Hobbled players offer profit opportunities
Here are some startling stats:
In the complete BABS database that contains over 1,300 players, 33 percent of them are currently tagged with some level of elevated injury risk. That’s 32 percent of batters; 36 percent of pitchers. About 18 percent have major risk (INJ), split as 17 percent of batters and 21 percent of pitchers.
We all know that every player has some level of injury risk – and BABS sets that baseline at 25 percent odds – so these tagged players are those who all have more than a 25 percent risk of missing significant time on the DL.
That means, unless you make a concerted effort to avoid them, about seven or eight of the 23 players on your roster are going to open the season with some elevated injury risk. Admittedly, that makes the limited BABS risk budget more of a challenge this year. Just do the best you can. Think of it this way… every player you avoid who has injury risk means you’ll be relegating some other team in your league to a significantly more hobbled roster.
Here is a list of the players with highest market value and the most Injury risk (INJ), sorted by their BABS asset group ratings. They have the most uncertainty coming into 2017, either because they are hurt now or because they have the longest history of injury concerns.
Note that all of these players have INJ in that column (so it’s been omitted).
MARKET | ASSETS | LIAB | |||||||||
ADP | R$ | BATTER | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | Av | Ex | |
ADP | R$ | PITCHER | Pos | Tm | PT | Er | K | Sv | Er | Ex | |
36 | $23 | Pollock,A.J. | 8o | ARI | F | p | SB | AV | |||
35 | $23 | Darvish,Yu | SP | TEX | F | ER | K+ | ||||
32 | $24 | Story,Trevor | 6 | COL | F | P+ | a | EX | |||
39 | $22 | Stanton,Giancarlo | o9 | MIA | F | P+ | a | ||||
56 | $18 | Carrasco,Carlos | SP | CLE | F | ER | KK | ||||
55 | $19 | Strasburg,Stephen | SP | WAS | M | ER | K+ | ||||
180 | $7 | McCullers,Lance | SP | HOU | M | ER | K+ | e | |||
255 | $3 | Drury,Brandon | o795 | ARI | F | p | AV | e | |||
304 | $2 | Owings,Christopher | 68o | ARI | F | S+ | a | – | |||
207 | $6 | Castellanos,Nick | 5 | DET | F | PW | a | ||||
129 | $10 | Hill,Rich | SP | LA | M | ER | KK | ||||
195 | $6 | Inciarte,Ender | o8 | ATL | F | SB | AV | ||||
203 | $6 | Moustakas,Mike | 5 | KC | F | p | a | ||||
207 | $6 | Pence,Hunter | 9o | SF | F | p | a | ||||
261 | $3 | Holliday,Matt | o7 | NYY | F | p | a | ||||
308 | $2 | Bour,Justin | 3 | MIA | F | p | a | e | |||
73 | $16 | deGrom,Jacob | SP | NYM | M | ER | k | ||||
167 | $8 | Matz,Steven | SP | NYM | M | ER | k | e | |||
395 | -$1 | Wood,Alex | SP | LA | M | ER | k | ||||
144 | $9 | Harvey,Matt | SP | NYM | M | e | KK | ||||
190 | $6 | Kiermaier,Kevin | 8o | TAM | F | SB | a | ||||
115 | $11 | Cole,Gerrit | SP | PIT | F | e | k | ||||
265 | $3 | Santana,Domingo | o9 | MIL | F | PW | e | ||||
324 | $1 | Gordon,Alex | o7 | KC | F | PW | |||||
323 | $1 | Holland,Greg | rp | COL | ER | K+ | sv- | ||||
