My team is comprised of STUDS that make BABS blush.
Then sit tight. Nothing that has happened since Opening Day has invalidated any draft decisions you’ve made.
Valencia seems to be playing FT. If he is considered FT rather than MT then his PW and AV would be much more valuable. He is on the waiver wire and I have Castellanos at 3b. Should I drop Castellanos for Valencia before others notice his increased PT? I am in a 10 team mixed league.
I’m not making moves based on less than two weeks of play. Castellanos is a pretty good player in his own right. Valencia has never been a real full-timer before. It’s a long season.
I think the people asking specific questions about players and guys on their league’s waiver wire are missing the point of BABS.
This is a framework meant to help you make a decision. It is not going to make the decision for you on players who are edge cases. We can use BABS to ascertain that Charlie Blackmon is probably much more valuable than Wil Myers (right now, at least). The decision as to whether to drop Adam Lind’s playing time projection to part time is a judgement call.
This is a framework that can and should be used by all, but it is especially valuable to those who can use it to help shape their decision making.
If you are looking for someone to tell you who to pick up and whether you’re making a good trade, then I think you’re largely missing the point of this tool.
This is especially true as we sit here less than two weeks into the season. NOTHING that has occurred between Opening Day and today has invalidated anything that we’ve done in preparation for this season. Even Trevor Story and Vince Velasquez were already identified by BABS as having the skills they are currently displaying. Playing time will change, but BABS has a pretty good handle on the skills.
Hi Ron … could you add the MLBID or HQ Player ID in future updates? Makes it so much easier to link the data with other sources. Thanx
I currently have no relationship with either, but will see what I can do.
Hi Ron–
Thank you as always for your thoughts. Do you have ideas about how BABS might provide insight into potential break-out players? Harper is perhaps a good example of what I have in mind: a player whose performance seems to come in under the expectations of his skill set. The players I have specifically in mind are Joe Ross, Aaron Sanchez and Matt Moore. All three seemed primed to improve this year, but there is no particular metric common to them. Moore’s velocity is improving, Sanchez is better in his Cmd, and Ross is impressing me as well: I had him last year, and he seems even more dominant this year. Thus far.
Brad
Breakouts are always tough to project. If it’s just an issue of playing time, then BABS does just fine — note Trevor Story’s rating. For those player who still have unrealized skills upside, BABS can at least provide a floor. For instance, there are a dozen front-line starters whose [e,k] ratings compare to Joe Ross’s [e,k], including Michael Wacha, Garrett Richards and James Shields. Sanchez [e] compares to Patrick Corbin, Hisashi Iwakuma and John Lackey. Moore [k] compares to Justin Verlander and Ubaldo Jimenez.
Not sure if this has been covered, I am in a 2 catcher NL league where the FA barrel is full of wasteland catchers. Question, if I have a catcher demoted or on DL, and all that is left are .220 BA guys who will maybe hit 5-7 HR and 30RBI, am I better leaving my C spot open, or picking up that guy playing twice a week because every stat counts. Thanks
Part of your approach depends on how long your catcher is going to be out. Every stat does count, but that includes BA, and the more ABs of .220 BA you take on, the more damage it can do. In general, I’d opt for the guy playing twice a week. If your catcher is going to only be out a few weeks, that 5-7 HR guy is not going to generate many counting stats anyway, but his .220 BA will still hurt. If you’re looking at a long-term absence, the twice a week guy becomes just a stop gap until you can find something better. A full-time .220 guy is never a good idea.
Perfect thank you Ron.
Let’s hope BABS is right about Chris Archer. I have a propensity for finding guys who hide injuries or are getting divorced or undergoing season-long karmic readjustments (see Beltre, Adrian – 2015). Being the first in my league with an 0-4 “ace” three weeks into the season is a bit unnerving.
BABS has her women’s intuition but I don’t know that she can see negative karma. Always remember – In 2008, CC Sabathia (then a VERY good pitcher), had a 13.50 ERA after four starts. He finished at 17-10 with a 2.70 ERA. LAST year, Clayton Kershaw had a 4.32 ERA after NINE starts. Chill; it’s early.
Still holding firm on BABS’ ratings, but the combination of Votto, McCutchen, Gomez and Kemp is killing me in H2H points. Won the first week thanks to a bunch of rainouts messing up my opponent’s pitching schedule, but have been drubbed the last two weeks. These guys have to start hitting sometime….don’t they?
Um, yes. The only one who I might have reservations about is Gomez, who is coming off a particularly bad season. The others – chill.
Hate to ask start/sit questions, but this is a BABs nightmare! Fifth starter for 5×5 head to head – Wainwright @Ariz (picked up on waivers!) or McHugh (@ Sea). My other choice is Latos @ Bal.
Thanks!
I’ll be publishing updated BABS ratings next week, which will make this process a little easier. Stats are still too volatile to nail down. None of these options are great, skills-wise, but at least Latos is showing results.
Thanks!