PLAYER PREMONITION #170403
Every so often, something about a player will rise to my consciousness. A hidden indicator. A revelation that wakes me up at night. I’ll call these periodic posts Player Premonitions.
We’ll open this new feature with a starting pitcher. Seven years ago, this pitcher won 18 games with a 2.97 ERA in nearly 200 innings, a $21 season. For the next six years, he couldn’t crack $7 in roto earnings and twice killed his owners with 5.00-plus ERAs. Moving to the pen in 2016, he showed some signs of life, though offset by a 4.8 bb/9 rate. His stock has fallen so low that his current ADP is No. 568 — essentially undraftable in even a 24-team mixed league.
However…
His xERAs each year, including his 2010 breakout (thanks, BaseballHQ.com), have been 3.76, 3.88, 3.60, 4.06, 3.93, 3.50. 3.84. That’s a pretty consistent track record. Note that first value — 3.76 — was during his 2.97 season, so he’s been pretty much the same pitcher for his entire career.
His swinging strike rate the past four years has been 8%, 11%, 10%, 12%. His associated fastball velocity has been 89.3 mph, 90 mph, 91.5 mph, 92 mph.
Over the past two years, he’s averaged a 60 percent ground ball rate.
In January, he signed a one year contract with the Padres. That’s a great pitchers ballpark overall, but he’s going from a park that inflates walks by 5 percent to one that suppresses walks by 6 percent.
BABS sees him as a quite acceptable (e,k). Currently listed among the mid-timers, his rating is comparable to full-timers like Danny Duffy, Gerrit Cole and Marcus Stroman.
This spring, he’s reintroduced a cut fastball into his arsenal to move back into the rotation.
In 19.3 innings this spring, he gave up just 11 hits (1 HR) with 21 strikeouts and (unfortunately) 11 walks). That’s still a 3.26 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. I know, it’s just spring training.
He will start the third game of the season for the Padres.
Speculate on TREVOR CAHILL. Unless you’re in an NL-only league, odds are he’s still out there in your free agent pool.
Thanks Ron. BABS steered me to pick up Cahill in the $1 supplemental round during my auction on Saturday, so I will put this to the test…
Ron,
Do you like Cahill more than Robert Gsellman? They have very similar skill sets and their liabilities are the same. Does the fact that Gsellman pitches for a better team factor into anything?
Team is irrelevant (see p. 26 in the eBook). Cahill has a clearer path to a regular rotation spot, at least for now. But I don’t particularly like one more than the other.
Very interesting article, Ron, I just added Cahill to my scout team yesterday. Now just have to figure out if he is worth cutting someone like Folty or Lorenzon. Decided yesterday he wasn’t (need the chance of saves) but always worth revisiting. Thanks for the insight, Dave
Happy to say I drafted Cahill NL for the cost cutter price of $1. Hoping he’s the steal of the draft. Thanks for this write up!
Would you drop Vince Velasquez or Dan Straily to sign Cahill. Based on the BABS database and your old company’s database that incorporates my league setup I think that l should keep both Straily and Velasquez over Cahill
Current projections systems are not going to pick up on the speculative nature of these Player Premonitions, which will always be rated lower. You have to decide whether your team is in position to take a chance on such a speculation.