Early returns look profitable for BABS pitcher targets

by Doug Gruber

Two weeks ago, we looked at several pre-season hitter asset groups to measure how well BABS was doing for 2019. That evaluation identified numerous examples of hitters who have been very profitable. This week we will do the same assessment for the pitcher rankings. We think you will like these results too!

A guiding fundamental of BABS is that players with compatible skills are grouped into asset groups, making these players basically interchangeable. Equipped with a ranked list of asset groups, our strategy at draft time is to compare players to the marketplace (as measured by AAV/ADP), and look for the largest discrepancies. Profit opportunities exist where BABS rates players higher than the market. BABS says to avoid players where the marketplace is far more optimistic.

For the full time starting pitchers, BABS ranked Chris Sale (E+,K+), Jacob DeGrom (E+,KK) and Max Scherzer (ER,K+) as the three top arms, and the market agreed. To date, this trio has produced quite well, as evidenced by top 10 positions in nearly all major statistical categories.

The first large asset group for starting pitchers was (ER,KK), which included 14 highly skilled hurlers… names such as Verlander, Cole and Buehler. The market valued 12 of the 14 very high, requiring a selection within the first four rounds of most drafts. But BABS included two comparable arms that the market discounted from the rest, both of whom have provided sizeable profit to their owners. Charlie Morton was an 8-9 round choice, but has posted exceptional numbers… eight wins, 2.43 ERA, 1.05 Whip and 120 Ks in 99 innings. Two hundred picks later, Brad Peacock was available, and while he hasn’t delivered numbers as impressive as Morton’s, a 3.62 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.55 K/9 in 14 starts is a substantial return for a 20th round selection.

The next tier of SPs included two aces in the (ER,k) group. BABS wasn’t as bullish as the market on Aaron Nola, and to date, Nola hasn’t earned his 2nd round acquisition cost, at this time carrying an ERA/WHIP of 4.55/1.45. However, the other member of this group was once again undervalued by the fantasy community. Zack Greinke had a 5th round ADP, and savvy owners are smiling over his current 3.07 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and eight wins.

In the (e,KK) collection, the market was highest on Robbie Ray and Yu Darvish, and pushed Kenta Maeda (pictured) to the bottom of the group. Ray and Darvish have delivered more Ks, but Maeda has earned higher total value based on his superior ratios. The best part? Maeda was available nearly 100 picks later.

Hyun-Jin Ryu was available 3-4 rounds later than (ER,k) group-mates Tanaka and Bieber. Owners who waited to grab Ryu in the 12-13 range have been handsomely rewarded with one of the premier pitchers of the first half season. Check out these numbers… nine wins, 1.27 ERA, and 0.84 WHIP, and (knock on wood) only one missed start.

BABS identified seven full time pitchers in the (e,k) asset group, and the market had a clear preference for four of the seven. The trio that the market discounted was Luis Castillo, Cole Hamels and Jon Gray, with Gray being the last off the board at around ADP 205. Castillo has delivered seven wins, over 100 Ks, and an ERA of 2.56 (although his FIP is more than a run higher). Hamels thus far has become the ace of the Cubs staff, returning a nice profit for his 10th round investment. Gray has already logged eight wins, and more than 100 Ks, rewarding his owners with consistent performances both at Coors and away.

A similar story can be found in the mid-timers of the (e.k) group. The market was most bullish on pitchers such as J.A. Happ, Nick Pivetta and Eduardo Rodriguez, but BABS said similar arms could be found 100 picks later, or in the case of Brandon Woodruff, as many as 200 picks later. Woodruff thus far has earned nine wins, struck out nearly 11 batters per nine, with a FIP of 3.07… one of the most profitable starting pitchers in the first half.

BABS also warned us that the skill sets (e) of Jamison Taillon, Madison Bumgarner and Rick Porcello didn’t match their lofty ADPs. BABS has been correct to this point. Similar heeds were provided to owners regarding the outlooks for Kyle Freeland and Kevin Gausman, both of whom were selected in the 11-13 range. Their ratings were void of any helpful assets, and neither pitcher has come close to delivering positive returns for its owners.

BABS identified several skilled SPs who had uncertain paths to a rotation role to begin the season. Owners who used end game selections or the free agent pool to acquire these skillful arms have struck gold up to now with players such as Julio Urias (e,k), Max Fried (e,k), Mike Soroka (ER) and Domingo German (KK).

For the closers, BABS listed six pitchers as possessing the highest possible asset rating for relief pitchers (E+,K+,SV). The market pushed up Edwin Diaz, based on the recency bias of 2018, and discounted Aroldis Chapman and Brad Hand 2-3 rounds after Diaz. Both have provided superior returns for its owners versus a 3rd round investment in Diaz. Chapman already has 23 saves (his career high is 38) along with a FIP of 1.73 and 12.8 K/9. Hand had saved 21 straight games until his first blown save this week, and even though that outing cost him more than a run on his ERA, he still owns a 2.36 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and more than 13 Ks per nine innings. Toss in four wins as a bonus.

In the next tiers of closers, BABS identified several highly skilled pitchers who have been outstanding in the first half. Roberto Osuna (E+,KK,SV), Josh Hader (ER,K+,sv-), Kirby Yates (ER,K+,sv-) and Will Smith (ER,K+,sv-) have all delivered in a big way, and protected its owners from scouring the waiver wire each week in search of scarce save sources.

Overall, BABS has fared very well on its rankings of pitchers, with many profitable selections so far. Combined with the hitters, owners who followed BABS’ rankings, and played the market effectively, are likely well positioned in their league standings.