Who’s joining the $30 Club?

This is my weekly article for ESPN Insider.

In a world where head-to-head games and snake drafts have become fantasy baseball’s standards, the industry began nearly 40 years ago as AL/NL-only Rotisserie auction leagues. Millions still play those games and there is an artifact from that format with utility for every style of play.

Dollar values continue to be convenient data points that accurately measure each player’s contribution to his team’s success or failure. The standard auction budget has been $260 per team since almost the beginning, which allows us to set benchmarks for player value. Thirty dollars is the generally-accepted delineator for star performance; fewer than 20 players reach that threshold each year.

It is the benchmark for our roster’s cornerstone players – $30.

So far in 2018, the $30 Club includes the usual suspects. Mike Trout leads all players with $44 in roto earnings. Other club members include regulars Mookie Betts ($38), Bryce Harper ($35), Max Scherzer ($34), Charlie Blackmon ($30) and Manny Machado ($30).

There are a handful of players who are $20-plus regulars experiencing an early surge. These players may sustain their performances but are also candidates for at least moderate regression. They include Didi Gregorius ($39), Carlos Correa ($33) and Justin Verlander ($30). Aaron Judge ($34) is trying to prove that his $32 performance in 2017 was no fluke, but so far his earnings are driven as much by his batting average (.325) as his power (6 HRs).

For the following players, $30 in earnings puts them in uncharted waters. None have earned $30 before, and for some, that level exceeds anything industry analysts have ever projected.

Jed Lowrie has never earned even $20 in a season, let alone his current $34. His previous high water mark was the $17 he earned in 2013 behind a 15-homer .290 performance. That stat line was driven by over 600 at-bats of playing time. Therein lies the rub; thanks to injuries, he has exceeded 500 AB only three times in his entire decade-long career.

So that is the first factor standing in the way of him sustaining this early surge. His .397 BABIP – a full 100 points higher than his career mark – drops the bottom out of his .357 batting average. His 23 percent home run to flyball rate is double any previous performance. Find an A’s fan and trade him.

Sean Manaea: To demonstrate how volatile stats are at this time of year, Manaea’s no-hitter boosted his early earnings by over $5, lifting him to $32. But that takes nothing away from his skill. Injuries derailed his sophomore season last year, but the potential for a breakout has been evident for awhile.

Can he maintain a $30 level for the entire year? Probably not. A .135 BABIP and 94 percent strand rate artificially suppress his current 1.23 ERA; his skills-based level is more like 3.25. His 7.4 strikeout rate – which is par for his career – is low for a $30 arm. Still, a $25 breakout season is well within his capabilities.

Rhys Hoskins exploded for 18 home runs in only 170 at-bats last year, boosting our draft day optimism to an ADP of 51. Conservative analysts expected some regression but his early $30 earnings seem to support the cheerleaders. Is it real?

These early earnings are being driven by a .323 batting average, which is inflated by a .415 BABIP. However, last year’s .241 BABIP likely suppressed his .259 average. Reality lives somewhere in between. But the power is very real. Hoskins could hit 30-plus homers and bat somewhere near .265, which likely drops him short of $30, but not by much.

Javier Baez: Big things were expected for Baez but a .169 rookie season batting average set back his timetable. The march back to relevance began in 2016 and the growth continued into last year’s $19 performance. So far this year, he’s earning his keep at a $34 rate. Is that jump sustainable?

It could well be. There are continuing growth signs all around, from his plate patience, to his contact rate, to his hard hit contact. With even some mild regression, he could be on pace for a 30-100-.285 season, which could be enough for him to join the $30 Club.

Ozzie Albies (pictured) has already hit as many homers in 90 AB as he hit in 244 Major League at bats last year. That power surge is driving his current $30 earnings, but it’s questionable whether it can be sustained. Albies profiles as a speed source with moderate power, though at 21, there are lots of directions his growth could take. There are few players who have had major breakouts at this age, so the percentage play for him joining the $30 Club this year is low. Still, worth watching.

Patrick Corbin: I wrote about Corbin last week and his surprising season continues to surge. He is currently a member of the Club, but his career earnings history is not pretty. Since his 2012 rookie year: -$5, $14, $2, -$9, $8 and now $34.

This surge continues to be fueled by his home-road splits. Whether via humidor or divine intervention, he’s sporting a 1.29 home ERA with 39 strikeouts and only four walks in 28 innings. These numbers have all been compiled against Arizona’s currently soft in-division opponents. Until Corbin takes the mound on the road more often and faces stiffer competition, the jury will be out on his $30 prospects. But I’m betting against.