A New Year for BABS
As each year passes, BABS gets more and more fully formed. Last year, we got a quick peek at what she looks like. This year, the shy one will show herself a little bit more.
In 2018, the BABS database reports are now automated and customizable from the get-go, and the display is more user-friendly. However, if you are interested to see what BABS looks like on steroids, buy RotoLab (available at the end of the month but pre-orders being taken now). It is magnificent.
A new year brings new challenges in the world of baseball. In 2017, we had to fight against soaring power, plummeting speed, shifting pitcher roles and the 10-day DL. We don’t know if these trends will continue into 2018, but we should prepare for any eventuality. BABS has already taken some preliminary steps but now we need to figure out the best way to put her talents to best use.
Let’s follow along with the first database reports of the New Year here. Selections:
Year PROJ
Report Type Draft Ranking (batter or pitcher)
Sort BABS
League Mixed, NL or AL
Position ALL, or select
Soaring Power
Last month I wrote, “Left alone, we might end up with spring draft lists containing only (P+) batters…” After the homer hubbub last season, that’s what I thought we’d be facing. But I should have known better. Reality turns out to be different. BABS has it all under control.
Percentage of 2017 mid/full-time
Batters with BABS power ratings
2017 2018
Proj Act Proj
----- ----- -----
P+ 11.1% 12.0% 8.3%
PW 16.8 14.2 10.5%
p 30.7 31.6 28.6%
So, while there was a difference between expectation and reality in 2017, it was hardly noteworthy and the overall net effect was negative! You can thank BABS for the broad scaling she does in the planning process, which casts out a wider net.
The drop across the board in early 2018 data is solely due to the over-projection of playing time this early in the off-season. As roles start sorting out, this will correct and those percentages will rise.
As such, do not make any adjustments to how you draft power in 2018. There is no need to stockpile or overdraft. A rising tide lifts all boats, and BABS accounts for that.
Plummeting Speed
It’s common knowledge: the 2018 speed game is Dee Gordon, Trea Turner, Billy Hamilton… and everyone else. And those “everyones” are fewer and tougher to find. Right? Once again, reality is different.
2017 2018
Proj Act Proj
----- ----- -----
S+ 4.6% 5.8% 3.2%
SB 9.6 6.9 8.2
s 10.4 15.6 13.3
On a purely skills basis, there were actually a few more speedsters at the top end of the food chain by season’s end, with names like Starling Marte, Manuel Margot and Byron Buxton likely joining the elite trio in 2018. The bottom end of the speed pool was also flush with more talent than expected. But since the mid-level sources declined, there was the perception that stolen bases had become scarcer.
It just means that you have to draft a little differently. Certainly, one or two (S+) commodities would be good to own as anchors. But there should be a decent number of (s) players available at the bottom of the pool to provide support.
Regardless, the BABS goals will remain as tough to reach as always. Still less than 30 percent of the player pool provides above average speed, and with some positions completely bereft of burners, it will always be beneficial to grab at least one (S+) player.
Pitcher Roles
In 2017, there were less than half as many 200-IP starters as there were three years ago. Even BABS felt the pain.
2017 2018
Proj Act Proj
----- ----- -----
F 32% 27% 25%
M 68% 73% 75%
I could have adjusted the innings thresholds that determine whether a pitcher is a full or mid-timer, but that’s only putting a Band-Aid on the problem. Full-timers have become scarce, which makes them more pricey, and you need to work harder to get them onto your roster. That is likely going to continue into 2018.
However, the rise of the middle reliever – assuming that continues – potentially gives you flexibility to take on more mid-timers. It needs to be a deliberate strategy – or a firm Plan B should you get blocked out of full-timers – to target the most elite of relief skills, regardless of whether they come with any saves.
I’m getting a little bit ahead of myself here. I’ll be providing full positional analyses next month in which we’ll explore the options in more depth.
Handling Injuries
The new 10-day disabled list opened the door for MLB teams to micro-manage their rosters, creating a state of perpetual frustration for fantasy leaguers. While injury management was difficult, BABS did succeed in providing at least a little bit of help. Of the Top 300 ranked players of 2017:
BABS Healthy DL %DL ----- ------- --- --- None 93 78 46% inj- 26 54 68% INJ 17 32 65%
By avoiding players with any injury Liability, you gave yourself at least a 20 percent advantage in rostering a healthy player. These days, that ain’t nothin’.