330 | $1 | Duffy,Matt | 5 | TAM | F | s | a | ||||
201 | $6 | Travis,Devon | 4 | TOR | F | AV | e | ||||
322 | $1 | Panik,Joe | 4 | SF | F | AV | |||||
244 | $4 | Kang,Jung-ho | 5 | PIT | M | PW | AV | e | |||
402 | -$1 | Pearce,Steve | 3 | TOR | M | PW | AV | ||||
186 | $7 | Paxton,James | SP | SEA | M | e | k | ||||
214 | $5 | Nola,Aaron | SP | PHI | M | e | k | e | |||
246 | $4 | Ross,Joe | SP | WAS | M | e | k | e | |||
252 | $4 | Richards,Garrett | SP | LAA | M | e | k | ||||
308 | $2 | Lynn,Lance | SP | STL | M | e | k | ||||
358 | $0 | Ross,Tyson | SP | TEX | M | e | k | ||||
371 | $0 | Garcia,Jaime | SP | ATL | M | e | k | ||||
286 | $2 | Soler,Jorge | o7 | KC | F | p | e | ||||
158 | $8 | Ottavino,Adam | rp | COL | ER | KK | sv- | ||||
222 | $5 | Bedrosian,Cam | rp | LAA | ER | KK | sv- | e | |||
386 | -$1 | Vizcaino,Arodys | rp | ATL | ER | KK | sv- | e | |||
273 | $3 | Peralta,David | o9 | ARI | M | p | AV | ||||
588 | -$5 | Ethier,Andre | o7 | LA | M | p | AV | ||||
207 | $6 | Gray,Sonny | SP | OAK | F | e | |||||
170 | $7 | Iglesias,Raisel | rp | CIN | e | KK | sv- | e | |||
343 | $1 | Knebel,Corey | rp | MIL | e | KK | sv- | e | |||
311 | $2 | Cobb,Alex | SP | TAM | M | e | |||||
228 | $5 | Puig,Yasiel | o9 | LA | M | p | a | ||||
330 | $1 | Choo,Shin-Soo | o9 | TEX | M | p | a | ||||
456 | -$2 | Peralta,Jhonny | 5 | STL | M | p | a | ||||
177 | $7 | Moore,Matt | SP | SF | M | k | |||||
293 | $2 | Norris,Daniel | SP | DET | M | k | e | ||||
298 | $2 | Rodriguez,Eduardo | SP | BOS | M | k | e | ||||
336 | $1 | Skaggs,Tyler | SP | LAA | M | k | |||||
406 | -$1 | Buchholz,Clay | SP | PHI | M | k | |||||
341 | $1 | Souza,Steven | o9 | TAM | F | p | AV | e | |||
77 | $15 | Schwarber,Kyle | o7 | CHC | M | P+ | EX | ||||
246 | $4 | Bird,Gregory | 3 | NYY | M | P+ | EX | ||||
336 | $1 | Duda,Lucas | 3 | NYM | M | P+ | |||||
307 | $2 | Reyes,Jose | 5 | NYM | M | SB | a | ||||
356 | $0 | Smith,Mallex | o87 | TAM | M | SB | a | EX | |||
529 | -$4 | Spangenberg,Cory | 4 | SD | M | SB | a | e | |||
449 | -$2 | Hudson,Daniel | rp | PIT | e | k | sv- | ||||
224 | $5 | DeSclafani,Anthony | SP | CIN | F | ||||||
380 | $0 | Lawrie,Brett | 4 | CHW | F | ||||||
427 | -$2 | Garcia,Avisail | 0o9 | CHW | F | ||||||
454 | -$2 | Hardy,J.J. | 6 | BAL | F | ||||||
621 | -$5 | Canha,Mark | o3 | OAK | M | PW | e | ||||
360 | $0 | Capps,Carter | rp | SD | ER | K+ | |||||
403 | -$1 | Doolittle,Sean | rp | OAK | ER | K+ | |||||
487 | -$3 | Rosenthal,Trevor | rp | STL | ER | K+ | |||||
600 | -$5 | Uehara,Koji | rp | CHC | ER | K+ | |||||
621 | -$5 | O Day,Darren | rp | BAL | ER | K+ | |||||
630 | -$5 | Romo,Sergio | rp | LA | ER | K+ | |||||
650 | -$6 | Smith,Will | rp | SF | ER | K+ | |||||
667 | -$6 | Cecil,Brett | rp | STL | ER | K+ | |||||
297 | $2 | Reddick,Josh | o9 | HOU | M | s | a | ||||
456 | -$2 | Pagan,Angel | o7 | FAN | M | s | a | ||||
221 | $5 | Brantley,Michael | o7 | CLE | M | AV | |||||
375 | $0 | Herrmann,Chris | 2 | ARI | M | p | SB | AV | e | ||
