BABS charts early rookie progress
by Chris Doyle
As Ron pointed out in his piece on Minor League BABS back in January, there’s one weakness in BABS’ analysis that can group players together who otherwise may not actually share similar skill sets. The example he cited was Austin Slater and Boog Powell, who had identical major league stats in 2017 and were grouped by BABS with other players she saw as similarly skilled.
However, this didn’t factor in their minor league performances, which differed greatly and were a more thorough representation of their true skills. These Minor League BABS ratings thus attempt to help highlight skills that players have exhibited prior to their first extended taste of major league action, so we can better assess their potential once they reach the major league environment.
Having hit the quarter-mark of the season, there are a number of rookies we can evaluate by comparing their Minor League BABS ratings – based on 2017 major league equivalent stats, or MLEs – to the ratings they’ve been assigned.
Here are a few interesting cases:
Christian Villanueva
MiLB [M]
MLB [M | P+, AV]
There may not be a bigger surprise, at least in terms of the rookie class, than Villanueva. His MLEs showed no distinct assets, yet after his first 87 at-bats he was hitting .299 with 9 HR. Since then, however, he’s seen his average plummet to .238 and he’s hit just one homer over than span. It’s worth noting that nine of his ten home runs have come against left-handed pitching and that he’s hitting just .163 versus righties. That amounts to a 295 wRC+ against LHP and a 50 wRC+ against RHP. Yikes. He’s probably not this bad against same-handed pitching, but he’s hard to trust right now as an everyday option with splits like that. It will be interesting to see if his P+ rating holds in the next BABS update.
Ronald Acuna, Jr.
MiLB [M | s, A+]
MLB [PW, SB, A+]
Small sample size alert! BABS only saw 29 ABs from the phenom before the update but Acuna (pictured) was certainly showing off for her, hitting .345 with a home run and a stolen base. Acuna has added a few more counting stats since then – he’s up to 4 HR and 2 SB through 80 ABs – but his average has dipped to .275 despite a .346 BABIP. Even if the average dips further, there’s still a heck of a lot to like about Acuna for 2018 though, as he’s hitting the ball hard 40% of the time and getting it airborne at a 40% clip as well. He could stand to hit a few more line drives instead of ground balls (7% LD rate, 54% GB rate) but that likely regresses as he gets more comfortable with major league pitching. While power wasn’t his true calling card in the minor leagues, he’s certainly in the midst of adding it to his arsenal.
Tyler Mahle
MiLB [M | E+]
MLB [M | e, k]
Mahle seems to have made some gains in the strikeout department (8.7 K/9), but are they fully supported? His swinging strike rate sits at 10% which is good enough to place him in the top-50 among qualified starters and not far behind fantasy star Corey Kluber (though it’s the Cleveland ace’s lowest mark since 2013). With a K% that ranks 41st at 23%, he’s in solid territory there, too. However, as evidenced by his lack of track record in that department, it’s too hard to say just yet if these are legitimate improvements or if it’s simply hitters still adjusting to a new pitcher.
Franchy Cordero
MiLB [M | p, SB, a]
MLB [M | PW, a | – ]
According to BABS the power has seen a boost while the speed has vanished. However, having added another two steals since this update without being caught, we may see a tick back up in the speed department soon. Cordero has been an interesting development for the Padres and has seemingly won a starting job in a crowded outfield. His average is likely to drop if he continues to strike out a third of the time, but it’s worth noting his strikeout and walk rates have converged over the last few weeks and he now sports a very respectable 10% BB%. With a 50% hard hit rate, top-20 average exit velocity and top-25 sprint speed, his tools are certainly loud. He’s one to watch.
Scott Kingery
MiLB [F | p, SB, AV]
MLB [F | p, s]
Kingery’s had a fairly rough time with the bat but in his defense (no pun intended) the Phillies haven’t exactly made it easy for him to get comfortable on the field. He’s started at five different positions including 14 starts at shortstop, which is not his natural position. That’s a lot to ask of someone playing in the major leagues for the very first time. One thing the Phillies are doing is pencilling him in nearly every day and giving him more and more opportunities to figure things out. The power and speed are still there, so this might be a good buy low situation.
Jesse Winker
MiLB [M | AV]
MLB [F | AV]
A .708 OPS is nothing to write home about but Winker’s been better than his surface stats show. His xBA is 24 points better at .282 and he’s making hard contact 36% of the time for an xSLG of .435, more than 100 points higher than his actual .331 SLG. His BB:K ratio of 1:1 is in elite territory, especially when you see that he’s walking and striking out at a 14% clip, both strong numbers. He doesn’t profile as a big power threat right now, but there’s room to grow into it based on his solid approach and contact skills (88%). Those in OBP leagues should definitely take note.