BABS August 2018 Update – Batters

by Patrick Cloghessy

Now would be a good time to remind ourselves that BABS’ in-season reports are dynamic, not static. The monthly database updates are part of a larger picture. In short, we should heed Ron’s advice in the comments of a recent Mark Simmons piece:

“BABS has always worked best as a full-season rating system. The best way to use it in-season is to look at BOTH in-season ratings and previous season ratings, and assess from there. Sample size drives everything.”

Take Brandon Nimmo, for example. He first appeared in these pages back in June, sporting BABS assets (PW,SB, AV). Last month he was named a BABS All-Star with ratings of (PW,S+,a). The August update is here, and *squints*, Nimmo is only displaying the skills (p,s)?

Even with the apparent drop off, Nimmo has outperformed his preseason asset projection (*) – a plus for OBP leagues. We can conclude that, thus far, the data is inconclusive. We don’t know yet what Nimmo is. Is it reasonable to assume he will be a power/speed contributor going forward? Probably, but to what degree is still unknown.

This exercise is an illustration of something we already know: players with short track records can be uneven. BABS reflects this. On the flip side, we see the August BABS update littered with players who are at or near their preseason asset projections:

                    PRE-SEASON     IN SEASON
                    ----------     ---------
Nolan Arenado       P+,A+          P+,A+
Freddie Freeman     P+,AV          PW,A+
Mike Trout          P+,s,AV        P+,SB,AV
Jose Altuve         SB,A+          SB,A+
Matt Carpenter      P+,a           P+,AV

So what? We knew going in that these guys were good bets. Even the early-season Carpenter naysayers have to acknowledge BABS’ assessment. The relative stability detailed in BABS assets is at least reassuring. She is doing something right.

How about when a player’s in-season assets deviate from the projection? Should we be concerned? Hardly. After we exhaust our energies extrapolating, we can then see if the data is trending up or down.

                    PRE-SEASON     IN SEASON
                    ----------     ---------
Javier Baez         p,s            PW,S+,AV
Michael Conforto    P+,a           p
Juan Soto            -             PW,A+
Ozzie Albies        S+             p,s,AV
Eugenio Suarez      p              PW,AV
Anthony Rizzo       p,AV           a

Two sets of data, seemingly at odds with one another. So many questions.

Javier Baez sits atop the BABS rankings. His stats are skill-supported. Is this his new level? Could be. Anytime a player breaks out to this degree we would be silly not to take it seriously. Baez certainly has flaws in his approach (see BB rate) that could temper expectations and hint at regression. Anecdotally, other players have been able to walk little and still contribute reliable fantasy stats. Adam Jones and Alfonso Soriano come to mind.

Did Michael Conforto’s shoulder injury sap his power? It’s likely. Conforto entered the season high up in the BABS rankings, but did carry liabilities (INJ,e). He came up in 2015, played well, faltered in 2016, was sent down, broke out in 2017 only to see his season shortened by injury. The same injury forced him to miss the start of 2018. The upside is still there.

Juan Soto is making it look easy. Is he this good? We need more data. If your name is mentioned in the same sentence as home runs and Mickey Mantle, something is going on.  BABS has his in-season assets (PW,A+) alongside Freddie Freeman. The sample size is small with this one (232 AB). But a young Jedi he still may be. Wait and see and enjoy the show.

BABS is buying into Ozzie Abies’ (pictured) power stroke. Is it sustainable? Maybe. After hitting just 6 HR in 217 AB a season ago, Albies has launched 20 HR in 445 AB thus far in 2018. He has hit fly balls at a 40% clip in both ‘17 and ‘18. Those fly balls are going out of the park at a greater rate this season (14% to 8%). A few errant gusts of wind? Or is he a budding Francisco Lindor?

Is BABS affirming Eugenio Suarez’ breakout season? His skill progression leans that way. Suarez has already matched his career high in HR (358 AB). He also hit 26 in 2017 (534 AB). Year over year skills consolidation has led to a tremendous breakout. Progression isn’t always linear, but his trend has been consistent.

What happened to Anthony Rizzo? Ugh. Many of us have that feeling. After being drafted at ADP 25, Rizzo has been pretty disappointing. He did miss some time with a back injury. His place in the lineup has bolstered the RBI, but the power is seemingly gone. BABS was not entirely convinced he was a 35 HR player anyway.  His track record says he is better, and there is still time to rediscover the skills he owns.

BABS can provide clues. Definitive answers? We know better. Even without clear definition, we accept and embrace the uncertainty. The why is a curiosity. Sure, competition and monetary incentive are significant draws. More specifically, why do we allot tremendous time and effort to player analysis when it is correct only part of the time? Maybe it’s the gambler’s thrill. This is not to say we are reckless. That would be counterintuitive given the exhaustive research and agony applied to (in the grand scheme) trivial decisions. It could be that “near misses” in player evaluation activate the thrill of losing, as it were.