339 | $1 | Chen,Wei-Yin | SP | MIA | M | ||||||
418 | -$1 | Chatwood,Tyler | SP | COL | M | ||||||
481 | -$3 | Morton,Charlie | SP | HOU | M | ||||||
580 | -$5 | Anderson,Brett | SP | CHC | M | ||||||
653 | -$6 | Adleman,Timothy | SP | CIN | M | EX | |||||
312 | $2 | Gomes,Yan | 2 | CLE | M | p | – | ||||
395 | -$1 | Zimmerman,Ryan | 3 | WAS | M | p | |||||
453 | -$2 | Plouffe,Trevor | 5 | OAK | M | p | |||||
557 | -$4 | Morrison,Logan | 3 | TAM | M | p | |||||
553 | -$4 | Cishek,Steve | rp | SEA | ER | KK | |||||
702 | -$6 | Zych,Tony | rp | SEA | ER | KK | EX | ||||
710 | -$7 | Simmons,Shae | rp | SEA | ER | KK | EX | ||||
429 | -$2 | Karns,Nathan | SP | KC | M | k | -ER | e | |||
610 | -$5 | Meyer,Alex | SP | LAA | M | k | -ER | EX | |||
495 | -$3 | Boxberger,Brad | rp | TAM | e | K+ | |||||
674 | -$6 | Kela,Keone | rp | TEX | e | K+ | e | ||||
999 | -$10 | Solis,Sammy | rp | WAS | e | K+ | e | ||||
367 | $0 | Sandoval,Pablo | 5 | BOS | M | a | |||||
510 | -$3 | Jay,Jon | o8 | CHC | M | a | |||||
555 | -$4 | Holt,Brock | o7 | BOS | M | a | |||||
667 | -$6 | Young,Chris | o7 | BOS | PW | a | |||||
476 | -$3 | Lorenzen,Michael | rp | CIN | ER | k | e | ||||
664 | -$6 | Kelly,Joe | rp | BOS | ER | k | |||||
694 | -$6 | Smith,Carson | rp | BOS | ER | k | e | ||||
570 | -$4 | McGee,Jake | rp | COL | e | KK | |||||
659 | -$6 | Diekman,Jake | rp | TEX | e | KK | |||||
675 | -$6 | Dunn,Mike | rp | COL | e | KK | |||||
705 | -$6 | Hochevar,Luke | rp | FAA | e | KK | |||||
999 | -$10 | Barrett,Aaron | SP | FAN | e | KK | e | ||||
999 | -$10 | Logan,Boone | rp | CLE | e | KK | |||||
999 | -$10 | Loup,Aaron | rp | TOR | e | KK | |||||
999 | -$10 | Scribner,Evan | rp | SEA | e | KK | |||||
292 | $2 | Maybin,Cameron | 8o | LAA | M | s | |||||
663 | -$6 | Travis,Sam | 3 | BOS | p | a | EX | ||||
543 | -$4 | Chirinos,Robinson | 2 | TEX | P+ | e | |||||
318 | $1 | Zimmermann,Jordan | SP | DET | M | -ER | |||||
400 | -$1 | Wright,Steven | SP | BOS | M | -ER | e | ||||
488 | -$3 | Cashner,Andrew | SP | TEX | M | -ER | |||||
514 | -$3 | McCarthy,Brandon | SP | LA | M | -ER | |||||
526 | -$4 | Hutchison,Drew | SP | PIT | M | -ER | |||||
566 | -$4 | Holland,Derek | SP | CHW | M | -ER | |||||
578 | -$5 | Gallardo,Yovani | SP | SEA | M | -ER | |||||
597 | -$5 | Vargas,Jason | SP | KC | M | -ER | |||||
604 | -$5 | Lewis,Colby | SP | FAA | M | -ER | |||||
678 | -$6 | Garza,Matt | SP | MIL | M | -ER | |||||
683 | -$6 | Mitchell,Bryan | SP | NYY | M | -ER | e | ||||
394 | -$1 | Tilson,Charlie | 8o | CHW | M | SB | AV | EX | |||
441 | -$2 | Phelps,David | rp | MIA | e | k | |||||
498 | -$3 | Perkins,Glen | rp | MIN | e | k | |||||
709 | -$7 | Lyons,Tyler | rp | STL | e | k | e | ||||
999 | -$10 | McAllister,Zach | rp | CLE | e | k | |||||
999 | -$10 | Gearrin,Cory | rp | SF | e | k | e | ||||
599 | -$5 | Grilli,Jason | rp | TOR | K+ | ||||||
408 | -$1 | Quinn,Roman | o | PHI | S+ | EX | |||||
297 | $2 | D Arnaud,Travis | 2 | NYM | M | ||||||
305 | $2 | Mesoraco,Devin | 2 | CIN | M | ||||||
