July 2019 BABS Update – Batters

by Doug Gruber

At last week’s MLB Midsummer Classic, consensus among baseball’s experts was that three players have separated themselves from the others for this year’s MVP honors. Mike Trout appears to be the runaway leader in the American League, while Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger are in a virtual dead heat in the NL race.

In the July BABS update, BABS gives the edge to Yelich with a stellar (P+,SB,A+) rating, better than both Trout and Bellinger (P+,A+) due to his significant speed asset. However, another young phenom, who wasn’t invited to the MLB All-Star festivities, sits atop BABS’ Midsummer update. The Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. is doing it all on the field, and as such BABS rates Tatis (P+,S+,AV) just shy of the perfect BABS extreme asset trifecta. Tatis hasn’t yet qualified for Full-Time status, but in 230 ABs he has amassed 14 HRs, 14 SBs and a .326 BA. It will be fun to watch (unless perhaps you don’t own any Tatis shares) to see if he maintains the prestigious BABS #1 position by season end.

Owners who took a chance on Shohei Ohtani have been rewarded with across the board skills (PW,s,A+), placing him slightly ahead of both Trevor Story (P+,s,AV) and Trea Turner (S+,AV). Since his week 7 debut following TJS rehab, Ohtani has delivered 14 long balls and 6 SBs to go with a .907 OPS.

Five names comprise the next asset class (PW,A+)…four who have delivered on market expectations (Arenado, Freeman, Blackmon, Rendon). Josh Bell is the fifth member of this group, and its biggest surprise. Bell continues to lead MLB in RBIs with 84, to go with 27 home runs and a .293 BA.

Sorting the July update by asset category, starting in the extreme power groups, we see that Mets rookie sensation Peter Alonso (P+,AV) is the next highest power bat. While his home run production continues to amaze (31 home runs, including his most recent 474-foot blast to the third deck in Minnesota), Alonso continues to also produce a solid BA. Despite his post-Derby hitting slump (2 for his last 19), his batting effectiveness skills have remained solid.

Other (P+) BABS hitters are certainly not shocking. The ageless Nelson Cruz (P+,AV) has been an outstanding acquisition for the slugging Twins, providing 18 HRs and a .900 OPS. Rhys Hoskins, Hunter Renfroe, Jay Bruce, Joey Gallo and Matt Olson all have (P+,a) ratings, although Gallo and Olson have missed time with injuries. This quintet was expected to provide extreme power, but so far this year they have also been respectable in batting average, especially Gallo, where BABS says his .265/.407 BA/OBP is supported by an improvement in skills.

A few other (P+) bats are names we might not have expected. Pablo Sandoval and Mitch Garver have demonstrated (P+,AV) skills in part time roles, both with double-digit home run output and batting averages around .290. Seattle’s Daniel Vogelbach (P+) has continued to produce in Seattle, with 21 HRs to date.

Looking at extreme speed skills, BABS lists players we would expect to carry the top shelf (S+) rating. Dee Gordon, Adalberto Mondesi (pictured), Jarrod Dyson and Mallex Smith have all maintained their (S+) skills, although Smith’s 24 bags have come with a batting average liability that was not anticipated. Tampa’s Kevin Kiermaier (S+,a) has always possessed excellent speed, but it has been several years since he has shown extreme skills, while also avoiding any prolonged injuries. As a result, Kiermaier has swiped 17 bases (his career high is 21) to go with 10 HRs and a .252 BA in 302 ABs, which is about his season AB average for four of the past five seasons.

There are several other players who have exhibited extreme batting effectiveness skills (A+), beyond those aforementioned players. Ketel Marte (SB,A+) continues his career year, currently sitting at a BA of .313, to go with 21 home runs. Interesting, BABS still hasn’t bought into Marte’s power skills despite him hitting more home runs this season in 370 ABs than he hit in his previous three seasons spanning nearly 1200 ABs. She is tough at times.

DJ LeMahieu (s,A+) has returned to his (A+) skill level, hitting atop the powerful Yankees lineup at a .331 clip, and showing he can hit for average away from Coors. Others who have demonstrated (A+) skills in a full-time capacity include Michael Brantley, Rafael Devers, Jeff McNeil and Dodger rookie Alex Verdugo. For Devers, BABS agrees that his .326 average is supported by extreme skills, but she is still skeptical that his 18 HRs is based on above average power skills. Owners of Devers nevertheless are enjoying his breakout season, including his 72 runs scored and 73 RBIs.

For fantasy players looking for a batting average lift from players who might still be available in leagues, BABS lists (A+) ratings for some mid-time players such as Howie Kendrick (A+) and Pirate teammates Kevin Newman (s,A+), Bryan Reynolds (p,A+) and the ageless Melky Cabrera (A+).

BABS also was kind enough to provide asset ratings for many of the recent call-ups. Yordan Alvarez (P+,A+) certainly has been acquired in all leagues, but here are several others with enticing skill sets that maybe have still been overlooked: Robel Garcia (P+,A+), Michael Brousseau (P+,A+), Austin Slater (P+,A+), Tommy Edman (p,S+,AV), Alex Dickerson (P+,AV), David Freese (p,A+) and Luis Arraez (A+). Small sample alerts, as normal.

Of course, many players continue to disappoint, and remain a batting effectiveness liability. You can scan the list for those with (-AV) ratings, including those who have not shown any above league average skills in either power or speed. A few notable names from the (-AV) group include Jurickson Profar, Enrique Hernandez, Jose Peraza, Brandon Crawford, Leonys Martin and Yonder Alonso. With the exception of Crawford, who had a career day at Coors this past Monday (11 ABs, 6 hits, 2 HRs, 9 RBIs in the DH), the rest have either lost their full time starting position, or in Martin’s and Alonso’s case, have lost their 25-man roster spot altogether.

BABS will return later this year with one more update before the season concludes.