BABS August 2018 Update – Pitchers

by Chris Dowd

One of the most important things to remember about BABS is that she is purely analytical. Her strengths lie in assessing past performance, not predicting the future.

And there’s nothing wrong with that. Despite all the statistics out there, no tool can present a player’s true skills quite like BABS (check out the August update here).

If we’re trying to look ahead, however, we need to consider the other variables at play to determine whether Player A can keep up the pace or if he’s headed down a rough road.

A prime example is Gerrit Cole (pictured). If you’re still wondering whether Cole’s performance is sustainable, you can stop overthinking it now. Cole’s numbers (2.55 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 12.42 K/9) are elite and accurately represent his (E+, K+) rating, but his peripherals fully support continued dominance. The BABIP might be low at .269, but his swing-and-miss has more than offset that potential regression. Cole has managed a 14 percent swinging strike rate, good for ninth in baseball and just a hair behind teammate Justin Verlander. His lone blemish is the amount of hard contact he gives up (41%) but his expected batting average against is still a paltry .204, which is in the top two percent of the league. There’s no doubt he’s firmly in the fantasy ace category.

Much has been made of Luis Severino’s recent struggles but in reality he’s the same pitcher he was coming into the season (ER, KK). One thing to note is the significant decrease in ground ball rate compared to last year. At 42 percent, it’s down eight percent from 2017, and both his line drive and fly ball rates are up. Hard contact is up slightly as well, yet his HR/FB rate has actually decreased (14% to 11%). He’s allowing more balls in play that tend to result in home runs, yet he’s given up fewer homers. It’s something to watch down the stretch as he looks to get back on track.

Blake Snell (E+, KK) continues to assert himself as a blossoming frontline starter. That tiny ERA is a bit deceiving, though. His 3.63 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA potentially point to some rougher days ahead, as evidenced by his 87 percent strand rate and .242 BABIP. Is he really a 2.27 ERA pitcher? Probably not, but even with a little regression he’s still a top-end starter. Snell owners will surely take the season he’s had, especially when he ends up in the same asset group as Clayton Kershaw.

Aaron Nola is in a group of his own (E+, k) and has had a phenomenal season, posting a 2.37 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through 148 innings. While he’s been fortunate in the BABIP department (.257), he’s done so by allowing some of the weakest contact in baseball. Statcast shows Nola’s xBA, xSLG, wOBA and xwOBA are all in the top five percent of the league, in part due to his 22 percent soft contact rate which ranks seventh in the majors. Fangraphs has his hard contact rate at just 25 percent, tops in the league. You can get away with outperforming your xFIP (3.39) if you are consistently limiting hard contact and inducing ground balls (50%), and that’s exactly what Nola has done.

Corey Kluber (ER, k) has had a strange year by his standards. The ERA is still elite and the ground balls are still there, but the strikeouts are way down. After notching a career-best 11.7 K/9 last season on a 16 percent K rate, Kluber is down to 8.5 K/9 on an 11 percent K rate, his lowest numbers since 2013. What gives? His pitch mix has changed considerably: he’s using his cutter more and his curveball less. If you look back at his historical pitch usage you’ll notice that 2017 marked a defining change in approach, as his curveball percentage skyrocketed to 27 percent when it had never before reached 20 percent. He’s now throwing it nearly six percent less often. Perhaps he’s simply trying to pitch to contact more to conserve some energy, but his pitches per inning are about the same. The Indians are surely still pleased, but fantasy owners can’t help but long for more from someone who was a borderline first round pick this year. If he can bring back the hook from last season, he could definitely get back to those lofty strikeout numbers.

What’s changed for Zack Godley (KK)? He’s walking more batters per nine innings (4.1 vs. 3.1) but he’s also seen his luck vanish, as his strand rate has fallen from 75 percent to 70 percent. His BABIP is high at .319 and his 3.93 xFIP points to some potential ERA regression, but the walks will continue to be a drag on his 1.43 WHIP. It’s hard to be confident in a return to his 2017 form unless he suddenly finds his control.

If your league’s trade deadline hasn’t passed and you’re looking for someone to target on the cheap, Nick Pivetta (KK) is someone to consider. His 4.51 ERA isn’t pretty, but his strikeout rate is north of 11 per nine innings and his 3.18 xFIP and 3.21 SIERA are promising signs. His aforementioned K rate is backed by a 12 percent swinging strike rate, good enough for a top-20 rank. At just 25 years old, Pivetta also makes for a great dynasty league play.

What’s the takeaway in all this? In-season BABS can certainly start the conversation on what lies ahead, but more research is needed to really dig in to what the future holds.