379 | $0 | Profar,Jurickson | 5 | TEX | M | e | |||||
571 | -$4 | Hicks,Aaron | o978 | NYY | M | ||||||
522 | -$4 | Wright,David | 5 | NYM | PW | ||||||
561 | -$4 | Austin,Tyler | 3 | NYY | PW | EX | |||||
649 | -$6 | Hamilton,Josh | 0 | TEX | PW | ||||||
659 | -$6 | Amarista,Alexi | 4 | COL | s | a | |||||
999 | -$10 | Claudio,Alexander | rp | TEX | ER | e | |||||
537 | -$4 | May,Trevor | rp | MIN | KK | e | |||||
999 | -$10 | Hatcher,Chris | rp | LA | KK | ||||||
453 | -$2 | Montero,Miguel | 2 | CHC | p | ||||||
516 | -$3 | Thompson,Trayce | o897 | LA | p | EX | |||||
582 | -$5 | Phegley,Joshua | 2 | OAK | p | e | |||||
675 | -$6 | Gutierrez,Franklin | o9 | LA | P+ | AV | |||||
999 | -$10 | Middlebrooks,Will | 5 | TEX | p | – | |||||
643 | -$6 | Santana,Daniel | o8 | MIN | SB | – | |||||
681 | -$6 | Lagares,Juan | o8 | NYM | SB | ||||||
249 | $4 | Ramos,Wilson | 2 | TAM | a | ||||||
430 | -$2 | Parra,Gerardo | o7 | COL | a | ||||||
609 | -$5 | Jackson,Austin | 8o | CLE | a | ||||||
698 | -$6 | Rutledge,Josh | 5 | BOS | a | ||||||
999 | -$10 | Pena,Brayan | 2 | KC | a | ||||||
999 | -$10 | La Stella,Tommy | 5 | CHC | a | e | |||||
999 | -$10 | Duensing,Brian | rp | CHC | e | ||||||
520 | -$3 | Lowrie,Jed | 4 | OAK | M | AV | |||||
412 | -$1 | Wheeler,Zack | SP | NYM | k | ||||||
430 | -$2 | Bailey,Homer | SP | CIN | k | ||||||
643 | -$6 | Montas,Frankie | rp | OAK | k | EX | |||||
999 | -$10 | Chafin,Andrew | rp | ARI | k | e | |||||
999 | -$10 | Rasmus,Cory | rp | TAM | k | ||||||
999 | -$10 | Rodriguez,Fernando | rp | CHC | k | ||||||
999 | -$10 | Vargas,Cesar | SP | SD | k | EX | |||||
999 | -$10 | Liberatore,Adam | rp | LA | k | e | |||||
370 | $0 | Street,Huston | rp | LAA | sv- | -ER | |||||
445 | -$2 | Altherr,Aaron | o97 | PHI | s | EX | |||||
999 | -$10 | Diaz,Elias | 2 | PIT | s | AV- | EX | ||||
557 | -$4 | Soto,Geovany | 2 | CHW | p | AV | |||||
601 | -$5 | Perez,Roberto | 2 | CLE | p | AV | e | ||||
644 | -$6 | Pham,Thomas | o87 | STL | p | AV | EX | ||||
659 | -$6 | Avila,Alex | 2 | DET | p | AV | |||||
666 | -$6 | Davidson,Matthew | 0 | CHW | p | AV | EX | ||||
727 | -$7 | Tucker,Preston | 0o | HOU | p | AV | e | ||||
999 | -$10 | Van Slyke,Scott | o | LA | p | AV | e | ||||
999 | -$10 | Ruggiano,Justin | o | SF | p | AV | |||||
999 | -$10 | Stubbs,Drew | o | MIN | SB | AV |
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), Er (Pitching Effectiveness), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves potential)
LIABILITIES: Av (Batting Ineffectiveness), Er (Pitching Ineffectiveness), Ex (Experience)
The first takeaway from this list is that you have to assume that the marketplace is discounting every one of these players. The extent of the discount will vary, but it’s all pretty much subjective. A Yu Darvish, who performed well at the end of last year, will not be discounted as much as a Giancarlo Stanton, who’s been sidelined for large parts of the past two years, or Lance McCullers (pictured), who has yet to put in a full healthy season.