It may be important to note that these results showed no significant difference in the probability of injury between (inj-) and (INJ) players. However, the manner in which these ratings are assigned still warrants more caution for those with major risk.
Included among the (inj-) players are those who had isolated injuries that kept them out past the 20-game threshold but without a history of health concerns. Intuitively, these players should be somewhat less risky. Given the higher incidence of injuries overall, if you have to roster an extra (inj-) player or two – carefully identifying those who are less risky – it’s probably not the end of the world.
But continue to avoid (INJ) players. These are the ones with the more long-term injuries or are demonstrably injury-prone.
Oh this is exciting. My first year with BABS. I read the whole PDF a while back and just had a question regarding overall rankings vs pos rankings. Do you (Ron) or users recommend going pos by pos ranking, or just do all players together? My primary league is an auction, keeper league and just want to know what is the best for that type of league.
I have always done positional rankings in the past.
And would you separate SP from RP?
Awesome content! I am brand new to BABS, and I love the accounting structure and terminology to the method. I’m looking forward to what this year brings!
Where are the ADP data coming from this early in the year? Have leagues already drafted?
Greatly prefer overall rankings while taking position scarcity into consideration (mostly just for catchers). I’ll be doing positional analyses beginning in a few weeks, which are only intended to give us a better idea of the player pool. But you should draft for overall value.
No more than I’d separate power-hitting outfielders from speedy shortstops. Players contribute to different categories.
Yes the National Fantasy Baseball Championship has been drafting leagues for over a month now. These are NFBC ADPs.
The only trouble I had with BABS was during a live auction. I had my cheat sheets printed out and it became a bit difficult to find a player as he was called. I’m going to need to figure out a way to do it a bit better—maybe it means I’ll just have to go off of my laptop and just “Ctl+F” guys as they come up, but I don’t like having tech up at the draft. I was thinking color-coding the positions to help me find players. I’ll fool around with mocks as we get closer.
If I’m running a report for this upcoming season should I be using 2017 + draft or 2017 + in season?
You should be using PROJ and Draft.
Admittedly, the BABS cheat sheet is more work when used as hard copy. Using CTL-F in a spreadsheet is a big improvement. Using RotoLab makes it even easier.
I know this is the first set of rankings with a few tweaks in the future but I have a hard time believing the Goldschmidt is ranked 40th behind guys like Mahtook, Difo, and DeJong. Or am I just doing something wrong with the download?
Sounds like you set the parameters incorrectly somewhere. Goldschmidt should be listed around #23 but even so, players are not ranked individually. Players are ranked by market value within their Asset Groups (which are the ranked elements that you need to rely on). Re-read Chap 7 and either Cap 9 or 11 in The BABS Project ebook, if necessary.
Definitely operator error. I’ll be more careful next time. Thanks
Not sure I view Goldy as just AV in average. He has a .299 LT batting average.
“AV” is not just batting average but more of an overall batting skill gauge. That said, Goldschmidt does consistently overperform his skills-based BA, and did bat just .274 in the 2nd half last year. In short – there is some downside.
All BABS did for me the past week was help me realize I needed to offload players I can’t keep and find someone to help. 2nd year with BABS and she’s already replacing my girlfriend. Which in itself is valuable. Just traded McCullers, Castellanos, LeMahieu and an 8th round for JD Martinez and an 11th. Spring training can’t come soon enough!
ROTOLAB!!!! Have always loved that program and just went and ordered it knowing that there is the BABS module that can be used. Last year I used BABS and cashed in all my leagues but the hardest use was BABS and an auction. The player search feature and also the use of to get a grouping at that level lets you instantly find the player AND be able to see if there are others that will give you the same results. This is huge in an auction when there might be that perceived lack of depth but then you look and poof… BABS shows you the way!!
When will Rotolabs Babs information be available?
Available now. See link in the right column.
I can’t find the BABS module within rotolab. Any clues on how to access it?
Make sure you have the Rotolab GP (General Platform) version installed. The old classic Windows version has not changed from last year and does not have the BABS module in it. Only the Mac and new Windows versions, which together make up RotoLab GP.