Interesting 3B profit options, even at the top
Third base is another position with sufficient power and batting average sources. It runs about 20 deep in multi-asset players, which means most mixed leaguers should have no problem finding a solid contributor. What is most noteworthy is that there are several high-end asset groups with interesting profit opportunities. That makes 3B a position where you may not have to reach for a top performer, or at worst, have some decent fallback options if you are willing to take on a little more risk.
Here are the BABS ratings for the third-basemen who will potentially provide some positive value to your team:
| MARKET | Asset | Liabilities | ||||||||||
| ADP | R$ | BATTER | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Av | Inj | Ex | |
| 4 | $44 | Bryant,Kris | CHC | F | P+ | AV | * | |||||
| 5 | $42 | Arenado,Nolan | COL | F | P+ | AV | ||||||
| 71 | $16 | Carpenter,Matt | STL | F | P+ | AV | * | inj- | ||||
| 8 | $37 | Machado,Manny | BAL | F | PW | AV | ||||||
| 12 | $33 | Donaldson,Josh | TOR | F | PW | AV | * | |||||
| 65 | $17 | Seager,Kyle | SEA | F | PW | AV | ||||||
| 236 | $4 | Kang,Jung-ho | PIT | F | PW | AV | INJ | e | ||||
| 79 | $15 | Beltre,Adrian | TEX | F | p | AV | ||||||
| 131 | $10 | Turner,Justin | LA | F | p | AV | ||||||
| 120 | $11 | Nunez,Eduardo | SF | F | S+ | a | ||||||
| 105 | $12 | Longoria,Evan | TAM | F | PW | a | ||||||
| 147 | $9 | Lamb,Jacob | ARI | F | PW | a | ||||||
| 207 | $6 | Castellanos,Nick | DET | F | PW | a | INJ | |||||
| 93 | $13 | Rendon,Anthony | WAS | F | p | a | ||||||
| 97 | $13 | Bregman,Alex | HOU | F | p | a | EX | |||||
| 203 | $6 | Moustakas,Mike | KC | F | p | a | INJ | |||||
| 111 | $12 | Sano,Miguel | MIN | F | P+ | * | inj- | e | ||||
| 98 | $13 | Ramirez,Jose | CLE | F | s | AV | ||||||
| 160 | $8 | Perez,Hernan | MIL | F | SB | a | – | e | ||||
| 72 | $16 | Frazier,Todd | CHW | F | PW | |||||||
| 329 | $1 | Duffy,Matt | TAM | F | s | a | INJ | |||||
| 254 | $4 | Gurriel,Yulieski | HOU | F | AV | EX | ||||||
| 275 | $3 | Solarte,Yangervis | SD | F | AV | inj- | ||||||
| 326 | $1 | Prado,Martin | MIA | F | AV | |||||||
| 443 | $(2) | Escobar,Yunel | LAA | F | AV | |||||||
| 121 | $11 | Baez,Javier | CHC | F | p | e | ||||||
| 265 | $3 | Suarez,Eugenio | CIN | F | p | |||||||
| 123 | $11 | Franco,Maikel | PHI | F | a | |||||||
| 384 | $(1) | Garcia,Adonis | ATL | F | a | – | e | |||||
| 543 | $(4) | Valbuena,Luis | LAA | M | PW | a | * | inj- | ||||
| 323 | $1 | Shaw,Travis | MIL | F | PW | AV | e | |||||
| 201 | $6 | Healy,Ryon | OAK | M | p | a | EX | |||||
| 315 | $1 | Valencia,Danny | SEA | M | p | a | ||||||
| 402 | $(1) | Flores,Wilmer | NYM | M | p | a | inj- | |||||
| 435 | $(2) | Peralta,Jhonny | STL | M | p | a | INJ | |||||
| 309 | $2 | Reyes,Jose | NYM | M | SB | a | INJ | |||||
| 393 | $(1) | Gallo,Joey | TEX | M | P+ | s | * | AV | inj- | EX | ||
| 444 | $(2) | Headley,Chase | NYY | F | ||||||||
| 574 | $(4) | Jones,JaCoby | DET | M | p | SB | AV | EX | ||||
| 499 | $(3) | Plouffe,Trevor | OAK | M | p | INJ | ||||||
| 357 | $0 | Sandoval,Pablo | BOS | M | a | INJ | ||||||
| 436 | $(2) | Gonzalez,Marwin | HOU | M | a | – | ||||||
| 477 | $(3) | Cuthbert,Cheslor | KC | M | a | e | ||||||
| 471 | $(3) | Albies,Ozhaino | ATL | SB | a | EX | ||||||
| 634 | $(5) | Torreyes,Ronald | NYY | SB | a | EX | ||||||
| 374 | $(0) | Profar,Jurickson | TEX | M | INJ | e | ||||||
| 464 | $(2) | Freese,David | PIT | M | ||||||||
| 527 | $(4) | Wright,David | NYM | PW | * | INJ | ||||||
| 0 | Delmonico,Nick | CHW | PW | s | AV | EX | ||||||
| 230 | $5 | Moncada,Yoan | CHW | p | SB | AV | EX | |||||
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help)
LIABILITIES: Av (Batting Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience)
From the very beginning, third base provides some interesting profit opportunities.