A healthy season for any of these hobblers means that their performance will likely exceed their ADP draft price. So, perhaps we can use this as a list of potential profit opportunities. These are the players you should be following in spring training to see how healthy they are. That’s really one of the key purposes of spring training anyway.
Consider… if Lance McCullers is doing well this coming month – within the normal caveats of the caliber of competition he’ll be facing – then his ADP of 180 will start rising, as will his $7 draft price. But BABS already knows his ceiling – ER,K+ – which puts him in the same asset group as (INJ) compadre Yu Darvish, and healthier comparables like Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard. Yes, that might be shooting high – and you’ll certainly not have to pay for that level – but it provides you with a nice range of possibilities on draft day.
Of course, that is all predicated on McCullers being healthy.
Other players on this list who I think are excessively discounted include Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Alex Wood, Jung-ho Kang, Both Ross brothers, Lance Lynn, Cam Bedrosian, David Peralta, Clay Buchholz (don’t ask) and Aaron Hicks. There ya go – my Suffering Sleepers.
When it comes to looking at these players with the biggest health issues, it’s all about your risk tolerance. You have a budget for these types of players. You have to decide whether you want to expend that budget at the top end of the talent pool – where you might get the biggest discount on acquisition cost – or at the bottom where the risk is lower but so is the upside.
For the most risk averse, you might just use this as a Do Not Draft list, which is perfectly fine. It won’t guarantee that the players you draft stay healthy. But you also have to accept the risk that your league’s winning team might be the one that takes a chance on a star player on this list who puts in a full season of productive at-bats or innings.
If bidding on McCullers stops short of double-digits, I’m in.
So for the sake of discussion, let’s say that BOTH Darvish and McCullers are available in a draft of 12 H2H teams. Also, that you have Carlos Carrasco on your squad. That means you would have 3 INJ’s on your pitching staff. You recommend only 2 INJ’s for all pitchers. Given the upside of these pitchers, would you draft/keep all three?
No. That’s what risk management is all about. Upside is nice, but you’d be introducing too much risk onto your roster. If the rest of your staff was comprised of high upside, low risk pitchers — which given the caliber of these three core arms seems unlikely — then you’d have a buffer to withstand the possibility of these three missing time/underperforming. But to build a staff around all 3 of these guys is too risky for BABS.
I like the idea of risk management, but it seems like it will be very difficult to field a full pitching staff with no ERA risk, 1 Inj risk and 1 Exp risk (the targets for a 12 team AL only league).
There are 667 pitchers listed in the database. Of those 667, 108 do not have any ERA, Injury, or Experience risk. Of those 108, 68 are AL only. Of the 68 AL only pitchers, 23 are starters. That gives me a very limited target list of players from which to try and build a starting pitching staff with several of those names being highly sought after.
Do you think BABS ultimately steers you into a LIMA strategy?
