BABS Database Update – May 2017

Six weeks into the season, we would normally expect the dust to start clearing on player performance. However, the excessive number of disabled list stays is wreaking havoc with that. I’ll be writing more about it in my ESPN piece this week.

In the interim, I updated the BABS database over the weekend – a week earlier than I had planned, but what the heck – so we can take a look at some players in a bit more depth. Here are several players with interesting scans, along with some commentary. But there is a huge caveat about these small sample analyses that I talk about at the end of this article.

Bryce Harper

Year	Team	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av
====	====	===	==	==	===	===	==	==	==	==
2014	WAS	352	13	2	273	344	M	p
2015	WAS	521	42	6	330	460	F	P+		A+
2016	WAS	506	24	21	243	373	F	p
2017	WAS	113	10	0	372	496	F	P+		A+
Proj	WAS						F	PW		a

According to BABS, Harper (pictured) has officially returned to his 2015 asset profile. The pre-season rating hedged – appropriately, I believe – but it only brings up the question of what we can expect going forward. As much as we hope that the odd numbered years are his benchmark, we can’t ignore the even numbered years just because we don’t like them.

Giancarlo Stanton

Year	Team	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av
====	====	===	==	==	===	===	==	==	==	==
2014	MIA	539	37	13	288	395	F	P+		AV
2015	MIA	279	27	4	265	346	M	P+		a
2016	MIA	413	27	0	240	326	M	P+
2017	MIA	131	11	0	267	345	F	P+		a
Proj	MIA						F	P+		a

BABS’ pre-season expectation for Stanton seems dead-on at the moment. His power is still in fine display, his batting effectiveness rebounding a bit from 2016. Not shown: the injury risk, which still remains, even though he is one of the few players who hasn’t spent time on the DL yet.

Chris Owings

Year	Team	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av
====	====	===	==	==	===	===	==	==	==	==
2014	ARI	310	6	8	261	300	M	p	S+	a
2015	ARI	515	4	16	227	264	F		s	-AV
2016	ARI	437	5	21	277	315	M		S+	AV
2017	ARI	126	5	8	310	346	F		SB	AV
Proj	ARI						F		S+	a

There were several players whose pre-season ratings generated questions from readers. Owings was one of those who seemed to bubble up to the top as lower ranked players got drafted before him. BABS may have overestimated his speed just a bit, but his overall rating is holding up quite well in the earlygoing.

Michael Conforto

Year	Team	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av
====	====	===	==	==	===	===	==	==	==	==
2015	NYM	174	9	0	270	335		P+		AV
2016	NYM	304	12	2	220	310	M	PW		-AV
2017	NYM	93	8	1	323	414	M	P+	s	A+
Proj	NYM						M	P+		a

I was all over Conforto this winter but I kept getting pushback about “where will he play?” Given the rash of injuries, that should never be a question for any player. He is currently matching power expectations and BABS is even registering a touch of speed so far.

Chris Davis

Year	Team	AB	HR	SB	Avg	OBP	PT	Pw	Sp	Av
====	====	===	==	==	===	===	==	==	==	==
2014	BAL	450	26	2	196	300	F	P+		-AV
2015	BAL	573	47	2	262	361	F	P+		a
2016	BAL	566	38	1	221	332	F	P+		-AV
2017	BAL	113	4	0	239	348	F	P+		-AV
Proj	BAL						F	P+		-AV

This is one of those cases where BABS doesn’t overreact to what appears to be aberrant performance. Some may think that Davis’ power is off so far; BABS doesn’t agree.

Chris Archer

Year	Team	IP	W	Sv	K	ERA	WHIP	PT	Er	K
====	====	===	==	==	===	====	====	==	==	==
2014	TAM	195	10	0	173	3.33	1.28	F	e	k
2015	TAM	212	12	0	252	3.23	1.14	F	ER	K+
2016	TAM	201	9	0	233	4.02	1.24	F	e	K+
2017	TAM	53	3	0	59	3.04	1.13	F	ER	KK
Proj	TAM							F	ER	KK

BABS gave Archer a mulligan on 2016 and he is performing exactly as she expected.

Danny Salazar

Year	Team	IP	W	Sv	K	ERA	WHIP	PT	Er	K
====	====	===	==	==	===	====	====	==	==	==
2014	CLE	110	6	0	120	4.25	1.38	M		KK
2015	CLE	185	14	0	195	3.45	1.13	F	e	KK
2016	CLE	137	11	0	161	3.87	1.34	M		K+
2017	CLE	36	2	0	53	5.20	1.57	M		K+
Proj	CLE							F	e	KK

Despite the wild swings in ERA, BABS has always seen Salazar as having marginal pitching effectiveness. You can count on the strikeouts but ERA was always going to be a bit of a crapshoot.

Jeremy Hellicksen

Year	Team	IP	W	Sv	K	ERA	WHIP	PT	Er	K
====	====	===	==	==	===	====	====	==	==	==
2014	TAM	64	1	0	54	4.52	1.45
2015	ARI	146	9	0	121	4.62	1.33	M
2016	PHI	189	12	0	154	3.71	1.15	F
2017	PHI	39	4	0	17	3.49	1.09	M
Proj	PHI							F

This is a fun one. No matter where his surface stats seem to fall, BABS sees no semblance of above average skill anywhere. Hellicksen’s current xFIP is pushing 5.00 so this should not come as a surprise.

End of this article: I sat down last night to take a look at your comments from Friday’s reader survey. They were very insightful and I appreciate the time that many of you put into the exercise. Over the next few weeks, I am going to write some articles to address many of your ideas and issues, but one thing in particular popped up frequently… your struggles figuring out how to use BABS in-season.

I will write more about this very soon. But remember that BABS is a long-view tool. Everything we are seeing to date represents small sample sizes that are difficult to analyze. That has always been a challenge in full-season competition, but BABS pulls the covers back on that reality even more.

So the above scans really don’t tell us all that much, unfortunately. But I’ll have more about this later this week, or early next week.