The top asset group, (P+,AV), offers the usual top picks – Bryant and Arenado – but then surprisingly sneaks in Matt Carpenter, a player who could conceivably cost upwards of $20 less or who you could draft at least four rounds later. Carpenter has displayed some interesting skills the past two years and was en route to career highs last year had he not gotten hurt and tailed late. His 11-HR, .327 surge in May-June before hitting the DL reflected the same skills profile as the 20-HR second half he posted in 2015.
So yes, there is risk, and his (inj-) liability still means you need to fit him into your budget. But the potential upside is interesting at his price point.
The next (PW,AV) asset group has profit opportunities as well. Machado (pictured) and Donaldson are the typical first-rounders but waiting a few rounds yields the comparable Kyle Seager. Most interesting is Jung-ho Kang, who offers similar assets but comes packaged with lots of major risk. He’s a 16th rounder in a 15-team mixed league (20th rounder in a 12-team league), which is a huge discount for a potential prime talent if you’re willing to take on the risk.
Last year, I drew stares when stating that Evan Longoria and Nick Castellanos were the same person (as far as I know, they’ve never been photographed tougher). Both entered 2016 with identical (PW,a) ratings yet had ADPs of 116 and 259, respectively. Castellanos was off to a career year when he broke his hand, yet he was keeping good pace with Longoria, who was having his own career year. Had Longoria posted his typical stat line, the two performances would have been indistinguishable.
Well, they are back again this year, once again sporting identical (PW,a) ratings, and only slightly closer in the ADPs (105 to 207). They are joined by Jake Lamb in that asset group. All three have the same stat potential but at different price points. Take your pick.
The (p,a) asset group has three interesting players. Anthony Rendon is the only one with no liabilities, and appears somewhat stable. Alex Bregman is going at almost exactly the same ADP, but with (EX) risk you know that he could far exceed or fall short of these levels. He’s a clear upside play. The player I find more intriguing is Mike Moustakas. Same assets as the other two, but we have to take the (INJ) risk into account. Assuming he’s healthy, he could put up comparable numbers at half the price of the other two.
There are many interesting mid-timers who could be just a pulled hammy away from a fuller-time role. Luis Valbuena (PW,a) is a regular favorite of mine who always seems to find some playing time with decent umbers. The entire (p,a) asset group is more than serviceable and provides good options for a corner infielder.
Finally, a word about Yoan Moncada. He may be baseball’s next superstar, but with the limited performance data we have, he only profiles out as a (p,SB | AV) player. That’s an interesting asset configuration, actually. There are currently no full-time players who have that rating. Among the mid-timers and part-timers, he is joined by JaCoby Jones, Melvin Upton, Chris Herrmann and Michael Taylor. That’s not too inspiring of a group. But the big “EX” on the liabilities side of his BABS ledger means the error bar around (p,SB | AV) could be huge.
I really don’t know how BABS gives Matt Carpenter a P+. He has never hit 30 HR with 28 in 2015 as his high. He has hit 74 HR in his 6 MLB seasons and is not known as a power guy. Donaldson, Machado, and K. Seager are much better power guys. He’s worthy of a PW and because he’s a four tool player, he is a better overall value than some of the big HR hitters. What say you to that?
BABS does not look at historical home run output. BABS looks at raw skills. Her power ratings look primarily at “weighted levels of hard-hit line drives and hard hit fly balls as a percentage of all balls put into play” — essentially hard contact and lift. Carpenter leans heavy as a flyball hitter with hard contact levels comparable to Nolan Arenado, David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera. For 2017, our goal is to see what his skills indicate he should be able to do rather than look back at what he’s already done.