Clearly. It all comes from the same analytical embryo. But you should easily be able to grab at least 3-4 of those 23 starters, then grab one with some injury risk and one with some experience risk. Then 3-4 relievers is the best you can hope for in an AL-only league. You should not even be looking at any pitcher with ERA risk. Flush them from your list.
Admittedly, easier in an auction league than a snake draft league, but you still need goals.
That’s your starting point.
Ron, in your own analysis of players and risk-tolerance do you take into consideration the type of injuries suffered by these players? Generally speaking, I tend to discount the injury liability (if not remove it) if the injury was fluky, such as a broken bone due to a HBP, which tends not to be recurring, unlike a balky hamstring or sore shoulder/elbow. BABS seemingly doesn’t account for that dynamic.
In general, no, mostly because she is not a doctor… and doesn’t play one on TV either. But the injury designator is not measuring a player’s potential to get hurt. Since it’s based on past data, it’s only measuring what HAS happened. The length and frequency of previous DL stays speak to how healthy he is NOW and what the chances are that he can perform at the level that his Assets indicate. So, yes, a HBP-induced broken bone does not necessarily indicate a propensity to get hurt in the future, but the time on the DL will still potentially have an impact on his recovery, and ultimately his numbers.
That all said, if we’re talking about a player who missed 100 games in 2015 but spent 2016 injury-free, I try to flag those and evaluate them separately.
Ron :
Am extremely surprised to see the unwavering “bullish market” on Kershaw this year, as if missing 2 months last year never happened. Health grade is down to a “D” in Forecaster,and according to forecaster, Back injuries=$10 less and opting out of surgery merely delays the inevitable. With so many red flags are you surprised to see BABS ranking this high. Does BABS differentiate types of injuries ? (back injuries for pitchers are not anywhere near as common as shoulder, or TJS). Does BABS think that there should be this theoretical $10 subtraction and has already done the calculation or does she merely see a inj-. Your Thoughts ? He really scares me this year at his price tag.
I agree, but BABS has already nicked him with an “inj-” liability. For prudent drafters, ANY liability in the first round is reason to stay away.
In my head to head league I’m looking to combine principles from BABS, Mayberry/QC (the H2H homogenius roster article on HQ posted yesterday) and the P3 plan. There is a lot of consistency with guys who have value on BABS and are core players in other strategies and the guys on multiple lists make my prime target list. There are, however, a couple of pretty big inconsistencies if I want to really try and be risk averse at the top of my auction.
Joe Votto has no BABS health risk but has a “C” health grade on HQ. Matt Carpenter has an “inj-” health grade via BABS but has a “B” health grade. What is your take on the divergences? Carp is a major value option for me and I’m nearly positive I’ll be able to get him for below-cost and Votto (OBP and SLG) is a monster and goes undervalued every year—but is he worth paying up with a “C” HQ grade, or do I drop down and target the Freeman/Eddie tier, losing the A+, but keeping the P+ (Freemen, Belt and Thames as 1B, CI and UT would be a fantastic trio of undervalued guys)? Thanks!
You are finding consistencies in the systems because all three come from the same analytic embryo. However, they each took their own development path, and some of the ratings now use different benchmarks. For instance, Mayberry has a 5-point system (ABCDF) for their reliability grades, which BABS just has 3 (INJ, inj- and nothing) so there are going to be some inconsistencies right away, regardless of how they are calculated (i.e. they each use different DL cut-offs). So, use the systems together when you can, but sometimes you are just going to have to pick one system.
Ron,
So let me get this right. Being risk averse in the 1st round using BABS would look something like this: Trout, Bryant, Arenado etc? I am having trouble finding the cohones to spend a 1st rd mid-late pick on Votto or Syndy based on their BABS ratings. I dont want to go into the first round scared, which I have been in mocks.
Find the cohones. Had you been married to the ADPs last year, you could have ended up with Stanton, McCutchen, Harper, etc. instead of reaching a little into the 2nd round and grabbing Marte, Blackmon, Votto (who actually finished 2016 ranked 13th — what are you afraid of??)
Ron :
Great column on injuries and profit, I tend to go on the other side most of the time, I look for injuries and potential huge losses,meaning rounds 1-4. This is why I asked for your take on the Kershaw situation above (2nd overall in LABR mixed is hardly my definition of “prudent drafting”)
I have a bit of a problem with the way BABS handles at least one of the players in the $30+ (dark green bracket). I would like your take on this particular player and BABS since this player is so highly regarded.
Starling Marte missed approximately 15-20% of the season last year with injury issues and only ended up with 480 or so ABs. Yes it was a $35 season, only because he absolutely maxed out his BA and Steals. His counting stats were pretty poor otherwise, he never hit the DL. If you are in a weekly lineup league how would you have ever known to start him or not.If you didn’t , you probably got less than the $35 and if you did you probably got less. To me 15-20% and with a high draft pick like this, it is significant. BABS is giving him no liablities this year despite the missed time. Is it because he never actually hit the DL. Does BABS only recognize DL stints as Injury issues.We harp on Stanton as Major Injury risk but he got 425 ABs and Cespedes has an inj- with the same # of ABs as Marte. Thanks for your time Ron, I really enjoy the site.
If you kept Marte in your lineup every week, you got your $35 worth, regardless of how many AB he put up. BABS does only look at DL days because that is the only time a player is hurt enough to be officially out. (Note that this will change in 2017 with the 10-day DL). But what happened in 2016 has little bearing on 2017. Marte got 579 AB the year before. You can’t draw conclusions about 2017 based on 2016 alone.
Ron, first of all love BABS. I’m looking forward to employing it on my 11 team NL only auction this year. As I plan for the draft I was wondering will there be updates to the data in the spreadsheet as we get closer to the draft or is it locked and loaded now? If I understand BABS the assets and liabilities should not change but playing time and possible trades could effect the list, correct? If that is the case when do you expect updates to be delivered.
Thanks,
Pat
There will be an update on March 17 that will be separate AL and NL lists. Then one final master update on March 31. Details in this Friday’s newsletter.
Ron!
Talk to me about Price! As of now he’s penciled in as one of my keepers. Still have Duffy, McCullers, Diaz, Fowler and Piscotty in the event he goes down.
Interesting to read this right after re-reading your article on “High Target Drafting”. If I understand HTD correctly, you would eliminate all of the above players from your draft pool. Do you embrace more injury risk now than in prior seasons?
It would be a significant loss, for the Red Sox, and for you. Nothing else to say.
I suppose. I wouldn’t necessarily eliminate ANY of these players from the draft pool. BABS gives you a risk budget that you can use as you see fit. If you want to spend one of your INJ spots on a high-end player, go right ahead. It all depends on your own risk tolerance. For me, I save my Liability picks for players further down the draft board, so yes, SOME of the above will be filtered out up front. But if I can get a Lance McCullers or a Mike Moustakas at a decent price, I’m in.
I meant those guys I have listed. Would you keep one over the other if I were to lose Price?
Assuming a straight Price for ? swap, I’d grab Duffy, for sure.
Well I own all the guys I mentioned currently, but keepers are due the end of the month. I have been on the fence with Myers as you know and Duffy, but with a price injury I will have to cut him and I will end up keeping both. I was also thinking about getting Votto for Myers and Diaz if I lost Price due to his red status in my league.
Great. Can I ask what will be different in the AL/NL only lists? I’ve made my own NL list from the full list and have adjusted the expected auction value based on NL only. Will the players move in tiers you have created?
Ours will probably look just like yours.
$300, 6×6 Roto. Net wins plus QS, K/bb the only different categories. I have a keeper staff of Lester $27(must keep), $18 degrom, $14 Verlander, $6 r hill, $6 Duffy, $8 paxton. Who would be the guy you’re looking to deal before the draft? Available pitching at auction is very thin. A few lima targets or pay thru the nose for kershaw, Cole, strasburg, greinke. What is your initial thought when looking at that staff, and what you look to add or trade for? Thx
ANY of these players is tradeable in the right deal. Test the market with deGrom or Hill to see who is worried about their health. Removing a Liability from your roster is a good thing. Duffy and Paxton might not be as valuable in net wins so they might be expendable. Really, it all comes down to your needs on the offense and bullpen side.