How much do you see BABS changing between now and your final ratings? Does spring training in any way factor into your thinking (besides playing time) or are you just taking a little more time to tweak things?
I expect that, aside from playing time as you note, the individual player ratings should not change much, particularly on the asset side. I have been tweaking the injury ratings as more information comes out, and any signings/trades that have park effects will get adjusted. The part that might change the most is the ranking of the asset groups. THAT is what I am spending the most time on fine-tuning.
Quick question, Ron. Do your dollar rankings refer to a 15 team mixed, or 12 team mixed league. I realize that dollar rankings are not your “purpose” here, but have you given any thought to including dollar rankings on 12 team AL, and/or NL only leagues?????
They are all 15-team mixed values. No plans to add any other formats because, as you note, “dollar rankings are not my purpose.” If you just follow the bidding in your particular league, you don’t really need anything I post – which are just industry averages anyway.
I am likely being a little impatient. Still have time to fully absorb this. The biggest problem I am having is conversion …as when you go to the UK, you just can’t plug in your device if you are from NA. You need an adapter.
I can see some players you have listed likely fly under the radar with the BABS system. Which is good info to know. The problem is, I need an adapter to convert that information to be usable in my 12 team AL only 4×4, $260 auction.
That’s where I am hitting a road block.
It’s a little tough to help you without knowing the process you use to prepare/draft in your league. If you rely heavily on dollar values to know how much to bid, you are going to struggle here a bit. However, if you allow yourself to let go and let the market dictate, then you’ll do better. For instance, you want Bryant or Arenado, and budget $x for one of them, say $35ish. Once bidding approaches that budget amount, you need to decide whether to bid or not. If bidding hits $40, maybe you drop out, knowing that Matt Carpenter is still out there, and he might be available for half that much. Again, I don’t know if this is your issue – just speculating. Re-reading the chapter on auction leagues might help.
Something that I have always wondered, who keeps track of the line drives vs fly balls, and likewise hard hit balls vs not so hard hit balls. Is someone watching every single pitch and play and determining the outcome? And where is the dividing line?
How’s does Franco not rate more love, Ron? Apart from his injured time, the guy puts up reliable numbers across many categories particularly NL only Roto leagues. Please explain?
Yes, there are people who are employed to chart every pitch. There are rules they follow to determine how to classify each batted ball. There are also automated systems that do the same thing using cameras in each stadium.
Not sure I could classify him as “reliable” after just one full season. Franco has a barely average hard hit ball rate and his fly ball rate is sub-par – he’s actually more of a ground ball hitter. He could mature into better skills, but for now, I’d have to say his 25-HR potential is a risk.
Hey Ron I know its early and hard to say, but do you think its plausible Valbuena could reach 450 abs
I’d give him a 75% chance of reaching that level. He has the skills – note his (PW,a*) rating puts him the same class as Longoria, Castellanos and Lamb, plus he adds some OBP help. If he’s healthy, he could earn it.
Ron,
Do you see Matt Carpenter moving to the 3-hole as being a more valuable player next season than he has been from the leadoff spot as a whole? Do you like Fowler and Diaz hitting in front of him for RBI opportunities? I’m thinking of drafting him in the middle rounds.
I’m not big on lineup position, because that can be highly variable, but yes, I like Carpenter. BABS likes Carpenter. You should like Carpenter.
I like him even more now – thanks!
Maybe I am just more nervous about injuries but it doesn’t seem like injuries scare BABS much… rating Kang over Beltre because of a slight increase in power even though there is the major concern of injury seems off to me.
Do you view injury concerns as just a tie breaker within a tier?
You are mis-reading the rankings. Kang may be listed right above Beltre in the listings but he is in a completely different asset group. Kang is at the very bottom of the (PW,AV) group at an ADP spot that makes him a low cost comp for guys like Seager and Donaldson. That does not mean Kang should be drafted anywhere near there — you don’t have to, his ADP is in the 200s, thanks to just the risks you mention. But a HEALTHY, sober Kang is comparable in skill to those others in that group. Drafting him near his ADP is how you build potential profit into your roster. Beltre is in a slightly lesser skilled group but his higher draftability is tied to his better ADP/price.
Ron in a head to head points league whos skills would you value more; mondesi or moncada? Both have the power, speed combo with moncada having more power and mondesi having more speed. Is moncada really being viewed as a 3B? Do you see the whitesox playing him in the middle of the infield? Thanks Ron!
Moncada could potentially be more valuable but is more of a risk. I never attempt to speculate what a team is or is not going to do.