I just looked at this season’s BABS rankings for the first time, and I am concerned about her. I guess the formula is what it is, but seriously, is David Dahl really the 8th best skilled fantasy baseball player in the MLB universe? If you had the 15th pick in a fantasy draft, would you take Dahl (profit according to BABS) ahead of Paul Goldschmidt (ranked 25th overall, overvalued according to BABS)????
I have 5 keepers due on Sunday night, and I could keep Dexter Fowler at a 7th round value in a 12 team league. Without disclosing any specific proprietary info, I’ll just say that HQ projects his value to be several rounds later as the EARLIEST value. BABS says he’s a value anywhere after 21st pick overall (2nd round). I’m confused. To keep or not to keep.
Looking at the BABS rankings in a vacuum defeats the purpose of the system. OF COURSE you would not take Dahl ahead of Goldschmidt. The point is, you don’t have to because Dahl’s market value is so much lower. So you draft him closer to his market value and take the profit. As far as Fowler, “anywhere after the 21st pick” does NOT mean the 22nd pick. It means closer to his MARKET value.
Okay, it’s starting to come back to me now. Apparently I have to re-read the book to refresh my memory of how BABS really works. It seemed to me that last year’s list was a little more reasonable to me in my “old way of thinking”, with more big name players at the top of the list. It just doesn’t look right to have someone like Dahl, among others, listed ahead of Goldschmidt, on ANY kind of baseball skills list.
And again, I understand the formula is what it is to measure skills, not necessarily results, but it just doesn’t look right to have a guy with 21 and 32 SBs over the last 2 years respectively, and 103 and 106 runs scored respectively, but not have any kind of Speed rating. It doesn’t seem to make sense that a 5 category stat guy doesn’t have 3 category skills.
Is there an idea of when the NL only values will be made public or is it only mixed this year? Thanks!
March 17. It’s all in the weekly newsletter.
Nice! Which weekly newsletter? I must be missing it
Just checked and you are on the email list. Newsletter goes out every Friday morning. Check your spam folder.
Doh! I am looking on the site for it. Got it – thanks Ron!
Hey, while I got you….keeper question.
NL only, long running league, smart guys. 12-13 teams, traditional 5×5 but we do allow 3 ALers per team just because! End of year you can keep 4 guys for +$5 and transition one which means everyone can bid and we can take the highest bid to Accept and keep him or Decline and they do.
Arenado $22 – $20+ savings
Shwarber $11 – $15+ savings
Oh $7 – $12+ savings
Swanson $6 – $8+ savings
Kershaw $36 – $10 savings (I will touch on this later)
Braun – $27 – even
D. Gordon $23 – even
Caveats – For years we had Stanton and Harper who did not meet our expectations until we traded them as their price went up – go figure. Harper was moved for Gordon year before last – so I want to transition him for old times sake because I feel it was not a good trade in hindsight (dumb logic I know) and also because I know two teams will go $45 on Kershaw so I do NOT want to transition him but I do not feel it is appropriate to keep him given the other studs.
Also – just assume I know the league well and the prices I indicated are true. What 4 would you keep?
My idea is that Arenado, Swanson and Schwarber are must’s because of age and the small increase of $5 per year. Braun you kick out. So, that leaves Oh, Kershaw and Gordon. One to keep, one to transtion.
I already tried to make trades – no luck.
Who would you keep?
Kick out Oh. With so few keepers, you don’t waste a spot on a closer. Keep Kershaw.
Good point! Sorry for long question – thanks!
Hi Ron and readers—
For those questions arising as to types and severity of injuries in BABS INJ and inj-liabilities, I find the Forecaster’s 5-year Injury Log on pages 201-215 invaluable.
Also, because Brandon Drury went to high school down the street from where I live, I’ve followed his career (and own him on both my NL-only teams). Those at First Pitch Arizona 2015 may recall that I touted him in the late-round draft exercise there. I double-checked the DL Log and confirmed my recollection that he’s never been on the MLB DL, so there may be an error in hanging an INJ on my #1 home-boy. 😉